Sic Semper Tyrannis

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, COLONEL LANG - TTG

 

LET'S PARTY!

There comes a time when one may not want to be reminded of this milestone, but it beats the hell out of the alternative. Happy birthday, brother. DOL

TTG

US MEDIA'S FAVORITE JIHADIST by Decameron

 

Most US media ignored, or perhaps spiked, the following story which appeared in the London Times on April 7, 2017 (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kidnap-trial-doctor-treats-gas-victims-5dmnzz5k0). 

No wonder. This Times of London story outed Dr. Shajul Islam, the medical “star” of NBC-TV  and other reports, as an accused jihadi.  Dr. Islam had been on trial, with his brother, for a Syrian jihadi group’s kidnapping and beatings of two British journalists in 2012. The Islam frères were arrested in Britain, but the prosecution was terminated after the key witnesses—the two journalists—couldn’t appear to give evidence. One of the journalists was kidnapped again by jihadis after returning to the region to report on the Syrian war, and the other journalist was later killed in Libya.  With the witnesses “unavailable,” charges against Dr. Islam ended in the UK. 

Where is Dr. Islam now? In Syria, from where he’s been broadly featured on US TV, immediately after the alleged Syrian government chemical attack on Khan Sheikhoun, performing close-up examinations of victims of the chemical attack.  Even now, almost two months later, Dr. Islam provides regular “updates” from jihadi Idlib, via Twitter and YouTube videos, on the so-called Assad government crimes against civilians

In the April 7^th words of the Times of London:

 “A British doctor who treated victims of the deadly nerve gas attack in northern Syria travelled back to the war zone after his trial on charges of kidnapping a British journalist collapsed and he was struck from the medical register.

“Shajul Islam, 31, posted a series of videos on Twitter showing victims being brought to the hospital in Idlib province where he now works. He has given interviews on the attack to global media outlets, including NBC News in the United States.

“Mr Islam went on trial in Britain in 2013 on terrorism charges, accused of belonging to a jihadist group that kidnapped John Cantlie, a British journalist who worked for newspapers including The Sunday Times, and Jeroen Oerlemans, a Dutch journalist. They were taken hostage shortly after crossing into Syria from Turkey and kept handcuffed and blindfolded for nine days.

“Mr Islam was described in court as a “committed jihadist” with significant ties to Britons wanted on terrorism charges. The trial against him, his brother Najul and a third man, Jubayer Chowdhury, collapsed when the prosecution was unable to call either of the kidnapped men.

“Mr Cantlie was unavailable because he had returned to Syria where he was kidnapped again and held by Islamic State. The last known western hostage held by the group, he has been forced to appear in a series of propaganda videos, most recently in Mosul, where an offensive against the group is under way. Mr Oerlemans, who refused to give evidence for fear that it would further endanger Mr Cantlie, was killed by a sniper in Libya last year.”

By the way, the London Times also reported that “In March last year, Mr Islam was struck off the medical register for misconduct after a 16-day secret hearing. Details of his misconduct charges were never revealed.”

For more on the chemical attack agitprop, look at SST’s postings of Dr. Theodore Postol’s scientific smackdown of the White House intelligence findings regarding the Khan Sheikhoun incident. http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2017/04/the-french-intelligence-report-of-april-26-2017-contradicts-the-allegations-in-the-white-house-intel.html

"The New York Times Video Analysis of the Events in Khan Sheikhoun on April 4, 2017: NONE of the Cited Forensic Evidence Supports the Claims." by Dr. Ted Postol - (posted by Publius Tacitus)

Introduction

On April 26/27 2017 the New York Times released a video titled How Syria and Russia Spun a Chemical Strike. This video provides extensive forensic evidence that the New York Times used to develop its conclusions about an alleged nerve agent attack in Khan Sheikhoun on April 4, 2017. In this report, I show that NONE of the forensic evidence in the New York Times video and a follow-on Times news article supports the conclusions reported by the New York Times.

The New York Times video of April 26 was immediately followed by a New York Times article titled The Times Uses Forensic Mapping to Verify a Syrian Chemical Attack. This second article describes the same erroneous conclusions of the forensic analysis reported in the earlier video, but unlike the video, it does not show the extensive forensic evidence that could be used to determine the veracity of its conclusions.

On May 5, Human Rights Watch released a report titled Death by Chemicals that also used extensive forensic evidence similar to that discussed by the New York Times. The Human Rights Watch report showed forensic evidence that was supposed to indicate the existence of an alleged the sarin release site. In my last report, I showed that this forensic video-evidence also directly contradicted the conclusions in that report.1

The forensic evidence and analytical claims in all of these reports can be traced back to a single source, an organization called Bellingcat. This organization represents itself as “specializing in analyzing information posted online.” As will be shown in what follows, not a single claim made by Bellingcat is supported by the forensic evidence it used to reach its conclusions.

The particular evidence of concern in this report are claims made by Bellingcat about three sites that were attacked by air on April 4, 2017 in Khan Sheikhoun with general-purpose bombs. The alleged locations of the locations of the sarin release site and the three sites that Bellingcat concludes were attacked with general purpose bombs are shown in Figure 1 below from the New York Times video

HARPER: WELL-DESERVED KUDOS

 

Paul Mushine, a well-known columnist for the Newark Star Ledger, wrote a "realist" critique of President Donald Trump's recent visit to Saudi Arabia, during which he "sucked up" to the Kingdom by naming Iran as the source of terrorism, thus perpetuating what some call the "Global War on Terrorism," but which Mushine and others have more properly called the new "Hundred Years War."  Mushine singled out Col. Patrick Lang and this blog as one of the best sources of "military realist" critique of the disastrous policies of this and the recent past administrations in Washington. Well worth reading in it's entirety.

http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/05/sucking_up_to_the_saudisif_they_think_a_war_with_i.html

More felonies committed by the American Espionage Spies (leakers)

"(CNN)Russian government officials discussed having potentially "derogatory" information about then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and some of his top aides in conversations intercepted by US intelligence during the 2016 election, according to two former intelligence officials and a congressional source.

One source described the information as financial in nature and said the discussion centered on whether the Russians had leverage over Trump's inner circle. The source said the intercepted communications suggested to US intelligence that Russians believed "they had the ability to influence the administration through the derogatory information.""  CNN (Dana Bash reporting)

 

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"... two former intelligence officials and a congressional source."  What do you think?  Would their initials be JB, JC and AS?  What do you think?  Do you think these "Russian government officials" were discussing such matters on unencrypted, open circuits?  No?  Well, if these intercepts and decrypts were of classified, secret Russian communications traffic, then the leaker spies have disclosed SCI COMINT.  But I suppose they are above the law.  "The source said the intercepted communications suggested to US intelligence."  That means that the US spies were above the working level in the US IC. 

 

I will say nothing of the role played by CNN in this betrayal of the United States.  By long standing legal precedent journalistic projects are immune from prosecution for disclosing government secrets, but I am filled with a great contempt for them. 

 

Are the principal spies acting alone?  I would think not.  The government has many seditionists within it. 

 

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/30/politics/russians-trump-campaign-information/

 

Operation “Grand Dawn” Post 2 - TTG

Although details are scarce and often conflicting, it appears the R+6 operation to reclaim Syria's southern border is proceeding. It is also about to come face-to-face with the Coalition plan to carve out a safe area in this part of Syria. We shall see who blinks first. 

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“Russian paratroopers and special forces arrived in the Al-Sweida Governorate of southern Syria this week, following the U.S. attack on a pro-government convoy near the Iraqi border-crossing, a military source told Al-Masdar News last night. The Russian military personnel will take the role of advising the Syrian government troops in southern Syria, while also helping to deter any potential response from the U.S. and Jordanian forces that have carved a niche in the Al-Sweida and Homs governorates.

According to some media activists in southern Syria, the Russian forces are planning to build a base along the Al-Sweida Governorate’s border with Jordan; however, this could not be confirmed by Al-Masdar News. Rumors have also surfaced regarding the deployment of the 31st Brigade of the Russian special forces; they are allegedly meant to engage the enemy forces and help the government troops seize the Iraqi border-crossing.”  (AMN)

———————————————

This Russian Brigade is the 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade based in Ulyanovsk. The brigade consists of three mechanized infantry battalions (2 air assault, 1 airborne), an artillery battalion (also mechanized), an aviation squadron and other support and combat support units. This brigade forms the core of Russia's immediate response force. In addition to its high state of combat readiness, it is well trained in peace keeping/peace enforcement operations. I have seen no reports of this unit entering combat. However, Russian advisors and spetsnaz target acquisition teams appear to be liberally spread among the SAA, NDF and other units involved in Operation Grand Dawn. There are also enough Russian aircraft and helicopters in the area to make it look like a Moscow air show.

 

Illegal Spying Under Obama by Publius Tacitus

It is fascinating to observe the media contortions as they go to extreme lengths to ignore profound and important news. I am referring specifically to the revelations that the National Security Agency, under the stewardship of Barack Obama, was illegally spying on Americans. Here's the story:

A newly released court opinion from the secretive Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) shows that for years the NSA improperly and perhaps illegally surveilled Americans. The court order triggered the surprise announcement two weeks ago that the agency would be severely scaling back its domestic surveillance and destroying previously collected data on Americans.

Thursday, the Department of Justice released the 99-page court opinion from last month that ordered the National Security Agency to delete much of its surveillance on American people, which was collected improperly and in potential violation of the Fourth Amendment. The DOJ released the opinion as part of a 2015 plan to be more transparent.

The NSA collected data about Americans if they even mentioned a foreign target.

When Intelligence Isn't - By Patrick Armstrong

I know a lot of people on this blog have experience in the intelligence world. I would be very interested in hearing what you think of my theory.

In my career in the Canadian government I was never formally in "intelligence" but I did participate in writing many "intelligence assessments". Facebook, Twitter and other kinds of social media didn't much exist at that time but, even if they had, I can't imagine that we would have ever used them as sources of evidence: social media is, to put it mildly, too easy to fake. In writing intelligence assessments, while we did use information gathered from intelligence sources (ie secret), probably more came from what was rather pompously called OSInt (Open Source Intelligence; in other words, stuff you don't need a security clearance to learn). What was, however, the most important part of creating an assessment was the long process of discussion in the group. Much talk and many rewrites produced a consensus opinion.

A typical intelligence assessment would start with a question – what's going on with the economy, or political leadership or whatever of Country X – and would argue a conclusion based on facts. So: question, argument, conclusion. And usually a prediction – after all the real point of intelligence is to attempt to reduce surprises. The intelligence assessment then made its way up the chain to the higher ups; they may have ignored or disagreed with the conclusions but, as far as I know, the assessment, signed off by the group that had produced it, was not tampered with: I never heard of words being put into our mouths. The intelligence community regards tampering with an intelligence assessment to make it look as if the authors had said something different as a very serious sin. All of this is preparation to say that I know what an intelligence assessment is supposed to look like and that I have seen a lot of so-called intelligence assessments coming out of Washington that don't look like the real thing.

Intelligence is quite difficult. I like the analogy of trying to solve a jigsaw puzzle when you don't know what the picture is supposed to be, you don't know how many pieces the puzzle has and you're not sure that the pieces that you have are actually from the same puzzle. Let us say, for example, that you intercept a phonecall in which the Leader of Country X is telling one of his flunkeys to do something. Surely that's a gold standard? Well, not if the Leader knew you were listening (and how would you know if he did?); nor if he's someone who changes his mind often. There are very few certainties in the business and many many opportunities for getting it wrong.

