I have a bet with an old friend and mentor. Both of us believe that Donald Trump will not serve his full four year term. We differ, however, on how long he will survive. My friend thinks he will have been impeached by he House by Labor Day. While I don't dismiss that as an possibility, I'm betting he will get to 2018 but become so toxic by then that Republicans will abandon him in droves. The winner of this bet buys the other dinner at s fine restaurant in Washington, DC.
The agitprop designed to destroy Trump is alive and well and more Republicans appear to be signing on with anti-Trump memes pushed by the Democrats. But this is not a one-sided affair in terms of the effort to take Trump down. Donald Trump himself is busy shooting his own foot off with his uncontrollable mouth.
I think a good number of voters chose Trump over Hillary in the hopes that he was actually a businessman who had the organizational skill and vision to get things done. Those voters are starting to turn on Trump. Instead of good organization the nation is being treated to a petulant display of boorish immaturity. What manager in their right mind fires the head of the FBI in such a cavalier, reckless fashion. Please understand--I believe that Comey needed to go. He needed to be fired. But there is a right way and a wrong way.
What did Trump do? He chose the wrong way and further damaged his image.
Instead of calling Comey in for a meeting and giving him a chance to resign, Trump opted to blindside him. In doing so Trump gave the Democrats ammunition for attacking him as someone who was trying to interfere with an on-going investigation. Trump compounded the chaos by issuing a veiled threat against Comey by raising the specter that Comey's previous conversations with the President had been recorded. That has piqued the interest of Congress and we now have a bipartisan request for such tapes (if they exist).
I personally am sick and tired of listening to the whining of people like Kelly Anne Conway, who was on Howard Kurtz's show today (Sunday) kvetching about the media's failure to focus on the trade deal with China or health care. Sorry Kelly Anne, but the media did not fire Comey and the media did not produce competing explanations about why Trump did what he did.
There is simply no excuse for this kind of impromptu decision making. Unfortunately, Trump has made a habit of this during the campaign. It did not prove fatal then. That is not likely to be the case going forward. Trump will not run for a second term. Trump will not finish his first term. The only question is when will he be forced out or call it quits. The only winners from this sad affair will be my friend and me--but we will share a great meal together. PT
please believe I've no intention of offending American citizens when I say that from our side of the Atlantic we think Chump is fantastic!
the more buffoonery he partakes in the more people over here realise that there is no point looking to Washington for direction and begrudgingly concede they might actually have to think for themselves,
I hope Chump lasts long enough for European governments to form their own foreign policy stances instead of following Washington blindly into the next NATO disaster,
with Obama he had the grace and eloquence to make even suggesting eating babies sound reasonable to us,
Chump is pretty much incomprehensible for the British, I dare say people who speak English as a second language find him bewildering,
although both our nations theoretically are English speaking there are times when one party just doesn't quite understand wtf the other is talking about,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsdQYWs3nM4
imagine Terence Stamp as Chump and the detective as his British audience
Posted by: Matt | 15 May 2017 at 03:10 AM
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_Papers
Check out the who who
Posted by: Anonymous | 15 May 2017 at 03:55 AM
I am not in any way at all knowledgeable about computer hacking or cyber security but I do subscribe to Bruce Schneier's email newsletter on such matters, and Bruce IS an expert.
This is his take on whom is hacking whom:
https://www.lawfareblog.com/who-publishing-nsa-and-cia-secrets-and-why
Posted by: johnf | 15 May 2017 at 05:08 AM
'Petulant display of boorish immaturity'. That his enemies dwell on such thoughts, for want of better ones perhaps, is one of Mr Trump's strengths.
Posted by: Dmcna | 15 May 2017 at 05:47 AM
Agree. This has been my take going back to the slight-of-hand/Syrian one-off cruise missile move, as well. Lavrov yukking it up with president The Donald in Russian-only photo shoot was f-you amplification of the message in the Comey firing. Trump has decided to fight, and he fights funny-like...
