The White House Report - TTG

“We have confidence in our assessment because we have signals intelligence and geospatial intelligence, laboratory analysis of physiological samples collected from multiple victims, as well as a significant body of credible open source reporting, that tells a clear and consistent story. We cannot publicly release all available intelligence on this attack due to the need to protect sources and methods, but the following includes an unclassified summary of the U.S. Intelligence Community's analysis of this attack.”

Oh, that’s slick… and a real crock. This report gives the impression that the White House has more classified evidence that can’t be exposed to protect sources and methods. That’s a reasonable impression. The IC report on the Russian attack on the 2016 election process made the same claim and suffered widespread skepticism by doing so. This is as it should be. Given the primacy of information operations and the all consuming desire to control the narrative, it’s difficult to take anybody, especially a government, at their word. If we are serious about protecting intelligence sources and methods, we must accept this conundrum as a way of life. I only accept the premise of the IC Russia report because of my ten plus years of experience with the subject matter, not because the IC said so in a report lacking any convincing evidence. But I recognize this White House report on the Syrian chemical attack of 4 April as a steaming pile of manure for precisely the same reason.

While the IC Russia report stated its classified evidence simply would not be exposed, the White House Syria report states what it used for evidence… mostly jihadi produced social media evidence. That’s fortunate because we can examine all this open source information with a critical eye. It is  curious that this is a White House report and not an IC report. Is the IC on board? I doubt it. Phil Giraldi said “that military and IC personnel intimately familiar with the available intelligence say that the narrative that Assad or Russia did it is a sham, instead endorsing the Russian narrative that Assad’s forces had bombed a storage facility.” There are few people I take at their word. Phil Giraldi is one of them. 

Of the sources cited by the White House report, only signals intelligence can be considered classified evidence. The bulk of its evidence is available for all to examine. Many have done so. I suggest we look at these and, if so inclined, do some digging ourselves.

The only new claim made by the White House report is that Syrian personnel formerly associated with SAA chemical weapons were present at Shayarat Airfield. Perhaps former SAA and SAAF chemical troops were at the airfield. These troops have undoubtedly been redeployed to other jobs throughout the Syrian forces after the Syrian chemical weapons and stores were destroyed. Was this the signals intelligence? Not too impressive. Recordings of the Syrian pilots over Khan Shaykhun would be a far more convincing piece of signals intelligence, but such evidence is not alluded to in the report.  

Geospatial intelligence is the fancy word for overhead photography and Google Maps/Google Earth. The lab analysis of blood, tissue and urine samples was provided by Turkey, the long time supporter of IS and the jihadis in Idlib. I consider that to be part of the jihadi information operation. Soil samples and debris from the suspected gas shell, which would provide much more definitive evidence, are mysteriously not available. 

Almost all other evidence is from local accounts, photos and videos provided by the Al Qaeda White Helmets and other jihadi sources. The report claims this local evidence can’t be faked. That’s a joke. A cursory review of videos and photos show unprotected “rescue workers” handling contaminated bodies with impunity, a dead child with a number on her forehead opening her eyes, an elderly man sitting on the ground having his keffiyah pulled off his head by what appears to be a film director. These are just little things that struck me. I was also struck by the many accounts of  a chlorine smell from the odorless sarin gas.

The White House report claims the rationale for a Syrian Air Force chemical attack is that Assad’s forces were in a dire military situation north of Homs. By the time of the Khan Shaykhun attack, the SAA already recaptured most of the territory lost to the jihadi Homs offensive and the Homs airport was no longer threatened. Any air attack on Khan Shaykhun, chemical or conventional, would have no military effect on the Homs front. This rationale attributed to the Syrian government by the White House is absolutely bogus. The White house report would be more believable if it claimed the gas attack was the result of a series of mistakes and miscalculations by Syrian personnel. 

The White House goes to great lengths to disparage the Russian explanation of a Syrian attack on a jihadi munitions manufacturing/storage facility. Much of this disparagement consists of dismissing the Russians as devious tricksters. Yes, the Russians are damned good at information warfare and active measures. I admire their skills and abilities at this craft. It is precisely because of this Russian expertise that I find the idea of a deliberate chemical attack perpetrated by their close ally to be ludicrous. What would be the devious objective of this attack? Surely these master tricksters would have a plan for this and would have implemented it by now. 

Perhaps the Russians will reveal some intelligence on the jihadi munitions storage/manufacturing facility at Khan Shaykhun. Maybe someone could do some geospatial intelligence analysis of this facility. I would find both, or either one, quite satisfying.

