When Intelligence Isn't - By Patrick Armstrong

I know a lot of people on this blog have experience in the intelligence world. I would be very interested in hearing what you think of my theory.

In my career in the Canadian government I was never formally in "intelligence" but I did participate in writing many "intelligence assessments". Facebook, Twitter and other kinds of social media didn't much exist at that time but, even if they had, I can't imagine that we would have ever used them as sources of evidence: social media is, to put it mildly, too easy to fake. In writing intelligence assessments, while we did use information gathered from intelligence sources (ie secret), probably more came from what was rather pompously called OSInt (Open Source Intelligence; in other words, stuff you don't need a security clearance to learn). What was, however, the most important part of creating an assessment was the long process of discussion in the group. Much talk and many rewrites produced a consensus opinion.

A typical intelligence assessment would start with a question – what's going on with the economy, or political leadership or whatever of Country X – and would argue a conclusion based on facts. So: question, argument, conclusion. And usually a prediction – after all the real point of intelligence is to attempt to reduce surprises. The intelligence assessment then made its way up the chain to the higher ups; they may have ignored or disagreed with the conclusions but, as far as I know, the assessment, signed off by the group that had produced it, was not tampered with: I never heard of words being put into our mouths. The intelligence community regards tampering with an intelligence assessment to make it look as if the authors had said something different as a very serious sin. All of this is preparation to say that I know what an intelligence assessment is supposed to look like and that I have seen a lot of so-called intelligence assessments coming out of Washington that don't look like the real thing.

Intelligence is quite difficult. I like the analogy of trying to solve a jigsaw puzzle when you don't know what the picture is supposed to be, you don't know how many pieces the puzzle has and you're not sure that the pieces that you have are actually from the same puzzle. Let us say, for example, that you intercept a phonecall in which the Leader of Country X is telling one of his flunkeys to do something. Surely that's a gold standard? Well, not if the Leader knew you were listening (and how would you know if he did?); nor if he's someone who changes his mind often. There are very few certainties in the business and many many opportunities for getting it wrong.

So real raw intelligence data is difficult enough to evaluate; social media, on the other hand, has so many credibility problems that it is worthless; worthless, that is, except as evidence of itself (ie a bot campaign is evidence that somebody has taken the effort to do one). It is extremely easy to fake: a Photoshopped picture can be posted and spread everywhere in hours; bots can create the illusion of a conversation; phonecall recordings are easily stitched together: here are films of Buks, here are phonecalls. (But, oddly enough, all the radars were down for maintenance that day). It's so easy, in fact, that it's probably easier to create the fake than to prove that it is a fake. There is no place in an intelligence assessment for "evidence" from something as unreliable as social media.

An "intelligence assessment" that uses social media is suspect.

So why are there so many "intelligence assessments" on important issues depending on social media "evidence"?

I first noticed social media used as evidence during the MH17 catastrophe when Marie Harf, the then US State Department spokesman, appealed to social media and "common sense". She did so right after the Russians had posted radar evidence (she hadn't "seen any of that" said she). At the time I assumed that she was just incompetent. It was only later, when I read the "intelligence assessments" backing up the so-called Russian influence on the US election, that I began to notice the pattern.

There are indications during the Obama Administration that the intelligence professionals were becoming restive. Here are some examples that suggest that "intelligence assessments" were either not being produced by the intelligence professionals or – see the last example – those that were were then modified to please the Boss.

• Shortly after the MH17 crash, a group of intelligence operators said "we don't know a name, we don't know a rank and we're not even 100 per cent sure of a nationality". Eight months later, they apparently had nothing to add to that statement. A year later still nothing. But US Secretary of State Kerry began immediately speaking of an "enormous amount of evidence" of Russian involvement. What evidence? Not intelligence assessments, it seems.

• It was said that intelligence people tried to stop the Libya attack: "You should see these internal State Department reports that are produced in the State Department that go out to the Congress. They're just full of stupid, stupid facts."

• There are indications from her e-mails that then US Secretary of State Clinton listened more to private advisors and newspaper editorials than intelligence sources.

