Sic Semper Tyrannis

"... To Repeal A War Authorization" Buzzfeed

 

"In a move that shocked many in Congress, a House subcommittee adopted an amendment on Thursday that would repeal the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force, the law that US administrations have used as the legal basis for multiple wars in the Middle East over the past 16 years.

The House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee voted overwhelmingly to adopt an amendment from Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee of California to repeal the 2001 AUMF, the 60-word war authorization Congress passed after 9/11 to allow the US to fight the perpetrators of the terrorist attacks. Since then, the law has been used as the legal justification for everything from the 2011 NATO intervention in Libya, to the ongoing fight against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

The adoption of the amendment does not mean the 2001 AUMF has been repealed, as that would need to be agreed upon by both the House and Senate, and then signed by President Trump. But the amendment is now included in a defense spending bill, which puts it on a path to be wrapped into a massive funding bill to avoid a government shutdown in September. If the amendment remains in place — and is not pulled out by the House or Senate in the meantime — Congress and the president would have to choose between maintaining the AUMF and shutting down the government.

Regardless of how it plays out, the amendment's overwhelming approval on Thursday signals a growing frustration in Congress with members' repeated failure to pass a new war authorization that is more tailored to the current fight against terrorism — something many members have repeatedly pushed for in recent years — and bipartisan willingness to pursue the issue as wars in Syria and Iraq continue."  Buzzfeed

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The present AUMF is a blank check to wage war anywhere and forever.  pl  

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emmaloop/a-progressive-lawmaker-just-convinced-some-of-her?utm_term=.ywWKNavAl#.wh2rn6keR

Not a Gentleman ...

Is it not clear?   A gentleman never speaks publicly and adversely about a woman's appearance.  This is especially true if she is an enemy.  pl

Syrian Update - TTG

Shortly after announcing their de-escalation zone plan, the R+6 began their wide offensive to the east. It’s time for a review of operations and possible plans for future operations. We’ll begin with the a cogent and concise comment made on 27 June by alexandar. 

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Securing the Salamiyah-Resafa road is very important as it will reduce the Tiger Forces supply line from 225 km to 65 km. In case the Tiger Force goes on the offensive toward the Euphrates River, having a shorter supply line is necessary. That's IMO the only COA possible for the Tiger Force. All roads south of Rusafa are mountainous, with few to no possibility to bypass and take IS blocking forces by the rear. Akin of operations zones in Lebanon or Afghanistan where a single platoon can stop a brigade days after days and delay his move forward. It will be a long and deadly COA through these mountains.

A three axis move :

- North : Tiger Forces up to Euphrates River to cut Raqqa-Deir Ezzor road.

- Center : 5th Corps to fix as much as possible IS forces to defend Al Suknah.

- South : 5th Corps+Hezbollah + Hashd Al-Sha’abi + Liwaa Fatemiyoun conquer T2 and then Al Bukamal to cut the IS supply line from Iraq

IS will have to fight on three different fronts at the same time with no tactical priority, each of these three offensives being able to end the Deir Ezzor siege. 

Well, unless TRUMP begins WW3 following a new false chemical attack.

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It’s hard to argue with alexandar’s logic and reading of the military situation. I especially appreciate his analysis of the terrain between Rusafa and Deir Ezzor. The Tiger Forces are currently clearing the Salamiyah-Resafa road. They are now 15 to 17 km from doing so. A question remains whether they will close the gap and encircle the IS forces north of the road or allow them to evacuate that area before becoming encircled. Once that is done, the Tiger Forces will turn back to the east with the goal of interdicting the IS forces that are bound to leave Raqqa enroute to Deir Ezzor. I believe that COA would be more effective in relieving pressure on the defenders of Deir Ezzor than attempting the difficult route south to Deir Ezzor. 

The IS salient south of the Salamiyah-Resafa road and east of Homs is now being addressed by another SAA offensive spearheaded by the newly reequipped and retrained Desert Hawks. A video of the Hawks arrival in the area just east of Salamiyah show a large number of T-90 main battle tanks and BMP-1s on tank transporters. There are also plenty of technicals including Toyota Land Cruisers and 6x6 trucks mounted with ZSU-23-2 guns. Accompanying the Hawks are the Military Shield Forces and National Defense Forces (NDF) in this developing offensive. This large offensive will force the IS to either remain/reinforce their positions in this area or pull back towards Deir Ezzor and cede close to a hundred IS-held villages that span across eastern Hama and eastern Homs. to the advancing SAA forces. Either option benefits the SAA more than IS.

On the Palmyra front, the 5th Legion and the 18th Tank Division continue their push towards Al Suknah. Progress is steady, but slow. IS forces have been fortifying positions along this most likely axis to Deir Ezzor for well over a year. The pressure will continue, but I, along with a few other armchair observers, no longer see this as the most likely axis for the eventual relief of Deir Ezzor. Nor do I see the drive to Al Bukamal and north along the Euphrates as the most likely axis. That run along the Syrian-Iraqi border to Al Bukamal will continue, but the populated area along the Euphrates is also strongly held by IS forces. It will not be an easy drive along the river.

I believe the most likely route for the relief of Deir Ezzor is northeast across the flat desert from the Humaymah-T3 area directly towards the hills overlooking the airport at Deir Ezzor. The R+6 seems to be reinforcing the success in this area with highly mobile mixed forces fully capable of taking advantage of the open terrain and lack of fortified IS positions. This video of the SAA taking of the Zenobia Desert Camp offers a superb glimpse of the make up of the SAA and allied forces engaged in battle in this area and the nature of the battle itself.

In addition to the broad offensive to the east, the R+6 is engaged with the jihadists formerly known as Al Qaeda at Quneitra near the Golan Heights. Here the jihadists launched a three pronged offensive to take Baath City a few days ago. HTS and the FSA established a new “operation room” and announced the start of operation “Road to Damascus” on 24 June. The jihadists in this area have received substantial logistical and medical support from the Israelis. Over the last few days, they have also also received Israeli tactical air support from IAF F-16s and armed drones. These air attacks were aimed largely against the SAA artillery positions in the area. I’m sure the IDF is also represented in the “operation room” established to support this jihadi offensive. After some initial success, the jihadists were beaten back by the SAA allied Golan Regiment and  Quneitra Hawks militias. Fighting is continuing at this front.

Throughout Syria, the forces allied with Damascus are doing well. The Russian program to reorganize and modernize the SAA and Air Force is bearing fruit. Iran and Hezbollah are playing a substantial role in this success. But the war is far from over. To the north, Turkey is still longing to establish a substantial presence in Aleppo and is making noises towards Afrin. I believe this threat is being addressed behind the scenes by Putin and Lavrov. They have substantial carrot and stick leverage against Erdogan. I don’t think they are hesitant to use either one. The Coalition will continue to use the Kurds in an attempt to partition Syria. I am also convinced that Putin and Lavrov are working behind the scenes to convince the Rojava Kurds to pursue a more reasonable road within a united Syria. What these two are saying to the Israelis and Saudis is also of great interest to me. All in all, I feel what’s going on behind the diplomatic scenes is as important as what’s happening on the battlefield to the future of Syria.      

Aleksandar, my apologies for taking the liberty of making minor changes to your original comment. I trust I have not changed any of the points you made. Your command of the English language is “not so bad.”

TTG

https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2017/06/27/who-is-losing-and-who-is-winning-in-syria/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-turns-tables-al-qaeda-rebels-despite-israeli-airstrikes/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/israeli-air-force-helps-jihadist-rebels-beat-back-syrian-army-offensive/

HARPER: MATTIS WALKS BACK FROM SYRIA CW CLAIMS

En route to Brussels, Defense Secretary James Mattis told reporters that the Syrians are not planning a chemical weapons attack, walking significantly back from statements made earlier in the week by White House press spokesman Sean Spicer.  "They didn't do it," Mattis was quoted by the Washington Post. Mattis' face-saving claims that the Trump warnings to Russia and Syria "worked" and that the Syrians no longer planned the chemical weapons attack from Shayrat air base came in the context of growing published skepticism about the veracity of the intelligence, claiming that the U.S. had detected signs of a planned CW attack. 