TTG

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/04/11/world/middleeast/document-Syria-Chemical-Weapons-Report-White-House.html

https://www.libertarianinstitute.org/scotthortonshow/4617-philip-giraldi-says-ic-military-doubt-assad-gas-narrative/

http://tass.com/world/939417

Comments

[Marko]

Whether or not the Hatla account is verified , we know the U.S. and coalition forces have bombed suspected CW facilities in the past , most notoriously the Sudan pharmaceutical plant in Bill's " wag-the-dog " moment. There was also a huge 50-strike bombing run on an ISIS CW facility in Mosul and strikes on Mosul University facilities believed to be engaged in CW-related activities.

So , using America as the Gold Standard of allowable wartime activities , Syria is off the hook for any unfortunate fallout from their attack on the suspected CW warehouse. What remains is to determine the perpetrator of the single anomalous event - the pothole-sized road crater with the remains of a small delivery canister/cylinder - which seems the likely candidate for the sarin component of the attack.

I believe sarin was used. I believe this was a well-planned false-flag event , intended to focus global outrage squarely at Assad , and without the sarin , this attack is just run-of-the-mill , for the reasons described just above.

[Marko]

It wouldn't be at all surprising , nor cause for suspicion , that the military would consult with CW experts before bombing a suspected CW facility. This , to me , seems obvious.

That's why we'll never hear the details of those conversations.

[Augustin L]

H.R. McMaster's pushing hard for 10000 boots on the ground in Syria. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-13/trump-said-no-to-troops-in-syria-his-aides-aren-t-so-sure

[Valissa]

Kooshy, I have seen interviews of Trump going back to the 80's and he has basically had the same criticisms of US policies since then. His thoughts on solutions to the problems he perceived have also been consistent since the '80s.

Therefore I don't think he was lying. I think he very much believed what he said when he campaigned and believed he could accomplish those goals. All presidents run on particular campaign issues and then have to deal with the realities and constraints of the job and pre-existing power structures and trends. Most campaign promises are not kept regardless of party. You may recall the various pundits making fun of Trump or castigating him for attempting to keep his campaign promises.

[AK]

Smoke,

"More disingenuous excuses for confrontation. Must the struggle for control of the public narrative take precedence over any concern for facts or understanding?"

I believe the answer to that question is a resounding, "YES". We have not had a fact-based foreign policy for at least a generation.

[Peter AU]

Side by side images of old man in scarf from seperate white helmet productions.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C88uA3hXYAEgWkW.jpg

Perhaps another ID'd here. The man with the twins, who seemed to change his clothes from one shot to the next at the cemetery.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9PI8hEXkAAlJ9y.jpg

[Peter AU]

The father burying twins scene. Several shots or stills of him holding the twins at the cemetery (headstones behind him) before they are buried, then shots of him being led away in grief after the burial, but in different clothes?
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/849918879061200896

[Mikey]

Not an expert on this subject, but wouldn't soil samples taken at the 120mm casing also indicate whether this was the method of delivery of the unknown poison gas? The sarin indicators should be elevated in the area near the casing. Of course the crime scene has not been secured so the possibility of tampering also exists.

[kooshy]

Valissa, Thank you for your comment, I also know and did business for many years with another Donald with much the same mentality, ego, hubris and maybe as rich, that’s Sterling, previous owner of LA Clippers. Men like him, will do anything and pay any price for their ego, survival and specially to win no matter what. As I wrote, IMO Mr. Trump was given an offer by Borg he understood he could not refuse, he thinks he can survive his job, reversing himself and folding to Borg’ demands. IMO, Borg operates much like mafia (like losing credit with Banks), they will never trust him again, for what he said and did to their choice candidate, they are probably right, knowing he has no loyalty to anyone except himself.

[TonyL]

I don't think Trump believes in anything. He is a conman. He said whatever to get himself elected. Now he is doing whatever to keep him in office and earn the accolades from the Borgs. The presidency is just a mean to satisfy his ego, and enrich his brand.

[charly]

It is not the sarin itself that is interesting but the byproducts. It shows how the sarin was produced and its age.

[Valissa]

Tony, consider the possibility that it's not an either/or situation. Everyone believes in something, so your 1st sentence is merely whining because you don't like him. Human beings are complex and generally inconsistent in the application of their beliefs. Anyone who runs for president has to have a huge ego and "flexibility" in their political beliefs given the ambition that drives them, and their desire for a legacy.

If you expect something different you are naïve.

