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08 June 2017

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FB Ali

"...The amount of oil/gas is minimal..."

According to Wikipedia, Qatar has "gas fields that account for more than 13% of the global resource."

Pakistan has a 15-year, $1 billion agreement for the import of LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) from Qatar.

Pakistan (and its ruling clan, the Sharifs) have always maintained good relations with Qatar and its ruling family. Yesterday, a special plane brought a delegation (including some royals) from Qatar to Pakistan; an interesting sidelight on internal Pakistani dynamics: the delegation first met the Punjab Premier, Shahbaz Sharif, before it went to Islamabad to see his brother, Nawaz Sharif, the Prime Minister.

Qatar has been clever in using its wealth over the years to make friends in powerful regional countries. It also allowed the US to establish a huge base on its territory for the same purpose. The Saudis and their henchmen have only limited room to push Qatar around.

b

Pat says:
"The amount of oil/gas [in Qatar] is minimal."

Way off Pat - you must have been thinking of a different place

http://www.bq-magazine.com/energy/2015/06/qatar-hydrocarbon-sector
/quote/
Qatar remains the third largest producer of natural gas in the world after the US and Russia with 5.1 percent of global production. The country is also the world’s top exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) with 31.0 percent of total global exports in 2014. This central role is a result of its large endowment of hydrocarbon reserves.

In terms of oil and gas reserves per capita, Qatar remains well ahead of the other major oil and gas producers with 83.6k barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in 2014. The revenue generated from Qatar’s hydrocarbon exports provides a stable source of financing for major infrastructure investments that are driving the growth and diversification of the domestic economy.
/endquote/

Qatar has a $350 billion national fund and only 200,000 nationals. With so much money available they can buy up a huge mercenary army if needed. They provide 90% of the gas Britain imports, it seems they own half of London too. They own lots of industry shares in Germany and other European countries. That gives them international support.

Qatar supports the Muslim Brotherhood. The hereditary dictatorships in the Gulf hate the MB because they provide an alternative Islamic government model to the kingdoms. Al Jazeera heavily promotes MB.

Turkey is the only (near) MB government left in power. If the UAE falls Erdogan will be next. That is good reason to march 10,000 Turkish soldiers onto Qatar Airways planes to confront the Saudis (if needed).

Anotherpawn

If one thing is abundantly clear, it is that Trump is not thinking. He reacts.

Kerim

According to MSNBC, Trump might not have been aware that the US has troops in Quatar...
The plot thickens
Events are slowly starting to have a life of their own

LeaNder

Interesting.

Oddly in line with TTG's "If I ever found myself faced with a decision ..." 'On the horns of a dilemma', Luther's Elefantenschluss (German)

Haven't looked more then superficially into matters or political developments lately. Family matters.

But this image in my father's daily, I thought was somewhat odd. Never mind I don't like high heals or 90% of what is on offer as shoes for females.

Do women in Katar lately protest via sneakers against the dress code?

http://www.badische-zeitung.de/nachrichten/ausland/superreich-und-ultrakonservativ--137779356.html

turcopolier

kerim

That seems plausible to me. pl

turcopolier

FB Ali, b et al

OK. I understated the amount of Qatar's gas reserves. Happy? I will correct my post. Do any of you actually think that a desire for Qatar's gas reserves is a major factor in Saudi Arabia threats toward Qatar? I do not. b - Where would this army of mercenaries come from? Saudi hired mercenaries have not done very well in Yemen. pl

turcopolier

b

You have not responded to my list of America's selfless actions on the world scene. pl

YT

Col. sir,

Pls. list 'em said selfless actions.

I have encountered self-hating white millennials who hate the US of A with such pure vehemence - smitten as they are with Ivan and the Chinks with unfair bias - thus overlooking the fact said entities too are far from sainthood or models of enlightened rule...

Such young fanatics I find nigh impossible to persuade to have a more healthy & balanced view.

Fred

b,

"... they provide an alternative Islamic government model to the kingdoms."

I suspect that's a bit more important to SA than some additional gas reserves and the incremental money those would bring in.

Babak Makkinejad

The mercenary armies of Arabs have historically been Turkic; and Erdogan is clearly aware of that history. The way it worked, Arabs brought the Turks, who eventually gained the upper hand and usurped the power.

It would not be such a bad thing if Turks take over Qatar use its wealth to upgrade the level of culture and civilization in Anatolia.

Babak Makkinejad

50 Muslims heads of state or government went to Saudi Arabia to meet with Trump. Saudis thus made a show that they have immense influence among the Muslim world, some of it real and some of it not so real.

I was astonished by the attendance of the hereditary president of Azerbaijan Republic; he seemed to have forgotten also that he was expected to be the President of the Shia Turks.

Dr.Puck

Might DJT be making early checkers game moves in preparation for moving militarily against Iran in 2018?

The Beaver

@b

you mean " If Qatar falls Erdogan will be next"
with the new administration, the French is planning to tax Qatar for capital gains on all her assets in France ( they were given a break by both Sarko and Hollande in the hope that Qatar will beef up on her purchase of military equipment)

Remember the killings and protests at Gezi Park in 2013 - Qatar wanted to build a mall/mosque in that only green area.
Plus Turkey was the middleman for the $50K paid by Qatar for any foreign jihadi to go and fight against Assad ( thus the border entry was Turkey-Northern Syria)

turcopolier

YT

I already listed'em for "b." pl

turcopolier

mauisurfer

I did not say all these selfless acts were wise, merely selfless. Grant's argument conveniently overlooks the half million Vietnamese who fought the communists and the millions who fled the country rather than live under communist rule. another communist sympathizer heard from. pl

eakens

The motivation here can be answered by asking ourselves, will the US treat a SA incursion into Qatar in the same way that we treated Hussein's move into Kuwait? Hardly.

