When Russia’s call for de-escalation zones first came out, my first thought, like many, was that Putin was throwing in the towel. Then I thought of several other possibilities.
1. It appeared to be a continuation of Russia’s attempt to separate the irreconcilable jihadists from the Syrian opposition. I doubt much of this opposition remains, but there must be some given that some are still coming over to the government side now and then. They are certainly not militarily significant. In any case, RT said this moderate opposition would then be directed against the jihadists “with the support of the guarantor countries.”
2. Russia’s plan for de-escalation zones was an aggressive forecheck of the longstanding US-Saudi plan for safe areas. Pulling Turkey into this alternate plan by making it one of the guarantor countries would greatly weaken the US-Saudi plan and stall its implementation.
3. The plan’s aim could be part of the larger effort to neutralize Turkish support of the jihadists and pull Turkey further into the Russian sphere.
4. As long as Russia is unwilling to deploy significant ground forces to decisively finish the job militarily, this de-escalation zone plan seemed to be the next best move. If Russia and Syria manage to call the shots by including Turkey as a guarantor country, this could go a long way in isolating the jihadists and focusing the fight against them.
In the last few days it has become clear that the de-escalation zone plan is the first stage of a major strategic shift in the conduct of the war in Syria. This is an economy of force move in the western part of Syria executed to concentrate R+6 forces for a push to the west as explicitly stated by Russian General Rudskoy a few days ago.
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“After the signing of the memorandum on the creation of zones of de-escalation in Syria, the main efforts of the Russian Air Force will be directed to the development of an offensive to the east of Palmyra and the subsequent release of Deir ez-Zor, said Colonel-General Sergei Rudskoy, chief of the Main Operations Directorate of the RF Armed Forces General Staff.
"The establishment of zones of de-escalation will allow government troops to liberate a significant number of troops." The Russian Air Force will continue to support the Syrian armed forces to destroy the bandit formations of the international terrorist organization DAISH (the Arab name of the terrorist organization IGIL, banned in Russia), "Rudskoy said.
Another task of the VKS, according to Rudskoy, will be the liberation of the northeastern territories in the province of Aleppo along the Euphrates River.” (РОССИЙСКАЯ ГАЗЕТА)
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Al Masdar News reported that Russian support will also include ground forces. “According to the military source, the Russian special forces will be embedded with the Syrian Arab Army’s 5th Legion and Tiger Forces for the entire duration of the offensive.” We don’t know if this will entail embedded advisors or Spetsnaz units performing their traditional reconnaissance-sabotage roles for the larger SAA formations. Perhaps it will be both.
Other Russian support consists of a “new counter-partisan special detachment from the countries of the former USSR” called TURAN. According to “Русская весна,” a detachment of up to 400 men of this 800 to 1200 strong TURAN unit are prepared to immediately support an SAA offensive from rural Aleppo towards Deir Ezzor.
The SAA forces massing for this offensive include the Tiger Forces and the 5th Corps. I’m sure there are others. Hezbollah forces are also returning to the Palmyra front. Al Masdar News says that “Suheil Al-Hassan, commander-in-chief of the Tiger Forces, will reportedly command two simultaneous offensive in eastern Aleppo and eastern Palmyra against the Islamic State.” The idea of two main thrusts caused me a little concern before I saw this more as an envelopment to either cut off the IS jihadists in the vast open area east of Homs or force them to withdraw towards the Euphrates. Efforts within the Deir Ezzor pocket to expand the area under government control are intensifying with some success. The SAA, surely with Russian air support, are preparing a force of several hundred seasoned Republican Guards to reinforce the pocket by airmobile insertion. This is a bold plan, but in my opinion a plan with a good chance of working.
The operation to liberate Deir Ezzor will be named Operation Lavender. Why? An observer named Wael Al Hussaini explained on twitter. "Back in 2012 when Deir Ezzor was about to fall a famous Republican Guards commander "Ali Khuzam" was among the first to arrive to defend the city along with General Issam Zahreddine. Unfortunately, General Ali unfortunately was killed defending the city. The general's last name in Arabic is خزام which means Lavender, so this operation will be a tribute to him and to the other heroes who fell there defending Syria."
The objective of this offensive goes beyond the relief of Deir Ezzor. It is a drive to the Iraqi border. The R+6 obviously sees the coalition effort to take the east of the country from both Rojava and Jordan as a greater threat than the jihadis in Idlib. I don't know what Putin has working with Turkey, but I guess he thinks he can handle the sultan. I also think Putin and Assad are confident they can eventually work something out with the Rojava Kurds. But the US-Saudi (and Israeli) plan for safe areas and cutting the Shia crescent, as Elijah Magnier writes, is something that must be addressed now. Iraq sees this as well. The Iraqi Army and the PMU just launched an offensive to take the countryside west of Haditha. This is part of an Iraqi effort to eventually take the border crossing at Al-Qa’im.
