A few thoughts on the leaks - TTG

I had every intention to post something last night concerning the leaked NSA report on Russian election hacking, the oddly named young alleged leaker and the possible motivations behind her action. But I faced a dilemma. Even though the NSA document has been widely published, it is still classified. I no longer hold an active security clearance, but I am still legally bound by the many security agreements I have signed over the years. Technically speaking, I am not supposed to be reading or hearing about this latest leaked NSA report or commenting upon it except in the most circumspect manner. For anyone else here who has signed one of these ubiquitous security agreements at some time in your life, this is something to keep in mind.

On the other hand, I have solemnly sworn to support and defend the Constitution against all enemies. I took this oath before God. I pledged my life and sacred honor. If I ever found myself faced with a decision to go with a solemnly sworn oath before God or my signature on a legal agreement, I certainly hope I would choose my sacred honor and loving God over the penalties of the US legal code, no matter how severe those penalties might be. But more on this later. Here’s my comments on some questions raised by some of our correspondents.

1.  Why did Reality Winner have access to this document? Reality probably was first processed for a TS clearance shortly after she began training as an Air Force linguist and before she was assigned to NSA at Fort Meade as a linguist. As such, she was given an account on NSANet. This TS/SCI intranet gives analysts broad access to practically all intelligence information within NSA and across many other IC agencies. This wide ranging access came about because of unexamined advances in information technology and the deliberate decision to eliminate the stove piping of intelligence as a post-9/11 intelligence reform. Very little remains behind the walls of need-to-know besides HUMINT operational data and designated SAPs. 

This became a real problem with cyber operations and cyber reporting. This reporting often required detailed and specific data to be of use to network defenders. If these reports were available in the existing intelligence reporting databases, any analyst could access it. When I was setting up my last collection outfit, I was advised by a high level CIA tech dude to make my reporting limited distribution outside the normal reporting system from the git go. Otherwise some bonehead analyst who thought they were a 1337 cyber-sleuth would start investigating from his NIPRNet box and blow the operation. I ended up establishing a reporting system that was technologically decades out of date but still responsive to the needs of my customers. Perhaps a certain amount of stove piping will come back into vogue.

2.  Why did a contract linguist have a TS/SCI clearance? Almost every job in the IC requires a TS/SCI clearance as a minimum requirement. Almost every building is a SCIF. This is especially true at the NSA. Even some of the cleaning staff have TS/SCI clearances, but no IT system access. The alternative is to stop over-classifying everything or make due with far fewer TS/SCI cleared personnel. I don’t see either happening anytime soon.

3.  Is this a real NSA document? Unless the FBI arrest warrant is also a total fabrication, the document is real. The FBI states so in the warrant. The Intercept also redacted parts of the document at the request of the NSA when it became apparent that it was going to be published. If it was fake, the NSA would have just blown off the Intercept reporter. 

Many will continue to insist this document is fake along with every other piece of information about the “Russians tried to hack the election” thing. It’s all part of the vast snowflake conspiracy to get Trump out of office, just like the USG was behind the 9/11 attacks and the Sandy Hook shooting was a hoax perpetrated by Obama in an effort to take all our firearms. I can't help you.

4.  Did this and other illegal leaks damage our collection capability? I have no doubt the sum total of information that has been made public concerning the Russian info op has degraded our capabilities to collect against the Russian target. However, I believe Obama’s personal warning to Putin in September 2016, his “red phone” warning to Putin along with the expulsion of 35 Russian officials in December 2016 and the 6 January 2017 DNI report tipped Putin to holes in his commo systems. As soon as I heard our government accuse Putin of being behind the DNC hacks, I knew we were deep in their shit. All that didn’t come about because of the CrowdStrike malware report. The illegal leaks were just icing on the cake. 

5.  What was Reality Winner thinking? Damned good question. If she thought she was going to be a protected whistle blower, she was hopelessly mistaken. Her stunt will end up costing her ten years of her life. Perhaps she thought she could outfox the NSA and FBI and get away with it. Given her background, she should have known better. She hated Trump and the Republican agenda. Maybe in her naiveté, she thought this small act would help in stopping Trump and the Republicans. That’s hardly seems worth ten years of her life.    

There’s another possibility. This may apply to Winner and to the other illegal leakers. There is a real possibility that Russia made a deliberate and concerted effort to disrupt our electoral process in the run up to the 2016 election. Based on my experience with Russian info ops, I believe this happened. I do not know it happened because I don’t have access to the intelligence. I don’t appreciate others trying to give me illegal access to this intelligence. I still have faith in the system to weather this storm and do the right thing. 