•  On June 27, Paul Pillar and Greg Thielmann warned on Defense One that President Trump was "cherry picking" intelligence to justify war on Iran--in a replay of the Bush-Cheney Administration's propaganda campaign to justify the March 2003 Iraq invasion.
•  On June 25, Edward Lozansky penned an op-ed in the Washington Times, urging President Trump to get back on track with his campaign pledges to restore U.S.-Russian cooperation:  "Why was it right for Reagan to find a common language with Mr. Gorbachev and the then-Communist USSR while any suggestion from Mr. Trump to attempt the same with Vladimir Putin and post-Communist Russia leads to calls for his impeachment?"  He went on to write, "Fortunately, not only are the major details of the Reagan-Gorbachev negotiations and deals readily available, but we have among us many members of Reagan's inner circle with whom we can consult:  James Baker, Bill Bennett, Pat Buchanan, Chas Freeman, Suzanne Massie, Jack Matlock, Edwin Meese, Dana Rohrabacher, George Shultz, David Stockman... We need their advice about how to resolve this crisis and the time is now."
• And of course, Col. Lang proposed, concretely, that international observers should be posted at Syrian air bases to independently verify that the munitions being used by the Syrian Air Force are conventional weapons, not CW.
• Seymour Hersh published a lengthy account in Die Welt this week (after the London Review of Books refused to publish the piece), based on conversations with U.S. officials, debunking the whole idea that Syria had conducted the CW attack on April.  He warned that the U.S. was setting the stage for another "false flag" attack by the jihadists, to be blamed on the Syrian government, to justify deeper U.S. military action against the Assad government forces.

Reports, following the Spicer warnings indicated that the National Security team had not been consulted before the statement was issued.  

Facebook has stopped accepting my SST posts

Any thoughts?  pl

Unsupported assertions from the WH, or anywhere ...

The present occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is a capricious and undisciplined man.  He does not read anything but balance sheets (perhaps those are briefed to him).  He watches 24/7 cable news incessantly and forms his understanding of the world from these citadels of superficiality and corporate agenda.  His advisers and counselors are family members, cronies and seemingly heroic and photogenic generals who seem to represent an adolescent self-image of what he might have been.

STOP LISTENING TO THIS GUY WHEN HE TWEETS OR PRESS ANNOUNCES TO THE WORLD!

His latest blather sent to the world a few nights back through the long suffering press secretary Spicer was evidently based on nothing but the visible movement of trucks and other ground equipment around and on the Syrian air base that he last attacked with a hundred million dollars worth of TLAMs after his daughter cried over the jihadi propaganda film production from Khan Shaykhoun.

The after the fact support of DoD for DJT's wild Spicer delivered statement means nothing.  Mattis undoubtedly feels that his choice is either to support the CinC or leave.

IMO President Trump has too shallow and trivial a mind to be taken seriously on foreign policy and military affairs.  Hey, pilgrims, in the military we kill people and destroy things.  That is what we do.  The application of lethal violence in support of state policy is why we exist.  The necessary corollary to that principle is the expectation that state policy will be relatively sane.

Thus far, the foreign policy of the Trump Administration seems lacking in fact based logic and overwhelmingly based on the "hobby horses" of various splinter groups represented among his counselors.

If I were the Syrian government, I would request, nay, demand that international observer groups be stationed at ALL SAF airbases to ascertain exactly what ordnance is uploaded for combat operations.  Americans and Russians should be included in these groups.  The observers need not be briefed on targets but they would need to be able to verify ordnance loads. 

Unless that happens we face the prospect of yet another false flag gas "attack."  It seems likely that Christian or other non-Sunni captives were used as props in the last one.  We should be careful not to enable future attacks of this nature by giving credence to the wild statements of the man in the White House unless they are backed by credible evidence.  pl

HARPER: GOP BILL CUTS GROWTH OF MEDICAID, NOT MEDICAID

 

In all of the recent partisan bickering over the Senate and House health care bills, the Democrats have charged that the Republicans are cutting Medicaid spending.  From what I can determine from reading the texts, commentaries and Congressional Budget Office scorings, the measures reduce the rate of increase of Medicaid spending, ultimately reaching a point of zero growth--but they do not cut Medicaid.  There is a difference.  There is so much scare mongering around the domestic policy agendas of the two parties that it becomes almost impossible to conceive of any restoring of civility to our Federal political process.  One problem is the loose use of language, which fuels the deep divides and obscures the real issues that need to be debated with clarity.  This is but one noteworthy example.  This is not an endorsement of either of the Republican bills.  Obamacare was hopelessly broken, but I am not prepared to say that the GOP bills are the right fix.  I just wish that the Democrats challenging the efforts would speak truthfully.  The stakes are too high to demand anything less.  Harper

Blog name

There are now a great many objects in the internet that have "Sic Semper Tyrannis" (the words) embedded in them.  What do you all think of changing the name of the blog to "Pat Lang's Salon?"  pl

Bellingcat Buffoonery on Khan Sheikyoun by Publius Tacitus

The pushback against Sy Hersh's latest piece of genuine investigative journalism in which he exposes the lie that the Government of Syria hit Khan Sheikyoun with a sarin gas attack on 4 April 2017 is based on ignorance and misinformation. One of those leading this effort is Eliot Higgins, who blogs under the handle, Bellingcat. Well worth asking, Who is Eliot Higgins? According to Wikipedia:

In 2012, when Higgins began blogging the Syrian civil war, he was an unemployed finance and admin worker who spent his days taking care of his child at home;^[1] he is married to a Turkish woman.^{[3][4] . . .}

Higgins has no background or training in weapons and is entirely self-taught, saying that "Before the Arab spring I knew no more about weapons than the average Xbox owner. I had no knowledge beyond what I'd learned from Arnold Schwarzenegger and Rambo."^[1] Higgins does not speak or read Arabic.^[4]

Higgins is credited with being among the first to report on the widespread use of improvised barrel bombs by the Syrian government, a phenomenon which has spread to other troubled nations such as Iraq to combat insurgencies and opposition forces.^[5][6]

Ah yes, an uneducated, inexperienced guy with an opinion who happens to be married to someone of Turkish descent. Nothing unusual there, right? Of course he's an expert on sarin (sarcasm fully intended).

The fact that this gentlemen is treated as a credible source is further proof of the insanity that has taken over the public debate. He knows nothing other than what he has read. He has not been through live agent training at Fort McClellan (I have). He has no scientific background in the subject matter and no experience (other than playing video games) with actual chemical weapons (Ted Postol, who has written extensively on the subject, does have actual scientific and military expertise on the topic). Higgins knows nothing of the military doctrine for employing such weapons. He knows nothing of the process and procedures required for a military unit to safely handle, load, activate and deploy such weapons.

Actual people with such expertise look at the public accounts about what supposedly happened at Khan Sheikyoun and scratch their heads. Why?

 

On to the Euphates at Albukamal

 

 

"The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) is gearing up to attack one of the most important border-crossings between the Deir Ezzor Governorate and Iraq’s Al-Anbar Governorate, a military source told Al-Masdar News today.

Led by their 5th Corps, the Syrian Arab Army plans to capture the imperative T-2 Pumping Station within the next few days, as their forces ramp up operations north of the Houran Valley.

Once the T-2 Pumping Station is seized, the Syrian Arab Army will have a clear path to the ‘Akaz Gas Fields, where they hope to expel the remaining Islamic State (ISIL) forces to the  key city of Albukamal.

With Albukamal in their sights, the Syrian Arab Army will attempt to cutoff the Islamic State’s most important supply route from Iraq, which will accelerate the terrorist group’s downfall near the provincial capital of Deir Ezzor.

Helping the Syrian Army complete this operation will be the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (Hashd Al-Sha’abi), Hezbollah, and Liwaa Fatemiyoun."  AMN

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Well, pilgrims, this would be a big deal.  A clean sweep to Albukamal will secure the border with Iraq and insure the creation of an overland route from Baghdad and Iran unless USAF starts attacking traffic along the road.  i do not expect that to happen but who knows what kind of guidance Kushner will pass on to DJT from Bibi.

The existing road bridge across the Euphrates River in the Albukamal area would be quite useful but I think the highway connection north to deir al-zor would provide a high speed approach for relief of the garrison.  pl  

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-plans-seize-important-iraqi-border-crossing/

Obama: A Legacy of Hope and Change. Part 1. Sanctuary City.……by Fred

Grant Park, Chicago, November 2008.

"In this country, we rise or fall as one nation, as one people. Let's resist the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long." ... "This is our time, .... to reclaim the American dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth, that, out of many, we are one”. Fine words on the night of election victory. But times change; what a difference 8 years can make. 

January, 2016. It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. It was a time of hope, and....

Bang. Bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, BLaM! I wonder what happened there? Bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, BLaM!, Bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, BLaM!, Bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang,

 

Sanity Emerging in Europe over Syria?