• The former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Michael Flynn, confirmed that the DIA had warned the Obama Administration that extremist salafists were the major force driving the insurgency in Syria and that an ISIS-like organisation could be created. Here he says that he thinks the Administration took a "wilful decision" to ignore the warning.

• In September 2015 it was revealed that 50 military intelligence analysts had formally complained that their conclusions were being distorted "to adhere to the administration’s public line that the U.S. is winning the battle against ISIS and al Nusra, al Qaeda’s branch in Syria".

If one adds the reliance on social media to these indications, it seems a reasonable suspicion that these so-called intelligence assessments are not real intelligence assessments produced by intelligence professionals but are post facto justifications written up by people who know what the Boss wants to hear.

We have already seen what appears to have been the first example of this with the "social media and common sense" of MH17. And, from that day to this, not a shred of Kerry's "evidence" have we seen. The long-awaited Dutch report was, as I said at the time, only a modified hangout and very far from convincing.

Russia "invaded" Ukraine so many times it became a joke. The "evidence" was the usual social media accompanied by blurry satellite photos. So bad are the photos, in fact, that someone suggested that "Russian artillery" were actually combine harvesters. In one of the rare departures from the prescribed consensus, a former (of course) German Chief of Staff was utterly unconvinced by thse pictures and explained why. By contrast, here is a satellite photo of Russian aircraft in Syria; others here. Sharply focussed and in colour. The "Russian invasion" photos were lower quality than the Cuban Missile Crisis photos taken six decades earlier! A hidden message? See below.

The so-called Syrian government CW attack on Ghouta in August 2013 was similarly based on social media; heavily dependent, in fact, on "Bellingcat". Quite apart from the improbability of Assad ordering a CW attack on a suburb a short drive away from arriving international inspectors, the whole story was adequately destroyed by Seymour Hersh. (Bellingcat's "proofs", by the way, can be safely ignored – see his faked-up "evidence" that Russians attacked an aid convoy in Syria.)

A dominant story for months has been that Russia somehow influenced the US presidential election. As ever, the Washington Post led the charge and the day after the election told us "Secret CIA assessment says Russia was trying to help Trump win White House". But when we finally saw the "secret assessments" they proved to be laughably damp squibs. The DHS/FBI report of 29 December 2016 carried this stunning disclaimer:

This report is provided “as is” for informational purposes only. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) does not provide any warranties of any kind regarding any information contained within.

Perhaps the most ridiculous part of the DNI report of 6 January 2017 was the space – nearly half – devoted to a rant that had been published four years earlier about the Russian TV channel RT. What that had to do with the Russian state influencing the 2016 election was obscure. But, revealingly, the report included:

We also assess Putin and the Russian Government aspired to help President-elect Trump’s election chances when possible by discrediting Secretary Clinton and publicly contrasting her unfavorably to him. All three agencies agree with this judgment. CIA and FBI have high confidence in this judgment; NSA has moderate confidence.

In other words, DHS told us to ignore its report and the one agency in the US intelligence structure that would actually know about hacking and would have copies of everything – the NSA – wasn't very confident. Both reports were soon torn apart: John McAfee: "I can promise you if it looks like the Russians did it, then I can guarantee you it was not the Russians". (See 10:30). Jeffrey Carr: "Fatally flawed". Julian Assange: not a state actor. Even those who loath Putin trashed them. In any case, as we now know, the NSA can mimic Russians or anyone else.

In April there was another suspiciously timed "CW attack" in Syria and, blithely ignoring that the responders didn't wear any protective gear in what was supposed to be a Sarin attack, the Western media machine wound up its sirens. The intelligence assessment that was released again referred to "credible open source reporting" and even "pro-opposition social media reports" (! – are the authors so disgusted with what they have to write that they leave gigantic hints like that in plain sight?). Then a page of so of how Moscow trying to "confuse" the world community. And so on. This "intelligence assessment" was taken apart by Theodore Postol.

So, we have strong suggestions that the intelligence professionals are being sidelined or having their conclusions altered; we have far too much reliance of social media; is there anything else that we can see? Yes, there is: many of the "intelligence assessments" contain what look like hints by the authors that their reports are rubbish.

• Absurdly poor quality photos (maybe they were combine harvesters!).

