Russian ground forces in Syria? - TTG

As Colonel Lang mentioned, there are rumors that Russia would “respond favorably to an expected SAG request for Russian ground troops.”  This is just a guess, but I think the Russians are concerned by the uptick in the US-led coalition efforts to destroy the Assad government and Syria. I'm convinced that the US and the Saudis are hell bent on creating their safe areas for anti-Assad forces both in SDF controlled areas and along the southern border with Jordan. Looks like Trump's first foreign visit will be with his Saudi friends. He’ll probably be discussing one of the few foreign policy points that our agonizingly inconsistent President has been consistent on -  safe areas in Syria in conjunction with the Saudis.

Elijah J. Magnier laid out his interpretation of this growing coalition strategy in his recent article, “America is trying to block the path of the “Shiite crescent” from Syria and is preparing the ground for a “new Middle East”.”

I think we let the Turks bomb the Kurds to further drive them into a dependence on increased US presence in "greater Rojava." I think Russia should do all it can to weaken the YPG/SDF dependence on U.S. support. If the Russians shot down a Turkish plane or two over Rojava, that could cause this US gambit to back fire. 

I also get the feeling there is nothing we would like more than for the IS jihadis to overrun Deir ez-Zor. That would leave the path open for a jihadi safe area extending from the entire Euphrates valley to the Iraqi border. The only thing standing in our way is that bull of a Druze General and his boys holding Deir ez-Zor. The offensive to relieve that pocket is damned important. In light of the developing coalition effort to carve out a safe area, I now think the relief and/or reinforcement of the Deir ez-Zor pocket is at least as important to the survival of Syria as the the reduction of the jihadis in Idlib.

Israel is getting more blatant about their support for anti-Assad jihadis. It's probably all part of the coalition plan. And I doubt we and the Turks have given up on that jihadi-filled festering sore around Idlib. As many of us know, the R+6 does not have the forces in place to address all these threats at once. The Russians need to tip the balance soon.

In addition to these real and looming threats to the SAG, perhaps old Vladimir Vladimirovich has also decided it is time to send his own message to the West. Our Mudak-in-Chief sent his garbled message of 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles. Maybe it’s time for Vlad to send his own clear and unmistakable message. Something like the deployment of the 106th Guards Airborne Division and the 45th Spetsnaz Brigade along with a substantial Russian Aerospace Force support package to rapidly and decisively address some of the R+6’s most pressing military challenges. 

TTG

Comments

[Marko]

" I also get the feeling there is nothing we would like more than for the IS jihadis to overrun Deir ez-Zor. "

I think so too. There are reports that a U.S. drone observed ISIS "bureaucrats and administrators" travelling from Raqqa to Deir ez-Zor , with the drone's job being to guarantee safe passage , I suspect.

The rest of ISIS will follow ,no doubt, as soon as we can line up enough air-conditioned buses to transport them all.

[Peter in Toronto]

If only the Syrians could organize a few more units like those of Suheil Hassan and his Tigers, they wouldn't have to rely on the unreliable NDF tribal militias and imported fighters.

Linked below is a collection of some of the latest footage to emerge out of the south Idlib salient, showing a truly devastating application of firepower and maneuver against the combined Jihadist forces concentrated there:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3617&v=zG68xrKy1II

Over an hour long but well worth the watch; scores of tanks and heavy weapons abandoned, corpses strewn everywhere and footage of the Jihadists being driven into open fields and picked off. A hasty route, it seems.

Not only have the Tigers and supporting auxiliaries reversed ALL of the Jihadist gains in recent weeks in Hama province, but they have pressed the offensive past lines defined back in 2015. Heavy RuAF pounding of the towns of Lataminah and Morek seems to indicate the target for the advance. If this keeps up they may even be able to seize the now infamous Khan Sheikhoun, scene of that alleged chemical attack.

Too much progress however and we may see the White Helmets prepare another carefully rehearsed and packaged "chemical attack" package, delivered to the treacherous Western media to feed their regime change narrative.

[Yeah, Right]

Are you suggesting that a Russian airborne division be dropped into Deir Ezzor?

If so then do Russians have the capability to do that in one hop, or do they first have to deploy the troops to Tartus and then hop from there to the besieged city?

