Open Thread - 14 May 2017

 

I need  a day off.  It rained here for four days.  My basement started leaking water.  The roof leaks in a place I just had repaired.  The house was built in 1913.  I suppose that if you insist on buying old houses (we do) you have to expect this kind of thing.   The sun will shine for the next week.  The workmen will come back when things dry out.  pl

Comments

[turcopolier]

All

i have an old deer gun in .270 Win. It is cheap version of a much more expensive Remington. It has a junk scope on it. Until my eyes gave out I could hit small targets at 300 yds after a couple of ranging shots. I seldom ever "doped" a scope" Actually I prefer iron sights. Farrell says that means I can actually shoot straight. I you remember Basilisk's short story "Targets" that is the rifle I was shooting that day. pl

[sid_finster]

Because congresscreeps still need Israeli/aicap/whatever money.

Good way to make any remaining support in Congress go away.

[The Twisted Genius]

Tyler,

If your house's construction allows, I suggest you spend some time in the attic with a good flashlight once the rains hit. I do that now and then and it has paid off.

[The Twisted Genius]

b,

That's beyond shortsighted. It was a stupid and dangerous decision on CENTCOM's part. I imagine the Kurds and the embedded SF are cursing a blue streak about this. This could very well cost lives in the future. The reconciliation/amnesty program is one of the smartest things Assad and the R+6 have done.

[The Twisted Genius]

BraveNewWorld,

I agree with Fred here. If anyone could walk away from the Saudis and Israelis, it is Trump. I sincerely hope he tells them that he wants amicable relations, but beyond that, they're on their own.

[John_Frank]

"America’s main military ally in Syria agreed to let Islamic State fighters escape from a key battle earlier this week without conferring with its U.S. partners who targeted the extremists as they tried to flee, Pentagon officials said Friday."

So, the truce was between the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Islamic State. If the IS forces wanted a truce with the US and its other coalition partners they should have asked for one. Since the United States and its other coalition partners were not a party to the truce, the Defense Department was free to act as they deemed fit. Besides, even if the US and its other coalition partners had agreed to the truce, what about the Russian led coalition forces?

As such, what is the basis to suggest that the local forces aligned with the United States or Russia will somehow pay for the decision by the IS forces not to seek a truce with the US and its other coalition partners in this instance? IMHO None.

[John Minnerath]

My Dad was doing stuff like that when he was 85, I don't believe I'll be able to follow in his footsteps. He was one tough old Montana cowboy.
My chimney is going to need a good brushing this summer, there's a big stout 16 year old up river from me, I think I'll have him do it this year.

[John_Frank]

How do we know that the special forces working with the Syrian Democratic Forces opposed the decision by CENTCOM?

The agreement between the SDF and IS forces was neither an amnesty, nor a reconciliation, but simply a truce, allowing the remaining IS forces to withdraw.

The only party which has the authority to grant amnesty, or enter into a reconciliation is the Syrian Arab Republic.

The US and its other coalition partners, nor the Russian led coalition were not a party to this truce.

So, even if the US had agreed to the truce, that would not have stopped the Russian or Syrian Air Forces from carrying out attacks.

[Fred]

sid,

Remind me how well Trump's legislative agenda is going? I don't think getting a shiv in the back from Netanyahu is going to make Trump's dealings with Congress any worse. On the other hand it will give him a great excuse to say "to hell with you settle this yourself" to Bibi.

[Fred]

Any suggestions for getting past writer's block?

[Account Deleted]

For any economists/mathematicians out there: Came across the following from NN Taleb* who was actually quoted a couple of posts back.

Next time a liberal economist tells you that resisting globalization is contrary to economic theory & therefore illogical, you may want to quote Dr. Taleb to them. The extract, which seems highly pertinent to the current state of affairs, is actually from a book he just reviewed - 2nd link. Disclaimer: I've not read it, but I might now.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/863388254082666496
https://t.co/wJFrmIfQju

*For those that don't know; author of The Black Swan (2007) the origin of the label 'black swan event' (events that are unpredictable, but nevertheless possible) often used to describe the 2008 financial crisis. Taleb's influential work also came to discredit conventional financial risk management theory - which previously held that such events were near impossible.

[elaine]

b & TTG, Recently I saw a story about ISIS surrenders on tv (maybe on BBC, not sure} & the number of surrenders was too large to hold them; amoung their ranks were families
with woman & children...they were about to be released. I doubt the US military
unloaded on this group. Apparently surrender en masse is a new tactic. Many in the story I watched were western in origin & whining regrets into the camera about leaving France & other western European countries.

Being allowed to leave with Yezidi female slaves is highly disconcerting.

Sweden is repatriating her ISIS fighters, giving them housing, stipends...treating
them like they're homegrown juvenile gang members to be rehabbed.

I completely understand your concerns about having one faction freeing them & another faction mowing them down, however allowing them to drift into Turkey &
up into Europe does not bode well in the long haul. Can't some of them be held
to trade for Yezidi slaves or other ISIS captives? Are any of these vipers ever
going to be prosecuted? Recently I read Justine Trudeau announced Canada is
not @ war with ISIS. Can that possibly be true? Is he welcoming them into Canada?

