Is Trump bluffing overseas?

Perhaps he is.  The number of his veiled or unveiled threats against foreign actors seems to multiply every day.

1.  The president said at his presser with the Italian that Iran has not lived up to the "spirit" of JCPOA.  What does that mean?  As I recall the agreement's finalization was immediately followed by cries from Congress that the Iranians should expect no lessening in hostility from the US.  Was that in the "spirit" of JCPOA?  This is ridiculous.  The bi-partisan warhawk nationalists in Washington want Iran on its knees begging for forgiveness,  The question asked should be - Or what?  US air strikes designed to fight a war that Israel wants but cannot accomplish?  A naval war in the Gulf?  Or what?

2.  The president has said that North Korea "should behave."  Or what?  Some military gesture to demonstrate US disapproval of their nuclear weapons/ballistic missile programs?  Or a full blown war to the death on the peninsula?  Really?  Does Trump or the evidently mad duo of Mattis/McMaster fully grasp the scale of the destruction and people losses that would ensue?  Some of the people of SST have suggested that maybe NOKO could actually be bargained with if we adopted a different attitude toward the little bastards.  Really?  What a thought!

3.  Tillerson went to Moscow to bring the Russians to heel on various matters and left with nothing to show for his trouble   NATO keeps moving assets into Eastern Europe to confront the Russian menace.  The prevailing idea in the Borgist foreign policy establishment in Washington and London seems to be that the US (with UK advice) must guide human events and any thought of national independence anywhere in the world must be stamped out.  Really?  How is that to be enforced?  With war? With yet more economic sanctions that drive Russia toward China?

4.  Mattis (without producing evidence) insists that Syria has retained some indeterminate number of tons of chemical weapon materials.  This is a transparent effort to justify further aggressive action against Syria.  At the same time AQ connected guerrillas, heavily armed with US TOW are attacking to re-capture the southern Syrian border city of Deraa from government forces.  these forces are heavily supplied with US material support from sources in Jordan just to the south of the city.    Will Mattis/McMaster justify direct US intervention there to create a "safe zone" in preparation for partition of the country or as a base for a drive on Damascus to unseat the government and install the jihadis?

All of this raises the question of why the Trump Administration is placing itself in position in which if we are defied we will have to fight a number of bloody wars simultaneously  Why?  pl

Comments

[John Minnerath]

The sound of beating war drums always raises the hair on the back of my neck.

[eakens]

Just the prospect of destroying the US economically will be enough for one or more of these "bad actors" to start either calling his bluff, or also getting into the false flag business to try to spark something in somebody else's backyard. The more we try to dominate, the more tempting it will be for somebody to decide it's worth taking that risk.

This is indeed madness, but of course, everybody has seen or experienced the fervor with which asset prices have shot up, and the sheer number of unqualified wealth that has been generated. There are far too many people walking around with millions of dollars in wealth for it to be sustainable. I used to think that a stock market crash or large correction would remedy this problem, but I'm at the point now where I think the reversion to the mean will only come out of a currency crisis and devaluation.

What he's doing certainly seems to be contributory towards that eventuality. Perhaps the thinking is our debt will be wiped away, but we'll still have the strongest military, and that can be the "great reset". Crazy thinking I suppose, but it's tough to make sense out of why we seem to be so engaged in sparking conflicts in every corner of the world, simultaneously.

[Generalfeldmarschall von Hindenburg]

The continuity in US foreign policy is remarkable. Trump is hewing to the PNAC line in every respect, despite having campaigned in favor of breaking with the neocons.

Kind of reminds me of Kennedy saying he was going to shatter the CIA into a million pieces. We all know who won that match.

[The Beaver]

Colonel

WRT #4: This comes from the Israelis: they say between 2-3 tons
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-defense-officials-assad-still-has-chemical-weapons/

We are see East Ghoutta again .

[FB Ali]

"All of this raises the question of why the Trump Administration is placing itself in position in which if we are defied we will have to fight a number of bloody wars simultaneously Why?"

I would suggest it is because:

(1) US policy-makers (aka the Borg) believe it ensures US domination of the world.

(2) They believe this suits their interests (which they believe coincide with those of the country).

(3) When the collective mind of a group is infected with such crazy ideas, it cannot view matters rationally.

[The Beaver]

Colonel,

FYI: https://twitter.com/SaudiEmbassyUSA/status/855384999968878593

and the paid Saudi agent David Ignatus was praising the idiotic son in WaPo today
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/a-young-prince-reimagines-saudi-arabia-can-he-make-his-vision-come-true/2017/04/20/663d79a4-2549-11e7-b503-9d616bd5a305_story.html?utm_term=.50ea516b093a

The Saudis are getting their butt kicked in Yemen and, after 2 yrs, they are hoping to get more involvement of the US. The same country which uses Patriot missile to bring down $150/200 Yemeni drones.