So real raw intelligence data is difficult enough to evaluate; social media, on the other hand, has so many credibility problems that it is worthless; worthless, that is, except as evidence of itself (ie a bot campaign is evidence that somebody has taken the effort to do one). It is extremely easy to fake: a Photoshopped picture can be posted and spread everywhere in hours; bots can create the illusion of a conversation; phonecall recordings are easily stitched together: here are films of Buks, here are phonecalls. (But, oddly enough, all the radars were down for maintenance that day). It's so easy, in fact, that it's probably easier to create the fake than to prove that it is a fake. There is no place in an intelligence assessment for "evidence" from something as unreliable as social media.

"Anatoly, you will not believe what the idiots proposed to me!" (Dramatization)

 

"Jared Kushner and Russia’s ambassador to Washington discussed the possibility of setting up a secret and secure communications channel between Trump’s transition team and the Kremlin, using Russian diplomatic facilities in an apparent move to shield their pre-inauguration discussions from monitoring, according to U.S. officials briefed on intelligence reports.

Ambassador Sergey Kislyak reported to his superiors in Moscow that Kushner, son-in-law and confidant to then-President-elect Trump, made the proposal during a meeting on Dec. 1 or 2 at Trump Tower, according to intercepts of Russian communications that were reviewed by U.S. officials. Kislyak said Kushner suggested using Russian diplomatic facilities in the United States for the communications.

The meeting also was attended by Michael Flynn, Trump’s first national security adviser."  Washpost

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 So, what is revealed in this Washpost story?

1.  US SIGINT successfully intercepts and decrypts what must surely be encrypted Russian diplomatic communications.  You may think it is obvious that this is true but it is not obvious.  Governments always want to believe that their own communications are secured by systems that prevent penetration and decryption by their international adversaries.  A great deal of time and effort are expended on maintaining that illusion.  This story states above the fold, right corner that US officials who either produced the report of the intercept or received the report of this successful intercept outside the IC in State, Defense, the NSC, etc. informed the Washington Post of the frailty of Russian diplomatic communications.  I was once a fixture in the world of Special Security.  It was a basic belief in this field that a breach of security like this one reported in the Washpost would result in a massive effort by the penetrated party to change and improve communications systems.  Translation - US SIGINT might have to start all over again in the process of breaking into those communications.

2.  Jared Kushner does not seem to have understood the possibility that US SIGINT would intercept and decrypt any line of communications he managed to establish through Russian diplomatic facilities.  Conclusion -  He was a very ignorant fellow in such matters.

3.  LTG (ret.) Flynn was present at the meeting.  Flynn is a career intelligence officer who had been Director of DIA.  Surely, HE, knew better but evidently said nothing to Kushner like - Hey, dummy rich kid - you can't do something so stupid!  But, on the other hand, maybe it was Flynn's idea!  Yes!  I will bet that is the truth.  Flynn probably wanted to talk to the Russian generals privately.  Another dummy heard from!

4. US officials, evidently properly cleared, chose to violate their oath of clearance access to reveal one of the Crown Jewels of US intelligence from a sense of pique or frustrated revolutionary zeal.  These people can be IC officials or more likely they are cleared individual recipients who work in non-IC parts of the government.  IMO they deserve hanging.

Was Kislyak "taken aback" by the proposal.?  This was so brainless an idea that I would think that was true.  pl   

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russian-ambassador-told-moscow-that-kushner-wanted-secret-communications-channel-with-kremlin/2017/05/26/520a14b4-422d-11e7-9869-bac8b446820a_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_kushner-705pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.6a520d843117

Operation "Grand Dawn" Post 1

 

"On Thursday, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its allies announced start of the Operation “Grand Dawn in eastern Syria. The aim of the operation is to expel militants from the eastern desert and to set a foothold for a push to Deir Ezzor. The declaration followed a major success of government forces in southeastern Homs where they had liberated about 5,000 km2 and got a full control over the Damascus-Palmyra highway.

ISIS deployed a force for a counter-attack but its formidable military convoy was fully destroyed by the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Syrian Air Force en route to the Zaza triangle area. Thus, the terrorist group defense lines just collapsed.
The government advance south of the Homs-Palmyra highway also allowed government forces to isolate Jaish al-Islam militants in eastern Qalamoun and to prevent their attempt to unite efforts with US-backed militant groups operating near the Syrian-Jordanian border"  southfront

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To misquote "Old Blue Eyes,"  they're doing it their way.  It is hard to argue with this much success.  I would have gone for Idlib Province first but this is impressive.  the R+6 have now connected in one terrain mass all their previously separated road bound penetrations in the area from Damascus to Palmyra and beyond.  They seem intent on advancing to al tanf. 

This plus the declared intention of the Iraq PMU to advance to the Syria-Iraqi border would seem to put paid to US coalition plans for a redoubt base area for its FSA unicorns and assorted AQ type jihadis in the area astride the border triangle of Syria/Jordan/Iraq.

All of this is being assisted by the IS efforts to defend in the general Raqqa area.  To do this they are evidently withdrawing forces from the central desert of Syria.  The armored counterattack in this report was probably originally intended for dispatch to the Raqqa area but they were diverted to the counterattack and were destroyed by air attack out in the open desert.  Good.

Well, well, pilgrims ...  what next?  pl  

 

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-may-26-2017-syrian-army-liberated-5000km2-isis/

NATO Funding & NATO's "Destiny"

""Twenty-three of the 28 member nations are still not paying what they should," Trump told heads of NATO states assembled Thursday in Brussels. "Many of these nations owe massive amounts of money from past years."   It's not the first time Trump has suggested other NATO members have a debt to pay. 

But NATO does not keep a running tab of what its members spend on defense. Treaty members target spending 2% of economic output on defense -- but that is merely a guideline.  NATO members spend money on their own defense. The funds they send to NATO directly account for less than 1% of overall defense spending by members of the alliance. CNN.com

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Less than 1% of the funds committed for overall defense by the member states are paid to NATO as an organization.  These are used for running headquarters, a communications spine, etc.  The other 99% are spent by the member states on their own defense.  Can it really be that DJT does not know that?  That seems impossible but ...

And then there is the grander question of NATO's purpose in the post-USSR world.  The alliance was founded for the purpose of holding Western Europe together in a bloc to resist Soviet hegemonism.  That was its only purpose.  Well, the Soviet Union no longer exists.  The Borg strives mightily every day to make people believe that today's Russia = the USSR but that is a mighty hard sell if the pitch is not made to people who know no history, geography, economics, and who cannot think for themselves.

Russia is nothing like the USSR.  There is no good reason for NATO to exist other than as a plaything for Borgist meddlers.  Let the Europeans defend themselves.  Is that not what the existence of the EU implies?  Are these countries not capable of managing their own affairs?  pl  

http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/25/news/nato-funding-explained-trump/index.html

First among unequals.

The news is replete today with PM Teresa May's well phrased outrage over the same US government leaks to the press that have outraged President Trump.  In this case it is likely IMO that some group like NYPD under Mayor Blasio's influence leaked to the NY Times.

Let us be clear about the possibility that UK intelligence (MI-5, MI-6 and the military) or police intelligence will stop cooperating with the US IC.   The possibility is ZERO.  I know as much as anyone of the nature of the relationships of the US IC and its allies as anyone.  The US contribution to all of these is somewhere between 80% and 95%.  These folks have very little real collection and analytic capabilities.  We give them everything and they cannot give us much of anything because they have nothing.   There are exceptions.  The US IC and the British "old boys club" are welded at the hip.  Our thing grew from their thing in WW2.  Before that our war plans were based on the idea of the British Empire as the enemy.  The US IC and that of the UK are virtually the same thing in the SIGINT field and James Bond fantasies aside, no one has trusted MI-6 since Philby.  Israel/US intelligence relations are overwhelmingly conducted on the basis of the Israeli attitude of "what's mine is mine and what's yours is mine as well."  The French have excellent HUMINT in their former empire but aside from their excellent soldierly qualities the rest is not much.  All the rest of US intel liaison relationships across the world is mostly a matter of diplomacy. 

I am so tired of the mendacious BS.  pl

Open Thread - 25 May 2017

pl

"Iraqi Government Confirms Cooperation With Syria, Iran And Russia ..." - South Front

 

"The Iraqi government has officially confirmed a cooperation with Syria, Iran and Russia to secure the Syrian-Iraqi border. According to the Iraqi Interior Ministry, there is a cooperation between the four countries on this issue.  The Iraqi media also reported refering Iraqi officials that Iraq and its allies will not allow establishing of any “buffer zone” between two countries."   South Front

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Well, pilgrims,  this is some really bad news for the "US led coalition." 

1.  The US has struggled since the invasion and occupation of Iraq to make the country a reliable ally  in its wars against regional actors in the ME.  One can debate endlessly what the causes were for these wars.  The "oilies" and other economic determinists have their explanation.  The Zionist conspiracy fans have theirs.  The "demonic forces" people (me) have ours.   The MIC crowd have theirs. But, no matter what your explanation the reality of the long military COIN, financial and political struggle cannot be seriously doubted.  If you think it was somehow not a real struggle look at the pictures of men with metal, robotic looking legs in the ads for various wounded veterans' aid groups. 

2.  The present government of the US along with its European allies is now continuing to struggle to help its painfully clumsy Iraqi government ally to capture Mosul against rather small but incredible determined Sunni Muslim fanatics who, in the main, would rather be dead than live in the Western mindset of the 21st Century.

3.  A while back Mattis and Kushner went to Baghdad to see Al-Abadi, the  "moderate" Shia Arab prime minister.  One must imagine that at least part of the message was an exhortation to "get your act together."  And a few days ago the Iraqi Shia population was treated to the spectacle of President Trump not only being "appointed" mukhtar in America but then his further denunciation of Iran the foremost Shia power center.  The Sunni princeling lounging in a chair behind Trump watched him IMO as a cat watches a bird.  One can only imagine the conversation among the potentates and dictators in that room after the mukhtar had finished his obeisance. 

