The diplomatic crisis in Qatar saw a new development Wednesday as Turkey's parliament passed legislation permitting the deployment of troops to a Turkish military base in Qatar. The legislation was drafted prior to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain severing ties with Qatar, but indicates that Turkey is willing to help the Gulf Arab country.
The bill was supported by both the governing AK party and the nationalist opposition.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated Tuesday that "Turkey will continue and will develop our ties with Qatar," adding that "we do not think the sanctions against Qatar are good." Erdogan insisted Turkey would have intervened if the sanctions of terrorist support were proved, but questioned the effectiveness of measures already taken by his Arab neighbors in isolating the small emirate. Reports of Qatar's ongoing support for regional Islamist groups, most notably the Muslim Brotherhood, and Shiite-ruled Iran, led to uneasy relations with many neighboring nations. Weekly Standard
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Well, pilgrims you can add Mauretania the list of those following Saudi Arabia's lead in this. They must be on "the dole" from Riyadh.
Qatar is a strange little place. It is really a sandbar sticking out into the Gulf. Qatar possesses large gas reserves but does anyone think that desire to possess these reserves motivates Saudi Arabia? Qatar is the only Wahhabi country other than Saudi Arabia itself. It exists because imperial Britain wanted to hold a non-Saudi piece of Wahhabi dominated "soil" in the Gulf region. Qatar realizes the weakness of its position vis a vis Saudi Arabia. The emirate is in fact if not in appearance an absolute dictatorship. I was present at a meeting at the ruler's palace in Doha in which the then emir laughed and told the group I was with that if the West wanted democracy he would create things for them to look at. He would have a parliament. He would have a "free" press (Al-Jazeera?). He said that there had been a subversive conspiracy attempting a coup recently and that he had a number of the plotters in prison. What should I do with them he asked this group of millionaires and corporate representative. I do not wish to upset "The West" too much. The response from the leader of the group was that the prisoners should receive due process. The emir then changed the subject.
Existing in such a milieu, Qatar's rulers have sought to "fireproof" themselves against a future in which Saudi Arabia decides that the Qatari mini-state's existence is unnecessary.
1. Firstly, and perhaps most importantly they have given the US the use of land including the area of the former British air base at al-udeid and enough space to position USCENTCOM's forward headquarters in theater. These facilities are very important to the US. The air war in the ME is run from al-udeid air base, not the flying necessarily, but just about all the staff functions for command and control. DJT does not seem to grasp the importance of al-udeid to the US air war.
2. The "Al-Jazeera network" is a great irritant to the autocratic states of the Arab World. It has always been such and it has been bitched about to me by rich and otherwise powerful Arabs from its creation. It is clearly under the protection of the house al-thani (the rulers of this little country). As I have said, this princely house is not IMO in any way democratic. Al-Jazeera is part of the Potemkin Village of democracy that is presented to the West by the Qatari state, but that image is helpful to them.
3. Qatar maintains a certain ambiguity with regard to its relations with Iran. It has recently chosen to emphasize that ambiguity, probably IMO in response to DJT's acceptance of his role as the mukhtar of America.
And now, in demonstration of Sultan Erdogan's ambition to one day be thought Commander of the Faithful, the Turkish parliament has provided the legal basis for Turkey to intervene militarily and politically in settlement of the present difficulty involving Saudi Arabia, its Arab allies and mukhtar Trump on the one hand with Qatar and Turkey (possibly Iran?) on the other.
Can one doubt that Turkish support for the al-thani will achieve great influence in Qatar? If so, what will be Turkey's level of influence over US use of al-udeid AFB? Without the C&C facilities at that base we would essentially be out of business in the air war. And then there is Incirlik AFB ...
What on earth does DJT think he is doing by siding with SA against Qatar? pl
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar
http://www.weeklystandard.com/turkey-approves-deploying-troops-to-qatar/article/2008364
"...The amount of oil/gas is minimal..."
According to Wikipedia, Qatar has "gas fields that account for more than 13% of the global resource."