[Sam Peralta]

Col. Lang

Can't we say with certainty that the US policy elites and their supporting cast in the MSM and European capitals have become completely delusional and dysfunctional?

How long does Pax Americana continue and how does it end? Since the argument among the "exceptional" crowd is that everyone must kowtow to their dictums and every issue has a military solution, it would seem that military escalation will always take place if anyone challenges that. There is no way out as the argument is always "US credibility".

The Americans that voted Trump wanted America First. He campaigned on that. The Borg went hysterical when he won to their surprise and incessantly attacked him as the Manchurian Candidate. Now that he spouts the Borg line they all cheer him. The message is clear. The Borg rules. The first question is where is the world going under the rule of the Borg? How does this get resolved? And the second question is what do the America First Americans, which are basically the libertarians and alt-right, do next?

[BillWade]

I wonder what's going through the minds of the Korean-American community, especially the older ones who knew the hardships of war and it's aftermath?

[Fellow Traveler]

While the will for creative destruction may be somewhat gated domestically, he's free to do as he pleases overseas. That's where he'll "act out" for satisfaction and validation.

Since there are several Trump buildings in Seoul, I think they're ok. But a few burning Samsung factories might fit the "America First" bill.

[Oilman2]

It seems like a prerequisite for the presidency should be active duty at a battlefront - without that, the only images of what a battle even looks like are from Hollywood (you know, the land where car doors block 7.62 rounds?). Or maybe playing Call of Duty...

I am not seeing ANY evidence of a plan, save for political posturing and threats towards the same few countries. I don't believe, other than an initial strike, that this country and its military can sustain much of anything. We are in debt to our eyeballs, scattered across the globe and can only project with carriers, which are tremendously vulnerable with respect to Chinese and Russian options. The USAF and USN seem to be much more concerned with LGBTQ??? issues than with fighting. The drone option has rapidly made much of war appear like a video game, and computer sims have reinforced this along with complete media blackout of wounded and casualties. The realites of war have been removed from public consciousness.

When ever was war so clean and painless to so few men?

I do not see any overall plan - just posturing and chaos from the Pentagon, State Dept and alphabet agencies. If there is a plan, it is to do what the customers of the Milplex want - which does make for chaos.

[David E. Solomon]

Possibly because he is as mad as a hatter.

[Eric Newhill]

Sir,
I do think it's posturing (AKA bluffing). We know this is a bad thing for the reasons you note. However, I think that they believe they can control the message so thoroughly that, behind the scenes, they can back down, make whatever deals they need to, etc. and then get the media to send out whatever propaganda they need to cause the American people to not understand whatever is really happening.

So the message we get today is Trump as President Thor, talking loud and carrying a big hammer, sometimes hurling mighty thunderbolts. America is no longer weak! This appeals to many; even many in government.

Should one of the various threatened countries call the bluff, well, the media can be caused to massage the message to make it appear that the US put them in their place. Or Americans may not even be allowed to know of the transgression. The only instance in which this little scheme won't work is if actual war breaks out, say on the Korean Peninsula. However, it's a reasonably safe bet, in Trump's mind, that war won't break out unless it was going to anyhow. Or, in other words, that his posturing would actually impact the other countries' calculation of whether or not to start shooting.

So, it's all up-side for Trump. The key is control of the media and fooling the audience. Not that I approve of any of this, just guessing that it is how Trump's thinking is operating.

[Pangolin]

Recently reported in NYT: Trump received large $ for inauguration. $5 million Adelson, $1 million Kraft, $1 million Singer. Reportedly, Adelson spent $45 million on 2016 campaign.

[-bwg]

I don't think he has enough of a plan to be bluffing. He's just talking out his a**. Unfortunately, a lot of people may die because of his inability to control his mouth and his impulses.

[Ex-PFC Chuck]

GvH: "Kind of reminds me of Kennedy saying he was going to shatter the CIA into a million pieces. We all know who won that match"
That's probably got something to do regarding why Agent Orange caved.

[steve g]

So far all the markets are discounting this
belligerence IMO. However one incident
may set off many others. Follow the money.

[Old Microbiologist]

Would that were true. But the entire global economic infrastructure is completely dependent on the us still. However, our sanctions and overt actions against The BRICS have forced all to rapidly develop alternatives. They are still in the creation phase and full implementation could be as early as this summer. Once that happens then it is possible to topple the US economically and not cause a world wide collapse. The irony is we forced this to happen. The EU had best wake up soon and start negotiating with Russia and China to become members of that club. But, the EU is a vassal state and will not do that. However, some EU members might go it alone if the EU begins a breakup this year. A lot depends on the French election this Sunday. Personally, we have sold all of our equities and gone to cash as I expect a correction on a Monday if Marine wins. Yesterday's terrorist attack all but ensures her win.