4.  Iraq, Russia, Syria and Iran are now proclaimed to be allies by the Iraqi Interior Minister (police and police troops)The US with its encrusted neocon, ziocon and R2P Borg blew the last 15 years in the Islamic World and we are obviously invincibly ignorant and determined to remain so.  pl

 

https://southfront.org/iraqi-government-confirms-cooperation-with-syria-iran-and-russia-to-secure-syrian-iraqi-border-video/

 

English Outsider on Manchester

 

I, the turcopolier, have made this comment by EO into a front page post so don't complain about the lack of paragraphing.  pl

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"Colonel, Manchester was as bitter as we have had. As bitter as 9/11 or the London bombings, perhaps more so because the targets were young people just setting out on the road to adulthood. That is a time of promise. It should not be a time of death. It is more bitter than most of us know. It is worse because we ourselves have contributed to the tragedy. On the one hand we have thousands upon thousands in our police forces and in our intelligence agencies straining every nerve to prevent such tragedies. On the other we are heaping fuel on the fire of fundamentalist Muslim terrorism with every day that passes. That is sometimes said too glibly. There are those who claim that we in the West are the root cause of Jihadi terrorism simply because we have intervened so much in the Middle East. Maybe that is so, for some Jihadis, but Muslim fundamentalism is such a strong growth that it needed no Western provocation to set it in motion. No, what we have done is more than that. We have not only removed or weakened the regimes that inhibited, more or less, that growth. What we have done is to encourage Jihad to flourish on an immensely greater scale. That increased scale increases its glamour and its pull for our English Muslims many times over. That increases greatly the chance that they will fall victim to that glamour. That increases greatly the probability of terrorist attacks. By chance I came across a video, just a short time before Manchester, that summed this murderous foolishness up. For all I know it may be a staged video - so many are - or compiled for PR purposes. But staged or contrived though it may be, the video sets out with grim clarity how we have contributed to, set the scene for indeed, the deaths of our own. https://freespeechdefense.net/2017/05/i-wonder-why-this-is-being-censored/ I refer to the section starting at nine minutes. It sets out what perhaps all on your site know but so few elsewhere. Western countries have been arming and training Muslim fighters knowing full well that those fighters were Jihadis, and were more than likely to join even more extreme Jihadi units. Knowing full well also that some of those Jihadis, but now trained in killing and invigorated by contact with other true believers, would return to their countries of origin and do what harm they could. Later on, in the copy of the video I have seen, we hear Jihadists, English and German nationals among them, making it clear they have the intention of doing that if they can. But if that were all then perhaps the danger would not be so great. Those thousands and thousands of our security forces at home do at least have a fighting chance of knowing who's been over there and who's come back. They know what they have to deal with even if that is a difficult task. What we fail to understand is the appeal of the Jihadi cause to our own disenchanted Muslim young at home, and how we ourselves have so greatly magnified that appeal. We fail to understand that what is to us atrocity upon atrocity in Syria is to them a great cause. We see ragged groups of thugs using, often inexpertly, the deadly equipment we give them or the supply of which we facilitate. They see a band of glorious martyrs. We see a mix of ethnic cleansing and rule by terror, covertly used by us to weaken regimes we don't like. They see only meritorious conquest leading to a cleaner and more just society. Can we wonder that to a number of our idealistic young, some of whom experience more than the rest of us the dysfunctionality of parts of Western society, the glamour of such a vision is irresistible? We, operating through our intelligence agencies and Special Forces, have presented them with the stage upon which that vision can be exhibited. And from his English home the loner or the psychotic or the idealist can see that great stage that we have set up and wish, somehow, to be part of it. It is not significant whether Manchester was the work of a homegrown loner or of an organised gang; the vision that inspired the commission of the atrocity is the vision we engineered. For there is now no doubt that the flood of foreign Jihadis that have wreaked such havoc in Syria and neighbouring countries was released by us or with our active complicity. It could not have happened but for Western assistance. We do not acknowledge it. We pretend that the tragedy of Manchester has no relation to our contribution to the tragedy in the Middle East. As here, from a BBC report - "Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham said the city would "pull together", adding: "That's what we are. That's what we do. They won't win." As if, as the Mayor of London intimated recently, bomb attacks were phenomena that we just have to learn to live with. As if they were simply there, and no cause for them. Or no cause we have anything to do with. Just after the London bombing I met a journalist who worked for one of the broadsheets. He was proud of the fact, as well he might have been, that he and his colleagues went in to work the next day undaunted, as did, I believe, most Londoners. Looking back more than seventy years he conjured up the spirit of the Blitz. No matter what they throw at us we don't give in. We muddle on. "That's what we do." So he spoke. I held my peace. How could a journalist of all people, I did not say, fail to know that we had in large measure brought it upon ourselves? How could we be such fools? Police and intelligence in this country, all thousands of them, holding terrorism at bay. Their colleagues abroad creating the conditions in which it can grow; deliberately setting the scene for the deadly vision to flourish past any heights it could have achieved unaided, that deadly vision which now inspires so many of our disenchanted Muslims or Muslim converts here. We are fools in deadly truth, and it is our young who have paid for it in Manchester. "  EO

Tidbits - 23 May 2017

Media meltdown over President Trump.  The ravening MSM types in most of the available platforms for propaganda are eagerly awaiting DT's return from overseas so that it can get on with the its basic objective - impeachment.  Neither CNN nor MSNBC makes any effort in disguising their essential focus on impeachment.  The level of their fascination with this now extends to their network  news services own advertising.  MSNBC now runs a staged ad in which a woman reporter is portrayed as chasing a congressman down a hallway while badgering him for "answers" to hypotheticals as to what he will do if Trump is "proven" to have obstructed justice.  It is now evident (to me) that "obstruction of justice" will be the main thrust of the impeachment drive.  Mueller's investigation of Comey's various statements, memos and the like now seems to be intended to elicit evidence of President Trumps supposed obstruction.  Since he has a grand jury at his disposal and is conducting a criminal investigation (as opposed to the congressional counter-intelligence investigations) Mueller's investigation could easily result in an indictment of President Trump if that is legally possible with a sitting president.  IMO that would trigger a resolution of impeachment in the House of Representative.  DNI Dan Coats declined this morning before the US Senate to state whether or not Trump had tried to persuade him to help in shutting down the Russia collusion investigations.  This is probably a preview of what others may say to Mueller under oath.  This may well be the crack of doom for Trump.

The Mukhtar of America, Donald Trump has signed the US up to be a firm partisan of the Sunnis.  This evidently extends to the Saudi led genocidal war being waged by the GCC with its army of mercenaries and US provided air material AND TARGETING.  Zaidi Yemenis among the northern mountain tribes as well as in the major cities are being bombed pitilessly by the Royal Saudi Air Force evidently trying to put into practice The Douhet derived concept of bombing populations into surrender.  The senior Saudi bird men in charge probably learned this doctrine at the US Air University at Montgomery, Alabama.

While visiting Israel/Palestine Mukhtar Trump once again stated his allegiance not only to the Israeli state but also doubled down on identification of the US as Iran's greatest enemy.  Rouhani, in Teheran, has said in the last couple of days, that his government is waiting to see if Trump's Administration "matures."  Good luck on that.  For the meeting with Muhammad Abbas, the Trump cavalcade proceeded to Bethlehem by road.  The distance is five or six miles.  According to the Washington Post today "most of Trump's people "were surprised that the Jews and the Arabs lived so near each other.  Mukhtar Trump  has said that employing his legendary negotiating skills he will easily bring peace to the Palestinians and Israeli Jews.  Good luck on that as well!   His government is in the hands of people who know as little of the Middle East as he.  The old timers, the hated "Arabists" are very nearly all gone from the US government, replaced by people who think that Political Science and International Relations studies are a better field of study than traditional area studies in language, history, philosophy, literature, ethnography, etc.   Perhaps the mukhtar should stay on the scene to achieve peace.  

 

Is President Trump now Mukhtar of America?

 

In the Middle East the village headman is usually referred to as the Mukhtar, the chosen one, chosen by the ruling force in the country, selected to administer the district with the backing of the government's money.

I watched the show in the reception palace in Riyadh with eyes that may have seen the proceedings differently than many other people.

What I saw was a carefully staged spectacle in which the Saudis brought together most of the political leaders in the Islamic World to witness President Trump's acceptance of Saudi leadership in the Middle East.

In the Arab World when someone submits to you and accepts your money as a follower and tool, the culturally authentic thing to do is to make the experience as painless as possible.

The Saudis will now expect that the US will understand that their $110 billion in defense purchases and $40 billion in contributions from the Saudi state's sovereign wealth fund will buy power in Washington and that their carefully and politely stated demands will be greeted with great receptivity in the future.

The Israelis are a bit shaky about this?  Well, pilgrims, they should be.  They have spent a lot of time and effort and a fairly limited amount of money constructing an apparat in AIPAC that successfully manipulates both US policy and public opinion.   And now the Saudis have simply bought the same thing with all that money?  This must be disheartening for the Israelis and their supporters in the US. 

The "rub" will come of course when the Saudis try to crack the whip over Trump.  pl  

 

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/05/22/israeli-minister-expresses-concerns-over-us-saudi-arabia-deal-ahead-trump-visit.html

http://time.com/4787797/donald-trump-yemen-saudi-arabia-arms-deal/

"Hezbollah, Iraqi forces poised to help Syrian Army capture Baghdad-Damascus Highway" AMN

"Over the course of ten days, hundreds of Hezbollah and Iraqi paramilitary fighters have poured into the southeastern countryside of Damascus, taking up positions alongside the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and their allies.

The Iraqi paramilitaries, comprised of fighters from the Popular Mobilization Units (Hashd Al-Sha’abi), greatly outnumber the Hezbollah forces in southern Syria and for good reason.

Similar to Hezbollah’s field operations along the Lebanese border from 2013-present, the Iraqi paramilitaries are poised to not only secure the Baghdad-Damascus Highway, but also, seal the border from any jihadist forces.

Elements of the Popular Mobilization Units have been inside of Syria for 15 months, with the initial forces deployed to Damascus (Sayyida Zaynab area), Aleppo, and Deir Ezzor.

The Popular Mobilization Units will now have much more responsibility inside Syria, as the government in Damascus hopes their participation will help eliminate the last remnants of the Islamic State (ISIL) inside the country.     AMN

----------------

The map above is labeled "eastern countryside of Suweida Governorate"  It shows the advance of combined R+6 forces to the east from Suweida Governorate and the Jebel Druze.  The map shows the distance from the advanced positions as 133 km.  This has probably changed since the map was drawn.

In the last days we have seen the movement of Iraqi Shia Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) to the Iraqi border with Syria in the al-tanf area even as the confrontation of Iraqi PMU continues in al-bukamal border area to the east of al-tanf.  The SAG government now states that it hopes to see the Iraqi PMU play a larger role in the war against the Sunni extremists.  If that is so, then what form will that assistance take?  Will the Iraqi PMU advance across the frontier to relieve the long besieged and hard fighting Syrian government of deir al-zor?  The distance from al-bukamal is not great and this would be a significant contribution to the defeat of IS in the struggle the R+6 coalition is waging to preserve multi-confessional government in Syria

Yesterday a group of 60 Norwegian soldiers, present in Iraq to conduct training were moved to the al-tanf border crossing from Syria into Jordan.  They are present WITHOUT the permission of the sovereign government of Syria.  Why are they there?  My conclusion is that they are there to strengthen the "trip-wire" provided by US and UK troops intended to dissuade the R+6 from overrunning al-tanf to restores SAG control of that piece of the border and block the US coalition's likely attempt to build a "redoubt" in SE Syria.

At the same time it is now known that the Turkish government has begun training yet more FSA fighters in the part of Syria that Turkey occupied in its recently completed offensive in northern Syria.  That offensive toward central Syria ended IMO only because its further progress was blocked by the SAA and SDF forces.  The Al-Qa'ida branch in Syria is now called Hayat Tahrir al0-Sham (HTS).  Even they have concluded that the most likely use to be made by the Turks for these new forces is in an invasion for Idlib Governorate.  If this occurs and a "resistance" redoubt is also created in SE Syria, the stage will be set for a final drama in Syria.  pl  

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/hezbollah-iraqi-forces-poised-help-syrian-army-capture-baghdad-damascus-highway/

Has James Comey Committed Perjury? by Publius Tacitus

This will be pretty simple--James Comey is either a liar or the people speaking to the news media on his behalf are liars. There is no middle ground. The issue? Did Donald Trump or someone else in his Administration try to obstruct the FBI investigation into "Russian" influence in the Trump campaign and Presidency?

