McMaster and Russia by Willy B

 

    I'm one of those folks, probably just one among many, here, who was a great admirer of H.R. McMaster. I've been following his public career since about 2006 and had always been impressed with his intellectual power and his blunt rejection of the Revolution In Military Affairs--concepts "that lead to the idea that you have perfect knowledge and can apply military power perfectly.'' I have been forced, over the past few days, however, to come to the conclusion that McMaster is a big part of the problem in the mad rush to war on Syria that erupted, last week, war that could lead to a direct military confrontation with Russia. His appearance on Fox News Sunday was an indication of that but there were indications of this potential well beforehand, while he was still at US Army Training and Doctrine Command.  His pre-occupation for the past two years, before he went to the White House, was, after all, how to reshape the Army for future war against Russia. There were two public discussions he was involved in April-May of 2016, the first in Chicago on April 12, at the Pritzker Military Museum and Library, and the second one at CSIS in Washington, DC on May 4, 2016, in which he laid out his view that Russia is little more than an aggressive power that uses, among other things, criminal gangs to further its offensive intentions against American power.  (I'm going to focus, here, on McMaster's public remarks. There's been a great deal of reporting on the machinations and feuds going on inside the National Security Council, but I will leave comment on that to those with better insight into such things).
 
    In the Pritzker discussion, McMaster was asked about deterrence by denial, what would this look like in Eastern Europe. In response, he said that there are three aspects to deterrence by denial. The first is the right kind of capabilities "that could counter Russian aggression, right, and those are our capabilities, I think, like what we're seeing as landbased long-range precision fires capabilities, a tiered air defense capability, an answer to their long-range massed fires, for example, that they've employed in Ukraine. I think it's a significant enough conventional deterrent so that you can also address really what Russia has been advertising as this doctrine of escalation domination where they boast about going to the use of tactical nuclear weapons. So certainly there's a nuclear qualitative deterrent to that capability." the second aspect is quantity. "I mean you have to be--you have to have forces in sufficient scale to demonstrate your ability to deny the enemy those objectives.," he said. Thirdly is "the will of the alliance [NATO]," keeping it strong and united. On this, he was full of praise for ex-NATO commander Gen. Philip Breedlove for doing "a tremendous, tremendous job." It will be recalled that Breedlove, for his anti-Russia war propaganda, was getting much of his "intelligence" from Philip Karber, the head of the Potomac Institute, which McMaster praised as a good open source on the Russia New Generation Warfare Study that McMaster was heading up at TraDoc at the time.

    In the CSIS event, McMaster described the "invasion" of Ukraine and the "annexation" of Crimea has having "punctuated" the end of the post-Cold War period, but that thase were not new developments "in terms of Russian aggression." He pointed to the Georgia war in 2008 and the cyber atttacks on the Baltic states as earlier indicators.  Despite these earlier signs, Mcmaster lamented that the US response was to continue draw down forces in Europe. "And what we're seeing now is we've awakened to, obviously, this threat from Russia, who is waging limited war for limited objectives – annexing Crimea, invading Ukraine – at zero cost, consolidating gains over that territory, and portraying the reaction by us and allies and partners as escalatory, that what is required to deter a strong nation that is waging limited war for limited objectives on battlegrounds involving weaker states – or what Thomas – Mackinder called at the end of the 18th, early 19th century the shatter zones on the Eurasian landmass – what is required is forward deterrence, to be able to ratchet up the cost at the frontier, and to take an approach to deterrence that is consistent with deterrence by denial, convincing your enemy that your enemy is unable to accomplish his objectives at a reasonable cost rather than sort of an offshore balancing approach and the threat of punitive action at long distance later, which we know obviously from – recent experience confirms that that is inadequate," he said.

    "Of course, this is a sophisticated strategy, what Russia is employing – and we're doing a study of this now with a number of partners – that combines, really, conventional forces as cover for unconventional action, but a much more sophisticated campaign involving the use of criminality and organized crime, and really operating effectively on this battleground of perception and information, and in particular part of a broader effort to sow doubt and conspiracy theories across our alliance," McMaster went on. "And this effort, I believe, is aimed really not at defensive objectives, but at offensive objectives – to collapse the post-World War II, certainly the post-Cold War, security, economic, and political order in Europe, and replace that order with something that is more sympathetic to Russian interests."