[Chris Chuba]

Wanna Cry Virus
I'm amused by the utter lack of remorse at the NSA sourced Malware that has wreaked international havoc. Being masters of the universe, we don't even have to say 'oops' anymore. It's as if we are saying, 'It was meant to fight terrorism, we'll get it right next time, just be glad we are doing this instead of the bad guys'. I was wondering how we would react if the Russian or Iranian govts were in our position. I bet we'd be calling for sanctions, at the very least Haley would be doing a Chicken Dance at the U.N.

The Assad/Russian theory at Khan Shaykhun
While there are many holes in the White House narrative that a Syrian jet delivered Sarin to Khan Shaykhun, I found it interesting that the Borg and their allies have only found one in the Russian/Syrian claim that a conventional bomb released poisonous gas from a rebel warehouse. They jump on the fact that Assad said that the Syrian Jet made the attack at 12:30 while social media started reporting victims as early as 6:30am.

Here are some things I found.
1. Al Masdar News reported the Syrian attack at 12:30pm
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-strikes-jihadist-gas-depot-southern-idlib-report/
Since reporting the attack is not instantaneous with the attack, the attack was obviously earlier than 12:30pm.

2. The video of the warehouse bombed by the Syrian Jet with conventional bombs, analyzed by Postol was posted on Twitter at 9:21 am and was sourced by the Jihadis themselves from youtube. If it gives a different time, it's because twitter presents the time in your time zone. You have to adjust it to reflect Syria's local time.
https://twitter.com/Agencynewshaq/status/849129791294930944https://twitter.com/Agencynewshaq/status/849129791294930944">https://twitter.com/Agencynewshaq/status/849129791294930944">https://twitter.com/Agencynewshaq/status/849129791294930944https://twitter.com/Agencynewshaq/status/849129791294930944
It's looks to be sourced from the Jihadist media blitz, here's the youtube link https://youtu.be/MYOMEDK_uVs
(charming fellows posting on youtube)

Since I do not have any technical background on weaponry, I do not want to be another Bellingcat fool but I don't see why the Jihadists would post this to prove it was a chemical attack. I thought the whole point of chemical WMD's was to aerosolize Sarin, not to make a big boom. When I read Postol, he mentioned that the Ghouta attack just left a big liquid pool that then vaporized. These are big billowing mushroom clouds. The WH report even made a big deal about the bomb crater being too small for conventional explosives.

My point is that Assad just made a mistake. He didn't fly the mission. This does not disprove the Russian/Syrian theory.

[BabelFish]

I shoot .270 at 130g. but that is for whitetails. Max shot distance would be 100 yards and more likely near 40-50.

[Keith Harbaugh]

Need for an SST post on Afghanistan:
Might I suggest Colonel Lang author a top-level post
on the current push for an expansion of the American war effort in Afghanistan?
That's a really important decision,
and I am sure that the various contributors to SST
have some valuable things to say about it.
Why not give them the chance,
and a post on which to place their thoughts?

BTW, here is a fairly detailed history of the Brit./USSR campaigns in Afghanistan:
“President Trump: Afghanistan is your easiest task — GET OUT”
by Michael Scheuer, 2017-02-17
http://non-intervention.com/2598/president-trump-afghanistan-is-your-easiest-task-get-out/

And here is a past SST post on the subject:
"... Now it might take decades."
by Patrick Lang et al., 2016-01-28
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2016/01/httpswwwwashingtonpostcomnewscheckpointwp20160126the-u-s-was-supposed-to-leave-afghanistan-by-2017-now-it-might-t.html

[Tidewater]

Tidewater to Turcopolier and All,

I think that there has been a revolutionary breakthrough in roofing coatings. I have recommended this before here (to TTG), and I am comfortable in doing it again. It is called GACO. It was recommended to me by a roofing contractor down at the island. I suspect I may be rolling some of this on in the near future. Yes, you can roll this stuff on if you have a flat roof. I don't, but if you have degraded asphalt shingle roof, then you can also use something like GACO Flex SF2000 seam seal. My guess is that you might want GacoRoofUltra. This runs about a hundred dollars a gallon. The product description is of a 100 per cent silicone roof coating which is "a proven solution to renewing a weathered roof...[it] "creates a monolithic, weather-tight seal protecting pre-existing roofs against damaging leaks, permanent ponding water and degradation caused by severe UV rays and temperature extremes." Yes, a flat roof covered with GACO could have standing water!