Comey was asked that very question under oath during a May 3rd hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee by Hawaii's Senator Hirono:

HIRONO: So if the Attorney General or senior officials at the Department of Justice opposes a specific investigation, can they halt that FBI investigation?

COMEY: In theory yes.

HIRONO: Has it happened?

COMEY: Not in my experience. Because it would be a big deal to tell the FBI to stop doing something that -- without an appropriate purpose. I mean where oftentimes they give us opinions that we don't see a case there and so you ought to stop investing resources in it. But I'm talking about a situation where we were told to stop something for a political reason, that would be a very big deal. It's not happened in my experience.

In other words, no one at Trump's DOJ tried to halt the FBI investigation. Very simple. 

But that's not a story that CNN and the rest of the anti-Trump media want to push. CNN is up today with this screamer:

Comey now believes Trump was trying to influence him, source says

If Trump was trying to get Comey to back down on the investigation of Flynn or any other aspect of the so-called Russian case then Comey had a sworn duty to inform Congress. He was under oath on the 3rd. He did not even give a hint that President Trump was acting in an unusual or even illegal fashion with respect to the FBI investigation of the Trump Campaign.

CNN must be on crack or something. I simply cannot fathom a scenario in which Comey will risk perjuring himself. If he now testifies that Trump was trying to influence the investigation then it cannot be passed off as a simple misunderstanding of Senator Hirono's question on May 3rd.

Quelle Surprise! By Richard Sale

 

Part One 

It is not beyond the realm of possibility that the information given to President Trump by Israel and passed to the Russians was something the Russians already knew about. 

I cite this story below.

Soviet spies infiltrate Mossad, sources say

 

"By RICHARD SALE   |   Dec. 14, 1987

0 Comments

WASHINGTON -- Soviet infiltration of Israel's spy agency, Mossad, is the most serious blow to Israeli intelligence since the 1970s and U.S. intelligence also was breached as a result, U.S. intelligence sources reveal.

Mossad has been penetrated by 'highly placed' Soviet moles and a full-scale internal counterintelligence investigation is under way, the intelligence sources said.

A Justice Department source said U.S. counterintelligence agents became aware of the Israeli-Soviet espionage pipeline when data stolen by Jonathan Jay Pollard, a U.S. Navy analyst convicted of spying for Israel, was 'traced to the Eastern bloc.'

Intelligence sources said data reaching the Soviets via this route included sensitive U.S. weapons technology and strategic information about the defense forces of Turkey, Pakistan and moderate Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia.

U.S. intelligence analysts said the Pollard data was traded to the Soviets in return for promises to increase emigration of Soviet Jews to Israel.

One analyst said Israel's 'right-wing' Jews are involved with spying for the Soviets and called it 'ironic,' noting that left-wing elements were responsible for similar scandals in the past.

A senior U.S. official said morale in Mossad 'had plummeted' but refused to comment on whether the breach had damaged U.S.-Israeli intelligence ties.

In Jerusalem, an Israeli government spokesman denied knowledge of the security breach.

'I know nothing about all that,' said Avi Pazner, spokesman for the prime minister's office. 'It seems to be utter fantasy.'

A State Department spokesman also declined comment. But an administration official said the Soviet penetration of Mossad was discussed at meetings of CIA, FBI and other U.S. counterintelligence specialists about the Pollard case.

'One of the guys was commenting that if Pollard had stolen stuff, at least it was going to a U.S. ally, but a CIA guy spoke up and said that if Mossad was involved it meant that copies of everything were going to (the KGB's) Moscow center,' the source said.

Pollard began serving a life sentence early this year in what U.S. officials have called one of the worst intelligence disasters in U.S. history, according to a senior administration official.

Asked to describe the Israeli-Soviet spies, an administration intelligence source said: 'They are highly placed agents in the top echelon of Mossad.' The source also said the infiltration has occurred at 'very significant levels.'

Israel has launched a full-scale investigation into the Soviet infiltration, disguising it as 'a probe into financial corruption' of some Mossad agents, an administration source said.

The source emphasized that 'counterintelligence investigations always begin with the painstaking study of financial vouchers,' inquiries aimed at determining whether an agent has received large, unexplained payments or lived an unusually high lifestyle. Another source said most double agents 'are caught by the careful study of documents.'

Israel apparently was first used as a base for Soviet agents in the early 1960s, when Professor Kurt Sitte, a nuclear physicist at the Institute of Technology at Haifa, was exposed as a Soviet agent.

Sitte, a specialist in cosmic radiation working with the U.S. Air Force, was convicted in 1961.

Movement through the Jebel Druze toward al-tanf.

 

"The Syrian Arab Army (SAA), alongside several paramilitary units, captured a large chunk of rebel-held territory in the eastern countryside of Al-Sweida, a military source told Al-Masdar last night.

According to the military source, the Syrian Arab Army and their allies seized more than 60 square kilometers of territory in the Al-Zalfa area of Al-Sweida, marking the second largest advance for the pro-government forces in the last 72 hours.

With the Al-Zalfa area secured, the Syrian Arab Army and their allies will push further east in order to secure the provincial border and surround the US-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) near the Al-Tanf border-crossing to Iraq.

Prior to Friday night’s advance, the Syrian Arab Army and their allies were the target of US Coalition airstrikes in southeast Homs; this attack resulted in the death of six military personnel.

While the operation is led by the Syrian Arab Army, several pro-government paramilitary units are also participating in this offensive, including the National Defense Forces (NDF), Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), Saraya Al-‘Areen, Hezbollah, and Kataeb Imam Al-‘Ali (Iraqi paramilitary)."  AMN

----------------------

 For those of you who are "challenged" when dealing with maps and military affairs, I hope you will understand this post..

Following the 18 May US air attack on a Syrian Army led armored column 50 kilometers NW of al-tanf, Syria  (no upper case letters in Arabic), the question was raised on SST as to why this column was advancing straight down the Damascus-Baghdad highway rather than advancing from the west through Suweida Governorate and the Jebel Druze. (jebel = mountain in Arabic).

Well, here you have the answer.  The R+6 is also advancing along that axis.  Look at the red circle folks.  That indicates center of mass and the arrow indicates direction of movement.   Evidently Druze objections to movement in that direction through their territory have been overcome.

It would seem to me that the SAG intention is clear.  They intend to occupy and control their southern borders with Jordan and Iraq.  IMO the US will resist that effort.  pl  

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-backed-rebels-lose-large-chunk-territory-syrian-army-east-sweida/

Joe Lieberman and the Three Amigos

 

"Charles Freeman Jr.’s withdrawal of his acceptance of a high-level intelligence position in the Obama administration was a national-security drama more riveting than an episode of “24.” The moral was clear: even a president who owes his job to a progressive movement in American politics could not support a longtime public servant who had made the mistake of criticizing Israel. Fierce advocates of the Jewish state, notably Sens. Chuck Schumer and Joe Lieberman and Reps. Eric Cantor and Steve Israel, played important roles in Freeman’s exit, while present and former officials of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee flitted in and out of the wings.

The message to all office-seekers is obvious. “They want to kill the chicken to scare the monkeys. They want other people to be intimidated,” Freeman told The American Conservative just before he withdrew his name to be chairman of the National Intelligence Council. He went on, “If the administration does not stick with me, then it’s destroying the argument that the Israel lobby is only a mythic entity and does not control the public space. … It will show the world that it is not able to exercise independent thinking on these issues.”"  Weiss

---------------

 I used to know Senator Joe Lieberman quite well.  I met him in the course of my third or fourth career, this one as a fellow who introduced people.  He is affable, polite, hospitable, and seemingly open to new ideas.

But there are a number of problems with the idea of making him Director of the FBI:

1.  He is too old.  The FBI Director works a very hard schedule and Joe Lieberman is 75 years old.  His ten year term would end when he would be 85.  This is out of the question.

2.  He is a politician.  His on again, off again love affair with the Democratic Party should, in itself, be a bar to appointment to head yhe US' most important national police force and counter-intelligence group.  Would the Republicans other than his pals, McCain and Graham, ever trust this Democrat?

3.  He was an ardent supporter of the disastrous Iraq War.  He and the other Amigos, McCain the strange, and Graham the oddball South Carolinian, traveled endlessly to Iraq, usually stopping off in Tel Aviv going and/or coming for a "booster shot" in enthusiasm for the project.  There surely should be some questioning of his judgment over this.

4.  He has no police or investigative experience other than a period as AG of Connecticut a long time ago.  He is not a cop.  Nor is he a CI spook.

5.   He is very close to AIPAC, the un-registered and IMO illegal Zionist lobby.

6.  Ambassador Charles (Chas) Freeman is probably the most skilled US diplomat in the last century in regard to matters involving the Middle East and the Arab World.  Joe was one of those who led the effort to block Freeman's appointment as head of the National Intelligence Council, a DNI function that writes all national intelligence estimates.  Relentless resistance by what Freeman called "The IsraeliLobby" caused Freeman to withdraw from the process. 

I URGE THE PESIDENT TO RESIST THOSE URGING HIM TO APPOINT JOE LIEBERMAN TO HEAD THE FBI.  pl 

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/freemans-fight/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Lieberman

Incident at Al-Tanf - TTG

Yesterday a CJTFOIR spokesperson issued the following statement concerning an attack on Syrian forces thirty kilometers northwest of the Syrian-Iraqi border crossing of Al-Tanf.

“The coalition struck pro-regime forces that were advancing well inside an established de-confliction zone northwest of Al-Tanf, Syria, May 18, and that posed a threat to U.S. and partner forces at Al-Tanf.  This action was taken after apparent Russian attempts to dissuade Syrian pro-regime movement south towards Al-Tanf were unsuccessful, a coalition aircraft show of force, and the firing of warning shots.  Coalition forces have been operating in the At Tanf area for many months training and advising vetted partner forces engaged in the fight against ISIS.  The agreed upon de-confliction zone agreement remains in effect.”

Al Masdar News was told the following by the Syrian military headquarters in Damascus:

- The U.S. Coalition warplane entered Syrian airspace from the Jordanian border

- A convoy of five T-62 tanks were hit by the U.S. Coalition

- Two tanks were destroyed

- A Shilka was damaged

- Six military personnel were killed and another three were wounded

- Convoy consisted of soldiers from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), National Defense Forces (NDF), Hezbollah, and Imam Al-‘Ali Battalions   

First, let’s establish the importance of Al-Tanf. It lies along the Baghdad-Damascus highway on the Syrian-Iraqi border. Its importance to Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon (the dreaded Shia Crescent) should be obvious. That is also why it is so important to the Coalition, the Saudis, Qataris and the Israelis. The Coalition is using the Al-Tanf area as a base for their new unicorn army whose real purpose is, not to fight IS, but to ensure Syria does not regain her territorial integrity. US and British special operations forces are training and equipping rebel units there including the Maghaweir Al-Thawra group. This outfit recently advanced east of Al-Tanf towards the Euphrates. If the SAA took Al-Tanf, these rebels would be cut off from their Coalition support.