Let's say SA moves in on Qatar. Outcome 1 is US keeps its air base and SA has more resources to sell in USD, and reinvest in weapons and treasuries. Alternate outcome for Qatar, is that they engage Iran, providing the pretext for a direct conflict with Iran.

This isn't good for the US, but it certainly checks a lot of boxes for those who have been driving our foreign policy in the ME.

turcopolier

eakens

How about this outcome - Pakistan sends expeditionary force to defend Qatar? Qatar does not seem to have any inclination to fight Iran? What are you talking about? pl

1664RM

Finally it would seem, people are beginning to smell the Java ....

Just like Syria, Libya & the Ukraine its all about the gas,

Qatar is positioning to be THE supplier of gas to the EU. It disputes one of - if not the worlds largest gas reserves - the Pars Gas Dome straddling the Arabian Gulf with none other than ... Iran.

Israel (with Leviathan & who knows what Genie is finding in the Golan & Gaza) backed by the Kingdom of Saudi & Uncle Sam might have something to say about this.

On the other side is Russia ... THE de facto supplier of gas to the EU ... Iran is keen to work with Russia to get into the EU gas market. The Ukraine was once a key gas transit node, now it could become a 'Somalia' on the EU's doorstep, this will hurt both Russia & the EU, but not the US. Main gas transit routs into the EU now via the Nord Streams 1 & 2 through the Baltic Sea & Belarus. Key terrain perhaps.

Uncle Sam is not very happy about this .... hence the 7 year demonisation of all things Putin & Russia.

Libya used to supply gas to Southern Europe ... now the country is in ruins.

For Qatar to truly become a main player in the EU gas market it must gain a gas pipeline into the EU ... thus look at what has happened to Syria, the Balkanisation of Iraq was supposed to be a precursor to the Qatar pipeline project.

Turkey ... stands to benefit from any gas pipeline deal with any of the nation state players in the EU gas game - hedging her bets perhaps.

US of A ... directed as ever by her AIPAC masters ... Qatar is now THE N01 bad guy along with Iran in the Middle East ... thanks no doubt due to the two recent visits by POTUS to Riyadh & Tel Aviv.

It's all about the gas folks! ... the rest is smoke'n mirrrors

Kooshy

Colonel, FYI I the latest partner joining the Saudi coalition against Qatar is the the island nation of Comoros, which can bring a lot of coral and nice scuba sites to the Saudi' coalition. For the records Comoros has exprinced 22 coups since its independence in1975. Nevertheless a great country to be partner with.

Kooshy

He is been dented by US long time ago, IMO, Iran and Russia can tolerate him as he is, keeping thier enemies close. IMO, most of the middle east' rulers, do not understand geography and have never studied history. One would think a politician specially a dectator one should have a minimum knowledge of these subjects. Or as Clint said (man, got to know his limitations)

John_Frank

The fight with Qatar has been brewing for some time. Not sure who is more upset with the Amir of Qatar, the King of Saudi Arabia or the Crown Prince of the United Arab Emirates.

In addition to the two tweets the President sent on June 6, which a lot of people took as his siding with the King, he also had three phone calls, one with the King of Saudi Arabia, the second to the Amir of Qatar and the third to the Crown Prince of the United Arab Emirates:

Readout of President Donald J. Trump’s Call with King Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/06/06/readout-president-donald-j-trumps-call-king-salman-bin-abdulaziz-al-saud

Readout of President Donald J. Trump’s Call with Amir Sheikh Tameem Bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/06/07/readout-president-donald-j-trumps-call-amir-sheikh-tameem-bin-hamad-al

Readout of President Donald J. Trump’s Call with Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates

Yes, it is possible that when this is all over, the Amir could kick the US out of its base in Qatar. It is also possible that the Amir could end up being kicked out of Qatar.

Meanwhile, air and ground operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria continue.

In unrelated news:

Two Men Arrested for Terrorist Activities on Behalf of Hizballah's Islamic Jihad Organization https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-men-arrested-terrorist-activities-behalf-hizballahs-islamic-jihad-organization

The arrests took place on June 1. The Justice Department released news of the arrests on June 8.

eakens

My apologies, my alternate position was that Qatar gets closer (I shouldn't have used engage) to Iran, which provides the pretext for SA to get into a military conflict with Iran. I do not think Qatar has any desire for a fight with Iran.

Do you think if SA gets into a military confrontation with Iran over Qatar, the US would jump in on the side of the Saudis, or just sit by and watch? I am doubtful it would be the latter.

wisedupearly

The elephant in the room would be a request by Qatar for an Iranian force to protect "free trade". How would Centcom like to rub shoulders with an Iranian base? Would SA accept the Iranians on their side of the gulf? Could the the Gulf states be stupid enough to tighten the blockade and travel restrictions until Qatar LNG shipments stopped? Since Qatar shares the Pars field with Iran, they could work out some sort of co-production arrangement with Iran but there would be interruptions to deliveries. People seem to want to believe that money rules everyone but culture/religion still drive countries.

John_Frank

FYI, On June 8, the State Department announced the first shipment of liquefied natural gas from a commercial supplier in Louisiana to Poland.

US welcomes arrival of first US liquefied natural gas shipment to Central Europe, which arrived in Poland on 6/7.
https://go.usa.gov/xNmfN

We will likely see more of these reports in the near future.


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