[The Twisted Genius]

Yeah, Right,

Deir ez-Zor may not be the proper initial objective. If it was chosen, I would use staging airfields at Qamishli, Aleppo and T4 near Palmyra. A ground thrust from Palmyra with at least a regimental battle group, maybe two, would be better than putting the whole division directly into and around Deir ez-Zor. I think that would be a more efficient use of airframes. Remember the Russians airlifted a sizable slice of the SAA 104th Airborne Brigade into Deir ez-Zor with Il-76 and Mi-17 from Qamishli in January. Some of the 45th Spetsnaz would probably deploy directly from their Russian bases on their equivalent of our special operations squadron airframes. Air landing would be preferable to air dropping, but a combination of both would probably be operationally advantageous. I doubt the entire 106th Airborne Division could be airlifted from Tula to drop into Syria with all their armored vehicles in one lift. Their armor, APCs and self-propelled artillery and mortars are significant. Even if it could be done, I don’t think it would be the wisest way to deploy the division.

[b]

From Washington's perspective a large deployment of Russian troops would be perfect situation to give them another Afghanistan.

But Russia can counter that in Afghanistan itself which the U.S. also alleges but which is not yet true. Just wait for the ATGMs ... (Mattis telling Russia that it is against international law to arm insurgents is outright stupid. Doesn't he know that the world has a better memory than U.S. TV hosts?)

I had hoped for an Egyptian infantry division allied with Russia and the U.S. to take the southern Syrian border area up to Deir Ezzor and Iraq. It would be a perfect use of those Mistrals ...

[Yeah, Right]

Many thanks.

I assume there is little the USA could do to stop this. Short of an irrational response.

[Leonardo]

I don't know... it seems to me that sending so many ground troops in Syria would be a big risk for the Russians. Tens, if not hundreds, of soldiers would start coming home in body bags.
I'm not sure the Russian public opinion will support such a decision for long, even if at all.

[turcopolier]

b

I followed the Russian war in Afghanistan in great detail as one of the Washington end of the planning and support team for Mujahideen support (less the Sayyaf Group). IMO a Russian direct participation on the ground would not be like Afghanistan where the population was largely united in its hostility to the Russians and the small communist Afghan element in the population. In Syria, most people; Sunni, Shia, Alawi, Christian, Druze are backing the Syrian Government against the jihadis ans would look on the Russian reinforcements as welcome allies. pl

[Fred]

TTG,

"Looks like Trump's first foreign visit will be with his Saudi friends."

God help us. What has Saudi Arabia ever done for the US? For that matter what have they done for Trump?

[The Beaver]

It looks like 20 YPG fighters were killed during the Turkish airstrikes,18 fighters injured, 3 in a critical situation according to a Kurdish activist.

According to the Turkish FM , the coalition was warned about the air strikes:
https://www.rt.com/news/386194-turkey-notified-us-strikes/

[plantman]

Mattis has been traipsing around the Middle east rallying the allies in Riyadh, Cairo and Amman (no trip to Ankara?)which suggests that something might be "in the making".

Deir Ezzor?

Probably. But it's pretty risky for Putin.

Think of the politics. Putin needs to seem like a reasonable fellow to gain support in the EU so his pipeline deals go through. He needs allies and alliances, not leaders accusing him of war mongering.

How will the deployment of Spetsnaz look in the headlines??

It's a tricky situation for Putin, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Russian troops on the ground within two weeks. Mattis and McMaster seem to be working very fast.

[Matt]

Maybe a stupid question but here it goes.....

If a "safe zone" for jihadi's is created, wouldn't that make it easier to kill them?

[L'Akratique]

Seems he wants to build a hotel in Jeddah.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-saudi-arabia-911-business-deals-a7038991.html

[Phil A]

Petrodollars, of course!

[Alaric]

So where are the Iranians? I expect they will also increase boots on the ground to counter this latest neocon thrust.

[Marko]

It might be hard to tell when Russian troops are deployed to Syria , if this story is any indication :

"Three Russians dressed as Syrian soldiers arrested by Lebanese Army"
Al-Masdar News - 25/04/2017

BEIRUT, LEBANON (7:20 P.M.) – Three Russians dressed in Syrian military fatigues were allegedly arrested by the Lebanese Army while trying to cross over from Syria, the Daily Star claimed this evening.
The Lebanese Army has not issued a communique to corroborate this claim by the Daily Star.
If these men are in fact Russian military personnel, this would be the first time that any foreign troops authorized by the Syrian government have crossed into Lebanese territory.