The Coalition has unilaterally declared a thirty kilometer or so exclusionary zone around Al-Tanf. Even so, our new unicorns at Al-Tanf have been attacked by IS jihadis at least twice. They have also been attacked by Russian and Syrian aircraft on two occasions. Yesterday, the Coalition decided to enforce their exclusion zone. Syrian forces were denied access to Syrian territory by lethal US force.

Yesterday’s attack on the Syrian column was done with the full knowledge and direction of the CJCS and President. We deliberately risked killing Russian advisors who accompanied this SAA column. This attack exposes this administration’s true objectives in the region. Apologists cannot write this off as some mistake attributed to the fog of war or some clever three dimensional chess gambit. It is a craven embrace of the “Assad must go” policy and everything it stands for.

How will the R+6 respond? The offensive to open the Damascus-Baghdad highway will continue. The assault from the west with the SAA’s 5th and 7th armored divisions has already made good progress in the Al-Sweida Governate against the US-backed Jaysh Assoud Al-Sharqiya. Further north, the SAA’s 5th Legion along with forces from Hezbollah, NDF and the Imam Ali Battalions are poised to resume their offensive towards Al-Tanf. These forces will now, undoubtedly, be accompanied by Russian and Syrian air defense and air support. The SAA column struck by coalition aircraft today was probably just a reconnaissance in force. What’s coming? Here’s a possibility. “And I looked, and behold a pale horse, and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.” 

TTG

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/18/world/us-syria-airstrikes/

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-syria-anger-us-airstrike-syrian-troops-bashar-assad-al-tanf/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/pictures-syrian-army-reinforcements-pour-syrian-desert-despite-us-airstrikes/

Solar and Lunar Letters in Arabic

For those of you who might be troubled that  a name/noun like "Al-Tanf" is written by westerners as "At-Tanf," there is this:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_and_moon_letters

 

pl

Patrick Armstrong Sitrep # 1

As an experiment, and with PL's agreement, I'm posting my regular Sitrep on Russia-related matters. There are 200+ more on my site plus many other writings

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 18 MAY 2017
RUSSIA INC. More Western sources agree that Russia's economy is growing again – EBRD, UN and IMF. Even Stratfor, which predicted Russia's collapse, now admits it's doing well. Which is no big news for those of us who ignored the NYT, WaPo and their friends. All I can say is: stop drinking each other's bath water and do the work.
VICTORY DAY. What struck my attention was the Arctic camouflage air defence systems. Here's the full parade. Here is the first parade on 24 June 1945: limos have replaced horses, loudspeaker trucks are less important, Nazi banners are stored away, but otherwise recognisable.
HISTORY. Much has been written about Putin's views on Russia's tangled history; much of it rubbish. Let's listen to the man himself as he unveiled a monument to a grand duke assassinated in the Kremlin. "Russia’s history is regaining its unity. We treasure each page in this history, no matter how difficult. These are our national spiritual roots." It has to be all of it, doesn't it? They've already been through years of changing history around to suit present needs.
OIL PRICES. Moscow and Riyadh have agreed agree to extend the oil production cut. The January cut was initially successful at boosting prices, but they have fallen of late.
SYRIA. We do appear to have a measure of agreement among the principals, including Washington. Here's the text of the "de-escalation zones" agreement. Still much that is murky though: are Washington and Ankara about to shoot at each other? Has Washington stopped the Assad must go stuff or not? Faked up atrocity stories continue. Is Washington still недоговороспособны – incapable of making agreements – as this would suggest? It's all rather ambiguous; but I do understand that it takes a long time to turn a big ship around, especially when it's surrounded – to keep the analogy going – by little boats pushing the other way and people in the engine room resisting the timoneer. I believe that my theory on last month's airstrikes has not been falsified. So, things appear to be happening.
RECONSIDERATION. Let me introduce you, Dear Readers, to Graham Fuller. One of the authors of Washington's (disastrous as it turned out) policy of supporting jihadists in one place expecting to put them back into the toy box afterwards, he has reconsidered: read this. He believes that overthrowing Assad would make things much worse: "Syria Will Likely Be Run By Terrorists". He, by the way, appears to agree with my theory on the airstrikes, see last two paragraphs.
NO COMMENT. From the WaPo "NSA officials worried about the day its potent hacking tool would get loose. Then it did." At least no one is blaming Putin for this. Yet.
COMEY FIRING. Assange predicts leaks will begin. One: Russian hacker claims FBI tried to bribe him to say he hacked DNC. Two: "federal investigator" says Seth Rich sent e-mails to Wikileaks. Stay tuned.
AMERICA-HYSTERICA. Ever louder. But not working: Democrats dropped 5 points. Two years ago Russia was "a regional power", last year it was "important"; today its influence is everywhere; next year it will rule the world. Then I guess it's all over. I've given up my PDS series now it's merged with TDS: "Here’s how the Russians might have snuck a recording device into the Oval Office" (WaPo of course), I can't keep up. Dimwitted and dangerous. Roman comparisons are trendy: try Cato and the Optimates.
WESTERN VALUES™. Ukraine has blocked a number of Russia-based social media networks. A NATO spokesman is quoted as saying that's OK because it's "security". (NATO's "enduring mission", by the way, is "defending values".) Western values, which had real content a couple of decades ago, are now bedraggled camp followers of the juggernaut of war. (To be fair, an EU official, whom you didn't know existed, did "voice concern".)
UKRAINE. US House of Representatives passed a DoD funding bill that expressly forbade funding the Azov Battalion (Sec. 8131.) Meanwhile, in a decision it will live to regret, the EU has allowed visa free visits from Ukrainians.
NEW NWO. China hosted the Belt and Road International Forum. (The Chinese have a genius for coming up with descriptive slogans and this is one: a belt ties things together and a road communicates.) Putin was the first foreign speaker (not a coincidence, I'm sure) (his speech). Many countries attended. As always, the fact of the event itself and the side meetings were the most important. North Korea sent a delegation so probably some developments there with all its neighbours present. Eurasia: it's real, it's happening and it's the future.
© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, CanadaRussia Observer

"Desire" By Richard Sale

 

  It was a tall, unbelievably beautiful tree, finely shaped, with a great, green spreading crest, black dark green leaves, pale blossoms and long, sharp thorns.

 But in spite of its being a splendid sight, some said it was deadly.

 Certainly all the birds said so. They were used to bending the branches of a shorter, homely nearby tree with their weight as they chattered among themselves about butterflies, bees, worms and the other birds that had flown in among the magnificent trees spreading branches and had never been seen again.

 “It may be a beautiful tree, but who cares if you look beautiful if that’s what you’re really like,” said one fluffy brown bird.

 And then the birds all gossiped about the strange, towering tree, so beautiful and so alluring, and yet so sinister. But in grand, stately appearance and various attractions, truly the tree had no like.

  Then a strange bird, a newcomer, flew into the deep wood.

  He was red in color with a big crest, strong-beaked, and he was a bird who clearly liked to think things out for himself.

  That was his strength. He heard what others said, but it never moved him, for he thought with his eyes. They alone told him the truth. The eyes never lied to you.

  The new bird instantly saw that the tall tree was beautiful. He saw its lines, its grace, and its majesty of spectacle. He clung tightly with his clawed feet to a branch of a tree nearby and looked at the tall magnificent tree, struck, moved, touched.

  Around him, one by one, gathered the full, feathery chattering sparrows and small birds who talked tirelessly of the tall tree.

  One, a little sparrow, quite fearless, tilted her head to one side and said to the big red bird, “Why do you watch it so?”

   “Because it is a pleasure to my eyes,” the crested bird said, not deigning to look at the sparrow.

  The sparrow quickly shook its head. “If something harmful were ugly, you wouldn’t look at it, but because the tree is pretty, you can’t take your eyes from it.”

  The sparrow thought its remark clever and insightful, but the crested bird thought the sparrow merely envious of the tree’s size and beauty.

  He didn’t see that the little sparrow respected and cared for him as a friend and fellow creature.

  The crested bird kept looking at the tree. He kept thinking, “Perhaps no one has looked at it as I am looking at it. Perhaps if I look deeply enough, I will see what no one else has seen, something beyond the rumors, something beyond the fear, something enduring and wonderful, that is hidden from the rest.”

  And he kept looking at the tree, gazing at it, rapt.

  Twilight came, softening the outlines of things, darkening the mountain, the bushes and shrubs, and the red bird sat and watched the darkening tree.

  In the dark, its color gone, the delicate blossoms muffled, the outline of the tall tree was a sinister shape full of menace.

  And the bird felt a flicker of fear. Maybe the other birds were right and he was wrong.

  He snuffled his feet and feathers, uneasy, still looking at the tree from his branch, about to fly away, when a voice was heard to say:

  “You needn’t feel fear. You needn’t be afraid.”

  And the bird looked this way and that, wondering where the voice was coming from and to whom it was speaking.

  “It is you, and only you, that I am addressing,” said the voice, coming clearly to him across the darkening air.

  The bird nerved up his courage, for he was not in the habit of taking counsel of his fears, but he was hardly able to believe what was happening. Finally, it addressed the dark, huge towering shape, feeling foolish and frightened.

  “I am here. Who is speaking to me?”

  “I speak to you through your heart,” said the voice.

  The bird, greatly alarmed, almost flew away, and it was only with a great effort that he calmed himself and remained on his branch.

  “But who are you?” he said.

  “I am your heart’s desire,” the voice said kindly.

   The bird cocked his head, entranced, alert but listening.

  “I have no heart’s desire,” the bird said, “and if I did, I would tell no one of it, for fear they might find a way into my heart and be able to do me harm.”

  The tree with its spreading, dark outline answered: “I would not harm you. I may have harmed others, but that was because they came to feed on my blossoms or peck into my sap, or try to make use of me in some way. So many have tried. All have tried. But I have seen the way you look at me, and you I would not harm.”

  The bird, greatly disconcerted, cocked its head to the other side, shifting its clawed feet on the branch. “And how have I looked at you?”

  “With love, with gentle love. Because you don’t believe the other birds,” said the lovely voice.

  The red bird, nervous, puts its head down, then up, and then cocked it to one side.

  “That means only that I wish to think for myself,” he said.

  “Then why do you look at me so?” said the voice from the tree.

  The bird, nervous, shifted position again.

  “Because you are beautiful,” the bird said, quietly, but firm and fearless in telling the truth.

Washington Elite Opts to Destroy Trump at All Costs by Publius Tacitus

The agitprop offensive against Donald Trump over the last two days has unmasked the breadth and scope of the anti-Trump opposition. The destroy Trump cadre includes most members of the press (written and electronic), the Democrats, the Socialists and the traditional Republican so-called moderates. It also includes civil servants, many in the intelligence community, who remain loyal to Barack Obama and are nothing more than embedded insurgents committed to forcing Trump from office.

If Trump does not understand or appreciate this reality then he is not intelligent enough to be president and should be removed from office. The onslaught started yesterday with the bogus news that Trump supposedly exposed a sensitive source to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. The dishonesty of the media was apparent to anyone who understood that Trump has full authority to declassify and classify information. He is fully entitled to tell the Russians whatever he wants. In this case, if we are to believe Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, the Washington Post story was not true. But truth is not the issue here. The goal is to paint Trump as an incompetent boob who must be removed from office.