[Chris Chuba]

WarrenPeese, "a senior US official" is the source for CNN regarding the SIGINT, not Mattis or Tillerson. Maybe Mattis / Tillerson have 'no doubt' because of the video with the White Helmets spraying water on the survivors. Why people look at the same thing and come to different conclusions, is someone lying?

Our government has lied about SIGINT before. Ronald Reagan, who I trust more than DT on his best day, had the intercepted radio communication between the Russian Jet that shot down KAL-007 and the air traffic controller edited down to make it look like it was intentional when it was clearly a mistake. The pilot tried to warn what he thought was a spy plane to land but Reagan played the bad version before the U.N. to make them look like monsters. Sounds familiar.
https://consortiumnews.com/2016/09/30/russia-baiting-and-risks-of-nuclear-war/

We do not have the transcript of what is in the SIGINT, I'd love to see it.

[Yeah, Right]

Note that if you look at the latest article by Publius Tacitus you will see a photo of some dude collecting samples from that crater ("Figure 1").

So we know that environmental samples were taken, yet there is no mention by the White House that such samples exist and are being tested.

[TonyL]

Valissa,

I did not vote for either Clinton or Trump in the last election. IMO, you are still hoping Mr Trump will turn out to be the type of leader you wanted him to be. But if you have read enough about his business dealings and his conduct as a person, you would have come come to the same conclusion as I did.

[Walrus]

i say again, a coalition of the willing is going into syria. the "warning orders to expect warning orders" went out last week.

[Marko]

"We believe it is highly likely that the attack was carried out by the Assad regime," British Prime Minister Theresa May said in a televised statement. "Apart from anything else, we believe it's only the regime that has the capability to make such an attack."

Not counting , of course , the Trump regime , the Netanyahu regime , the Erdogan regime , the May regime , the Hollande regime , the Al Saud regime , the.....

[confusedponderer]

In my rehabilitation hospital where I spent half of last year they had swimming baths.

Water for such things needs to be clean kept, and for that chlorine is used a lot. Sometimes when they used it there was the smell of chlorine in the air. The scent is unforgetable. Reminded me of my army time and the stuff I learned there about C stuff.

In the Reha, there was a storage room in the cellar where they held the substance, and at its door they had a gas mask holder for a mask that provided filter and full eye protection (chlorine would vitriolize eyes, harming eye sight - blind you wouldn't find your way to flee).

It always felt creepy when going along that door and I always was happy to get out of that cellar.

That written, from what I read, stuff like chlorine was apparently used by ISIS and/or Al Quaeda folks repeatedly in Iraq (emphasis mine).

"Iraqi officials have shown the BBC footage, which they say proves Islamic State militants are using chlorine gas in roadside bomb attacks.
...
The bombs contain small concentrations of a chemical agent and in open ground are unlikely to be lethal.

Experts say they are designed to create fear rather than harm.

There have been multiple reports that IS has been deploying chlorine gas since late last year, but Iraqi officials say their footage confirms its use.

Haider Taher, from the Iraq Bomb Disposal Team, said troops have defused dozens of devices containing chlorine as part of the offensive against the militants.

"They have resorted to this new method," he told the BBC..."

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-31847427

That much for the view that any use of gas clearly implicates the guilt of Assad.

[Nancy K]

He lied throughout the campaign, why did you think he would stop once elected. He is not a man rooted in solid ground, he seems to have few deep and abiding principles. He is a hollow man.

[turcopolier]

nanacyK

IMO as a layman he has a number of "learning disabilities" and is over-compensated for them. Some kind of autism, Asperger's syndrome, dyslexia? pl

[turcopolier]

Warren Peese

I don't think Trump is anything like an intellectual. He has no fixed opinions, only attitudes. IMO every day is a new day for him and he reacts to the current situation.

[turcopolier]

Warren Peese

There was an ongoing risk analysis of the likelihood of the present of lethal chemicals on the target. The same thing was going on on the US side. pl

[Eric Newhill]

Sir,
MY SWMBO agrees with you. She used to work with children who have "speech production issues", as it is called professionally, and she sees it clearly. Sometimes such people have intellects that intake things from a different,interesting and correct, perspective than most others. Sometimes they don't.

[kooshy]

Nancy, I only voted for Mr. Trump for only one reason regardless of who he was and what he said, that was to defeat Clintons. I had mentioned this many time, for that and the only choice I had i am not sorry.

[Valissa]

I have said this numerous times at this blog... I did not vote for Trump. These days I vote 3rd party for president. I voted for Gary Johnson.