Posted by: scott douglas | 15 May 2017 at 06:34 AM
t's quite apparent that DJT actually believed that the deputy AG's, legitimately scathing review of Comey's handling of the HRC email would be received as proffered. But it would be so unlike DJT that it failed within hours. Really, no one believed it.
Not familiar with the larger context you allude to here. As a consequence the second sentence somehow stands crossways in my mind, refusing to allow me to integrate it neatly into context.
Would you please rephrase?
Ok, I see the UK's Telegraph connected matters. Still, what's on your mind?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/09/donald-trump-fires-fbi-director-james-comey1/
More vaguely
Posted by: LeaNder | 15 May 2017 at 06:58 AM
I'm with John Frank and EEngineer,
me too. Yes, this seems to be my favored nitwit dot connection too. No doubt from a superficial perception. And surely I am not at all a fan of Trump. ;)
- Trump welcomed Lavrov (and Kislyak) to the Oval Office at more or less the same time as he was firing Comey. Hard to see this as an accident.
Posted by: LeaNder | 15 May 2017 at 07:11 AM
Impeachment requires that Trump and the Republican party split. He won't go quietly, and he will take most of their voters with him. That would be the end of the Republican party and the start of something new.
Unless he actually takes himself out of the picture by dying, that is what impeachment means.
Posted by: Fredw | 15 May 2017 at 07:12 AM
We don't really know what the "Comey Tape" is all about, perhaps it's not about the Trump-Comey dinner conversation, anyway the Dems want it made public. Trump lost some of his base over the Syria missile strike but that turned out to be kinda of a dud and with the Comey firng, his base is back, not sure if it really left him in the first place. The Syria missile strike also, once again, revealed the major hypocrisy that is our MSM. The Russians and the Chinese like Trump and are playing nice with him, The EU just got a temporary reprieve until next year at best, EU money will flood into the US equities markets, the stock market will soar, everyone but the SJW crybabies, trannies, and Diversity Inc., will be happy, what's not to like. Impeachment of Trump - big big pushback from the American people in my estimation. They are starting to get back the America they like and felt they had lost.
Posted by: BillWade | 15 May 2017 at 07:44 AM
Anonymous
Useful document. I learned in the business world that just about everyone wants to hide money. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 15 May 2017 at 08:16 AM
Why do people think a businessman could run government? Business and government are two different kinds of things. Business makes a profit, government takes care of needs that don't make profit. "Politician" is a bad word, but it can be a noble pursuit, as Cicero showed.
Posted by: Lee A. Arnold | 15 May 2017 at 08:20 AM
It is becoming increasingly likely that Trump may be dragged down by the Russian angle after all. As the investigation expands its not collusion with the Russian government but rather his participation in a money-laundering operation with the Russo-jewish mafia which may prove to be his Achilles heel. A criminal investigation of Trump‘s business dealings is not something he is likely to survive.
Dutch Public Broadcasting has recently broadcast a two part series investigating the supposedly non-existent business connections between Trump and Russia.
THE DUBIOUS FRIENDS OF DONALD TRUMP: THE RUSSIANS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKLWloj2ohM (part 1)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LxtQ0CMzQQ (part 2)
More detail and background is provided in this informative article by James S. Henry, a reputable investigative journalist:
The Curious World of Donald Trump’s Private Russian Connections
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/12/19/the-curious-world-of-donald-trumps-private-russian-connections/
Posted by: pantaraxia | 15 May 2017 at 08:25 AM
John_Frank,
I agree. Comey was fired exactly as many business people are fired. Working in the Fortune 500 world, I have seen big shot exec.s on top one day and ignominiously escorted out of the building by security the next. True, some failing exec.s are provided the opportunity to resign in order to "pursue other opportunities....and...we wish him/her the best of luck", yet others get Comied. No explanation forthcoming. Tight lips on those who would know the backstory. The only thing clear in those cases is that the terminated party incurred the wrath of someone above, perhaps the CEO himself, and that there are severe consequences if a certain line of incompetence or ethical lapse is crossed.