The drumbeat continues last night--BREAKING NEWS was blaring on all the cable channels with the claim that Trump tried to get Comey to stop investigating Michael Flynn. There is only one problem with this story--the investigation has continued unabated. So, no matter what Trump may have said, the investigation has not been derailed nor disrupted. But that fact matters little to the media lynch mob eager for some strange fruit. They want a hanging.

This is going to continue until Trump carries out the equivalent of a public execution. Someone involved in the leaking of these stories must be caught and unmasked. Frankly, this will be another test of the competence of Trump and his team. They have allowed moles to remain in place (I've heard this repeated complaint from an friend in the upper realms of the intel community). People who should have been fired or moved when Trump took over have been allowed to stay. Well, if you don't kill the rats, don't be shocked when they eat your food and defecate in your kitchen.

The negative news on Trump is not likely to let up. In fact, it will probably intensify as he heads overseas. Rather than being able to focus on international diplomacy, Trump will be distracted, looking back over his shoulder at the flood of leaks surrounding the White House and his Presidency. He had  better learn how to build dams or he will drown.

North Korea’s Missile Program Progressing Faster Than Expected - Southfront

The North Korea missile program is progressing faster than expected, South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo said on Tuesday.

He told the parliament that the Sunday missile test was successfull and pointed out that North Korea’s missile program was developing faster than the South had expected.

“It is considered an IRBM (intermediate range ballistic missile) of enhanced caliber compared to Musudan missiles that have continually failed,” the minister said.

Earlier, the UN Security Council warned it may hit North Korea with a new round of sanctions in response to its missile tests and blaimed blamed the country for stirring up regional tension. The council also urged Pyongyang to stop its nuclear and ballistic missile activity.

“The members of the Security Council agreed that the Security Council would continue to closely monitor the situation and take further significant measures including sanctions, in line with the Council’s previously expressed determination,” the UN Security Council statement read.  Southfront

 

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I don't know much about the Koreas.  So far as I can remember I have never been in South Korea, but it seems to me that the threat of a war that the US cannot avoid there is so severe that a thread on the linked subjects of the NoKo nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs is a necessity.

The NoKo government has made it explicit that the territory, and fleet of the US are desired targets as well as US allies South Korea and Japan. 

Let's talk about it.  pl       

 

https://southfront.org/north-koreas-missile-program-progressing-faster-than-expected/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Delivery_systems

Donald Trump Will Not Survive by Publius Tacitus

I have a bet with an old friend and mentor. Both of us believe that Donald Trump will not serve his full four year term. We differ, however, on how long he will survive. My friend thinks he will have been impeached by he House by Labor Day. While I don't dismiss that as an possibility, I'm betting he will get to 2018 but become so toxic by then that Republicans will abandon him in droves. The winner of this bet buys the other dinner at s fine restaurant in Washington, DC. 

The agitprop designed to destroy Trump is alive and well and more Republicans appear to be signing on with anti-Trump memes pushed by the Democrats. But this is not a one-sided affair in terms of the effort to take Trump down. Donald Trump himself is busy shooting his own foot off with his uncontrollable mouth. 

I think a good number of voters chose Trump over Hillary in the hopes that he was actually a businessman who had the organizational skill and vision to get things done. Those voters are starting to turn on Trump. Instead of good organization the nation is being treated to a petulant display of boorish immaturity. What manager in their right mind fires the head of the FBI in such a cavalier, reckless fashion. Please understand--I believe that Comey needed to go. He needed to be fired. But there is a right way and a wrong way.

What did Trump do? He chose the wrong way and further damaged his image. 

Instead of calling Comey in for a meeting and giving him a chance to resign, Trump opted to blindside him. In doing so Trump gave the Democrats ammunition for attacking him as someone who was trying to interfere with an on-going investigation. Trump compounded the chaos by issuing a veiled threat against Comey by raising the specter that Comey's previous conversations with the President had been recorded. That has piqued the interest of Congress and we now have a bipartisan request for such tapes (if they exist). 

I personally am sick and tired of listening to the whining of people like Kelly Anne Conway, who was on Howard Kurtz's show today (Sunday) kvetching about the media's failure to focus on the trade deal with China or health care. Sorry Kelly Anne, but the media did not fire Comey and the media did not produce competing explanations about why Trump did what he did.

There is simply no excuse for this kind of impromptu decision making. Unfortunately, Trump has made a habit of this during the campaign. It did not prove fatal then. That is not likely to be the case going forward. Trump will not run for a second term. Trump will not finish his first term. The only question is when will he be forced out or call it quits. The only winners from this sad affair will be my friend and me--but we will share a great meal together.  PT

Open Thread - 14 May 2017

 

I need  a day off.  It rained here for four days.  My basement started leaking water.  The roof leaks in a place I just had repaired.  The house was built in 1913.  I suppose that if you insist on buying old houses (we do) you have to expect this kind of thing.   The sun will shine for the next week.  The workmen will come back when things dry out.  pl

The Idlib jihadi build-up continues

 

"Opposition sources announced the formation of a new force of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in northern Aleppo named. The group was named “First Corps” and created with a Turkish support.

The militant groups known as the Sultan Mohammed Al-Fateh Brigade, the Samarkand Brigade, Jaish al-Ahfad, the Al-Muntaser Bellah Brigade, the 101st Division, the Al-Fatah Brigade, the Tala’a al-Nasr Brigade joined the First Corps. The group now includes 10,000 fighters, according to Capt. Abu Kanan al-Homsi. Its militants had received training and equipment from Turkey.

According to opposition sources, the main objective of the First Corps would be to fight ISIS, Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), and Kurdish militias (YPG, YPJ, PKK). The group will be stationed in the towns of Al-Rai, Akhtarin and Ghandoura in the northern Aleppo countryside.

In Idlib, the HTS issued a ban on the transfer of anti-tank missiles, Grad rockets and modern weapons and started an effort aimed to confiscate them from all local groups. HTS already arrested some members of Ana’ al-Sham and confiscated their weapons in the northern Hama countryside.

According to local sources, tensions have once again increased in the countryside of Idlib between Ahrar al-Sham and HTS. A new round of clashes in the province of Idlib may start soon."  southfront

********

"On Friday, Iba’a – the media wing of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) – published a series of images showing Al-Qaeda fighters undergoing training by Chechen commanders in Idlib, considered jihadist heartland.

Using experience gathered in the 1990s against the Russian Army, the Chechen warlords trained the mostly Syrian HTS insurgents in assault operations."  AMN

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The Idlib cyst continues to solidify and fester.   It will grow in menace until the mass is lanced.   Turkey continues to support and supply the AQ jihadis in the province.  Anyone who thinks that the FSA First Corps will not fight the Syrian Government in Idlib is mistaken,  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/pictures-al-qaeda-shock-troops-graduate-idlib-following-chechen-training/?utm_medium=ppc&utm_source=push&utm_campaign=push+notifications&utm_content=English

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-may-12-2017-pro-turkish-militants-form-coalition-to-fight-terrorists/

HARPER: HAS WARREN BROKEN RANKS TO PUSH GLASS STEAGALL?

Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Massachusetts Democrat super-star who engaged in a noisy name-calling war with then-Presidential candidate Donald Trump on behalf of Hillary Clinton, is now sending public signals that she is willing to work with the President on a signature legislative initiative that they both publicly support:  The reinstating of the 1933 Glass Steagall Act to break up the too-big-to-fail Wall Street banks.  During the 2016 presidential campaign, both the Republican and Democratic Party platforms called for restoring Glass Steagall, and there are now bipartisan bills in both Houses of Congress to reinstate it.  Warren, along with John McCain, Maria Cantwell and Angus King, initiated the Senate bill, and Marcy Kaptur and Walter Jones reintroduced the bill into the House (where it now has 47 co-sponsors).  During his own presidential campaign, Donald Trump called for the reinstatement of Glass Steagall during a high-profile campaign appearance in Charlotte, North Carolina just weeks before the election.  Hillary Clinton opposed the restoring of Glass Steagall. In 1999, then-President Bill Clinton had signed legislation repealing Glass Steagall.  

After the 2008 financial blowout, two Congressionally-mandated commissions concluded that the repeal of Glass Steagall had contributed to the financial bubble that burst beginning in 2007, leading to the biggest Wall Street bailout in history.

In recent days, newspaper headlines have been touting the possibility of a cross-party alliance between Warren and Trump to restore Glass Steagall.  On May 10, Senator Warren gave an exclusive interview to Bloomberg News, in which she openly stated her willingness to work with the President on legislation to break up the banks.  "We're certainly reaching out to the administration.  So far, we've had some good conversations and that's what I want to see happen.  I'm ready.  Because, you know, this is one of those basic things--folks on Wall Street may resist it.  But most of the American people get it."

Two days later, the Los Angeles Times published an extensive article under the headline "Something Trump and Elizabeth Warren agree on: Bringing back Glass-Steagall to break up big banks."  The article cited a broad range of politicians boosting Glass Steagall, from Warren and McCain to Trump economic adviser Gary Cohn, to Congressional fire-brands Bernie Sanders and Barbara Lee. 

There are big hurdles to overcome before Glass Steagall becomes law again.  Jeb Hensarling, the Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, has his own legislation to create further protections against a repeat of 2008 or worse, but his bill does not explicitly move to break up the TBTF banks, which have become 40 percent bigger, as the result of Federal Reserve and Treasury-engineered mergers at the height of the 2008 blowout.

But the idea that Elizabeth "Pocahontas" Warren and Donald Trump could work together on such a big undertaking is in and of itself significant.  During the first 100 days of the Trump presidency, the level of partisanship has gone off the charts, creating the appearance that nothing of a bipartisan character stands a chance of moving forward.  Glass Steagall could break the mold and hold open the possibility of other areas of bipartisan cooperation, at a moment when there are an abundance of issues that ought to be of common concern.  

The big question is:  Will Trump act on the basis of his recently repeated sentiments in favor of Glass Steagall?  If the President of the United States presses the Majority Leaders in Congress to bring the bill to a debate and vote, it stands a far better chance of happening.  That, ultimately, is the test of whether the recent back and forth between Senator Warren and President Trump will have any real impact.  

 

Trump Changes Gear: Strategic Syria policy now lies with Tillerson and Lavrov by Alastair Crooke, 12 May 2017

 

No, we are not referring to James Comey’s dismissal (though this too, does reflect a change of mode).  Perhaps we should have paid closer attention to Roger Stone, a long-time friend of the President, and his erstwhile campaign manager, who insists, and insists trenchantly, that Trump is his ‘own man’.  Those who think Trump can be manipulated are mistaken, Stone says. They misread the terrain, and subsequently will find that they are mistaken. No, by ‘change of gear’, we refer rather, to the Astana-Syria talks. 

In all the dust kicked up in Washington over Comey, Astana has passed largely unnoticed.  But there (Astana), the ‘gear change’ is substantive and merits close attention. In gist, Trump is willing to let Astana unfold, and to see whether it may lead to a strategic change in the Syrian situation.  Two things emerge from this: Firstly, Russia and Iran are being tested by Trump.  Ideological prejudices are being suspended for the moment, and both countries will be judged by their actions.  (I think both states will stand content with this situation).