    McMaster presents all of this as if it's happening in a vacuum, as if the actions of the Anglo-American-led West had nothing to do with anything, particularly in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. McMaster, the PhD historian, should know much better than that.  The collapse of the post-World War II system could be happening for reasons that have nothing to do with Russia. Perhaps, like the Soviet Union in the 1980's, it's collapsing for reasons of its own internal contradictions, but this possibility is not even admitted into the discussion.  McMaster knows that the U.S. invaded Iraq on the basis of lies, but dismisses any discussion of that to focus on decisions, both good and bad, that were made afterwards. Yet the events that followed were totally shaped by that decision to invade. So, McMaster appears to have abandoned the intellectual rigor that characterized his book on the Vietnam War and much of his work afterwards. At first glance, it appears that he is instead drawing his outlook from the neo-cons, particularly about the alleged threat to American power, but I have to do much more work to develop this before I can say anything definitively.

 

http://www.foxnews.com/transcript/2017/04/09/exclusive-general-h-r-mcmaster-on-decision-to-strike-syria.html

https://www.pritzkermilitary.org/whats_on/pritzker-military-presents/lt-general-hr-mcmaster-harbingers-future-war/

https://www.csis.org/events/harbingers-future-war-implications-army-lieutenant-general-hr-mcmaster

 

Comments

[A. Jones]

Long time reader, first time commenter on this outstanding blog.

I had the occasion to hear McMaster speak publicly about a year ago or so at Newport, RI (NWC). To me, he came across as a very high energy salesman. If I recall correctly, much of his speech involved the need to add more and more resources and questioned as to why Americans might be tired of war. He essentially said that he himself wasn’t tired of it. This was also in front of an audience that was comprised not only of American military officers, but also of foreign officers from many different countries (and not just US allies either).

Reading his bio, I note that he had tactical success early in his career. I wonder if there is a deeper problem here at the general officer/flag officer level: Officers who are very good at the tactical level, decent at the operational level, but not competent at the strategic level. I recognize that there are obviously other massive political factors at play as well.

My two cents…

[b]

McMaster is a proteges of Petraeus. It is likely that Petraeus talks with Trump got him the job. Petreaus was in discussion as NSA but drew out when he learned that McMaster was probably in. (Better to stay in the shadows behind the man)

[turcopolier]

b

Petraeus is a convicted criminal. He is still serving probationary time. pl

[Alaric]

I doubt just one person is to blame for the 180 shift of trump's policies. Enormous pressure is being placed on trump on all fronts and he has idiotically surrounded himself with neocons. Trump is probably doing what he does best, saving himself.

On the other hand, I thought the guy at "Veterans Today" was sorta wacky. He kept claiming trump was Netanyahu's poodle. Perhaps he was correct and trump just fooled us. Perhaps I and others were naive.

[eakens]

If McMaster and co. keep this up, I'm betting Tillerson might tender his resignation.

[Stumpy]

[...]to collapse the post-World War II, certainly the post-Cold War, security, economic, and political order in Europe, and replace that order with something that is more sympathetic to Russian interests.

He's, in other words, afraid Russia will take credit for the West collapsing just as the West took credit for the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Criminal behavior with conventional force as cover. Has he not heard of the CIA?

[A. Jones]

PL, assuming this website is screened by you, would you be able to remove the first part of my comment above? I can be contacted separately via my email address. Thank you.

[Bill Herschel]

Trump is looking around for someone to make him look good. He can't do it himself, because he has absolutely no personal resources except adjectives. He is Mr. Adjective, and the American public eats it up. Recall that GWB was fond of adjectives.

When AHCA caved, he was desperate. He looked really bad, and needed someone to make him look good. I expect him on the deck of an aircraft carrier soon. The important thing is that he doesn't have any beliefs... except looking good.

No President has ever had hair like this guy, and no President has been as desperate to look good.

Does he think about consequences? No. Does the U.S. stand a chance against Russia? No. World War III will be fought out by irreconcilable political groups in the U.S. It's already happening. Think Freedom Caucus.

[robt willmann]

This Syria and Russia affair is starting to get surreal.

Secretary of Defense James Mattis and U.S. Central Command Gen. Joseph Votel gave a press conference today. Mattis says that he personally reviewed the intelligence about Syria and that there is "no doubt that the Syrian regime is responsible for the decision to attack and for the attack itself".--

https://www.c-span.org/video/?426871-1/secretary-mattis-says-doubt-syria-behind-chemical-attacks

Well, then, if there is "no doubt" that there was a toxic gas attack and that Syria is responsible for it, the U.S. government should release all of the "intelligence" and evidence (if there is any), and scientific analysis, and exactly how the evidence was gathered and its chain of custody and its authenticity. Then we can check it and see if there is indeed, "no doubt".