What the Russians did was not a crime against humanity or an act of war. Compared to what we did to Ukraine, it was elegant and bloodless. No, it was just hardball international politics and I don’t begrudge them for trying. But I do want them to know that any effort to try anything like this again will be quickly discovered and it will cost them more than they hoped to gain. 

But Russian info ops do not constitute a crisis requiring illegal leaking of classified information. If Trump and/or those around him colluded with the Russians in the execution of this info op, I want them and the Russians spanked hard. If the Trump administration is actively seeking to suppress the investigation and protect the Russians, I want them spanked. Either of these cases would mean that the reins of power are currently in the hands of enemies of the Constitution. Although I have faith that our system can deal with this possibility, perhaps Winner and other leakers lack this faith. Perhaps, as misguided as this is, they choose to honor their sworn oaths to the Constitution rather than their signature on a legal agreement. It doesn’t matter. If caught and tried they will all probably face prison time... that is unless they are high level muckety-mucks

TTG

 

Comments

[turcopolier]

tel

"if the US government really does know the names of the people involved... why not confront Putin with that?" Unlike Australia the US has a government with three separate and equal branches at the federal level. There is no single "US government" in the sense that you imply. pl

[robt willmann]

The preliminary fight card to the main event tomorrow played out this morning (7 June) before the U.S. Senate "Select" Committee on Intelligence. The cable television networks carried it live. Appearing were NSA Director Admiral Mike Rogers, who looked as if he did not want to be there and was trying to avoid cussing like a sailor at the assembled senators; Director of National Intelligence and former senator Dan Coats, who seems to be a nice man and is still in the process of learning doctrines and methods about surveillance; Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who appears to be working an angle more than just covering his derriere by passing the buck to Robert Mueller for the Russia investigation that dropped in his lap after Attorney General Jeff Sessions recused himself; and acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe, whose attitude fit a street slang term that should not be said in the presence of ladies.

After the witnesses said they could not talk about meetings they may have had with president Trump, and the session ended, the committee released the written, prepared testimony of former FBI Director James Comey for tomorrow, in which he talks about meetings and conversations with Trump!--

https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/os-jcomey-060817.pdf

https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/hearings/open-hearing-former-director-james-comey-fbi

After Comey's prepared testimony was released, the performers on the cable TV networks were panting with ecstasy reading and talking about it.

But that was not all in the bureaucratic jungle warfare for the day. Trump announced that he was going to appoint Christopher Wray to be the new FBI Director. Wray had been the chief of the criminal division of the Justice Department from 2003-2005 when Bush jr. was president and was appointed by him, and his boss in the organizational chart was Deputy Attorney General James Comey! Wray then went into private practice doing the well-paying "white collar" criminal defense work, in the course of which he represented New Jersey Governor Chris Christie in the "Bridgegate" investigation, who was not charged with a crime in that episode.--

https://www.justice.gov/criminal/history/assistant-attorneys-general/christopher-a-wray

http://www.cosmopolitan.com/politics/a9988661/christopher-wray-fbi-nominee-facts/

https://www.justice.gov/agencies/chart

Then, to top it off, a group called the Great America Alliance, co-chaired by Newt Gingrich and Rudy Giuliani, and designed to promote president Trump's agenda, has released a 30-second ad trying to dirty up James Comey before his appearance tomorrow!--

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgRQRWrhfYs

http://www.gingrichproductions.com/2017/01/gingrich-giuliani-to-lead-group-pushing-trumps-agenda/

Although this spectacle may be fun to watch, it is a sad caricature of domestic politics and media in the face of the real problems that plague us.

[mauisurfer]

Celebrations today in Israel commemorating 50th anniversary of
Israel's napalming and machine gunning USS Liberty, killing 34 USA sailors, injuring 174, nearly sinking the ship.
One of the greatest ironies is that a Russian navy ship was first to come alongside and offer aid!
Khalidi reviews how Israel became master of USA under LBJ, in contrast to Ike who had no problem rebuking Israel in Suez in 1956.
https://consortiumnews.com/2017/05/21/not-remembering-the-uss-liberty/
https://www.thenation.com/article/israeli-american-hammer-lock-palestine/

[iowa steve]

Well, there's no money in it for the tech vendors so it won't happen, but the best voting system is paper ballots hand-counted in public. Germany does it. Canada does it at least for their federal elections.

[Jack]

TTG, Sir

"If caught and tried they will all probably face prison time... that is unless they are high level muckety-mucks"

Since the high level muckety-mucks can commit espionage with impunity, do you believe that our adversaries will focus on recruiting there?

The most sensitive US secret, our ability to intercept and decrypt Russian secure communication has been disclosed. Apparently by some high level muckety-muck. Who were they an agent of? The Russians? Or was it par for the course in terms of our domestic politics and political appointees at the highest level?