In retrospect, I think the decision not to continue an offensive towards Idlib after the liberation of Aleppo and to advance east to cut off the Turks and their jihadis at al-Bab was a result of this view that foreign incursions into Syrian territory are viewed as a greater immediate threat to Assad and Putin that the Idlib jihadis.
TTG
At least in terms of protecting the Kurds from further Turkish assaults, Russia is helping the US protect the Rojava folks, by their presence in the Western Kurdish areas. The impetuous sultan goofed this time.
Is there any info on the strength of the forces the US is putting forward out of Jordan towards Deir ez Zor? Would they dare tackle the R+6 when they get close to that target or back off?
Posted by: Annem | 10 May 2017 at 02:35 PM
Annem,
I've seen numbers like 2,000 or so rebel fighters. A small group of under 100, Magwahir Al-Thawra, was the former New Syrian Army which got its ass handed to it by IS shortly after it was armed by the US. That small group is now the funnel to arm the other groups in the area. The main opposition forces are the Ahmad Abdo Forces, Jaysh Osoud Al-Sharkiyah and Jaysh Ahrar Al-Ashaer. I don't think they'ed do very well against the SAA and Russian/Syrian air support. It's all a matter of getting there first.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 10 May 2017 at 03:15 PM
Thanks, Colonel Lang, for the heads up on the needed edits. I think I got them now.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 10 May 2017 at 03:29 PM
TTG: Thanks for the fascinating analysis.
Posted by: Matthew | 10 May 2017 at 03:40 PM
With palm of hand face down level with ground (north/south)you slowly make a fist.and squeeqe till the juice comes running out the sides(east /west).called the grip of tyre fitters hand.movements east and west are a result of north to south pressure.
Posted by: Anonymous | 10 May 2017 at 04:24 PM
Annem,
According to Al Masar of a couple days ago: The Syrians overflew a drone & saw 200 vehicles parked just over the border. Apparently that has Damascus excited. I looked at the photos but couldn't tell much...
Posted by: Jony Kanuck | 10 May 2017 at 04:48 PM
TTG a very well done comprehensive, reasoned analysis, thank you
Posted by: kooshy | 10 May 2017 at 04:52 PM
Jony Kanuck,
Those vehicles belong to US, French and Jordanian forces in the ares for a joint exercise. Having those forces there obviously is a cause for concern. An exercise would be a convenient cover for an invasion, but it does not mean that an invasion is imminent.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 10 May 2017 at 04:54 PM
I also suspect this will open the door for Egypt and possibly others to send more man power to keep an eye on the safe zones so that Syrians can be redeployed to do the heavy fighting.
Posted by: BraveNewWorld | 10 May 2017 at 06:59 PM
Egypt? They cannot even maintain law and order in Sinai.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 10 May 2017 at 07:42 PM
Are the Gulfies paying for any future invasion?
Is US being rented by the Gulfies?
Just like Egypt and Jordan are rented by US?
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 10 May 2017 at 07:43 PM
On this we agree. They will, however, hold Cairo.
Posted by: Castellio | 10 May 2017 at 09:12 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/06/syria-kurds-raqqa-mediterranen after Raqqa the Kurds will conquer Idlib because now we notice that it is occupied by Alqaeda.
Posted by: charly | 10 May 2017 at 10:15 PM
TTG,
Thank you for these detailed postings on the situation in Syria.
I find them very illuminating.
Posted by: FB Ali | 10 May 2017 at 11:26 PM
This is brilliant analysis. Really brilliant.
You say: "In the last few days it has become clear that the de-escalation zone plan is the first stage of a major strategic shift in the conduct of the war in Syria..."
Yes, and the arab media has created a plausible excuse for the shift, that is, the possibility of an invasion from the Jordan-Syria border.
Does Putin really think there will be an invasion?
Probably not, but it justifies the shifting of troops to the east.
It looks to me like the R+6 is going to let the SDF capture Raqqa while the SAA tightens their grip on Deir Ezzor.
Deir Ezzor is the key. It makes it impossible for the SDF to establish a no-fly zone over all the territory east of the Euphrates.
I think that might be the gameplan. Turn the Euphrates into a modernday Berlin Wall and launch attacks on the Assad regime from a US-protected safe zone.