Vladimir Putin makes a statement at the G7 meeting in Italy that he suspects there may be false flag attacks in Syria designed by the U.S. to try to lead to further military strikes--

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putin-says-preparing-bomb-10201886?service=responsive

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson speaks today after the G7 meeting and the language about Russia and Syria continues to be accusatory--

https://www.c-span.org/video/?426838-1/secretary-tillerson-says-russia-must-choose-us-assad

[John_Frank]

fyi - video of today's press briefing by the Defense Secretary and Centcom Commander https://www.dvidshub.net/video/518715/defense-secretary-and-centcom-commander-conduct-joint-briefing

Suggest people take the time to watch the entire briefing.

Irrespective of what anyone else in the Trump administration is saying either on or off, the Defense Secretary said among other things that the attack on April 4 was a Syrian operation. The US has no evidence that Russia or Iran were involved.

The Defense Secretary explained that with the continued usage of chemical weapons on the Syrian battlefield, culminating in an attack involving sarin gas on April 4, which the Syrians had said they had given up, the US felt compelled to act. With the missile attack the message was stop using chemical weapons and do not do it again.

The coalition military focus remains on destroying ISIS in Syria and then proceeding to stabilize the situation. The Pentagon clearly has no interest in getting further involved in the Syrian civil war, nor in forcibly removing Bashir al-Assad from power.

During the briefing it was made clear that the US military continues to have good contacts with the Russian military. Also, the Defense Secretary said that he did not see the situation with Russia spiraling out of control as it was not in their interest to do so.

I am paraphrasing what was said during the briefing. You are encouraged to watch the entire event for yourself.

Today's briefing should burst the balloon of those within and outside of the Trump administration seeking to push the US into a full fledged war in Syria, or a direct confrontation with Russia

Turning to the subject at hand, Fiona Hill was recently hired by the White House, presumably on the recommendation and at the request of General McMaster, as deputy assistant to the President and senior director for European and Russian Affairs.

Fiona Hill, Brookings scholar, to join National Security Council
https://www.brookings.edu/news-releases/fiona-hill-brookings-scholar-to-join-national-security-council/

Reading through her biography it is obvious that she has a rather dim view of Mr. Putin and his administration.

Brookings Institute is a major beneficiary of funding from the Emir of Qatar, who also supports the Muslim Brotherhood and a number of the more fanatical Sunni Salafist jihadist groups.

At the request of National Security Advisor General McMaster, Dina Powell changed roles on March 15 and is now serving as deputy national security adviser for strategy.

Prior to that she had been serving as the President's senior counselor for economic initiatives.

People can read her bio at this link http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/outlook/bios/dina_habib_powell_bio.pdf

The story is that Ms. Powell was initially recommended by Ivanka Trump and is connected to Hillary Clinton and the lobbying firm Teneo.

[Brunswick]

During the Campaign, Trump inferred that he wasn't "non-interventionist", that he was going to "take names" and "kick ass", with illusions of "taking the oil", and for things as trivial as the IRGC "dissing" the USN for rude gestures,

He just wasn't going to do the "R2P thing" or the "nation building" thing.

[BillWade]

The "sarin" part is awfully had to believe given the pics that were made available. I believe Ms Powell was Ivanka Trump's advisor during the election campaign.

[aleksandar]

Nobody having attended courses about Nuclear, Chimical and Bacteriological weapons would agree that it was sarin gas.
Sorry, it's just BS.

[Thomas101st]

You're joking right ? Princess Ivanka, the fashion queen, picked the "deputy national security advisor for strategy" ? My apologies to all those never-Trumpers out there.

[ex-PFC Chuck]

Willie, the comments by McMaster that you quote strongly suggest they were made by a person who had imbibed deeply of the neocon kool-ade and as you note is seemingly oblivious to Russian culture and history, both recent and going back centuries. About ten days ago the Russia-sympathetic blogger The Saker put up a post entitled “Searching for Russia” that did a good job of describing Putin’s relationship to and position in that history and I found it most informative and I recommend it highly.

http://www.unz.com/tsaker/searching-for-russia/

His post earlier today on the cruise missile strike and its portents for the future is also very worthwhile.

http://thesaker.is/a-multi-level-analysis-of-the-us-cruise-missile-attack-on-syria-and-its-consequences/

[John_Frank]

With respect that is not what I wrote.