[different clue]

Whatever Mattis and McMaster are doing and advocating is from geo-military true belief. Perhaps Trump thinks all this tuff-guy threat-making is all part of negotiating things in bussiness. Perhaps he learned it from his decades of being marinated in the New York/ New Jersey area Soprano bussiness culture.

If Bannon the Mastermind is involved in all this, his motivation would be different. One way to dismantle the "administrative state" is to defund it, and a way to defund it and keep it defunded would be to create several new Forever Wars at the same time to pre-empt all the money and keep it pre-empted for several decades into the future. That should be long enough to burn the "administrative state" out of existence. It is a new method of "starving the beast".

[William R. Cumming]

To have to ask is to have the answer IMO!

[Nancy K]

It seems many who loved candidate Trump are voicing concern about President Trump, and they no longer have Obama or Clinton to blame everything on.

[Apol]

Matti's as Ahab, perfect casting..

[old aukuu]

Fearing an invasion of Manchuria to crush the nascent communist revolution the Chinese foreign minister, Zhou En-Lai declared that China “will not supinely tolerate seeing their neighbors invaded by the imperialists.” MacArthur sneered at this warning. “… They have no airforce…if the Chinese tried to get down to Pyongyang there would be a great slaughter…we are the best.” He then ordered airstrikes to lay waste thousands of square miles of northern Korea bordering China and ordered infantry divisions ever closer to its border.

It was the terrible devastation of this bombing campaign, worse than anything seen during World War II short of Hiroshima and Nagasaki that to this day dominates North Korea’s relations with the United States and drives its determination never to submit to any American diktat.

General Curtis Lemay directed this onslaught. It was he who had firebombed Tokyo in March 1945 saying it was “about time we stopped swatting at flies and gone after the manure pile.” It was he who later said that the US “ought to bomb North Vietnam back into the stone age.” Remarking about his desire to lay waste to North Korea he said “We burned down every town in North Korea and South Korea too.” Lemay was by no means exaggerating.

Napalm was used extensively, completely and utterly destroying the northern capital of Pyongyang. By 1953 American pilots were returning to carriers and bases claiming there were no longer any significant targets in all of North Korea to bomb. In fact a very large percentage of the northern population was by then living in tunnels dug by hand underground. A British journalist wrote that the northern population was living “a troglodyte existence.”In the Spring of 1953 US warplanes hit five of the largest dams along the Yalu river completely inundating and killing Pyongyang’s harvest of rice. Air Force documents reveal calculated premeditation saying that “Attacks in May will be most effective psychologically because it was the end of the rice-transplanting season before the roots could become completely embedded.” Flash floods scooped out hundreds of square miles of vital food producing valleys and killed untold numbers of farmers.

At Nuremberg after WWII, Nazi officers who carried out similar attacks on the dikes of Holland, creating a mass famine in 1944, were tried as criminals and some were executed for their crimes.

[b]

There is a political theory of three power centers in the U.S.
- the corporate
- the executive (including the CIA and the political think tank establishment)
- the military (and its industry)

Clinton had the first two, Trump had the third and his own little group of America firsters.

Clinton had most of the Zionist on her side, Trump only the Adelson/Netanyahoo hardcore.

After Trump won the military demanded its price. Trump gave it lots of executive offices and demoted the "executive" site in the State Department the military hates so much. But the military disliked the America firsters. They would have, in the long run, cut down its budget. No more war, no need for big military budgets. The military used its power to diminish the America firster faction. Flynn was kicked out, Bannon demoted, Kushner reigned in by a Dunford talk in Iraq. Trump recognized the firster game is over and decided to move his position. He now lets the military run the show (and foreign policy).

The military is good at knocking things down but its larger strategic foresight is limited (said mildly). The only presser instrument it knows is the threat of force.

Will Trump be able to reign it in when it overshoots? I have my doubts on that. The military decided to wage real war on Syria, not this iffy never ending show the CIA so far performed (in the military view).

The U.S., Saudi, Jihadistani and Israeli team will be up against Syria, Russia, Hizbullah and Iran (with Chinese backup behind them) who have the home field advantage. If that clash becomes real it hardly be containable.

[Kooshy]

From what I hear from family and friends in Europe, president Trump has been amazingly, immensely helpful to "make America hated first" around the world and among our cultural core allies and friends in Europe. It sounds like make AMERICA first rhetoric is now ended, and "apprentice" first virtual reality has become supreme. America' Political enemies can't ask for any better or more. As a business man, specially a real estate developer I thought Mr. Trump would be a good change for this country of ours, that is, since I thought he must be a good and successful negotiator, so he will negotiate and resolve many of our domestic and foreign problems. Regrettably I think I was wrong, so far instead of negotiating, resolving and compromising any of our domestic or foreign issues, he and his administration on every level has just bullied everyone left and right and outside of this country.

[turcopolier]

b

Whose theory is that? Yours? All that crap about the MIC is just crap. pl