Pakistan has a 15-year, $1 billion agreement for the import of LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) from Qatar.
Pakistan (and its ruling clan, the Sharifs) have always maintained good relations with Qatar and its ruling family. Yesterday, a special plane brought a delegation (including some royals) from Qatar to Pakistan; an interesting sidelight on internal Pakistani dynamics: the delegation first met the Punjab Premier, Shahbaz Sharif, before it went to Islamabad to see his brother, Nawaz Sharif, the Prime Minister.
Qatar has been clever in using its wealth over the years to make friends in powerful regional countries. It also allowed the US to establish a huge base on its territory for the same purpose. The Saudis and their henchmen have only limited room to push Qatar around.
Posted by: FB Ali | 08 June 2017 at 01:14 PM
Pat says:
"The amount of oil/gas [in Qatar] is minimal."
Way off Pat - you must have been thinking of a different place
http://www.bq-magazine.com/energy/2015/06/qatar-hydrocarbon-sector
/quote/
Qatar remains the third largest producer of natural gas in the world after the US and Russia with 5.1 percent of global production. The country is also the world’s top exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) with 31.0 percent of total global exports in 2014. This central role is a result of its large endowment of hydrocarbon reserves.
In terms of oil and gas reserves per capita, Qatar remains well ahead of the other major oil and gas producers with 83.6k barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in 2014. The revenue generated from Qatar’s hydrocarbon exports provides a stable source of financing for major infrastructure investments that are driving the growth and diversification of the domestic economy.
/endquote/
Qatar has a $350 billion national fund and only 200,000 nationals. With so much money available they can buy up a huge mercenary army if needed. They provide 90% of the gas Britain imports, it seems they own half of London too. They own lots of industry shares in Germany and other European countries. That gives them international support.
Qatar supports the Muslim Brotherhood. The hereditary dictatorships in the Gulf hate the MB because they provide an alternative Islamic government model to the kingdoms. Al Jazeera heavily promotes MB.
Turkey is the only (near) MB government left in power. If the UAE falls Erdogan will be next. That is good reason to march 10,000 Turkish soldiers onto Qatar Airways planes to confront the Saudis (if needed).
Posted by: b | 08 June 2017 at 01:21 PM
If one thing is abundantly clear, it is that Trump is not thinking. He reacts.
Posted by: Anotherpawn | 08 June 2017 at 01:28 PM
According to MSNBC, Trump might not have been aware that the US has troops in Quatar...
The plot thickens
Events are slowly starting to have a life of their own
Posted by: Kerim | 08 June 2017 at 02:15 PM
Interesting.
Oddly in line with TTG's "If I ever found myself faced with a decision ..." 'On the horns of a dilemma', Luther's Elefantenschluss (German)
Haven't looked more then superficially into matters or political developments lately. Family matters.
But this image in my father's daily, I thought was somewhat odd. Never mind I don't like high heals or 90% of what is on offer as shoes for females.
Do women in Katar lately protest via sneakers against the dress code?
http://www.badische-zeitung.de/nachrichten/ausland/superreich-und-ultrakonservativ--137779356.html
Posted by: LeaNder | 08 June 2017 at 02:24 PM
kerim
That seems plausible to me. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 08 June 2017 at 02:33 PM
FB Ali, b et al
OK. I understated the amount of Qatar's gas reserves. Happy? I will correct my post. Do any of you actually think that a desire for Qatar's gas reserves is a major factor in Saudi Arabia threats toward Qatar? I do not. b - Where would this army of mercenaries come from? Saudi hired mercenaries have not done very well in Yemen. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 08 June 2017 at 02:39 PM
b
You have not responded to my list of America's selfless actions on the world scene. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 08 June 2017 at 02:41 PM
Col. sir,
Pls. list 'em said selfless actions.
I have encountered self-hating white millennials who hate the US of A with such pure vehemence - smitten as they are with Ivan and the Chinks with unfair bias - thus overlooking the fact said entities too are far from sainthood or models of enlightened rule...
Such young fanatics I find nigh impossible to persuade to have a more healthy & balanced view.