" French President, Emmanuel Macron, recently departed from his campaign proposals on the Syrian War by saying that “My lines are clear: Firstly, a complete fight against all the terrorist groups. They are our enemies.” Promising more cooperation with Russia in eradicating terrorism, Macron added that he sees no legitimate successor to President Bashar al-Assad and that President Assad is not the enemy of France. These comments came as a shock to many pundits as it was clear that Macron was the establishment centrist candidate in the 2017 French presidential election, even securing an endorsement from former U.S. President, Barack Obama. While this may be seen as a one-off statement and perhaps only rhetoric to please a growing opposition to deeper intervention in Syria, a trend is beginning to emerge in European politics that is challenging interventionist orthodoxies mainly emanating from the United States."  AMN

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Well, well, sanity raising it comely head?  I can only assume that this admirer of handsome middle aged women means AQ based jihadi groups supported by Israel and the CIA as well as the IS ones that the US  is obsessed with.  This would be a radical change in focus for the French. 

Such a change in policy would likely be followed across Europe.  Someone will have to explain this to Trump.  pl  

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/is-europe-pursuing-an-independent-foreign-policy/

"Trump‘s Red Line" by Sy Hersh

" To the dismay of many senior members of his national security team, Trump could not be swayed over the next 48 hours of intense briefings and decision-making. In a series of interviews, I learned of the total disconnect between the president and many of his military advisers and intelligence officials, as well as officers on the ground in the region who had an entirely different understanding of the nature of Syria’s attack on Khan Sheikhoun. I was provided with evidence of that disconnect, in the form of transcripts of real-time communications, immediately following the Syrian attack on April 4. In an important pre-strike process known as deconfliction, U.S. and Russian officers routinely supply one another with advance details of planned flight paths and target coordinates, to ensure that there is no risk of collision or accidental encounter (the Russians speak on behalf of the Syrian military). This information is supplied daily to the American AWACS surveillance planes that monitor the flights once airborne. Deconfliction’s success and importance can be measured by the fact that there has yet to be one collision, or even a near miss, among the high-powered supersonic American, Allied, Russian and Syrian fighter bombers."  Hersh

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Speaks for itself.  pl 

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article165905578/Trump-s-Red-Line.html

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article165905618/We-got-a-fuckin-problem.html

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article165906452/The-Fog-of-War.html

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article165906278/Islamic-States-Horror-Arsenal.html

Our Grand American Delusion by Publius Tacitus

City on a Hill? Leader of the Free World? Defender of Freedom? How about a mass of delusional crazies? I have come to the sad conclusion that we are the latter. We have forfeited our moral standing in the world. If you believe in God and the concept of karma, then you should be praying the God forgives us for our greed, our blood thirsty policies and our eagerness to accept lies rather than confront uncomfortable, hard truths. We have racked up one hell of a karma bill and there will be hell to pay.

At the core of our mass national delusion is the anti-Russian meme that is being enthusiastically and frequently repeated. Here's a passage from a article in the National Review last year that is, from what I have gleaned scanning the internet and the media, a representative view:

Russia’s false narrative of the history and destiny of the eastern Slavs as one in which all others must resign themselves to living under Muscovite hegemony must be constantly challenged and rebutted, especially in the West. It would be a great help in that task of public mental health if Western political leaders, or wannabe political leaders, would cease and desist from describing Vladimir Putin as a strong leader who gets things done. What Putin has gotten done is to build a kleptocratic Mafia state on top of a crumbling civil society while murdering his opponents with impunity and using an acquiescent Russian Orthodox Church leadership to provide ideological cover for the entire enterprise. This is shameful in itself; it is even more shameful when it is left unanswered and unchallenged by Western political and religious leaders.

 

Dumb and Dumber - by Richard Sale

I am writing in praise of Pat Lang’s recent post and his keen observations into politics.

We must remember that the majority of the American public elected Trump President.  That is where the real blame lies. Trump says he doesn’t like poor people, but says he loves uneducated people.  Why? Because uneducated people are basically uninstructed mobs. They are suggestible. They are like sponges – their destiny is to soak things up. They can’t think except in a group.  the French poet Baudelaire hated the Belgians because he said “They were born to think in unison.” On CBS Sunday Morning this week, one of my wife’s favorite shows, (not mind,) Ted Koppel did a bit that made clear that not only we do we know same things in common; we get that knowledge the same way at basically the same time. Such a thing is drastically retarding to the mind’s development.

In other words, we are in the grip of hideous uniformity. This means that what we claim to know is a very superficial brand of knowledge. It doesn’t help either that we are also a nation drowning in data.  If you want to hear a weather report, it goes on for five minutes, many of the facts reheated over and over again to the point of stupefaction. What should be an alert or a heads up becomes an instance of tedious self display in order to be favorably noticed. Bah, humbug.

People are more and more like schools of minnows who swim in the same direction, then suddenly swim in other direction. They don’t break ranks, there are no minnows that desert the pack and strike out for themselves.  To me that defines politics.  Most people do not grasp that politics exists only because of the indifference of the majority. I won’t belong to a political party for tat reason. Whoever embraces a political party is giving up their intellectual; sovereignty and independence. A political party is a school of followers, all swimming n one direction for the sake of unity. The people I mostly talk to are usually liberals, liberals by habit, inclination, and conceit. Liberals assumed their ideas are superior to any other ideas.  (I am not a conservative.) They don’t vote on the basic of evidence. They don’t vote for merit. They vote in order to admire their views because those are the most enlightened views, and their views make them extremely self-righteous about what they believe, as if no other beliefs could possibly be as compassionate, foresighted or charitable as their own.

My own views are simple - I try to vote for merit. I try to vote for honesty, for people of heart and vision. I am suspicious of politicians because most are devoured by a lust for power.  That lust comprises them from the beginning. The lust for power has always destroyed the society it lives and rules in, but that is ignored. I have ideals, but I don’t take them for granted; I remain skeptical of them. I try to refine and improve and perfect them all the time.  Recently, I had a discussion with two young women who voted for Hillary, and we still angered over her loss, and when I said I didn’t vote for Trump or Hillary, one was affronted.  She said, Well one of them was going to run the country, so you have to vote for one of them. I told them I didn’t vote for either of them because I did not want that on my conscience. A very bright young man who wrote in Bernie Sanders on the ballot felt the same way. I asked the young women if they had studied the email scandal.  They hadn’t.  I said I had a file of one hundred pages showing what a conniving, heartless skunk Hillary was and would be happy to forward the file to them. I doubt they will read it. They have already been convinced.

But was my view correct? I thought it was or I wouldn’t have aired it. In any case, I dislike collectivities.

To me, the chief evil in today’s political scene is the decline of the critical spirit.  What is that? It means a capacity for analyzing things in order to accurately determine their value.  What does this require? You must be observant. You must be unhurried. You must be studious. The video image dominates our culture to our detriment. These images flash before us in less than a second.  We have no time to examine their meaning, their accuracy or their worth because the rapidity of sequence denies us this.

What I see today is a clouding of mental alertness, a growing insensitivity of personalities because of our cultural decline. We put up with all sorts of nauseous smells, deafening noises, abrupt accidents and crashes and atrocities. Modern man is becoming increasingly insensitive, ever more addicted to constant excitement and novelty, requiring harsh stimulants, disdaining any sort of repose of the mind in order to develop it.

Our thought has its basis in perceptions. We see or hear something that strikes our mind, and it makes us curious. What was it about the sight or sound that made us want to know more about it? So we begin to investigate. We view similar perceptions.  After a while we develop a sense of hierarchy, putting the most worthwhile at the top of the list.  It takes critical capacity to do this.  We have to observe, compare, compare again, gather more examples, and finally begin to hammer out an order of value. The brain is key to this, (I almost said, "to this process," a phrase widely overused.) The brain is always busy. It takes nothing for granted.  It questions, it cross-examines. We come to our own conclusions by thinking things out.  Thinking is a precarious activity. Thinking doesn't deliver certainties or ready made conclusions.  Thinking simply requires we take more thought before we can rest on our opinions. We are never sure we are right in what we think until we have gathered more incidents, experiences and examples, and even then, the mind is left in suspense.  What if a new experience upsets your carefully constructed hierarchy?

But the chief virtue of thought is that acts to deepen us, to widen us, make us more open to the unexpected, the unfamiliar and the novel, less able to reject things that are odd or strange. Thought keeps open the door to learning. Conceit and ignorance seal it shut.

But who today thinks of such things?

If I were a Republican ...