[Fred]

FredW,

Or her people were incompetent.

[different clue]

Stumpy,

Legal Paper Ballots would be the most protected-in-the-first-instance system. In Michigan we have Opti-Scan. Yes it is digitally read and counted. But the actual ballot is physically cast by the analog voter on analog paperboard with an analog ink pen. If the subsequent reading of the votes or tabulation of the results is so digitally fraudulent as to set off alarm bells which cannot be denied, the Legal Paper Ballots could be gone back to and counted.

If I am reminded of all the ways that physical meatspace analog-marks-on-analog-paper elections can also be fraudulated, and have been; I would have to throw up my hands and say: very well. Let's hire the Canadians to run our election and have the Carter Center work with them and observe them at every step of the way.

[TV]

You don't really think that these airhead millennials know what a library is, do you?
They're products of an "education" system in which everyone gets "A"'s and the core curriculum is hatred of "racist" America.

[Degringolade]

TTG:

Thanks you for an excellent work on the ethics and morals of a difficult and contradictory part of life. The duties and loyalties necessary for an effective intelligence service.

English Outsider:

I wish to thank you for one of best overall comments to a post I have seen here at SST. While not at all denigrating the excellent original piece by TTG, your piece complements and expands the thought that makes the discussion as worthwhile as any work here.

Kudos to both...well done

[fasteddiez]

TV. Your riposte is a tad on the harsh side. As with the Boomers and Gen-Xers who received scorn for one reason or another, one must realize that these are not behavioral cohorts, but age cohorts, the millenials' hipsters and snowflakes notwithstanding.

[The Twisted Genius]

Marcus,

I have written quite often about the indiscriminate surveillance of US citizens by our government. From the beginning, I thought Snowden did us all a favor even though it was clearly illegal leaking. Here's a handy guide to my obsession.

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2015/12/hypocrisy-and-the-surveillance-hawks-ttg.html
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2015/09/fbi-intel-chiefs-decry-deep-cynicism-over-cyber-spying-programs-ttg.html
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2015/05/us-senate-to-let-nsa-spy-program-lapse-at-least-for-now-ttg.html
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2015/05/endthisdragnet-ttg.html
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2015/05/the-lives-of-others-revisited-ttg.html
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2013/11/is-nsa-screwing-the-pooch-ttg.html#more
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2013/07/collect-it-all-ttg.html
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2013/06/the-lives-of-others-ttg.html

[fanto]

EO,
Wonderful comment; especially the "...Since information shared with a great number of people is always vulnerable to leaks that means that a certain degree of slippage has to be accepted..."
I recently have found a book by de Gramont, "Secret War" from 1963; in this the NSA first huge loss of secrets was due to two intelligent homosexuals, who fled to the Soviet Union. There is no way to fool statistics - among say 10,000 people you will find some who will spill the beans. The Brits had their Cambridge Five (or Six?), the US had their atomic bomb secrets knows to Stalin in Potsdam, before Truman told him; The Soviets had their Penkovsky. Statistics do no lie.

[Harlan Easley]

If she is smart then she should request a jury trial. She is plainly guilty but the politics in this country are viper poisonous right now. It would only take 1 or 2 strong willed Democrats on the jury trial to produce a hung jury. Of course we are talking about Georgia. My state. Rural jury conviction. City jury hung. I'm sure a pretty lenient plea deal will be offered because of this. I say she gets off with 3 years which at 25 probably seems like a long time.

[The Twisted Genius]

Simplicius,

There is a simple truth about Russian and Chinese cyber operations that you and most Americans have not been able to grasp. Both these countries use vast armies of unorganized and semi-organized patriotic hackers to further their national goals. Control over these hackers is loose and unconventional and they are not supplied with government code to conduct their hacking. Collection against this kind of cyber target offers unique challenges. This concept is alien to Western cyber forces which is strictly hierarchical and centrally controlled.

[fanto]

James,
"... 'why is the usa hell bent on demonizing russia?' it is like russia took away the usa's lollipop or something.. for that, they must be demonized 24/7..."
I think you touch a raw point here. Ukraine and especially the Crimean peninsula may perhaps be a secret "plan B" for the Israelis who will get over short or long tired of living in hostile region. More on this you can find in the chapter "California in the Crimea" in the book by Sudoplatov "Special Tasks".

[Gene O.]

Fred:

She will get one of those country club federal prisons - teach yoga to the other cons, indulge her enthusiasm for fitness, give interviews, and write a book.

Oh, and she will be paroled after serving one third of her sentence.