The second shift of mode, concerns certain (but not all) of Trump’s military advisers. The latter have been quite prominent in the formulation of US foreign policy until now.  No more (at least in Syria). There can be no doubt — strategic Syria policy now lies with Rex Tillerson and Sergei Lavrov, who have been mandated to follow up the Astana de-escalation process. And in the recent talks in Astana, unlike before, the US had a senior diplomat attend and observe the talks – an Assistant Secretary of State.  In brief, the baton has passed from the Generals Mattis and McMaster, from the sphere of military intervention primarily, to the primacy of negotiations. To make this clear, Trump said explicitly in the wake of the Tomahawk attack: “We’re not going in to Syria” — implying that the strike was a one-off action.

Two caveats need to be made: Firstly, that Syrian-led military action (against ISIS and al-Qaida) will not cease, and the ceasefire eventually will likely breakdown. And, secondly, the British, French - and parts of the US military – will not give up their tactical inserting of wrenches – as they see it – into Assad’s wheels.  These actors, together with Turkey will continue to play both ends of the game.

What precipitated this change? Well, as so often with Trump, it seems it was personal contact and chemistry that changed events. Former Indian diplomat, now political commentator, MK Badrakhumar puts it succinctly:

“The cracking of the ice on the frozen Russian-American lake can only mean a temperature change. The telephone conversation between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on Tuesday can be compared to ice cracking after an unusually cold and long winter. The readouts from the White House and the Kremlin both give a positive spin to the phone call.

The Democratic game plan is evident.

I suppose you can argue that it is not all the adherents of the Democratic Party who are intent on removing President Trump and presumably Vice President Pence as well from office but it surely is a large group of them in the Washington/New York /Atlanta Borg establishment.  If you watch as much TV news as I do, and read a few national newspapers, it becomes evident that there is a "game plan."

1. It is not going to be possible to remove President Trump from office by declaring him unfit for office under the 25th Amendment to the constitution.  That would require a majority of the cabinet and his vice president signing an affidavit to the effect that he is incapacitated.  The chance of that happening is somewhere on the probability scale between .05% and 1%.
2. The next best possibility from the POV of the "resistance," (with HC and the mookies in the lead?) is impeachment and trial in the senate.  The Republicans control both houses of Congress.  The first step in the fall of Trump must be to obtain a majority in the House of Representatives.  To that end a public level of disapproval of Trump must achieve levels not approached so far even in Borg friendly polls (Gallup, etc.).  Therefore, what has to be done is to  convincingly tar and feather Trump in the public mind with images of; Russian spy and agent of influence, corrupt businessman, misogynist, crypto-racist reactionary.
3. Essential to this course of action is the campaign for Congressional investigations, an independent prosecutor or a commission to investigate and "expose" Trump's treason and malfeasance in office.
4. Once this is accomplished the Republican weaklings in the senate could perhaps be intimidated into conviction.

Can this work?  Certainly.  pl

Is the dissolution of the Union what you want?

 

Lots of you folks on the right have written to me to say that the appointment of a Democrat to be FBI director is out of the question.  Do you really mean that?  IMO we are a stage of potential dissolution of the Union that resembles 1859.  To say that a Democrat could not and would not preside over an FBI investigation that would reveal the truth is an admission of the disappearance of the level of comity needed to hold the country together.  I question your judgement about this.  1- Nothing has thus far been "leaked" that demonstrates ANY collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia or Russians.  The Democrats are outraged because Lavrov and Putin laugh at the innuendo and agitprop in the media?  Well, why would they not?  There is no proof of any kind thus far.  Even Senator Feinstein admits that.  2-  The FBI is a large organization.  Many in the Bureau and in DoJ will know what the investigation reveals.  Do you really imagine that all those people would help conceal a result in the investigation that exonerates Trump?

Eleven state legislatures have voted for a new constitutional convention.  Thirty four are required, twenty-three more.  Amendments  produced by such a convention would normally require approval by the US Congress and the state legislatures, but, IMO, there would be no way on earth to confine the outcome of such a convention to these requirements any more than there was in the instance of the first constitutional convention in the Eighteenth Century.  In that instance the convention was called to make amendments to the Articles of Confederation, but the convention simply seized control of the process and created a wholly new form of government.

Is that what you want?  If feelings continue to run in the direction they now take on the left and right you may well have your wishes fulfilled.  pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_to_propose_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution

Why Deir Ezzor and why now? - TTG

When Russia’s call for de-escalation zones first came out, my first thought, like many, was that Putin was throwing in the towel. Then I thought of several other possibilities.

1. It appeared to be a continuation of Russia’s attempt to separate the irreconcilable jihadists from the Syrian opposition. I doubt much of this opposition remains, but there must be some given that some are still coming over to the government side now and then. They are certainly not militarily significant. In any case, RT said this moderate opposition would then be directed against the jihadists “with the support of the guarantor countries.”

2. Russia’s plan for de-escalation zones was an aggressive forecheck of the longstanding US-Saudi plan for safe areas. Pulling Turkey into this alternate plan by making it one of the guarantor countries would greatly weaken the US-Saudi plan and stall its implementation.  

3. The plan’s aim could be part of the larger effort to neutralize Turkish support of the jihadists and pull Turkey further into the Russian sphere.    

4. As long as Russia is unwilling to deploy significant ground forces to decisively finish the job militarily, this de-escalation zone plan seemed to be the next best move. If Russia and Syria manage to call the shots by including Turkey as a guarantor country, this could go a long way in isolating the jihadists and focusing the fight against them. 

In the last few days it has become clear that the de-escalation zone plan is the first stage of a major strategic shift in the conduct of the war in Syria. This is an economy of force move in the western part of Syria executed to concentrate R+6 forces for a push to the west as explicitly stated by Russian General Rudskoy a few days ago. 

————————————

“After the signing of the memorandum on the creation of zones of de-escalation in Syria, the main efforts of the Russian Air Force will be directed to the development of an offensive to the east of Palmyra and the subsequent release of Deir ez-Zor, said Colonel-General Sergei Rudskoy, chief of the Main Operations Directorate of the RF Armed Forces General Staff.

"The establishment of zones of de-escalation will allow government troops to liberate a significant number of troops." The Russian Air Force will continue to support the Syrian armed forces to destroy the bandit formations of the international terrorist organization DAISH (the Arab name of the terrorist organization IGIL, banned in Russia), "Rudskoy said.

Another task of the VKS, according to Rudskoy, will be the liberation of the northeastern territories in the province of Aleppo along the Euphrates River.”  (РОССИЙСКАЯ ГАЗЕТА)

————————————

Al Masdar News reported that Russian support will also include ground forces.  “According to the military source, the Russian special forces will be embedded with the Syrian Arab Army’s 5th Legion and Tiger Forces for the entire duration of the offensive.” We don’t know if this will entail embedded advisors or Spetsnaz units performing their traditional reconnaissance-sabotage roles for the larger SAA formations. Perhaps it will be both.

Other Russian support consists of a “new counter-partisan special detachment from the countries of the former USSR” called TURAN. According to “Русская весна,” a detachment of up to 400 men of this 800 to 1200 strong TURAN unit are prepared to immediately support an SAA offensive from rural Aleppo towards Deir Ezzor.

The SAA forces massing for this offensive include the Tiger Forces and the 5th Corps. I’m sure there are others. Hezbollah forces are also returning to the Palmyra front. Al Masdar News says that “Suheil Al-Hassan, commander-in-chief of the Tiger Forces, will reportedly command two simultaneous offensive in eastern Aleppo and eastern Palmyra against the Islamic State.” The idea of two main thrusts caused me a little concern before I saw this more as an envelopment to either cut off the IS jihadists in the vast open area east of Homs or force them to withdraw towards the Euphrates. Efforts within the Deir Ezzor pocket to expand the area under government control are intensifying with some success. The SAA, surely with Russian air support, are preparing a force of several hundred seasoned Republican Guards to reinforce the pocket by airmobile insertion. This is a bold plan, but in my opinion a plan with a good chance of working.

The operation to liberate Deir Ezzor will be named Operation Lavender. Why? An observer named Wael Al Hussaini explained on twitter. "Back in 2012 when Deir Ezzor was about to fall a famous Republican Guards commander "Ali Khuzam" was among the first to arrive to defend the city along with General Issam Zahreddine. Unfortunately, General Ali unfortunately was killed defending the city. The general's last name in Arabic is خزام which means Lavender, so this operation will be a tribute to him and to the other heroes who fell there defending Syria."

The objective of this offensive goes beyond the relief of Deir Ezzor.  It is a drive to the Iraqi border. The R+6 obviously sees the coalition effort to take the east of the country from both Rojava and Jordan as a greater threat than the jihadis in Idlib. I don't know what Putin has working with Turkey, but I guess he thinks he can handle the sultan. I also think Putin and Assad are confident they can eventually work something out with the Rojava Kurds. But the US-Saudi (and Israeli) plan for safe areas and cutting the Shia crescent, as Elijah Magnier writes, is something that must be addressed now. Iraq sees this as well. The Iraqi Army and the PMU just launched an offensive to take the countryside west of Haditha. This is part of an Iraqi effort to eventually take the border crossing at Al-Qa’im.

In retrospect, I think the decision not to continue an offensive towards Idlib after the liberation of Aleppo and to advance east to cut off the Turks and their jihadis at al-Bab was a result of this view that foreign incursions into Syrian territory are viewed as a greater immediate threat to Assad and Putin that the Idlib jihadis.

TTG

The Comey firing

 

"President Trump fired FBI Director James B. Comey on Tuesday, at the recommendation of senior Justice Department officials who said he had treated Hillary Clinton unfairly and in doing so damaged the credibility of the FBI and the Justice Department.

The startling development comes as Comey was leading a counterintelligence investigation to determine whether associates of Trump may have coordinated with Russia to interfere with the U.S. presidential election last year. It wasn’t immediately clear how Comey’s ouster will affect the Russia probe, but Democrats said they were concerned that his ouster could derail the investigation."  washpost

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For the record I think this was a very foolish thing to do while the FBI is in he midst of several investigations that involve President Trump's equities.  pl         

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/comey-misstated-key-clinton-email-evidence-at-hearing-say-people-close-to-investigation/2017/05/09/074c1c7e-34bd-11e7-b373-418f6849a004_story.html?utm_term=.923e05f85dbc

If I were advising Trump ...

"Executive Order 13526 was issued on December 29, 2009 by United States President Barack Obama.^[1] It is the latest in a series of executive orders from US Presidents outlining how classified information should be handled. It revokes and replaces the previous Executive Orders in effect for this, which were EO 12958 (text) and EO 13292 (text)."  wiki

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Listen up, pilgrims!  The system of classifying most US government information originates in an Executive Order, not in federal law. 

If you watched the senate hearing yesterday presided over by Lindsay Graham it quickly became evident that he was to some extent channeling Roy Cohn in the long ago Army-McCarthy hearings (1954).  I was a boy then but, freaky kid that I was, I was glued to our tiny black and white TV set to watch.  "Have you no sense of decency left? " Lawyer Welch asked Senator Joe McCarthy.   I had the feeling yesterday watching Senators Feinstein and Whitehouse try to torture responses into new meanings that this was a "star chamber" proceeding in the fullest meaning of the term.  A clear example was Feinstein's attempt to twist the former AG's statement that Flynn "could have been compromised" into "Flynn compromised the national security of the US."  It seems evident to me that a certain element in the Democratic Party is intent on portraying both Flynn and Trump as traitorous agents of Russis.  

