Operation “Grand Dawn” Post 2 - TTG

Although details are scarce and often conflicting, it appears the R+6 operation to reclaim Syria's southern border is proceeding. It is also about to come face-to-face with the Coalition plan to carve out a safe area in this part of Syria. We shall see who blinks first. 

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“Russian paratroopers and special forces arrived in the Al-Sweida Governorate of southern Syria this week, following the U.S. attack on a pro-government convoy near the Iraqi border-crossing, a military source told Al-Masdar News last night. The Russian military personnel will take the role of advising the Syrian government troops in southern Syria, while also helping to deter any potential response from the U.S. and Jordanian forces that have carved a niche in the Al-Sweida and Homs governorates.

According to some media activists in southern Syria, the Russian forces are planning to build a base along the Al-Sweida Governorate’s border with Jordan; however, this could not be confirmed by Al-Masdar News. Rumors have also surfaced regarding the deployment of the 31st Brigade of the Russian special forces; they are allegedly meant to engage the enemy forces and help the government troops seize the Iraqi border-crossing.”  (AMN)

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This Russian Brigade is the 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade based in Ulyanovsk. The brigade consists of three mechanized infantry battalions (2 air assault, 1 airborne), an artillery battalion (also mechanized), an aviation squadron and other support and combat support units. This brigade forms the core of Russia's immediate response force. In addition to its high state of combat readiness, it is well trained in peace keeping/peace enforcement operations. I have seen no reports of this unit entering combat. However, Russian advisors and spetsnaz target acquisition teams appear to be liberally spread among the SAA, NDF and other units involved in Operation Grand Dawn. There are also enough Russian aircraft and helicopters in the area to make it look like a Moscow air show.

 

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“On Friday, US-backed Jaish Maghawir al-Thawra launched an attack against the Syrian Army in the Zuluf Reserve area in the southeastern Syrian desert in order to regain this strategic point from the Syrian military. However, the attack filed and Jaish Maghawir al-Thawra was not able to capture any point.

Jaish Maghawir al-Thawra targeted the SAA allegedly using a US-made Switchblade suicide drone. It is known that this type of suicide drones are operating only by the US Special Forces.

On Saturday, the SAA deployed the 800th Battalion of the Republican Guards in the eastern Zuluf reserve area on the Syrian-Jordanian border.  The battalion 800 is among the best equipped Syrian forces, and all of its tanks have active protection systems Sarab-1 or 2 and thermal sights, which may indicate that the SAA may be preparing for a possible confrontation with US forces in al-Tanf.”  (South Front)

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 Well so much for our story that these "rebels" were only there to take on the IS jihadis. They are there to take on the SAA with the ultimate goal of toppling the Assad government. All with the full backing of the US-led Coalition and the Trump administration... at least for now.

Those Switchblade suicide drones are not really suicide drones. They are tactical reconnaissance and attack drones with a ten kilometer range that are launched from a hand held launcher. They do carry an explosive charge and are, in effect, small guided missiles. They were recently developed on a SOCOM contract for use by special operations forces. They have been in use in that part of Syria for months. In this recent attack using Switchblade drones in east Suweida, SAA/SSNP forces shot down seven drones. I imagine it was like skeet shooting. In the hollow Army days of the 70s, we would practice engaging target drones with nothing but M-16s and M-60s. We got damned good at it.

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“The US-led coalition warplanes dropped warning leaflets on the Al-Tanf road after Syrian Arab Army (SAA) advanced to the Shehmi area, 55 km from Al-Tanf town. The leaflets warned the SAA from continuing its advance and asked it to withdraw to the Zaza Triangle. They also included sectarian expressions, according to local sources. According to the Syrian TV, the SAA managed to advance in the vicinity of the Scientific Research area in the eastern desert in the Suweida countryside. The SAA also repelled an attack of the US-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the same area. It became clear that the presence of the FSA in this area is to keep threatening Damascus and to prevent the SAA from capturing the Iraqi border area and thus securing the unity of Syrian territory.”  (South Front)

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 The gauntlet has been thrown down. Who will blink first? 

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“The Arabic-language al-Hadath news quoted field sources as saying that the US and Britain have evacuated half of their forces that were deployed in Syria's al-Tanf border region, relocating them to Jordan.

In the meantime, social networks affiliated to the Syrian Army reported that the US and British forces that are backing the terrorists of Aswad al-Sharqiyeh and Jeish al-Thowreh have left their bases in the two regions of Hamimeh and Sukri in Eastern Homs. The sources said that the US forces retreated via al-Tanf border-crossing towards Iraq and the British forces left al-Tanf for Jordan. The sources also said that the entire patrolling groups of the US and British forces have left the border lines.

