Incident at Al-Tanf - TTG

Yesterday a CJTFOIR spokesperson issued the following statement concerning an attack on Syrian forces thirty kilometers northwest of the Syrian-Iraqi border crossing of Al-Tanf.

“The coalition struck pro-regime forces that were advancing well inside an established de-confliction zone northwest of Al-Tanf, Syria, May 18, and that posed a threat to U.S. and partner forces at Al-Tanf.  This action was taken after apparent Russian attempts to dissuade Syrian pro-regime movement south towards Al-Tanf were unsuccessful, a coalition aircraft show of force, and the firing of warning shots.  Coalition forces have been operating in the At Tanf area for many months training and advising vetted partner forces engaged in the fight against ISIS.  The agreed upon de-confliction zone agreement remains in effect.”

Al Masdar News was told the following by the Syrian military headquarters in Damascus:

- The U.S. Coalition warplane entered Syrian airspace from the Jordanian border

- A convoy of five T-62 tanks were hit by the U.S. Coalition

- Two tanks were destroyed

- A Shilka was damaged

- Six military personnel were killed and another three were wounded

- Convoy consisted of soldiers from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), National Defense Forces (NDF), Hezbollah, and Imam Al-‘Ali Battalions   

First, let’s establish the importance of Al-Tanf. It lies along the Baghdad-Damascus highway on the Syrian-Iraqi border. Its importance to Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon (the dreaded Shia Crescent) should be obvious. That is also why it is so important to the Coalition, the Saudis, Qataris and the Israelis. The Coalition is using the Al-Tanf area as a base for their new unicorn army whose real purpose is, not to fight IS, but to ensure Syria does not regain her territorial integrity. US and British special operations forces are training and equipping rebel units there including the Maghaweir Al-Thawra group. This outfit recently advanced east of Al-Tanf towards the Euphrates. If the SAA took Al-Tanf, these rebels would be cut off from their Coalition support.

The Coalition has unilaterally declared a thirty kilometer or so exclusionary zone around Al-Tanf. Even so, our new unicorns at Al-Tanf have been attacked by IS jihadis at least twice. They have also been attacked by Russian and Syrian aircraft on two occasions. Yesterday, the Coalition decided to enforce their exclusion zone. Syrian forces were denied access to Syrian territory by lethal US force.

Yesterday’s attack on the Syrian column was done with the full knowledge and direction of the CJCS and President. We deliberately risked killing Russian advisors who accompanied this SAA column. This attack exposes this administration’s true objectives in the region. Apologists cannot write this off as some mistake attributed to the fog of war or some clever three dimensional chess gambit. It is a craven embrace of the “Assad must go” policy and everything it stands for.

How will the R+6 respond? The offensive to open the Damascus-Baghdad highway will continue. The assault from the west with the SAA’s 5th and 7th armored divisions has already made good progress in the Al-Sweida Governate against the US-backed Jaysh Assoud Al-Sharqiya. Further north, the SAA’s 5th Legion along with forces from Hezbollah, NDF and the Imam Ali Battalions are poised to resume their offensive towards Al-Tanf. These forces will now, undoubtedly, be accompanied by Russian and Syrian air defense and air support. The SAA column struck by coalition aircraft today was probably just a reconnaissance in force. What’s coming? Here’s a possibility. “And I looked, and behold a pale horse, and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.” 

TTG

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/18/world/us-syria-airstrikes/

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-syria-anger-us-airstrike-syrian-troops-bashar-assad-al-tanf/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/pictures-syrian-army-reinforcements-pour-syrian-desert-despite-us-airstrikes/

Comments

[Babak Makkinejad]

"Remember the Martyred Omar Mukhtar!"

[Account Deleted]

It is my suspicion that the US knows Al-Tanf is untenable, but is unwilling to leave - yet. My reading of the attack FWIW is that it was not a mistake, but may simply have been a tactical move to fend off the advancing forces *until such time as the US can conduct an orderly withdrawal*. Either that or it was a simple PR exercise ahead to Trump's first "big trip" to the lands of the jihadis' sponsors.

Despite it's title, this CNN article (final para.) quotes the head of Maghawir al-Thawrah as saying he was told they were to be relocated from Al-Tanf (albeit before the strike): http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/18/world/us-syria-airstrikes/index.html. It is surely relevant that the US was/is considering this option.

If US strategy is indeed to prevent Syria regaining territorial integrity, I am struggling to see how holding an isolated desert outpost nominally inside Syria is vital to that aim. Also, it has been argued (by b; Elijah J. Magnier) that the Damascus-Baghdad road itself is not in fact strategically vital. In any case, the southern FSA unicorns seem to be up against an inexorable advance by R+6 forces (Magnier quotes 20,000 Hezbollah & 10,000 SAA re-tasked to the various pushes east - https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/). Bombing to keep them at bay again is an option, but I cannot see Mattis' credibility surviving long if he is forced to deny further involvement in Syria every time such strikes are conducted.

Re Deir Ezzor, can anyone tell me if it is feasible that US-backed forces can reach it before R+6 do? There has been talk of invasion from Iraq - given recent attacks on Al Bukamal. But the route to Deir Ezzor up the Euphrates is Daesh heartland and would mean advancing through many population centers. Is it really possible this line of approach could be faster that R+6's route through largely empty desert from Palmyra?

In summary, I see the strike as, at worst, the hangover from a strategy that the US military must now consider is near impossible - that is to use it's proxies to retain a portion of SE Syria for future adventurism. If I am wrong, we are clearly in big trouble.

*****

In related news; Daesh still seem to be able to operate within 30km of Al-Tanf -without interdiction by Coalition airpower:

http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2017/20-may-isis-blew-up-the-radio-towers-at-the-isf-base-near

[Tunde]

Or he never really meant or understood what he said in the first place, but hey, he got the votes ?

[different clue]

JJackson,

And if they are all wearing sneakers, then it is oh-so-exquisitely-truthful to say that there are no boots on the ground.

[different clue]

ancient archer,

What an interesting extension of my metaphor. Does Trump have an "inner Trump", however vestigial, which might emerge and take over the Trump Suit from within? Is there still a "real Donald Trump" which could emerge from whatever brain-decay dementia-fog it is often hiding in? Who would this "real Trump" be? What would this "real Trump" do?

Is the dementia itself part of a Vincent " the Chin" Gigante
act? Is there a cold calculating cynical Trump waiting to emerge and have the last laugh upon them all? Stay tuned . . .

[Tunde]

I've watched James Baker and Condi Rice say on CNN that Tillerson, Mattis and McMaster are people with proven track records and reputations. Sounded to me like Borgist talk for we know them and are comfortable things won't get out of hand. Like a change of direction.
Not sure what you mean by Trump's "executive experience" outside of a boardroom. PL has written of how different that is to administrative executive experience. I also wouldn't call Obama an ignoramus. Narcissistic and hubristic, yep. And that's why his ineptitude was more damning imho.

[Gene O.]

He has always been a grandstander, a bullsh!tter, and a con-man. We knew that going in. But better my con-man than their con-man. As long as he upholds the 2nd, I will be OK with all his shady deals with the Turks, or Qataris, or whoever.

[Tyler P. Harwell]

There are ways to pick up a snake. This might not be the best.

[Imagine]

Vapor trails indeed.