Well, pilgrims, life is not just a bowl of cherries and fire should be fought with fire.  The president is the ultimate declassification authority.  As noted above, the classification and security clearance structure and procedures are created thought Executive Orders (with the exception of atomic energy information).  In other words, with that exception, the president can declassify anything that is presently classified.

It is not a crime to talk to Russian officials. Flynn talked to the Russian ambassador on circuits that were commercial and unencrypted telephones.  Presumably they spoke in English.  The whole world knows that these conversations took place.  The New York Times revealed this to the world after someone in the government told them.  The whole world knows that all capable governments eavesdrop on foreign government officials.  This is a secret without effective secrecy.  Was the information collected by a cooperating foreign service?  Well, that is just too bad!  The political situation in the US is so toxic that exceptional disclosures by the US government are justified. 

IMO, the president should declassify the transcripts of the intercepted Flynn/Russian ambassador conversations and the present DNI should release them himself at a presser with release of hard copies of the documents to the press.

If Flynn was guilty of something more than chatting with this Russian diplomat or any others, the transcripts will show that.  pl

ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13526

Flynn and his Clearances

Driving the dog to the vet today and listening to what passes for journalism on MSNBC I heard the woman anchor (blond news babe) insist that Mike Flynn's continued possession of a high level of clearance for access to US classified information was merely a formality and a courtesy.  Well, pilgrims, that ain't so.

Vetting a person for a high level job is one thing...

• That involves a special investigation into the person's finances, associations, writings, possible criminal activity, political loyalties, etc.  The FBI, the IRS, word of mouth, are all possibilities to be involved in this.  The judgements involved about the person are essentially political.
  

On the other hand ...

• The process of granting clearance for access to classified information is quite different.  Normally an agency that wishes to employ a person whether military or civilian who will need access to US classified information will request that such a person be investigated by counter-intelligence  agencies.  Depending on the level of access to be granted an investigation of varying scope is done.  This investigation results in an adjudication of whether or not to grant the clearance.  That decision is made by mysterious creatures in the counter-intelligence agencies called adjudicators and the decision is made on the basis of soundness of character and demonstrated reliability from a security point of view,  The politics of the subject person in this process is irrelevant.  Once granted the security clearance resides IN THE INDIVIDUAL and is to some extent portable between agencies.  In the course of his official life Flynn would have had clearances granted seriatim from the US Army, DIA, The Office  of the Director of National Intelligence (where he was Clapper's Deputy for a while) and then after he was retired from the US Army from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) in a program that maintains security clearances in a special register for cleared contractors.  That register is referred to by any group that wants to give temporary employment to Defense Department contractors.

So, the answer to the WH statement concerning the renewal of Flynn's clearance last year is quite simple.  The chance that the Obama WH was aware of the renewal of Flynn's security clearances is really quite small.   On the other hand it was altogether the responsibility of the Trump transition team to vett Flynn thoroughly before appointing him National Security Adviser.  On another hand, statements made this afternoon on CNN by various people that the renewal of Flynn's clearances in 2016 was a meaningless formality given by DIA to a retired officer (who had been fired from the job) are just inane and these statements display a total lack of understanding of how the clearance process actually works.  pl 

Macron wins the French presidency with 65 % of the vote.

The voting rate was approximately 75%.  The cities appear to have turned out the vote very heavily.  Le Pen received just under 35% of the vote which for a party and candidate that wants to withdraw from the EU, severely limit immigration and deport those suspected of terrorism is a rather healthy showing.  Le Pen just said on French TV that she received 11 million votes.

Macron is going to be a very conventional politician/president.  He doesn't look like a very strong figure and France faces severe problems.  Le Pen quipped during the campaign that France would have a woman president no matter who won because the actual president would either be she or Angela Merkel.  pl

IMO the "de-escalation zones" are a clever trick. Thank God.

 

IMO Putin and Lavrov are even more clever than I had thought.  The Astana process proposal for "de-escalation zones" in Syria has something for everyone:

1.  The SAG will receive yet more advice and assistance from Russia.  As evidence of this R+6 forces are assembling in the eastern Homs Province area for a massive drive to liberate Deir al-Zor.  The Tiger Forces and 5th Corps of the SAA seem to be poised to spearhead this drive.  This effort, evidently to be conducted with full Russian air and advisory support is not indicative of Russia having "thrown in the towel" and washed its hands of the fate of the present Syrian government.

2.  At the same time a glance at the placement of the proposed "de-escalation zones" shows that these are all jihadi dominated areas under the protection and support of foreign sponsors; Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey, the smaller Gulfies and probably still the US.  The supposed creation of these jihadi Bantustans will please the sponsors but it should not.

3.  Why?  The very AQ descended or connected jihadi military forces in these areas are excluded from the terms and protection of "the deal."  This means that after the Deir al-Zor operation is ended the R+6 will be free to turn their attention to destroying terrorist jihadi forces in these enclaves.

4.  IMO Putin wants to improve relations with the US.  Trump will probably believe that this ploy is a genuine expression of good will rather than a clever maneuver.  Look to see a follow on set of proposals for something like a UN supervised referendum in the Crimea on annexation and a proposal for a US/Russian mixed military commission to determine the actual state of affairs in the Donbas and eastern Ukraine generally.  pl 

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-may-5-2017-de-escalation-zones-and-advance-on-deir-ezzor/ 

Shame on You, James Comey by Publius Tacitus

I was once a fan of James Comey. I thought he was a man of honor and principle. He is not. He has proven himself to be nothing more than another political hack. I confess that I do not fully understand his motive or objective. I do not know what game he is playing. I can only judge his actions. 

Let's review the facts:

Comey went public last July with a litany of allegations regarding Hillary Clinton's decision to use a personal server to send classified emails to herself and her staff. Here are the conclusions that Comey offered up regarding Hillary: 

Falcon 9 and NROL-76

SpaceX launched its first-ever mission for the U.S. Department of Defense today (May 1), and a set of videos and photos document the historic flight in spectacular detail. 

SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida at 7:15 a.m. EDT (1115 GMT) today with the U.S. National Reconnaissance Office's NROL-76 satellite aboard. 

 

Less than 3 minutes into flight, the booster's two stages separated. While the second stage continued carrying NROL-76 toward its classified destination in low-Earth orbit, the first stage performed engine burns to prep for a touchdown at SpaceX's "Landing Zone 1," a facility at the Cape.   Space.com

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This is great stuff.  Falcon 9's first stage booster came home safely once again.  Space X, IMO, goes from strength to strength.  The re-usable booster is a pre-requisite to commercial space enterprise.  The reduction in costs is large.  Commercial business in space has to be a real business with a real balance sheet if it is to be viable.  Even for the US government the reduction in cost in putting this recon satellite in orbit must be large.  pl

 

http://www.space.com/36676-spacex-spy-satellite-amazing-launch-landing-views.html

Concentration and Economy of Force in War

 

"Never bring all our forces into play haphazardly and at one time, thereby losing all means of directing the battle; but fatigue the opponent, if possible, with few forces and conserve a decisive mass for the critical moment. Once this decisive mass has been thrown in, it must be used with the greatest audacity."  Clausewitz

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Many of you will be bored.  You think yourselves too grand to bother with the underlying philosophy of the soldier's trade.  Your eyes will glaze over and you will not read the linked essay encapsulating Clausewitz' meditations on war.  IMO he was the greatest of all philosophers of war.  He was far greater than people like Boyd and his "OODA Loop,"  far greater than the recent hackneyed apostles of the failed COIN cult.

 

The present situation in Syria is tolling the doom of the present Syrian secular state and the possibility of the existence of other such governments in the ME.  Sisi in Egypt is reviled in the leftist R2P media, but, in fact, he saved Egypt from jihadi rule IN SPITE OF the efforts of the snowflakes in the Borgist dominated US government.

 

Syria has committed the ultimate error.  It has spread its inadequate forces all over the map seeking all at once to realize Assad's desire to liberate all of Syria's territory more or less at once.

 

The R+6 is fighting at:

 

1. Around Daraa in he SW where he jihadis have the active support of Israel, which as usual,  sees its enemies in a light clouded by hatred for all Arabs.

2. In Suweida east of the Daraa corridor.

3. On the Syrian/Lebanese mountain border.

4. In northern Hama Province.

5.  In Palmyra's desert countryside.

6. At Deir al-Zor where the "battling bastards of Deir al-Zor" deserve every real soldier's admiration.

7.  In eastern Aleppo Province south of the US led Tabqa effort.

8.  West of Aleppo City where inadequate SAA forces try expand their perimeter against the resurgent forces of AQ jihadis who have been allowed to re-consolidate their positions after defeat in Aleppo City.

9.  Anywhere else?

 

You can't fight like this and win.  Absent significant Russian and Iranian reinforcements, in the end the Syrians, Hizbullah and Iranians will be gradually worn down and defeated nationwide.  And what then?  "What then" will be another jihadi emirate and a life of oppression for the Syrian minorities.  This seems to be acceptable to the Israeli/R2P satellite state called the US a satellite which was once a proud country. A country for which my ancestors literally fought since the 17th Century.

 

What should be done?  Syria should call for international volunteers, to be trained and organized in Syria.  At the same time, concentration of forces should be adopted as national strategy.  pl

 

 

 https://www.clausewitz.com/mobile/principlesofwar.htm

 

POTUS does not understand the limits of his power.

Donald Trump  is frustrated in his inability to move legislation.  He said in a recent interview that the form and function of the US Constitution are "archaic" and should be restructured so that it would be "modern."  He also says that he would like to change the libel laws, evidently for the purpose of controlling dissent.  So far as I know there are no federal libel laws.  They are all state laws.  The federal constitution protects freedom of speech but the law, so far as I know, does not offer the opportunity to sue for defamation in the federal Article Three courts.  Does DT not understand that he does not control the state courts or legislatures?  He is frustrated with his inability to move legislation in the US Congress?  By analogy, if he were still in business, the response by a CEO type to a business plan for the company that obstructed his planning would be to seek to change the business plan at a stockholders meeting.  Well, pilgrims, the US Constitution is not a business plan and the US Congress is not a stockholders' meeting.   The US Constitution contains provisions for its own modification through amendment or a constitutional convention.  Neither of these processes is anything like a stockholders' meeting.  In fact the constitution was designed to make its modification difficult, and not easy at all.  An amendment required 2/3 approval in BOTH houses and 2/3 ratification by the state governments.  This was necessary in framing because a number of the original states would not have ratified the document without that approach.  Yes, that means that the Union is an agreement among the states.

The extent to which DT understands the US government system is, IMO, doubtful.  He appears to this lay observer of humans to have a number of learning disabilities; a form of Asperger's syndrome perhaps, ADHD, and dyslexia are among the possibilities.  The comedian Hassan Minhaj told the press at the White House Correspondents; Dinner on Saturday that their responsibility is greater now than it has been in previous administrations because this president does not read briefing papers, cannot endure protracted oral briefings and has little knowledge of world affairs in his mental "library."  It seems to be the case that he gets his information from 24/7  TV news .   That is really unfortunate since most 24/7 news is merely a mouthpiece for someone's information operations whether left or right.

At the same time he has watched a lot of movies  What a combination of influences!  pl