I am a member of neither party but:

1.  The GOP won handily in the 6th House District in Georgia.  The Democratic Party inclined MSM is doing all it can to whittle away at the numbers each day but their defeat is apparent.  This make four in a row that the Democrats have lost in special elections conducted to fill open seats.  The Dems poured money into the election in this suburban Atlanta district. They hugely outspent the Republicans.  Most of the money came from the film industry and Silicon Valley.  In California the  local media continue to reflect an attitude of "we came close."  IMO the out of state money increased the turnout for Karen Handel the local Republican politician.  The Democrats keep saying that her predecessor won by 20 points but in fact he won unopposed by anyone significant.  Nevertheless the national Democratic Party shows no sign of coming down from whatever kind of trip they have been on since November.  Since that time they have been controlled by the street jihadis in screeching slogans in harmony, a chorus of secular maenads.  What they need to do is formulate a party wide economic program but they show little interest in doing that.  They would rather screech insults at the other side while implying publicly that the Republicans would be Democrats of they were not so ignorant and deplorably Southern.  Mike Barnicle on the Mika's Joe program actually said yesterday that the Republicans won Atlanta because it was all "Chinatown" there.  This is a reference to the Polanski film and it implies a total lack of order and civilization in the 6th District of Georgia.  If I were a Republican I would hope that the Democrats stay on their present "high" for a long time.

2.  The health bill is not going to receive a single vote from any Democratic senator.  Harry Reid abolished the senate rule that required 60 votes for cloture.  51 votes will pass an action in the senate.  The law does not require hearings before a floor vote.  The health care bill is a roadblock to passing the rest of DJT's program.  A lot of Trump's presumptive legislature program looks very promising.  They should pass the bill and send it back to the House so that the process is visibly under way.  Whatever needs be given or promised to dissident Republican senators should be presented to them with a nice red bow tied around it.  There will time enough later to bargain over what has been promised.

3.  Trump himself is a menace to the party's future.  His erratic behavior, egotism and uncontrolled statements will eventually come to irritate far more people than now.  At his rally last night he actually told the world that he has a low regard for poor people. A corollary of such an attitude is usually "I don't care how you got your money."  There will be a cost attached to such statements.  And then there is his mindless bellicosity with regard to foreign policy.  I am told that his hair trigger temper has brought us very close to war in Korea.  Such a war would be a disaster for all concerned.  He listens to no one except his daughter and son-in-law.  In Syria he is being "advised" by neocons, Zionist operatives and jingoist generals who desire war against the SAG and Iran.  The GOP has to find a way to get this man under control.  BTW the Salman action making his young son crown prince may seem like a good idea now but there will be intense resentment withing the royal family over this violation of the principle that established the idea that the most able in the family should rule.  pl

The "17 Intelligence Community Agencies" Canard on Russian Interference by Publius Tacitus

CANARD--a false or unfounded report or story; especially :  a fabricated report. That's how Merriam Dictionary defines the term and it certainly seems to be a dandy word to describe the claim that Russia interfered in the 2016 Presidential election and that the 17 U.S. intelligence agencies agree.

May I nominate Hillary Clinton as The Queen of the Canard? Last month, during an interview by Walt Mossberg at the CODE conference, Hillary was eager to feed the lie that Russia ensured Donald Trump's victory and  cited "17" U.S. intelligence agencies as her evidence:

Hillary: Now, the question is, where and how did the Russians get into this? And I think it’s a very important question. So, I assume that a lot of people here may have — and if you haven’t, I hope you will — read the declassified report by the Intelligence community that came out in early January.

Mossberg: This is 17 agencies ...

Hillary: Seventeen agencies, all in agreement, which I know from my experience as a Senator and Secretary of State, is hard to get. They concluded with high confidence that the Russians ran an extensive information war campaign against my campaign, to influence voters in the election. They did it through paid advertising we think, they did it through false news sites, they did it through these thousand agents, they did it through machine learning, which you know, kept spewing out this stuff over and over again. The algorithms that they developed. So that was the conclusion. And I think it’s fair to ask, how did that actually influence the campaign? And how did they know what messages to deliver?

We can forgive Hillary for her confusion about this supposed fact given her apparent reliance on the joint statement issued 7 October 2016 by the Director of National Intelligence and the Director of Homeland Security:

The U.S. Intelligence Community (USIC) is confident that the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of e-mails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organizations. The recent disclosures of alleged hacked e-mails on sites like DCLeaks.com and WikiLeaks and by the Guccifer 2.0 online persona are consistent with the methods and motivations of Russian-directed efforts. These thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the US election process. Such activity is not new to Moscow—the Russians have used similar tactics and techniques across Europe and Eurasia, for example, to influence public opinion there. We believe, based on the scope and sensitivity of these efforts, that only Russia's senior-most officials could have authorized these activities.

But this was not a legitimate judgement of the U.S. intelligence community and did not reflect the views of 17 separate U.S. intelligence agencies. Why?

Invincible folly? - US policy and mass delusion

The US since 9/11 has pursued a policy that seems clearly designed to establish the US as the world's hegemon in pursuit of a utopian future ultimately based on belief in "American Exceptionalism" and the Reaganesque vision of America as a "Shining City upon a Hill," the form and pattern for mankind's future.  This vision is based on the beliefs that English Puritans brought to New England in the 17th Century and which were explicitly stated by them in the writings of such people as John Winthrop, the first governor of the Massachusetts Bay colony.  The economic determinist crowd can state their objections to this explanation by me in "comments" below.

Whether you may think that dollars or ideas have been the determinants of recent policy, the practice since 9/11 of campaigning for basic transformation of foreign countries and cultures has been an unmitigated disaster for the United States.   In pursuit of these policies of revolutionary change in ancient societies we have spent trillions of US dollars. This was money we did not and do not have and which we borrowed from our future with the result that our posterity will have at least 20 trillion dollars in public debt with which to cope.  I will not attempt to eulogize the brothers and sisters in arms of the soldiers here.  Nothing could console us for their deaths and mutilations but a great necessity born of a true threat to national survival and that has not been present in these wars designed to create a brave new world.

And now the Trump Administration is building on the folly of GW Bush's first term infatuation with Cheney and the neocons, as well as BHO's reluctance to dump the whole mess (including his COIN decision in 2009).  Considering the present president's obvious shortcomings in experience in running a large organization and his tendency to want to play his subordinates off against each other, it is understandable that a lot of the best and most experienced people do not want to work for him.  As a result he is being advised by staffers who somehow appealed to Michael Flynn in his function as chief targeteer for JSOC and whom McMaster has not removed or perhaps not been able to remove. 

A pervasive assumption among these young people is the notion that Russia is a "paper tiger" and inevitably an enemy.  Some of you will have watched the four part Oliver Stone interview with Vladimir Putin.  IMO Putin is not a "paper tiger."  The belief that Putin is afraid of the United States and will back away from us to avoid a fight is, I think, badly flawed.  There is a pernicious fever of Russophobia that is now wide spread among active and retired officers of the US armed forces.    Many officers, however intelligent and well educated are extremely rigid in their thinking.  This is a professional defect that was rewarded in the long process of competitive service leading to promotion.  It was thought to indicate reliability and firmness of character.  The Army's Russian studies graduate school at Germisch, Germany has, IMO, contributed to this Russophobia by inculcating an attitude of implacable hostility toward the USSR and now Russia.  The officer graduates of that institution have imparted this attitude to many others in the US Army.  Retired US Army officers are now heard on Foxnews saying that the Russians must be "pushed into submission."  This is crazy.  Russia is not a minor power.  They spend a tenth of what we do on military forces but their missile silos  and submarines are full of weapons. 

In Syria, the Russian aerospace forces have maintained a constant liaison link to the US air operations staff at al-Odeid air base in Qatar.  All Syrian and Russian air operations have been de-conflicted between the two sides.  This has been the case in spite of severe provocation by US aircraft who have killed a lot of Syrian soldiers even after the US air operations involved have supposedly been coordinated with the Russian/Syrian side as to routes and targets.

US coalition activity is so aggressive in the Raqqa/Tabqa area of north Syria and in the SE around the al-tanf border crossing that it seems clear that the US intends to partition Syria on a de facto basis with the east being used as a base for a post IS campaign against the Syrian government.

This intention is evident to the regional players as well as the Russians,  Arabs don't like foreign invaders, especially foreign invaders who seek to advance the policy positions of the Israelis.  Do we not all know that Israel wishes to destroy the Syrian government in the process of constructing a cordon sanitaire around itself?  The Iraqi PMU (both Shia and Sunni) are closing ranks with the Syrian government to resist such foreign projects.  Iraqi PMU (mostly Sunni) occupy the al-waliid border crossing from Syria into Iraq just south of al-tanf.  They are not there to assist whatever it is that the US is trying to do in SE Syria.  Iraqi forces (including Shia PMU) have linked up with the Syrian Army SW of Mosul.  Translation:  The US is in the process of losing the acquiescence of the Iraqi government in its evident hostility toward the Syrian government.

