IMO the "de-escalation zones" are a clever trick. Thank God.

05 May 2017

IMO the "de-escalation zones" are a clever trick. Thank God.

IMO Putin and Lavrov are even more clever than I had thought. The Astana process proposal for "de-escalation zones" in Syria has something for everyone:

1. The SAG will receive yet more advice and assistance from Russia. As evidence of this R+6 forces are assembling in the eastern Homs Province area for a massive drive to liberate Deir al-Zor. The Tiger Forces and 5th Corps of the SAA seem to be poised to spearhead this drive. This effort, evidently to be conducted with full Russian air and advisory support is not indicative of Russia having "thrown in the towel" and washed its hands of the fate of the present Syrian government.

2. At the same time a glance at the placement of the proposed "de-escalation zones" shows that these are all jihadi dominated areas under the protection and support of foreign sponsors; Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey, the smaller Gulfies and probably still the US. The supposed creation of these jihadi Bantustans will please the sponsors but it should not.

3. Why? The very AQ descended or connected jihadi military forces in these areas are excluded from the terms and protection of "the deal." This means that after the Deir al-Zor operation is ended the R+6 will be free to turn their attention to destroying terrorist jihadi forces in these enclaves.

4. IMO Putin wants to improve relations with the US. Trump will probably believe that this ploy is a genuine expression of good will rather than a clever maneuver. Look to see a follow on set of proposals for something like a UN supervised referendum in the Crimea on annexation and a proposal for a US/Russian mixed military commission to determine the actual state of affairs in the Donbas and eastern Ukraine generally. pl

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-may-5-2017-de-escalation-zones-and-advance-on-deir-ezzor/

Posted at 11:04 AM in Borg Wars, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Middle East, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Syria | Permalink

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Colonel,

In case you missed it, Al Monitor had an excellent analysis & description of possible end game for Idlib (2nd half of article).

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/05/us-troops-turkey-syria-border.html

If indeed a grand bargain has been done, is it plausible that US could use Russian air defenses as an excuse to deny assistance to Afrin Kurds, let Tal Rifaat fall & thus not be seen to overtly sell out SDF? In exchange for Kurds being pushed back, Turkey provides intelligence/support against HTS in Idlib.

Posted by: Account Deleted | 08 May 2017 at 09:49 AM

It doesn't help McMaster when the news says that he wants 150,000 ground troops in Syria.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-08/washington-loves-general-mcmaster-but-trump-doesn-t

Posted by: Les | 08 May 2017 at 02:05 PM

The State Department announced this morning that Foreign Minister Lavarov is coming to Washington, D.C. to meet with Secretary Tillerson on May 10.

Secretary Tillerson To Meet With Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov
https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/05/270698.htm

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Washington D.C. on Wednesday, May 10, to discuss Ukraine, Syria, and bilateral issues. On Ukraine, the sides will discuss the need to stop the violence in eastern Ukraine and resolve the conflict through the full implementation of the Minsk agreements.
On Syria, the Secretary intends to discuss efforts to de-escalate violence, provide humanitarian assistance to the Syrian people, and set the stage for a political settlement of the conflict.

According to press reports, FM Lavrov will be in the US from May 9 - 11.

Also, follows is the transcript of the press avail that Secretary Mattis had early this morning en route to Copenhagen:

Media Availability with Secretary Mattis en route to Copenhagen, Denmark
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1176063/media-availability-with-secretary-mattis-en-route-to-copenhagen-denmark/

Posted by: John_Frank | 08 May 2017 at 05:18 PM