[turcopolier]

TTG et al

IMO the size force you contemplate would be a good down payment. The 106th Guards Airborne Division has two infantry regiments with their vehicles and a Spetsnaz brigade is inherently a light force. Two MRDs (mechanized divisions) plus the airborne force are what is needed. pl

[Morongobill]

While we have 3 carrier groups steaming toward North Korea and a possible war there, now just might be the perfect time for the introduction of Russian ground troops directly into the fighting in Syria.

[Babak Makkinejad]

TTG:

I think this statement is inaccurate:

"America is trying to block the path of the “Shiite crescent” from Syria and is preparing the ground for a “new Middle East."

It would be accurate if the word "is" is replaced by "was".

I think the strategic game in Syria is over and Fortress West and her local allies are acting on the margins.

For this reason, I also do not think that the Russian Federation will introduce the level of troops that you are suggesting into Syria.

By the way, I think it ironic that the clarity that Condoleezza Rice was talking about has finally been realized:

We are facing, with clarity, the face-off between the Party of Ali and the Khwarej in the Levant and the Persian Gulf.

I fail to see what strategic gains have befallen the Turks, the Gulfies, the Pakistanis and the Afghans - they all have significant "Party of Ali" minority populations and an emotionally charged religious confrontation only serves to erode their cohesion as functioning states and countries.

[Lurker]

The prophet Daniel predicts an end time king(dom) that claims exceptional and supreme status among the king(dom)s of the earth (the word usage here is adamah not eretz). Forgetting the God of gods, the God of his fathers, he will instead be dedicated to serve the god of forces (militarism?) and warmongering (Mars? Pentagram?). He will not even respect the desired of women ( apostacy from Christ?). He will magnify himself, blaspheme and do as he wishes for a time. He will even prosper excedingly until meeting his ultimate destruction. He will overturn (regime change?) almost all of the kingdoms of the glorious land (Middle East?) (here the word usage is eretz) and North Africa (using ISIS, false flags and deception?) including Lybia, Egypt, Ethiopia but will spare Moab, Edom and Amman (Jordan?). Towards the end times he will be troubled by bad news from the (far) East (North Korea?) and from the North (Russia?). He will be furious and try more destruction (59 tomahawk salvo in Syria and Moab bomb in Afghanistan?). But the king of the North (Russia?) will come at him like a whirlwind with chariots, horsemen and ships and the king of the South ("South" China Sea?) will come at him with a pincer movement. He will then plant his tabernacle in the midst of the Seas (a powerful armada?). Read Daniel 11:36-45 & Ezek 28:2&8 to know what is in store for him

[Eric Newhill]

Matt,
We can be stupid together as I was pondering the same thing. Get them all in one area with the promise of safety, cordon it and then light up the entire zone with everything we have (+ Russia, et al). Why not?

[Fred]

Phil,

Right. How many of those do you get in NYC real estate?

[Fred]

L'Akratique

".. could be related to a possible hotel ..."

Could be is such a nice phrase, especially in a year old article in the British press.

[confusedponderer]

Marko,
"this would be the first time that any foreign troops authorized by the Syrian government have crossed into Lebanese territory"

I'd be sceptic on this. Just because they say so doesn't make it a fact or truthful. It could be just another narrative. Folks who follow a policy of 'Hezbollah and Assad must go' may just make something like that up.

Thinking of that, the Saudis, beyond for example supporting ISIS, iirc have a couple friends in Lebanon. They would have the means/money to make something like that up, and they'd apparently have a motive.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/iraq-crisis-how-saudi-arabia-helped-isis-take-over-the-north-of-the-country-9602312.html

[ISL]

for those who need to look these things up but are too busy (as I should be):

MI-17 is a transport helicopter (to 36 persons, 2 tons internal, 2 tons external) that can be outfitted with weapons.

http://www.russianhelicopters.aero/en/helicopters/military/mi-817.html

Ilyushin Il-76 is a heavy transport airplane (140 troops) - 40 tons at 5000 km, and includes EW protection. It can take off from unpaved, short runways.

http://www.military-today.com/aircraft/ilyushin_il76_candid.htm