I have a whimsical idea to build a little cardboard toy boat and paint it with GACO and set it afloat to see how it does. In theory you could build a little dingy out of cardboard that would last a while, I would hope, if coated with GACO. We used to have a Captain John Wright, Deltaville built, rowboat, which I remember noting we were letting go when the Boston Whaler took everything over. Sad. I actually think that GACO inside a leaking wooden rowboat will probably fix all problems. Probably on any material. I brushed some on my roof at the edges, and later found a grouping of little rounded beads of silicone on the deck below, that had splashed off and bonded. I had to use a putty knife to get it off. It bonds nicely. It is tough. Mexican roofers know about it, or ought to. I would make inquiries of any roofing contractor about GACO, and if they didn't know about it I would want to know why. They might not like the expense. It comes in several colors including a dark green.

[turcopolier]

Keith Harbaugh

OK I will write something tomorrow maybe. I tried in 2009 to stop the surge and failed miserably. Obama's ego was entrapped by the WP cabal that went after him and HC, whom I thought a friend, was really one of the worst hawks,but I will try again. pl

[turcopolier]

Babelfish

I suppose you are shooting offhand (standing) I was talking about bench shooting. What kind of gun? As you know I have not hunted in forty years. I can't stand the thought of killing something, anything unnecessarily. I was telling your cousin, my wife, today that for some reason I thought of my old friend, General Jack Galvin, now long dead. He was in the town of Song Be in Phuoc Long Province the year after I was there. He was province senior advisor or some such thing as a LTC. At dinner in NY City he told me how quiet it was in Phuoc Long the year after I was there. We both knew why. In my year there we wiped out three infantry battalions of VC. 1200 enemy soldiers maybe? Mostly NVA fillers by then. Foemen worthy of our steel. They outnumbered us badly and kept attacking and attacking.I have no taste for unnecessary killing. Necessary killing is bad enough. http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2012/05/targets.html#more pl

[Chris Chuba]

(Coma alert: if you don't care about driveway surfacing don't read)

Do you have a recommendation for driveway cracks that are too large for standard driveway sealer? BTW I always use top of the line driveway sealer, the one with the maximum life span that I can find. These are 1/4" - 1/2" cracks that are quite long. I haven't tried asphalt yet, I thought that would be overkill and a lot of work. I was hoping that there was some miracle rubber fill material or something. Could I cheat and use one of the roofing products you mentioned and then apply driveway sealer over the whole thing?

[The Twisted Genius]

Chris Chuba,

There are two solutions available in any of the big box stores. One comes in a pail and looks like tar infused sand. You apply it with a trowel to large cracks, holes and low spots. The other is a thickened version of the standard driveway topper that comes in a half gallon squeeze bottle. It's good for cracks and may take two applications. Between the two, you can fix damned near any condition driveway. Both these products should be sold next to the standard five gallon sealer containers. I've used both products with great success.

[different clue]

John_Frank,

If ISIS is not/ are not sophisticated enough to make or understand these fine distinctions between who did or did not grant a truce . . . or who was or was not asked; then ISIS will simply think they agreed to surrender a position and walk away without fighting and after cleaning up the area and then got hunted down and killed anyway. If they see it that way, then they won't accept any more local surrender-and-leave offers and will instead fight to the death and leave behind as many booby traps and homemade-bombs as they can.

[EasyARB]

I am late to this (very late), but I had a question for Tyler. During the election, Tyler (in both posts and comments) laid out his beliefs/the nature of the Alt-Right ideology. One of the things I didn't understand was the reference to a closer connection with Eastern European ideas/peoples. What does that mean exactly? How do they differ from Central or Western Europeans excepting for geography? Any writings to look at are appreciated.

Being a child of the late cold war, I had a surprising shock seeing that idea put forward. Then again, the late cold war was probably the last time I'd given them thought for some 3 decades. Thanks

[BraveNewWorld]

The reasons Trump will be weakened is that he has his people going around talking a lot of smack to the various players in the Middle East including Israel. When Netanyahu laughs in his face every one will understand just how impotent Trump is on the international stage. Trump could threaten this or that but any real threat he could make would require congress and they won't do any thing to back Trump up against Israel. So Trump will have made a bunch of threats and nothing will have come from it. Does that make his stronger or weaker?

As for Trump putting a wedge between US and Israeli Jews that happened long before Trump ever dreamed of politics. Israeli Jews don't view American Jews as real Jews. They are just disposable Goyum like the rest of us. When congress members pledge elegance to Israel they aren't doing it for American Jews they are doing it in spite of American Jews.

[BraveNewWorld]

From a story on the CBC about Canada's failure to properly designate terrorist groups in Syria. The most interesting part of this story is the CBC finally coming around to the idea there might be terrorists in Syria.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/terror-list-omission-1.4114621

[asx]

Col. et al,

Have you all chewed on the OBOR launch by the Chinese and its implications for our force structure? Does it accelerate the Asian pivot? It is not hard to envision a maritime situation where China fields twice the number of CBGs as us in couple of decades.

Or Is the Borg quietly giving up on manifest destiny in exchange for some beef sales, copyrights for Ivankas handbags and more consulting fees for Kissinger?

Dysfunction in D.C could not have come at a more inopportune moment.

http://stories.cnas.org/the-return-of-marco-polos-world-and-the-u-s-military-response