• Including a photo of damage to the port engine intake which contradicts the conclusion of the MH-17 report.

• DHS "does not provide any warranties".

• The one agency that would know has only "moderate confidence".

• Irrelevant rants about RT or assumed nefarious Russian intentions.

• "Pro-opposition social media reports".

There are too many of these, in fact, not to notice – not that the Western media has noticed, of course – they rather jump out at you once you look don't they? I don't recall inserting any little such hints into any of the intelligence assessments that I was involved in.

In conclusion, it seems that a well-founded case can be presented that:

• The normal process of producing intelligence assessments was not observed in the above cases;

• "Intelligence assessments" were fabricated relying on social media (one can only assume because there was nothing else);

• In other words, these "intelligence assessments" were not true intelligence assessments; they were (clumsy) efforts written to justify conclusions. ("Hand-picked, seasoned" the Obama Administration's former DNI tells us).

• And then carefully leaked. (So ingrained is the leaking habit it appears that some source in the US intelligence world leaked sensitive data from the recent Manchester bombing to the New York Times.)

• The authors may even have left hints that they were nonsense.

Where done? By whom? That remains to be discovered. More Swamp to be drained.

Comments

[Old Microbiologist]

I am left wondering if any of this actually means anything at all outside the beltway. I recently returned from 2 weeks traveling in the greater southwest, an area perhaps even poorer than much of Africa, and no Americans I spoke with had a clue about any of it. They mostly seemed focused on getting along with their lives and all of this stuff was very far away from real life. One thing is for certain and that is no Congressman ever steps foot into these regions.

[turcopolier]

Patrick Armstrong

In re JK's supposed call to the Russia ambassador you are saying that maybe JK discussed his liaison proposal on the phone rather than at a meeting at Trump Tower with Flynn sitting there? pl

[turcopolier]

Patrick Armstrong

"The question was did he still; a question that I think reasonable people could disagree about" IMO there is no doubt that they (Iraq) did not still have a nuclear program, a chemical program and the bio weapons program was never anything more than research. I was still in government after the first Gulf War and was in a position to know that in conjunction with the UN inspectors we all thoroughly destroyed these programs. as I explained in "Drinking the Koolaid" the implications made by the Bush 43 Administrations as to the continued existence of these programs were known by them to completely false wen they made their lying statements on TV. The culprits being Cheney, Condoleeza Rice and many others. pl

[Mark Chapman]

Speaking of MH-17, Sputnik now claims that Russia has copies of SBU documents - leaked to them by an undisclosed source - which prove that Ukraine took energetic and aggressive steps to cover up what it knew was a criminal act on its own part.

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201705241053929523-ukraine-mh17-documents/

Sputnik is clear that it is not vouching for the authenticity of the documents, but scans of them are available for perusal. Of course the western analysis camp will scream that they are fakes just because they are so convenient to the Russian case, but I prefer to think of them as timely reminders that once something is in writing and the possibility there may be another copy exists - either electronically or otherwise - it's never really gone no matter how energetic your efforts to destroy all traces of it. I've always believed Ukraine did it; the only question for me was if it was deliberate, or an accident which was quickly repurposed. Much hangs on the answer, especially if it is eventually made public.

Epiphanously, at about the same time, Australia and its fellow Great Democracies are redoubling their efforts to gin up an international tribunal to try Russia and Russian soldiers in absentia for the murders of the MH17 passengers and crew, with their guilt a foregone conclusion. The circling of the vultures appears to be tightening; I wonder why?

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-affairs/nations-working-to-bring-flight-mh17-killers-to-justice/news-story/c62e6d6827a097d6d860f27a2ca5c01a

On the subject of fake news, I have a similar post up at my own blog, here:

https://marknesop.wordpress.com/2017/05/04/it-is-what-it-isnt-fake-news-comes-of-age-as-ideology-trumps-evidence/#comments

My reference - a previous employee of Pheme, a multinational online project funded by the European Commission to define, evaluate and model fake news - walks us through an example of what he says is fake news generated by Putin apologists. I found it fascinating, not least because he appears to conclude that as soon as an opinion is injected, the item becomes 'fake news' if the opinion does not parallel western ideology.