Arab media outlets said on Tuesday that the Russian armored units entered regions along the Syria-Jordan border to fortify the Syrian Army's border posts and positions and seal the borderline.”  (FARS News Agency)

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Judging by this FARS report, the R+6 is calling our bluff along the Syrian-Jordanian border. We came to the gunfight with Switchblades and leaflets. They came with well equipped, well trained and well supported forces like the 31st GAAB and the 800th Tank Battalion. I've seen reports that Russian jets have chased US jets out of the area on at least two occasions. The CJTFOIR has confirmed one of these incidents. There still may be surprises, but I think it is more likely it will end relatively quietly with the new unicorn army squatting on the Jordanian side of the border.

Just an educated guess on my part, but I imagine the 31st GAAB will pay a major role in securing the Syrian border from Suweida to Tanf and on to Bukamel. They will leave the lifting of the siege of Deir Ezzor to the SAA while they secure this southern flank. Another possibility is that the 31st GAAB will eventually play a part in the southernmost de-escalation zone. Given their training in peace keeping/peace enforcement operations, I believe this is a possibility. The Coalition and the Izzies will have to do some serious soul searching before they assist their jihadi allies in the face of the 31st GAAB.

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-forces-arrive-southern-syria/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/video-syrian-army-shoots-seven-us-manufactured-drones-eastern-sweida/

https://southfront.org/us-backed-militants-counter-attack-failed-syrian-military-deploys-reinforcements-in-southeastern-syria/

https://southfront.org/us-led-coalition-warns-the-syrian-army-not-to-approach-al-tanf-town/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13960307000751

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-will-continue-iraqi-border-offensive-us-warnings-ignored/

Comments

[kgw]

Tout ta faix!!

[The Twisted Genius]

All,

Colonel Lang asked me about the tanks in the 800th battalion. They appear to be the T-72AV models. These are upgraded T-72s with new engines, transmissions. The sighting system is the Viper-32 thermal sight coupled with laser guided AT ammunition fired from the 125mm smoothbore main gun. The Scarab 1 and 2 protection systems have allowed these tanks to withstand attacks from our TOW-2 AT missiles. Not only do the tanks survive such attacks, but they often continue fighting after the TOW attack. They are formidable, modern vehicles. The 800th is a Republican Guards unit and has been referred to as a battalion, regiment and a brigade so I have no idea what size unit it is.

[Ghostship]

Alongside the Bill Kristol Brigade there should be a multitude of Hillary Clinton Brigades for all her numerous liberal and so-called progressive followers who cheered her on through Libya and Syria and are now virulent anti-Russians so should be quite happy to make a heroic last stand at Al Tanf to defend the jihadists.

[kooshy]

TTG, thank you for the usual best

[Bill Herschel]

It occurs to me that the most grotesque insult being bandied about these days, usually by those who profited most from the reality they are denying, is the comparison of Putin to Hitler. Russia defeated Hitler (and Japan for that matter). Millions of Russians lost their lives defeating Hitler. And now Russia is Nazi Germany. The American people thoroughly deserve the buffoon they have elected President. Ignorance is bliss.

[Henshaw]

Interesting, but I'd also like to know what Putin told Macron.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

BH,

Do you think the female buffoon they rejected would have been an improvement?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2014/03/05/hillary-clinton-says-putins-action-are-like-what-hitler-did-back-in-the-30s/

Ishmael Zechariah

[charly]

The smart way to conquer Al Tanf is not with tanks or armies but a Green March. Send 20 buses filled with school kids and nuns, broadcast it on RT Arab and the Americans will fold.

[different clue]

Bill Herschel,

The American persons who believe that Russia is Nazi Germany are the American persons who voted for Clinton. The American persons who voted against Clinton one way or another were doing so in order to vote against the concept that Russia is Nazi Germany. The American persons who elected Trump did so in order to defeat the Russia = Nazi Germany concept.

So Trump may be double-crossing those people who voted for him to oppose a Clintonite foreign policy. In that case, why do the American people thoroughly deserve the buffoon we elected? Are you saying that if we had been smarter, we would have elected the Free Trade Traitor WarPig Clinton?

[PeterHug]

The only salient historical comparison I have to offer is that Trump is for me uncomfortably reminiscent of Wilhelm II after he fired Bismark.

It's not making it easier for me to sleep at night.

[BraveNewWorld]

Isn't that France sending a cue to AQ to do another chemical attack?

[Castellio]

"It doesn't matter if we go to meet death or if death comes to meet us, as long as we are on the right path."

[confusedponderer]

For me that is underlining my interpretation of Putin. He is a tough, thinking man, and pissing at him has a high price. You screw him once, and maybe you get away. The second time you will be made to pay. That's a hard and thinking way to act.

'Bad incidents' or 'bad lucks' are not forgotten. That ought to be clear to Erdogan, or other geniusses of his sort, like the formerly ultra georgian and nowaday ultra ukrainian patriot Shakashvili.

So, some time ago, some nutty jihadiised turk (at least former cop), (with or without MIT support), murdered the Russian ambassador to turkey. Alas. Perhaps that was just bad luck?

And the turks shot down a russian fighter? Alas. Perhaps, also bad luck? With so many competent officers fired for lack of pro AKP applause crap like that may 'happen'. I read that after the firing of turkish officers new turks were sent to Bruxelles. A problem in NATO communication and NATO cooperation came from the fact that many of the super turkish 'new kids' didn't even speak english. Alas.