And, let us not forget that part of Trump's popularity in show biz was his iconic "You're fired!" . Apparently there are a lot of folks out there that really like that approach. Enough to make Trump a star.
Maybe this is a rare thing in the realm of government work. Maybe it shouldn't be.
I predict Trump will stay in office as long as he wants to, which, at this point, will be a full term at least. As you say, there is no proof of any crime having been committed by him and, absent that, the Borg cannot remove him. There would be hell to pay.
For one thing, the Republican party would be destroyed. Oddly, I think it would also fracture the Democrats. The Clintonites would be happy, but the Bernie Bro.s - or at least a lot of them - would see the impeachment as more evidence of serious corruption in both traditional parties. These guys are at least as paranoid as right wing conspiracy theorists. In fact, they're the same; just their solution is Che Guevera and communism as opposed to living in the woods. So there'd be a rift along Clintonite/Bernie Bro allegiances. Then there's all the civil unrest that I'm sure would follow.
The DC establishment has to see this.
I know it is said they didn't see Clinton losing - but I have a different take on even that. My theory is they knew it would be close and that a Clinton loss had a high probability, but they wanted to make it look rosy to keep the donor money coming in. It was a con game. Get some ginned up polls. Get the media to play along. Collect as much money as possible before the election revealed the con. Then, when faced with angry donors post-election, blame the loss on Russia. Promise to undo the mess by foiling Trump's presidency.
I think the establishment knows they can't really do what they want to.
Posted by: Eric Newhill | 15 May 2017 at 08:50 AM
"even more antagonistic"? You're living in a propaganda bubble dream world. Russia is frantically defending itself against a U.S. onslaught without historic precedent. Napoleon ain't in it.
Posted by: Bill Herschel | 15 May 2017 at 09:20 AM
Great link, I didn't know Terence Stamp. It doesn't quite make sense to ponder if he was a detective in this context, well yes, considering his prison experiences? But I enjoyed hearing geezer once again. ;)
Posted by: LeaNder | 15 May 2017 at 09:25 AM
With respect, from a business perspective, the way that Mr. Comey was fired is exactly how one would handle the situation in the circumstances.
Not always or more generally, from my no doubt rather limited perspective. ... on some layers, yes, on others not so much.
Posted by: LeaNder | 15 May 2017 at 09:39 AM
Ok, if one adds a dot m dot, one gets a different outlay.
Now I wish I could trace the larger context, or the time it was frequently happening, wondering why this happened. Or maybe the larger context, that surfaces just now. Were there already many tablets around then? Still don't have one. ;)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tablet_computer#Fictional_and_prototype_tablets
Posted by: LeaNder | 15 May 2017 at 09:51 AM
Ingolf, I agree with all your points. Just because the headlines in the media are hysterical doesn't mean all that much. In general, the MSM has been wrong so often about Trump that it's not worth paying much attention to.
Trump has been getting a lot of advice from Kissinger recently, and he was in Trump's office just before Lavrov arrived. I posted some links about that here http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2017/05/trump-changes-gear-strategic-syria-policy-now-lies-with-tillerson-and-lavrov-by-alastair-crooke-12-m.html
Posted by: Valissa | 15 May 2017 at 09:55 AM
I've yet to see a good leader with no management skills.
Granted, a good manager is not necessarily a leader
Posted by: TV | 15 May 2017 at 09:58 AM
I confess that I didn't know what a Gates notice is, but The Hill explains it thus:
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/332418-rand-paul-asks-intelligence-committee-for-surveillance-details
"[Paul] added that he also wants a 'clear answer on whether your committee received a Gates notice related to me or to members of my staff,' referring to the notification Congress receives if a lawmaker's name is revealed in an intelligence report."
If that's the case, it seems unlikely politically targeted spying would be written up in an actual intelligence report (IIR, FIR, etc.). OTOH, it's not at all improbable that the name of a Congressbeing would show up in the conversations of, for example, Ambassador Kislyak. Those, we trust, are routinely monitored and interesting tidbits written up in IRs.