Posted by: YT | 08 June 2017 at 02:54 PM
b,
"... they provide an alternative Islamic government model to the kingdoms."
I suspect that's a bit more important to SA than some additional gas reserves and the incremental money those would bring in.
Posted by: Fred | 08 June 2017 at 03:03 PM
The mercenary armies of Arabs have historically been Turkic; and Erdogan is clearly aware of that history. The way it worked, Arabs brought the Turks, who eventually gained the upper hand and usurped the power.
It would not be such a bad thing if Turks take over Qatar use its wealth to upgrade the level of culture and civilization in Anatolia.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 08 June 2017 at 03:41 PM
50 Muslims heads of state or government went to Saudi Arabia to meet with Trump. Saudis thus made a show that they have immense influence among the Muslim world, some of it real and some of it not so real.
I was astonished by the attendance of the hereditary president of Azerbaijan Republic; he seemed to have forgotten also that he was expected to be the President of the Shia Turks.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 08 June 2017 at 03:43 PM
Might DJT be making early checkers game moves in preparation for moving militarily against Iran in 2018?
Posted by: Dr.Puck | 08 June 2017 at 03:52 PM
@b
you mean " If Qatar falls Erdogan will be next"
with the new administration, the French is planning to tax Qatar for capital gains on all her assets in France ( they were given a break by both Sarko and Hollande in the hope that Qatar will beef up on her purchase of military equipment)
Remember the killings and protests at Gezi Park in 2013 - Qatar wanted to build a mall/mosque in that only green area.
Plus Turkey was the middleman for the $50K paid by Qatar for any foreign jihadi to go and fight against Assad ( thus the border entry was Turkey-Northern Syria)
Posted by: The Beaver | 08 June 2017 at 04:32 PM
YT
I already listed'em for "b." pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 08 June 2017 at 04:58 PM
mauisurfer
I did not say all these selfless acts were wise, merely selfless. Grant's argument conveniently overlooks the half million Vietnamese who fought the communists and the millions who fled the country rather than live under communist rule. another communist sympathizer heard from. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 08 June 2017 at 05:01 PM
The motivation here can be answered by asking ourselves, will the US treat a SA incursion into Qatar in the same way that we treated Hussein's move into Kuwait? Hardly.
Let's say SA moves in on Qatar. Outcome 1 is US keeps its air base and SA has more resources to sell in USD, and reinvest in weapons and treasuries. Alternate outcome for Qatar, is that they engage Iran, providing the pretext for a direct conflict with Iran.
This isn't good for the US, but it certainly checks a lot of boxes for those who have been driving our foreign policy in the ME.
Posted by: eakens | 08 June 2017 at 05:05 PM
eakens
How about this outcome - Pakistan sends expeditionary force to defend Qatar? Qatar does not seem to have any inclination to fight Iran? What are you talking about? pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 08 June 2017 at 05:28 PM
Finally it would seem, people are beginning to smell the Java ....
Just like Syria, Libya & the Ukraine its all about the gas,
Qatar is positioning to be THE supplier of gas to the EU. It disputes one of - if not the worlds largest gas reserves - the Pars Gas Dome straddling the Arabian Gulf with none other than ... Iran.
Israel (with Leviathan & who knows what Genie is finding in the Golan & Gaza) backed by the Kingdom of Saudi & Uncle Sam might have something to say about this.
On the other side is Russia ... THE de facto supplier of gas to the EU ... Iran is keen to work with Russia to get into the EU gas market. The Ukraine was once a key gas transit node, now it could become a 'Somalia' on the EU's doorstep, this will hurt both Russia & the EU, but not the US. Main gas transit routs into the EU now via the Nord Streams 1 & 2 through the Baltic Sea & Belarus. Key terrain perhaps.
Uncle Sam is not very happy about this .... hence the 7 year demonisation of all things Putin & Russia.
Libya used to supply gas to Southern Europe ... now the country is in ruins.
For Qatar to truly become a main player in the EU gas market it must gain a gas pipeline into the EU ... thus look at what has happened to Syria, the Balkanisation of Iraq was supposed to be a precursor to the Qatar pipeline project.