[Walrus]

with respect, Australia is Westminster system and has had separation of the powers since establishment. The government cannot give orders to the judiciary and I know plenty of judges who use earthy language should anyone try to influence them. our high court has constitutional interpretation powers exactly like the U. S. supreme court.

[The Twisted Genius]

Stumpy,

DEFCON will be targeting voting machines this year as their major research project. It should be interesting.

[walrus]

My guess is that Trump wants to make an example of her pour encourager les autres. The Democrats will try to make a heroine out of her. Fat chance.

[LondonBob]

I would be interested to know what the Russians did to influence the election. Also how did this compare to the attempts to influence the election by other parties such as the Ukrainians smearing Manafort, Steele's dodgy dossier, the Atlantic Council, various foreign media smearing Trump etc. acting on behalf of Clinton. Surely this should be of deep concern?

https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/debunking-russiagate-part-1-7cca3eb88ffa

Sorry snowflakes you have had months to come up with something concrete and still nothing.

[LondonBob]

If you believe, like me, that the Russia thing was invented to cover up Obama's illegal spying on domestic political opponents then sure why not, anything to save their own necks.

[Seamus Padraig]

Snowden first went to Hong Kong, asking for asylum. He left because the Chinese turned him down.

[1664RM]

I am so tired of reading all this S*1T.

My own personal opinion; & like an arsehole - everybody has one - is that this is all part of one gigantic smokescreen to cover the reality ...

HRC & Obama are guilty of TREASON .... in that as SoS HRC DELIBERATELY & WILLFULLY conducted her State Dept business on private & personal IT systems using non approved software & hardware in direct contravention of the very rules & procedures that she, as SoS was responsible for implementing.

Obama as the POTUS at the time was also guilty as he, by association & by role would have received countless electronic communications from his SoS during her tenure, all addressed from her private & personal IT systems using non approved software & hardware in direct contravention of the very rules & procedures that he, as POTUS & CinC had ultimate responsibility for.

This issue is probably the LARGEST SIGINT breach of our generation - probably since ENIGMA.

It involved the disclosure of real-time positional information on friendly forces positions & future intentions, in addition to that of several terrorist networks.

This action would have directly endangered the lives of both US & allied service men & women at the very tip of the spear.

Coupled with this is the illegal military action against Libya ... HRC was a key actor in this debacle. Buried deep inside this is tangles web are the rat lines of weapon resupply & the clandestine avenues of support from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, The Emirates & most of the leading NATO States, namely France, The UK & Germany.

Then there are the nefarious actions of the Clinton Foundation, the DNC & HRC & the blatant actions against Sanders during the Democratic Primaries.

What we are seeing now folks is one humongous smoke & mirrors campaign designed to fatigue our minute attention span & divert our attention away from that which is sitting in plain sight.

Its so simple.

[Marcus]

Thanks for those references TTG. Very good reading as a package. Just about halfway through I had the thought that we could use an updated Doctor Strangelove movie as a cultural marker--when up pops the beautiful image of that brilliant character! When faced with irrational avarice the appropriate attitude is as an "irrational hater." The phrase "paranoid authoritarianism " is ringing clearer today than then.

[pantaraxia]

Leaked NSA Report Short on Facts, Proves Little in ‘Russiagate’ Case - Scott Ritter
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/leaked_nsa_report_short_on_facts_proves_little_in_russiagate_case_20170607

Scott Ritter provides a detailed analysis based on the chart from the NSA document. His conclusion:

“Nothing in the document’s confirmed information links it to the GRU. The GRU attribution is presented for contextual purposes only. It is an inferred command relationship to a redacted cyberoperations management capability that is linked to the confirmed cyberoperators only through analysis (i.e., best guess), not fact.

The NSA document, both in its title and text, is therefore misleading in the extreme. There is simply no fact-based information provided in the report that confirms that the events reported on were being organized and managed by the Russian GRU, despite the document’s assertions otherwise.”

and Ritter’s overall assessment of ‘Russiagate’:

“By allegedly leaking a highly classified NSA document, Winner has provided the American public with its first unvarnished look at what the true state of affairs is regarding the specific intelligence underpinning one of the foundational accusations that have been leveled against Russia today. In short, there is no quality intelligence that implicates the GRU as being behind the APT 28-“Cozy Bear” cyberattacks on the DNC and American electoral system. The Russian threat has been exposed as a phantom menace.

It can now be clearly shown that any such attribution is purely speculative in nature, derived from the politically motivated and fundamentally flawed analysis conducted by a private company, CrowdStrike, which was subsequently adopted by the FBI before becoming a part of a national narrative that has been placed out of bounds when it comes to serious inquiry by a media that seems to have forgotten its responsibility to report fact-based truth, regardless of consequence“.