Patrick never disappoints, and even when he writes something which already has wide acceptance, there is always some detail buried in there which was right in front of your nose, but you didn't notice. In this case, for me, it was the reminder that American satellite photography of Russian targets is nearly always razor-sharp and crisp, while its photography from inside Ukraine looks as if it had been lifted from "The Outer Limits". As he asks, rhetorically - why?

[optimax]

Bart

Thank you.

[Patrick Armstrong]

NO idea. It's the the WaPo so it's probably, at the very most stringent, just a rumour popped out by somebody who heard somebody and knows what the Bezos Blog wants to hear. I mean to say, on some subjects, the only true thing about WaPo, NYT, Economist et al is that they printed it.

[Patrick Armstrong]

I wasn't close to it -- I do know our guys said he didn't have it -- but my personal view was that there might well have been some. But, as it truned out, other than a few bits left over, there wasn't.

[Patrick Armstrong]

A Buk warhead has something like 6000 lethal fragments; if one exploded a metre and a half from the side, there would be a lot more of these fragments in the wreckage than were found. So I've never been a fan of the Buk theory.

[Mark Chapman]

And yet there are a lot of holes in the Ukrainian Air Force fighter theory as well; for one, and airliner is typically bopping along at over 400 knots, around 550 mph. A fighter can do that, of course, and many types have the ceiling although for some bizarre reason, defenders of the theory keep sticking with the SU-25. But most would be struggling and combat engagements at that speed would likely be limited to one pass. It's possible, but sketchy.

If an SA-11 exploded a meter and a half away from the cockpit, most of the fragments would pass right through - an airliner is pretty thin-skinned despite how strong it is, and most of whatever hit it hit the cockpit, much of which is just lexan polycarbonate and which shattered, so we do not have those surfaces to assess for holes.

The part that always bugged me was 'surprise' discoveries after the fact of 'Buk missile parts' in the wreckage. This would absolutely not be the case - the missile, as you know, disintegrates when it explodes and no part of the missile touches the aircraft except for the fragments from the exploded warhead. All pieces of the missile body, engine, stabilizer fins, whatever, as well as all the warhead fragments which did not hit the aircraft at all would fall to earth where the attack occurred. And that was miles from where the plane's wreckage hit the ground.

I'm not sure how it was done, but I am sure it was Ukraine who was responsible. And I am confident the west at least suspects it, as well, and is complicit in covering it up by letting the prime suspect chair the investigation and have unsupervised access to all the evidence.

[Patrick Armstrong]

OK. try this. https://www.sott.net/article/327395-MH-17-inquiry-Episode-5-It-was-shot-down-by-a-MiG
with this
http://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/python-5-air-to-air-missile-aam-rafael-israel

[Procopius]

While I agree with this article, I think the author is confusing propaganda material being passed to the loyal government media with actual "intelligence assessments." The "assessment" of 6 January was certainly an embarrassment, but do you see any indication that anyone remembers it? If these clumsy attempts at persuasion are really reflective of the "intelligence" our "leaders" are getting, then the country is in much worse danger than we had already realized, and not coming from the incompetent clowns in the Trump administration. Unfortunately my own brief exposure to intelligence was 60 years ago and I have no way to assess the current practitioners.

[Procopius]

I keep trying to remember where I saw Powell's speech -- I was living in Thailand at the time (still am), so it must have been on the internet. Anyway, I was appalled, because I am retired Army and I had, prior to that, greatly admired Colin Powell for restoring sanity to military doctrine. I had also believed he was a man of integrity, which is not so often encountered in the ranks of flag officers. It was such a mish-mash of mendacity and unpersuasive argument that I have never believed either Gen. Powell or his former aide COL Lawrence Wilkerson since then.

[sid_finster]

A MiG 29 has a radar signature similar to that of a Su-25.

MiG 29s are in Ukrainian service.

[Thomas]

Interesting that Russia is beginning to finally play this card to the western public.

It is one of the explanations for the Neo Con meltdown and no holds barred (and incompetent) attempt for a Purple and Pink Cupcake coup. Their Ideal Fantasy of Global Domination is falling off the pedestal for a massive face plant. While this story is small piece to the puzzle, it is the keystone.