IMO Mattis and McMaster need to get a grip on what is really at stake in Syria and Iraq and quickly rid themselves of the malicious little people in the NSC staff who are pushing forces around as though they are chess pieces.  pl  

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Winthrop

“Ben Finney, Anthropologist Who Debunked Theory on Island Settlement, Dies at 83” - TTG

“On June 4, 1976, the Hokulea, a double-hulled sailing canoe of ancient design, glided into Papeete Harbor in Tahiti, greeted ecstatically by a crowd of 17,000 — more than half the island’s population. For the first time in six centuries, a traditional Polynesian sailing vessel had made the voyage from Hawaii to Tahiti, covering more than 2,700 miles without instruments.

For Ben Finney, an anthropologist at the University of Hawaii, it was sweet vindication. In an effort to prove that the settlement of Polynesia came about through deliberate exploration, rather than aimless drifting — the so-called accidental settlement hypothesis — he oversaw the construction of a 62-foot double canoe based on 18th-century illustrations made by members of Capt. James Cook’s crew.

He then found a master navigator from the Caroline Islands, Mau Piailug, who was capable of guiding the Hokulea (the name means “Star of Joy”) in the age-old way: using the rising points of the stars, supplemented by observations of the sun, the moon and ocean swells, as a natural compass.

Thirty-four days after leaving Honolua Bay, in Maui, on May 1, the Hokulea reached its destination, affirming the navigational expertise of the ancient Polynesians and throwing additional cold water on Thor Heyerdahl’s conjecture that settlers had come from South America, a theory he hoped to prove in his famous 1947 voyage aboard the raft Kon-Tiki.”  (NYT)

****************************** 

I was always enamored of the Hokule’a. I first saw her in the Ala Wai Harbor near the Hale Koa Hotel in Honolulu around Christmas in 1977. She sat in the water all alone. It was just me and her… love at first sight. I was heart broken when I missed her arrival at Alexandria, Virginia last May. This port call was part of her three year circumnavigation of the earth tour. Perhaps some day we will meet again. I have kept the knowledge of this love affair from SWMBO. She thinks we’re just friends. 

I have seen many recreated sailing vessels. Most have auxiliary engines and modern navigational equipment. Not the Hokule’a. She relies on the wind and the stars as well as the sun, moon and ocean wave patterns to reach her destination. That is special. Ben Finney left quite a legacy in the Hokule’a and everything she stands for.

TTG

P.S. - My profound thanks to Colonel Lang for allowing me to indulge my occasional off-the-wall thoughts such as this.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/17/us/ben-finney-dead-hawaii-tahiti.html?_r=0

http://archives.starbulletin.com/1999/06/07/hokulea/story4.html

http://www.hawaii.edu/malamalama/2008/05/f2-voyaging.html

 

Operation "Grand Dawn" Post 4 - TTG

"BEIRUT, LEBANON (5:45 P.M.) – Syria and Jordan have entered into talks mediated by Russia to reopen the Nassib Border-Crossing, Al-Masdar learned today from a military source. If the talks are successful, the rebel forces at the Nassib Border-Crossing will be ordered to withdraw from the area by their Jordanian partners.

Reopening the Nassib Border-Crossing would have a positive impact on Syria’s strained economy, as both countries were once key trade partners in the region.

While the two governments discuss economic rapprochement, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has resumed its offensive in the Dara’a Governorate, today, targeting the eastern part of the provincial capital in a bid to expel the rebel forces from the area." (Al Masdar News)

*********************

Leith Fadel and Al Masdar News are fairly reliable sources. A second source, Ivan Sidorenko, provided what appears to be a machine translation of an Arabic language report of a more far reaching development in this area. 

*********************

“Daraa: A ceasefire is looming in the horizon, a ceasefire will start tomorrow at 12 PM from both sides (the regime by Russia’s mediation and the states funding the Southern front), the first stage of this ceasefire will be a 48 hours ceasefire, after that, a meeting will be organized to introduce a complete ceasefire. The ceasefire will include the stopping of reinforcements from both sides, stopping the barrel bombs & the warplanes strikes & heavy machines shelling by the regime, but will the “Bunian al-Marsous” operation command accept this? We shall see in the next upcoming hours”  (@IvanSidorenko1)

*********************

Sounds like good news… or wishful thinking. The R+6 is slamming the rebel forces in Daraa with aerial, artillery and rocket strikes. They are making progress on the ground and are massing for an even larger offensive. If this all happens, it will be due to the negotiating power of Russia backed up by determined threat of serious R+6 military force in this area. I would think Jordan is not at all comfortable with the 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade sitting so close to their border. I also believe many of the rebels in this area do not have their heart in the fight and only continue fighting because of the diehard AQ units among them. I don’t think Jordan’s heart is in this fight, either.

If this ceasefire does come to fruition, this will be a major success for Operation Grand Dawn. It will secure another section of Syria’s southern border and will facilitate the implementation of the southernmost de-escalation zone. It will also free up some major firepower for the eastward push to Al Bukamal and Deir Ezzor.

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syria-jordan-talks-reopen-border-crossing/

https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/875888684314361856

A renewed SST on July 5th

I will begin posting my own articles on that day.  There will be clarified rules about posts, comments, and trollcontrols.  pl

Fake News and the Russian Interference Lie - by Publius Tacitus

As a former intelligence officer who participated in covert actions overseas (i.e., actions designed to shape foreign public opinion to fall in line with U.S. policy) I have watched with a mixture of amusement and horror the circus spun up around the ridiculous claim that Russia interfered with the U.S. Presidential election. I do not doubt that Russia, if it put its mind to it, could do a number on our national election. The Russians have an outstanding, capable intelligence service and a much more pragmatic view about the outside world. I can't say the same for the good old USA.

But where's the beef? Where's the actual evidence that Russia interfered in our elections in 2016?  Please go back and take a look at the lamentable so-called intelligence assessment put out by Jimmy Clapper when he was still head of the the DNI (Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections). Here are the key conclusions:

• We assess Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the US presidential election.

• Russia’s goals were to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency.

• We further assess Putin and the Russian Government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump.

• Moscow’s influence campaign followed a Russian messaging strategy that blends covert intelligence operations—such as cyber activity—with overt efforts by Russian Government agencies, state-funded media, third-party intermediaries, and paid social media users or “trolls.”

Sounds very ominous. But it is still quite vague and non-specific. What exactly did those dastardly Rooskies do? Let's go back to the assessment:

• Russia’s intelligence services conducted cyber operations against targets associated with the 2016 US presidential election, including targets associated with both major US political parties.

• We assess with high confidence that Russian military intelligence (General Staff Main Intelligence Directorate or GRU) used the Guccifer 2.0 persona and DCLeaks.com to release US victim data obtained in cyber operations publicly and in exclusives to media outlets and relayed material to WikiLeaks.

• Russian intelligence obtained and maintained access to elements of multiple US state or local electoral boards. DHS assesses that the types of systems Russian actors targeted or compromised were not involved in vote tallying.

• Russia’s state-run propaganda machine contributed to the influence campaign by serving as a platform for Kremlin messaging to Russian and international audiences.

That's it--three basic things to "influence" the Presidential election. First, the NSA, CIA and, to a lesser extent, the FBI, believed that the Russians hacked into the DNC and John Podesta emails, then passed that content to to Wikileaks and DC Leaks, who subsequently published the information. Second, the Russians supposedly obtained access to "elements" (undefined) of US state or local electoral boards. Third, Russian media outlets, RT and Sputnik News, put out Kremlin friendly messages.

 

Operation “Grand Dawn” Post 3 - TTG

"DAMASCUS, SYRIA (8:20 P.M.) – Late on Friday afternoon, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), Hezbollah and allied Iraqi paramilitary contingents dashed through southeastern Homs and reached an Iraqi border point, thus slicing adrift the frontline between rebel forces based in the Al-Tanf region and ISIS militants in the neighboring Deir Ezzor governorate.

Unopposed by the US Air Force and its vetted Syrian proxies, the SAA and its allies drove through over 40 kilometers of abandoned desert territory and managed to link up with an Iraqi garrison across the border.

The advance was confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense and an Hezbollah-linked outlet moments ago.

Effectively, the SAA is now able to reopen trade between Damascus and Baghdad. Government forces have not controlled any parts of the largely ISIS-controlled border with Iraq since 2014.