Well, shit happens. Once or twice. But folks who tend to think will conclude that if odd things and/or bad lucks happen again, it likely was not bad luck but intent. There will be price to pay.

As for what that means, it would help to look at the fate of the virtuous ultra georgian patriot Shaakashvili (who totally spontaneously became an ultra ukrainian patriot when unelected in Georgia).

Shaakashvili had the briliant idea, and US support, when he went after south ossetia (and badly lost that war). In south ossetia the Russians gave him a kick in the butt that he probably still remembers now and handed him his sorry ass by more or less massacring the two infantry divisions or brigades Shakasvili had sent to 'to liberate the neighbour' ('liberate it' to become a part of Georgia? Seriously?) and they destroyed the majority of the georgian artillery sent.

As for prices that are to be paid for stupid ideas like that:

According to Stratfor, Russia "largely destroyed Georgia's war-fighting capability". "Georgia lost its air and naval forces and its air-defence systems". Ouch.

Amusingly, according to Shakashvili, Georgia 'saved 95 percent of its armed forces'. Ah yes. What a success. So that's why Georgia withdrew and everybody but Shaakashvili speaks of a georgian defeat? An embarassing excuse, and it didn't persuade the Georgians: This defeat cost Shaakashvili the re-election, and, oddly, spontaneously he preferred to become a stalwart ukrainian patriot then.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/aug/09/georgia.russia2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

It's interesting that the Russians are harder to screw like, say, Mr. Trump, who, when visiting Saudi Arabia, probably just forgot mentioning 9/11 and where 15 of the murderers came from.

[Confusedponderer]

Use by the SAA? Ah, well, I assume thats the price the syrians demand for the US favourite Sport of embargoes, like the one on toilet paper.

[Confusedponderer]

Charly,
the Manchester bomb isis type jerk didn't bother about murdering minors in dozens.

I wonder: Why would Isis 'in land' be any different in such indifference?

[johnf]

A chemical attack in Syria would also greatly help the struggling Borg-Queen Theresa May in her foundering election campaign with the Sandersesque Corbyn.

He successfuly turned attacks on him as being pro-terrorist after Manchester into an attack on Britain's foreign policy whose wars arm and inspire terrorist attacks in The West. But with a full scale chemical attack in Syria and all the associated media hysteria, with only days to go to the election he might not have time to turn it again. But I think large - and electorally significant - parts of the British electorate have simply given up believing anything they see or read in the British MSM.

[LondonBob]

Trump wouldn't sign off on that and neither would anyone else. Did/does the Pentagon not see that their position in Iraq is precarious what with the Shia dominant there? I was reading Sheuer's comments on his blog on the idiocy of arming the Kurds and the enmity this will generate in the region against the US, McMaster et al just don't seem to think things through.

[aleksandar]

- DAMASCUS, SYRIA (11:00 P.M.) – With the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) advancing rapidly through the Maskanah Plains and reaching the fringes of Raqqa province, Kurdish-led contingents scored a series of important advances in the Tabqa region on Sunday evening, aimed at preventing a government offensive into rural Raqqa.-
Are Kurds stupid enough to try to prevent Tiger Force to attack Deir ez Zor from the north ? Stupid enough to think that they will be able to create a greater Kurdistan, the US Plan "B" in case of plan "A" (create a Sunnistan) failing ?
From Maskanah to Deir ez Zor , it's "open field ".
Do they think they will stop the " Tiger Fantastic Ride" ?
We will see soon.

[TonyL]

I did not vote for Clinton (i.e. I cannot speak for her voters), but I don't think you are right.

Americans who are convinced that Russia is the equivalence of Nazi Germany are the Borgs and their followers, regardless of their political persuasion.

I've noticed that people (many posters on this forum) tend to use a put-down label for others who disagree with their viewpoint. I think all that does is lessening the quality of their arguments.

[alba etie]

TTG
Thank you for keeping us up to date on 'best guesses ' regarding final outcomes in Syria . And as a side bar its seems Mukhtar Donald cut a deal with the Saudi Royals and Blackstone huge private equity group) to privatize all of our upcoming CONUS infrastructure repair & replace .. ( sigh) ...

[alba etie]

Former 11B
and while we are at round up all the Kagan clan and send them too..

[The Beaver]

@ TTG

FWIW:
Look at what the PMU is doing

https://twitter.com/iraqi_day/status/869520292279980034

[FB Ali]

b, TTG,

Doesn't the highway pass mostly through Sunni (tribal) areas? These tribes are not too happy with the Iraqi Shia government.

May that have something to do with letting a US company maintain and guard it?

[Eliot]

CP,

"For me that is underlining my interpretation of Putin. He is a tough, thinking man, and pissing at him has a high price."

But he doesn't let emotion get in the way of making the right decision.

- Eliot

[Babak Makkinejad]

You must be deranged.