The decision to hire Ms. Powell as deputy national security advisor for strategy was made by National Security Advisor General McMaster.

[BabelFish]

aleksander, it is Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Warfare school. I attended one and agree with your observation.

[plantman]

If the Trump administration wants Assad gone, then maybe they're considering a decapitation operation in Damascus.

Is that possible or is it too far-fetched?

[John_Frank]

Fyi, two open source reports that people may wish to read:

April 5 - Syria: Khan Sheikhoun Victims Show Symptoms Consistent with Exposure to Chemical Substances
http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/article/syria-khan-sheikhoun-victims-show-symptoms-consistent-exposure-chemical-substances

"A number of victims of the April 4 attack on the town of Khan Sheikhoun were brought to the hospital, located about 60 miles to the north, near the Turkish border. Eight people who were examined by MSF staff displayed symptoms consistent with exposure to an agent such as sarin gas or similar compounds, including constricted pupils, muscle spasms and involuntary defecation.

The MSF team provided drugs and antidotes to treat patients, and distributed protective clothing to medical staff in the hospital's emergency room.

MSF medical teams also visited other hospitals treating victims of the attack, and reported that they smelled of bleach, indicative of possible exposure to chlorine.

These reports strongly suggest that victims of the attack on Khan Sheikhoun were exposed to at least two different chemical agents."

The second is one published on April 6:

April 6 - Banned nerve agent sarin used in Syria chemical attack, Turkey says
The Turkish statement said the sarin conclusion had been based on autopsies on three victims.
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2017/04/06/autopsy-results-of-syrian-victims-show-chemical-weapons-were-used-in-attack-turkey.html

The autopsies were performed on three victims of the attack who were taken to Turkey. It is unclear from the article when the individuals had passed, whether at the scene of the attack, or later.

According to the published report:

"The Turkish statement said the sarin conclusion had been based on autopsies on three victims performed at Turkey’s Adana Forensic Medicine Institution with the participation of representatives from the World Health Organization and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, a group based in The Hague that monitors compliance with the global treaty that bans such munitions."

[CJA]

Putin is in Syria to block the Qatar/Saudi gas pipeline that we've been supporting for a number of years - thus the real reason for destabilizing Assad just like was done in Libya. If it went through and began supplying Europe, Putin would lose significant income from the gas he currently supplies to Europe. Per "The Prize" everything we do in that part of the world has been and is about oil (the petrodollar)and is working to plan (PNAC).

[walrus]

I am starting to think President Trump thinks like a property developer. They have no concept of developing. long term beneficial relationships with their customers. Their time horizon is the completion of the development and sale, then it s on to the next project. There is no concept of "long term ' strategy.

What is disturbing is that the will say and do anything to complete the deal but there is no follow through, reflection or re-engagement.

Putins strategy at the moment is designed to frustrate Trump the man - he won't meet him.

The stakes for Putin are high, if he folds, Russia becomes a vassal state like Europe, Britain, Australia, Japan, etc. That ultimately means the imposition of U.S. corporate culture and that U.S. corporations will "invade" Russia like they have done everywhere else

[Willybilly]

Anything is possible if the price is right.... Assad is very heavily involved in security and Intel matters, much more than is actually known.... the easiest way is an assassination attempt...

[optimax]

Even if Assad did it, which I doubt, where is the humanity in killing thousands or tens-of-thousands to take him out. And then you create a vacuum for the jihadis to fill and create havoc.

Trump said before taking office he would listen to the generals. Their solution to every problem is military. Have any of these gerals studied and absorbed humanities while in school? Has Trump ever read a book or taken courses in the humanities? We need people in charge with large world views you don't get by focusing solely on their career choices.

[Peter AU]

Decapitate government, military, and destroy some critical military infrastructure with missile attack. Dazed/confused military would be quickly overrun. Turk forces backing up moderate terrorists in north?
Perhaps a few Russians killed but Russian air and naval bases not targeted.
Quite thinkable after reading Rand Corporation's "Thinking The Unthinkable"

[BillWade]

this was printed on Jan 11th, I thought I heard her name bandied about during the campaign:

"POLITICO reported last week that Powell has been informally advising Ivanka Trump on personnel and other issues for weeks. She is expected to provide a connection between the Trump White House — eyed with skepticism by many in the GOP establishment — and corporate America and Wall Street."

Source is "Politico". I think she's a Clintonista.