In addition, Hezbollah is now able to be supplied with weapons from Tehran via an all-important land route. Previously, the Lebanese group relied on complicated airlifts for new armaments.”  (Al Masdar News)

**********************

I thought this might be the next move and here it is. Leith Fadel also reports there was some kind of agreement between Washington and Moscow to let this happen. I don’t think we (the US) had much of a choice in this. The R+6 called our bluff and we blinked. I think it is significant that the SAA and Hezbollah column that made the 40 km dash to the border linked up with the Iraqi PMU. I would now consider the R+6 as the R+7. 

What’s next? This map shown during a Russian MOD briefing says it all. The R+6 intends to continue the drive east to secure the Iraqi-Syrian border and capture Al Bukamal.

In other news, that big Druze SOB and his boys are still holding on in Deir Ezzor despite the best efforts of the IS jihadis. Relief is on the way.

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-hezbollah-reaches-border-iraq-first-time-years/

17 million page views for SST and gone

I am leaving you.  Guest authors, commenters and the various troll nations may continue if you wish.  I may start another blog under "Pat Lang's Blog" but there will not be comments.  pl

Turkey has aligned with Qatar

 

The diplomatic crisis in Qatar saw a new development Wednesday as Turkey's parliament passed legislation permitting the deployment of troops to a Turkish military base in Qatar. The legislation was drafted prior to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain severing ties with Qatar, but indicates that Turkey is willing to help the Gulf Arab country.

The bill was supported by both the governing AK party and the nationalist opposition.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated Tuesday that "Turkey will continue and will develop our ties with Qatar," adding that "we do not think the sanctions against Qatar are good." Erdogan insisted Turkey would have intervened if the sanctions of terrorist support were proved, but questioned the effectiveness of measures already taken by his Arab neighbors in isolating the small emirate. Reports of Qatar's ongoing support for regional Islamist groups, most notably the Muslim Brotherhood, and Shiite-ruled Iran, led to uneasy relations with many neighboring nations.  Weekly Standard

----------------

Well, pilgrims you can add Mauretania the list of those following Saudi Arabia's lead in this.  They must be on "the dole" from Riyadh.

Qatar is a strange little place.  It is really a sandbar sticking out into the Gulf.  Qatar possesses large gas reserves but does anyone think that desire to possess these reserves motivates Saudi Arabia?   Qatar is the only Wahhabi country other than Saudi Arabia itself.  It exists because imperial Britain wanted to hold a non-Saudi piece of Wahhabi dominated "soil" in the Gulf region.  Qatar realizes the weakness of its position vis a vis Saudi Arabia.  The emirate is in fact if not in appearance an absolute dictatorship.  I was present at a meeting at the ruler's palace in Doha in which the then emir laughed and told the group I was with that if the West wanted democracy he would create things for them to look at.  He would have a parliament.  He would have a "free" press (Al-Jazeera?).  He said that there had been a subversive conspiracy attempting  a coup recently and that he had a number of the plotters in prison.  What should I do with them he asked this group of millionaires and corporate representative.   I do not wish to upset "The West" too much.  The response from the leader of the group was that the prisoners should receive due process.  The emir then changed the subject. 

Existing in such a milieu, Qatar's rulers have sought to "fireproof" themselves against a future in which Saudi Arabia decides that the Qatari mini-state's existence is unnecessary.

1.  Firstly, and perhaps most importantly they have given the US the use of land including the area of the former British air base at al-udeid and enough space to position USCENTCOM's forward headquarters in theater.  These facilities are very important to the US.  The air war in the ME is run from al-udeid air base, not the flying necessarily, but just about all the staff functions for command and control.   DJT does not seem to grasp the importance of al-udeid to the US air war.

2.  The "Al-Jazeera network" is a great irritant to the autocratic states of the Arab World.  It has always been such and it has been bitched about to me by rich and otherwise powerful Arabs from its creation.  It is clearly under the protection of the house al-thani (the rulers of this little country).  As I have said, this princely house is not IMO in any way democratic.  Al-Jazeera is part of the Potemkin Village of democracy that is presented to the West by the Qatari state, but that image is helpful to them.

3.  Qatar maintains a  certain ambiguity with regard to its relations with Iran.  It has recently chosen to emphasize that ambiguity, probably IMO in response to DJT's acceptance of his role as the mukhtar of America. 

And now, in demonstration of Sultan Erdogan's ambition to one day be thought Commander of the Faithful, the Turkish parliament has provided the legal basis for Turkey to intervene militarily and politically in settlement of the present difficulty involving Saudi Arabia, its Arab allies and mukhtar Trump on the one hand with Qatar and Turkey (possibly Iran?) on the other.

Can one doubt that Turkish support for the al-thani will achieve great influence in Qatar? If so, what will be Turkey's level of influence over US use of al-udeid AFB?  Without the C&C facilities at that base we would essentially be out of business in the air war.  And then there is Incirlik AFB ...

What on earth does DJT think he is doing by siding with SA against Qatar?  pl  

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar 

http://www.weeklystandard.com/turkey-approves-deploying-troops-to-qatar/article/2008364

A few thoughts on the leaks - TTG

I had every intention to post something last night concerning the leaked NSA report on Russian election hacking, the oddly named young alleged leaker and the possible motivations behind her action. But I faced a dilemma. Even though the NSA document has been widely published, it is still classified. I no longer hold an active security clearance, but I am still legally bound by the many security agreements I have signed over the years. Technically speaking, I am not supposed to be reading or hearing about this latest leaked NSA report or commenting upon it except in the most circumspect manner. For anyone else here who has signed one of these ubiquitous security agreements at some time in your life, this is something to keep in mind.

On the other hand, I have solemnly sworn to support and defend the Constitution against all enemies. I took this oath before God. I pledged my life and sacred honor. If I ever found myself faced with a decision to go with a solemnly sworn oath before God or my signature on a legal agreement, I certainly hope I would choose my sacred honor and loving God over the penalties of the US legal code, no matter how severe those penalties might be. But more on this later. Here’s my comments on some questions raised by some of our correspondents.

1.  Why did Reality Winner have access to this document? Reality probably was first processed for a TS clearance shortly after she began training as an Air Force linguist and before she was assigned to NSA at Fort Meade as a linguist. As such, she was given an account on NSANet. This TS/SCI intranet gives analysts broad access to practically all intelligence information within NSA and across many other IC agencies. This wide ranging access came about because of unexamined advances in information technology and the deliberate decision to eliminate the stove piping of intelligence as a post-9/11 intelligence reform. Very little remains behind the walls of need-to-know besides HUMINT operational data and designated SAPs. 

This became a real problem with cyber operations and cyber reporting. This reporting often required detailed and specific data to be of use to network defenders. If these reports were available in the existing intelligence reporting databases, any analyst could access it. When I was setting up my last collection outfit, I was advised by a high level CIA tech dude to make my reporting limited distribution outside the normal reporting system from the git go. Otherwise some bonehead analyst who thought they were a 1337 cyber-sleuth would start investigating from his NIPRNet box and blow the operation. I ended up establishing a reporting system that was technologically decades out of date but still responsive to the needs of my customers. Perhaps a certain amount of stove piping will come back into vogue.

2.  Why did a contract linguist have a TS/SCI clearance? Almost every job in the IC requires a TS/SCI clearance as a minimum requirement. Almost every building is a SCIF. This is especially true at the NSA. Even some of the cleaning staff have TS/SCI clearances, but no IT system access. The alternative is to stop over-classifying everything or make due with far fewer TS/SCI cleared personnel. I don’t see either happening anytime soon.

3.  Is this a real NSA document? Unless the FBI arrest warrant is also a total fabrication, the document is real. The FBI states so in the warrant. The Intercept also redacted parts of the document at the request of the NSA when it became apparent that it was going to be published. If it was fake, the NSA would have just blown off the Intercept reporter. 

Many will continue to insist this document is fake along with every other piece of information about the “Russians tried to hack the election” thing. It’s all part of the vast snowflake conspiracy to get Trump out of office, just like the USG was behind the 9/11 attacks and the Sandy Hook shooting was a hoax perpetrated by Obama in an effort to take all our firearms. I can't help you.

4.  Did this and other illegal leaks damage our collection capability? I have no doubt the sum total of information that has been made public concerning the Russian info op has degraded our capabilities to collect against the Russian target. However, I believe Obama’s personal warning to Putin in September 2016, his “red phone” warning to Putin along with the expulsion of 35 Russian officials in December 2016 and the 6 January 2017 DNI report tipped Putin to holes in his commo systems. As soon as I heard our government accuse Putin of being behind the DNC hacks, I knew we were deep in their shit. All that didn’t come about because of the CrowdStrike malware report. The illegal leaks were just icing on the cake. 