Turkey ... stands to benefit from any gas pipeline deal with any of the nation state players in the EU gas game - hedging her bets perhaps.
US of A ... directed as ever by her AIPAC masters ... Qatar is now THE N01 bad guy along with Iran in the Middle East ... thanks no doubt due to the two recent visits by POTUS to Riyadh & Tel Aviv.
It's all about the gas folks! ... the rest is smoke'n mirrrors
Posted by: 1664RM | 08 June 2017 at 05:50 PM
Colonel, FYI I the latest partner joining the Saudi coalition against Qatar is the the island nation of Comoros, which can bring a lot of coral and nice scuba sites to the Saudi' coalition. For the records Comoros has exprinced 22 coups since its independence in1975. Nevertheless a great country to be partner with.
Posted by: Kooshy | 08 June 2017 at 06:39 PM
He is been dented by US long time ago, IMO, Iran and Russia can tolerate him as he is, keeping thier enemies close. IMO, most of the middle east' rulers, do not understand geography and have never studied history. One would think a politician specially a dectator one should have a minimum knowledge of these subjects. Or as Clint said (man, got to know his limitations)
Posted by: Kooshy | 08 June 2017 at 06:55 PM
The fight with Qatar has been brewing for some time. Not sure who is more upset with the Amir of Qatar, the King of Saudi Arabia or the Crown Prince of the United Arab Emirates.
In addition to the two tweets the President sent on June 6, which a lot of people took as his siding with the King, he also had three phone calls, one with the King of Saudi Arabia, the second to the Amir of Qatar and the third to the Crown Prince of the United Arab Emirates:
Readout of President Donald J. Trump’s Call with King Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/06/06/readout-president-donald-j-trumps-call-king-salman-bin-abdulaziz-al-saud
Readout of President Donald J. Trump’s Call with Amir Sheikh Tameem Bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/06/07/readout-president-donald-j-trumps-call-amir-sheikh-tameem-bin-hamad-al
Readout of President Donald J. Trump’s Call with Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates
Yes, it is possible that when this is all over, the Amir could kick the US out of its base in Qatar. It is also possible that the Amir could end up being kicked out of Qatar.
Meanwhile, air and ground operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria continue.
In unrelated news:
Two Men Arrested for Terrorist Activities on Behalf of Hizballah's Islamic Jihad Organization https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-men-arrested-terrorist-activities-behalf-hizballahs-islamic-jihad-organization
The arrests took place on June 1. The Justice Department released news of the arrests on June 8.
Posted by: John_Frank | 08 June 2017 at 07:20 PM
My apologies, my alternate position was that Qatar gets closer (I shouldn't have used engage) to Iran, which provides the pretext for SA to get into a military conflict with Iran. I do not think Qatar has any desire for a fight with Iran.
Do you think if SA gets into a military confrontation with Iran over Qatar, the US would jump in on the side of the Saudis, or just sit by and watch? I am doubtful it would be the latter.
Posted by: eakens | 08 June 2017 at 07:24 PM
The elephant in the room would be a request by Qatar for an Iranian force to protect "free trade". How would Centcom like to rub shoulders with an Iranian base? Would SA accept the Iranians on their side of the gulf? Could the the Gulf states be stupid enough to tighten the blockade and travel restrictions until Qatar LNG shipments stopped? Since Qatar shares the Pars field with Iran, they could work out some sort of co-production arrangement with Iran but there would be interruptions to deliveries. People seem to want to believe that money rules everyone but culture/religion still drive countries.
Posted by: wisedupearly | 08 June 2017 at 07:28 PM
FYI, On June 8, the State Department announced the first shipment of liquefied natural gas from a commercial supplier in Louisiana to Poland.
US welcomes arrival of first US liquefied natural gas shipment to Central Europe, which arrived in Poland on 6/7.
https://go.usa.gov/xNmfN
We will likely see more of these reports in the near future.
Posted by: John_Frank | 08 June 2017 at 07:51 PM