Posted by: plantman | 10 May 2017 at 11:30 PM
@TTG - no the tanks seen in those drone pictures (first published in Al-Akhbar) are old M-60s and alike. It is a depot/junk yard of the Jordan army and most of the equipment there has been standing at the same place since 2010. Its some 45km from the Syrian border. If serviceable (dubious) it is enough stuff to equip a full armored brigade.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/pictures-syrian-drones-spot-hundreds-us-jordanian-armored-vehicles-border/
Posted by: b | 10 May 2017 at 11:37 PM
b,
Thanks for the clarification. I just assumed Jony Kanuck was referring to the buildup of forces for the EAGER LION annual training exercise going on in Jordan now.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 10 May 2017 at 11:48 PM
Hmm, the Russians appear to want to settle this thing on the cheap. It has a very strong chance of backfiring given the strangely fortuitous timing of offensive operations between the Idlib Jihadists and their ideological cousins just west of Aleppo in the past.
The narrow Khanasser route linking Aleppo to the rest of Syria is going to be pressed by IS, and it is staffed by flaky NDF militias. Fire force units of the SAA will have to be diverted once again, when the route gets cut.
The Jordanians are conspiring with the southern "rebels" and US advisers to concentrate a force of unknown size and intentions.
IMO, this will not be settled without a significant Russian ground force.
Posted by: Peter in Toronto | 11 May 2017 at 12:35 AM
This seems the location. Matches the pics and location in the almasdarnews article b has linked to.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=32.032473&lon=36.188986&z=16&m=b
Posted by: Peter AU | 11 May 2017 at 12:36 AM
Great analysis, but I have a question re "and Putin" in the final sentence.
Russia entered the Syrian war only at the last minute to safeguard it's vital security interests there. The DEZ plan seems to be a low risk strategy to further that aim (given proximity of the zones to it's bases) and to achieve the goals described. What I am not seeing is the logical leap to Russia calculating that it's vital security interests now justify further commitment with ground forces to territory far the the East. Assad & maybe Iran, sure, but I cannot see the reward that justifies the increased risk of it's enemies engineering another Afghanistan for Russia? Alternatively, if Syria *as a whole* has always been judged vital to Russian interests, why did it not intervene much earlier?
All insights most welcome, many thanks.
Posted by: Account Deleted | 11 May 2017 at 05:16 AM
Right on cue; Patrick Armstrong on the perils of underestimating Russia:
https://patrickarmstrong.ca/2017/05/10/underestimate-russia-and-be-surprised/
Posted by: Account Deleted | 11 May 2017 at 06:17 AM
The SAA victory at Aleppo ought to have been followed up by an aggressive pursuit of demoralized rebels into Idlib but that victory and the imminent collapse of ISIS altered the thinking of the outside powers arrayed against Assad. Accepting his survival for now they seek to hand over the eastern half of Syria to Western proxies after the ISIS defeat. The cease fire in the west lets the SAA effectively deal with this new and more immediate strategic threat to the integrity of their country. Idlib has to wait for now but the cease fire will not last and Al Qaida's day of reckoning will come.
Posted by: Peter Reichard | 11 May 2017 at 06:44 AM
Barbara Ann,
If anything, I should have added Khamenei's name to the list. The US-Saudi plan for a safe area is a plan to break the Shia crescent and to provide a base for further Wahabbi adventurism. This directly threatens Russia's southern flank. The US-Saudi plan threatens Iran even more directly. I'm sure Russia and Iran would prefer a tier of friendly or at least neutral countries in this region. A warm water port in a rump Syria would be a small consolation if Syria was partitioned in this way.
Russia's reticence to commit forces to this war remains intact even today. Both Colonel Lang and I have lamented the resultant shortage in forces to crush the jihadis once and for all. I don't think Russia has the same appetite for military adventurism that the Borg seems to relish.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 11 May 2017 at 09:00 AM
Here's a take on the situation...the unrest in the area is a continuation of the Sunni-Shia conflict ongoing since 634AD. IMO, we (Russia, US) need to step back from this tar-baby and let them fight it out. Shut down any and all oil sales from the ME...let's see them finance their sectarian war without oil revenues. Barring that, we ought to leave Syria to Russia (they've been their client for an eternity), and concentrate on Iraq. We broke it, we fix it...but be prepared for a lengthy occupation. (Imagine that we left Germany after a year or two after the end of WW2...imagine the outcome) Neither side complains about how the other is handling the action (poison gas etc)..the rest of the world will scream loud enough. Plenty of opportunity for cross-border cooperative ops. The US-Russian relationship does NOT have to be an adversarial one.
Posted by: NB Peterson | 11 May 2017 at 09:35 AM
NB Peterson,
I disagree. It's more a matter of Wahhabi jihadists against all. I think we should largely pull out of the region militarily including Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf. We should stop our foolish policy of trying to destroy Iran and seek amicable,or at least neutral, relationships with all. The one exception is that we should tell the Saudis to pound sand up their asses. Their support of jihadists is a festering sore on the face of the Earth.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 11 May 2017 at 09:49 AM