5.  What was Reality Winner thinking? Damned good question. If she thought she was going to be a protected whistle blower, she was hopelessly mistaken. Her stunt will end up costing her ten years of her life. Perhaps she thought she could outfox the NSA and FBI and get away with it. Given her background, she should have known better. She hated Trump and the Republican agenda. Maybe in her naiveté, she thought this small act would help in stopping Trump and the Republicans. That’s hardly seems worth ten years of her life.    

There’s another possibility. This may apply to Winner and to the other illegal leakers. There is a real possibility that Russia made a deliberate and concerted effort to disrupt our electoral process in the run up to the 2016 election. Based on my experience with Russian info ops, I believe this happened. I do not know it happened because I don’t have access to the intelligence. I don’t appreciate others trying to give me illegal access to this intelligence. I still have faith in the system to weather this storm and do the right thing. 

What the Russians did was not a crime against humanity or an act of war. Compared to what we did to Ukraine, it was elegant and bloodless. No, it was just hardball international politics and I don’t begrudge them for trying. But I do want them to know that any effort to try anything like this again will be quickly discovered and it will cost them more than they hoped to gain. 

But Russian info ops do not constitute a crisis requiring illegal leaking of classified information. If Trump and/or those around him colluded with the Russians in the execution of this info op, I want them and the Russians spanked hard. If the Trump administration is actively seeking to suppress the investigation and protect the Russians, I want them spanked. Either of these cases would mean that the reins of power are currently in the hands of enemies of the Constitution. Although I have faith that our system can deal with this possibility, perhaps Winner and other leakers lack this faith. Perhaps, as misguided as this is, they choose to honor their sworn oaths to the Constitution rather than their signature on a legal agreement. It doesn’t matter. If caught and tried they will all probably face prison time... that is unless they are high level muckety-mucks

TTG

 

Another traitorous US spy

"The Washington Post and NBC News have confirmed that the Intercept has published the material allegedly leaked by Winner. Very recently, in fact: On Monday, the digital organization published a rather eventful exclusive under the headline, “Top-Secret NSA Report Details Russian Hacking Effort Days Before 2016 Election.” The piece detailed a complicated and industrious effort by Russian military intelligence to hack into a company that supports voting systems in various states. “The report indicates that Russian hacking may have penetrated further into U.S. voting systems than was previously understood,” write Matthew Cole, Richard Esposito, Sam Biddle and Ryan Grim."  Washpost

--------------

OK.  It is mildly interesting that the GRU (Russian Military Intelligence) experimented with electronic penetration of US companies connected to the electoral process.

It is also annoying that this particular air head decided to launch her own campaign of "resistance" to the Trump Administration by e-mailing Glenn Greenwald's publication  an NSA document that she was sworn to protect from public view.  "But, I have to have clean water and air to breathe."  This is a typical talking point that such people babble when all else fails.

But, pilgrims, none of that is important when compared to the massive intelligence defeat suffered by the US in that the GRU now know that US SIGINT has been reading their internal communications traffic for years.  Given this revelation and the earlier CNN "scoop" given to Dana Bash by US spies concerning US penetration of Russian diplomatic communications I would think it likely that the Russian government will conclude that ALL their communications are compromised.  Having reached that conclusion they will set out to build completely new systems for the whole Russian government.

It will take billions of dollars and years of work to break into these new systems,  Until that is achieved US intelligence will be rather close to blind.  Some of you will rejoice in that, but you should not.  The insight provided by SIGINT into potentially hostile acts and motives have often kept the world from nuclear war.  pl 

 

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/erik-wemple/wp/2017/06/06/did-the-intercept-bungle-nsa-leak/?utm_term=.5a4d1262874e

 http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/30/politics/russians-trump-campaign-information/

 

The Trump Doctrine - CBS News & WSJ

"The president embarked on his first foreign trip with a clear-eyed outlook that the world is not a “global community” but an arena where nations, nongovernmental actors and businesses engage and compete for advantage. We bring to this forum unmatched military, political, economic, cultural and moral strength. Rather than deny this elemental nature of international affairs, we embrace it."  McMaster & Cohn

--------------

This oped appeared in the WSJ on 30 May.  I missed it.

Listen up, pilgrims!  This is important!  Even Fareed Zakariya, the ultimate Globalist took note of this paragraph on his weekly Sunday call to the faithful to rally to the left.  It is interesting to watch him discuss Islam as though knew little of it.  It is interesting because his father is a Sunni 'alim back at the home ranch in India.  Does anyone know anything of Zakariya pere? 

The sentiments expressed in the McMaster/Cohn oped are a radical departure from globalist internationalism.  Wow!  The world is an "arena" and not a "community?"  No wonder DJT talked trash to the NATO bosses!  He sees them as his competitors, not his henchmen.  Yo momma!   He's from NY City.  He could have "gone there."

Logically, this set of attitudes leads to competitive mercantilism and withdrawal from blocs that do not directly improve US economic and military power positions.  Israel is probably safe.  They have a stranglehold on both major political parties, but all the other people looking for love in the US had better be useful in this brave new world.

Will the American people like this phenomenon?  I think they will outside the territory of the bi-coastal elites.  Fox News interviewed some people in a diner in Plainfield, Connecticut, a town of 15,000  in the NE part of the state.  SWMBO (my genealogist) tells me that some of my ancestors founded the place in the early 17th Century.  I took an internet tour of the town.  There doesn't seem to be any source of employment in the town except for the Connecticut Turnpike (toll takers and maintenance) and a little company that makes cast iron wood burning stoves for the cutesy crowd in Boston. etc. who probably voted for Clinton.  The old folks in the diner all voted for Trump.  pl   

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/h-r-mcmaster-gary-cohn-pen-op-ed-on-meaning-of-america-first/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-first-doesnt-mean-america-alone-1496187426

The Khanassar road seems to be widening. AMN

 

 "The Islamic State (ISIL) suffered a major setback, Saturday, when the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) captured their last stronghold in the Aleppo Governorate.

For more than three years, the Islamic State has occupied the town of Maskanah, which is located near the provincial border of the Al-Raqqa Governorate.

Due to its location along the Aleppo-Raqqa Highway and its proximity to the large city of Tabaqa, Maskanah was an invaluable town to the Islamic State forces.

With its loss on Saturday, the Islamic State now finds themselves on the verge of being completely expelled from northern Syria, pending Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) upcoming Raqqa City offensive.

Once Raqqa City is lost, the Islamic State will no longer have a presence in northern Syria."  AMN

----------------

 TTG and I have bemoaned the narrowness of the Ihtriyia/Khannasar track to Aleppo.  This seems to us to have been a commander's nightmare.  The question would be "how do I keep this damned road open with Jihadi Idlib Province on the west and IS held parts of Aleppo  Province to the east.  The road is perpetually threatened. (Hang in there.  Look at a map.)

SAA, led by the Tiger forces, has been advancing to the SE in east Aleppo Province. Yesterday they captured Maskanah and presumably will continue to advance until they meet the SDF near Tabqah.

In the process of this advance they are progressively "uncovering" the Ithriya/Khanassar/Aleppo Road to the west.  This is a great benefit to the Syrian Government.  pl  

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/map-east-aleppo-battle-isils-loss-maskanah/

"The jihadi war will last forever." - Republished 4 June 2017

I have been asked to put something up that states my position as to "why they hate us."  I have written a lot about this kind of thing.  you can find all that in the SST archive.  pl

-------------
Implicit in the rhetoric concerning this new phase of anti-jihadi warfare is the notion that "jihadism" is a passing phenomenon that can be destroyed and which will disappear as irrelevant to "modern" life.  It is also said that jihadism is "un-Islamic," a distortion and misrepresentation of a great religion.  In fact, jihadism is inherent in some views of what Islam is.

Islam, as I have often said, is a religion of laymen.  It has no hierarchy, no clergy, no sacraments.  There are only groups of Muslims of varying size who agree on what Islam and most especially what Islamic religious law (sharia) is.  This process of forming consensus (ijma') groups is endless and inevitable.  Some will say that Shia Islam has a hierarchy.  It does not.  In fact, The howza ("college" of Shia scholars) is merely another expression of consensus, in this case of consensus among scholars "elected" by acclamation from among their fellows.  The "authority" created by such acclamation is fleeting as each man's opinions are automatically disregarded after his death.  Much the same thing is true of the great Ulema (scholars) of Sunni Islam.