Posted by: Allen Thomson | 15 May 2017 at 10:01 AM
The "pussy grabber" incident was fairly telling. What happened? After being condemned by Republican electeds, they went home and then proceeded to kiss Trump's ring. "Pussy grab" should have ended his chances against anyone.
The Democratic problem is two fold. One, elite Democratic media outlets are dominated by Hillary supporters. During the primary, people who voted for Hillary were found to receive primarily from cable news. Sanders listed non-cable news platforms. Despite the unity of elite Democratic linked media outlets, a 73 year old Senator from Vermont challenged the Queen who significantly outperformed the Sanders in areas with limited internet access. One should not underestimate dissatisfaction within the potential Democratic coalition.
The state of Versailles on the Potomac relative to outside Versailles is the issue. Many of our institutions poll at all time lows. Congress is even less popular than the President, and the media polls with Congress. Congressional popularity is not linked to a particularly party given the personalities.
The "OMG Russia" meme has been in the news for so long that its unlikely to move people without "evidence" or acceptable "evidence." Further innuendo, much like the discussions about long form and short form birth certificates, might serve to enrage a person committed to a particular narrative no matter how absurd. It will no longer move people. Given the dishonesty or complete lack of substance in the "OMG Russia" stories to date, the risk is people will only look away from the "OMG Russia" crowd similar to the Birthers as time progresses.
Trump's popularity did drop in recent days during the healthcare vote period.
Posted by: NotTimothyGeithner | 15 May 2017 at 10:03 AM
I'm curious about that too. Although I quite appreciated the PT's other posts, I find this one very biased by personal emotion and probably group affiliation as well. Guessing that PT has long been an anti-Trumper. Also guessing PT lives and/or works in the DC area which appears to have a heavy anti-Trump bias. One cannot do rational analysis about politics when one is emotionally biased for or against someone or something. When what you are watching on TV as well as media headlines keep repeating the same hysterical bullshit, and constantly pulls on emotional strings, even very intelligent people can get sucked into the collective lynch mob mentality. This anti-Trump propaganda campaign is being strongly pushed by the Democrats and many Republican elites/insiders as well.
Versailles on the Potomac is having a collective hissy fit about Trump and his every step. Makes the DC insiders look even lamer than they did before the election. I find that very amusing!
I'd be happy to bet against anyone who thinks Trump will get impeached.
[reminder, I'm a 3rd party voter and did not vote for Trump. ]
Posted by: Valissa | 15 May 2017 at 10:17 AM
pantarazia,
You really want to go there? I don't think so.
First off, tossing out "Jewish" mafia as a term is going to get attacked as "anti-Semitic". We can't even discuss AIPAC and its influence without being shouted down and shamed.
Worse, politicians get money from all kinds of shady sources. Think about the unions and organized crime and the donations they would make. Organized crime is behind a lot of campaigns. If I was Trump, I would be having the FBI put together a nice power point, right now, of Democrat/organized crime connections; easy to do.
No one in DC wants their money sources to become a hot topic. Trump would fight back by doing just that.
And it's not just organized crime. How about exposes on Saudi/ Clinton connections filled with evocative images of people getting their heads cut off and women being stoned to death?
The pot really needs to be careful about calling the kettle black when the kettle has nothing to lose.
Posted by: Eric Newhill | 15 May 2017 at 10:54 AM
I think you may be overloading on scandal and underloading on the possibility that Trump may be identified with significant policy accomplishments. That he and Warren might form a coalition on Glass-Steagall II would be both worthwhile policy and a significant disruptor of the anti-Trump coalition. As someone in another thread wondered, what will Rachel Maddow say to that? Also, if the pressure on Trump forces him to resort to the most efficient anti-ISIS strategy available, i.e. coordinating with the R+6, the fall of Raqaa would help him.
Posted by: hemeantwell | 15 May 2017 at 11:00 AM
The same vested money interest pours in for both sides regardless of who's in power, doesn't it?
Posted by: iowa steve | 15 May 2017 at 11:08 AM