Therefore, for one group of Muslims, however large, to say that the consensus of some other group of Muslims is invalid or "un-Islamic" is merely vanity on a grand scale.  That is particularly true if the smaller, armed and violent jihad inclined group of Muslims are willing to fight, kill and die for their views.  Perfumed and elegantly dressed Muslim ladies are frquently heard expressing such disapproval of jihadis.  More vanity is expressed in this.  More vanity.

The spokesmen for the various parts of the US governnment are now engaged in telling the world that this unfavored group or that unfavored group are un-Islamic or the like.  More vanity.

The corpus of Islamic scripture contained in the Qur'an and the wildly varying collections of hadith (traditions of the early Muslims) is so vast that it contains ample justification for any sort of view desired.

We can kill our way to a state of relative quiet in which the jihadi impulse is suppressed for some time, perhaps a long time but that is all we can do.  Until the Muslims taken as a whole themselves see the futility of the unending struggle against the kuffar (unbelievers) we will always face the prospect of more violent jihad.  pl

al-tanf is a growing problem

 

"The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) continued slowly advancing the Bir Qasab and Al-Dakwa in the desert east of the Syrian capital of Damascus.

Furthermore, warplanes of the Russian and Syrian air forces continued targeting US-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) militants in the area aiming to force them to withdraw from the area.

The US-led coalition announced it had reinforced its forces in the Al-Tanf area on the Syrian-Iraqi border. The coalition also said that it views the “Iranian-backed forces” as a threat to its troops in Syria, which are fighting ISIS.

According to the commander of Jaish Maghawir al-Thawra, Muhannad al-Tala, there are currently 150 US soldiers in the Al-Tanf, along with soldiers from five other countries of the US-led coalition, including two Arab countries.

According to unconfirmed reports, Syrian government forces are currently located 40 kilometers from the town of Al-Tanf.

It is believed that the current priority of the SAA is to secure the capital Damascus through regaining control of Al-Dakwa and Bir Qasab.

Later, Syrian forces might attempt to advance toward the Iraqi border by capturing ISIS-held areas in northern Al-Tanf instead of confronting with US forces."  southfront

---------------

Mattis or someone else at the national command level has decided to reinforce US coalition forces at the base near al-tanf.  It would seem that the idea is to retain control of SE Syria for the purpose of training local forces to use against the Syrian government.   IS forces in the area seem implausible as the projected enemy for these forces trained at al-tanf.  The R+6 is fighting IS just north of al-tanf.  If IS forces were the projected enemy the logical US coalition attitude would be to cooperate with R+6.  pl

 

https://southfront.org/us-led-coalition-reinforces-its-troops-in-al-tanf-amid-syrian-army-advances-in-nearby-area/

 

Free Associating in California. by Decameron

“Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York, Governor Jerry Brown of California, and Governor Jay Inslee of Washington announced the formation of the United States Climate Alliance after the announcement [by Trump to withdraw from the Paris Agreement], stating that they would convene states committed to upholding the Paris Agreement…”

The question, “what is Gerry Brown smoking?” has been around for decades.  He now says that California, New York, Washington state and others will join together to override the President of the US, and join the Paris Climate Agreement independent of the decision of the United States government.  That, folks, is not legal.  Under the US Constitution, the power of treaties lies exclusively with the President of the United States; under it, the Senate can ratify a treaty or not, but not make its own treaties. And, emphatically, states have no power or competency to enter into treaties.  In addition, in 1799, a decade after the ratification of the Constitution, there was 18 U.S. Code, Section 953, popularly known at the Logan Act, which reads:

“Private correspondence with foreign governments

“Any citizen of the United States, wherever he may be, who, without authority of the United States, directly or indirectly commences or carries on any correspondence or intercourse with any foreign government or any officer or agent thereof, with intent to influence the measures or conduct of any foreign government or of any officer or agent thereof, in relation to any disputes or controversies with the United States, or to defeat the measures of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.”

The Logan Act still has the force of law, despite the fact that there has never been a successful criminal prosecution under it.  The intent of the act was always to prevent private parties from trying to undercut the policy of the federal government. And there have been repeated positive citations of the act in decisions by US Federal courts in both civil and criminal cases.

Some Democrats and MSM pundits were screaming, “Logan Act” violations about former National Security advisor Michael Flynn, and other presidential advisors after Trump won the November 2016 election.  Haven’t heard these pundits mention that in context of Gov. Brown, who said today, “I believe the rest of the world will mobilize, will galvanize our efforts."   Will other nations really make an agreement with California and its free associating alliance? Some argue that the Paris Climate Agreement is not a treaty, so the Constitution doesn’t apply. Really?

Governor Jay Inslee of Washington announced the formation of the United States Climate Alliance after the announcement [by Trump to withdraw from the Paris Agreement], stating that they would convene states committed to upholding the Paris Agreement…"   Decameron

Open Thread - 1 June 2017

pl

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 20170601 by Patrick Armstrong

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI is dead but he lives on in three ways. He didn't invent jihadism or takfirism but he gave it a key lift by supporting the mujahidin in Afghanistan in order to entice the USSR to intervene: the disastrous policy of encouraging jihadism in one place arrogantly thinking you could stop it spreading to another. This is something he apparently never regretted (at least not in 1998: "What is more important in world history? The Taliban or the collapse of the Soviet empire?). His obsessive anti-Russian stance remains embedded in the USA as this absurd Time magazine cover shows. He had some influence on Obama and one can legitimately ask whether his silly view about the importance of Ukraine to Russia was a prime mover in the Ukrainian catastrophe. There are some indications that he was beginning to realise how dangerous (and unsuccessful) this policy was becoming. But, probably, the longest-lasting legacy, though neither to his liking nor wishing, is the resistance to US hegemony taking concrete form in many places but most powerfully in Beijing and Moscow. As he said in his key book in which he thought to lay out the game plan to keep the USA on top forever: "the most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia... Averting this contingency, however remote it may be, will require a display of U.S. geostrategic skill..." Neither remote nor skilful enough I guess. He should have paid more attention to Newton's Third Law of Diplomacy: if you push countries around, they will push back. An exceptional failure all round.

NATO. When the chief member tells the others that they're not "paying their fair share" and their real job is the Daesh threat, you have to wonder what is the longevity of an organisation whose members have never "paid their fair share" and spend their time obsessing about "Russian threats". Pay for what, by the way? Defence against the "Russian threat"? Overthrowing governments in the Middle East?

NATO CRUMBLE. We have here a very interesting poll conducted by an American GONGO. Spun as discovering "Vulnerabilities to Russian Influence", it actually shows how tarnished the Atlanticist idol has become. Majorities in Slovakia (75%), the Czech Republic (62%) and Hungary (54%) want security cooperation with Russia and over a third of Poles (!) agree. They're worrying about the erosion of traditional values, they're watching more Russian media and they're feeling less "European". None of this has anything to do with Russian "disinformation" of course: it's an entirely homemade failure. More Brzezinski legacy.

EUROPE-US. When the chief member of the EU says that automatic agreement with Washington is no longer a given and that Europe must "stand on our own two feet" you have to wonder what will next happen in an organisation that has been pretty obedient to Washington's diktat in recent years. Think of how much the Ukraine mess and Russian sanctions have hurt, and will continue to hurt, Europe. Do they still have feet, by the way? More Brzezinski legacy.

RUSSIAN MILITARY POWER. Some time ago there was a story about a single Russian aircraft shutting down the electronics of a US warship. I put it in the "Who Knows?" file. But now and again something else appears. The expensive US new battlefield communications system is, apparently, worthless. Wonder how they found out? Not while fighting people with no EW abilities, air defence, artillery or anything much but determination and high explosives.

LOGICAL CONUNDRUM. Russia is wrong to say that NATO is a threat to it, but NATO is right to say that Russia is a threat to it. Russia is wrong not to take NATO's word for it, but NATO is right not to take Russia's word for it. Meditate on this: a koan for our time.

MH17. Russian sources have published documents claimed to be from Ukrainian intelligence sources. They describe a coverup after a Ukrainian fighter plane shot it down. (Original Совершенно секретно) (English) I merely put this out – I don't know: there are plenty of fakes around. But I do not believe a Buk shot it down: a Buk warhead has about 6000 lethal fragments and detonation a metre or two from the aircraft would have left a lot more fragments in the wreckage than were found. The Dutch report is self-contradictory by the way.

MISSING. Amnesty International, citing a 2016 US government audit, says Washington failed to monitor over $1B worth of arms and other military equipment transfers to Kuwait and Iraq. Would these US weapons found in Aleppo be some of the "unmonitored" items do you suppose? More Brzezinski legacy.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. 1000 Russian bots on Facebook.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer