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07 April 2017

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The Beaver

Serge,

FWIW and FYI: we have been beating that cat for a long time here on SST.
No one believes Brown Moses aka Bellingcat who works for someone or an outfit within the beltway. Someone with a bookeeping diploma and no military or arms experience can't be an expert by sitting in his living room and studying You Tube videos.

Do a search of SST since 2011 and you will find what has been said about him.
He was running with the same BS in 2013 , even being an expert for HRW and a feeder of disinformation to Elizabeth O'Bagy from ISW ( and an adviser of Sen McCain)until she was caught pretending to be a Dr (PhD)

Kooshy

Colonel, with regard to US' policy on Russia and Syria, now, after I listened to this same news conference you referred to, my impression is that Borg has succeeded in reigning in (Boxing in) president Trump to continue existing posture. I believe general Matis,NSA, and EU are on board on continuation of Obama' ME policies.

Lars

Since CNN is not known for kissing his keister, I doubt Trump is watching them. He seems to prefer Faux News, or worse.

zk@zk.com

It certainly has grown, but so has the opposition.
In many aspects, Idlib is like an open wound and I believe if the government could've rectified the problem, they already would've.

turcopolier

zk

IMO that is completely wrong. The SAG made a serious mistake in going after the eastern territories rather than clearing Idlib after Aleppo fell to them. Do you have any military qualifications? pl

turcopolier

lars

He watches a variety of TV all day long; CNN, MSNBC and the various foxes. pl

turcopolier

kooshy

His talk at the presser sounded very wild and rash to me. I am worried. pl

turcopolier

Peter in Toronto

I do not value your opinion. You have no idea what you are talking about. pl

turcopolier

Serge

I have no idea what you are talking about. pl

doug

Trump has never had much interest in foreign policy. McCain was commenting to the press a week ago that he was in touch with the Mattis and McMaster nearly every day but the WH was pretty much absent.

Not good.

Harlan Easley

Yes sir, you were right. Now where does that leave us? For one, anybody with half a brain would have to ask themselves, Why would Assad use Gas right now when he is winning and in a much stronger position now than he was in 2013. The Russians are fully committed with forces unlike 2013 and didn't International observers observe the dismantling of Syria's chemical munitions?

He wouldn't, not even close. Why would he use chemical weapons to attack a small village? When the combined Air Forces of Russia and Syria are decimating the Wahhabi's? There is the answer in the question. It's common sense.

Does it matter? No! The powers that want war don't care about Truth. The ends justify the means. It almost worked with President Obama. But by a miracle he figured out he was being hoodwinked, and pulled the invasion at the last second, evidence by his interview in the Atlantic by Jeffrey Goldberg. In fact, paraphrasing he stated it was one of his better decisions referring to the Washington Playbook, euphemism for God knows what. Everything else he did in Syria was a disgrace and in a just world he would be judged accordingly. Well, we don't live in a just world as of today. We live on a Glorious Hellhole called Planet Earth.

Now President Trump. I voted Obama twice and for Trump this time. Don't know if that makes me a deplorable. I agree with Colonel Lang. I watched the presser with Abdullah and Trump and it sent chills down my spine. This second false flag attack may work. Trump the nationalist I love. Trump the guy who has to have everybody believe he is the toughest and most fair guy in the world I worry. He doesn't do nuance in my opinion. So the Salafist/Wahhabi curse nightmare trying to spread over Syria may have found their mark in President Trump. I say its highly likely they found their mark evidence by the presser. Interesting how it coincided with the arrival of the King of Jordan. Maybe just a coincidence, however, if President Trump escalates in Syria for regime change then I am no longer his man. My vote for him was driven by the fear of Hillary and WWIII in Syria which had too high of a probability for me.

Syria reminds me of the French Revolution. Many parallels. There seemed to be an organizing force behind the curtain that no matter what efforts there were toward a peaceful resolution by certain parties would produce almost an immediate reaction by a reactionary element that destroyed the effort. No matter what there was going to be blood, tears, and anarchy until the reactionary elements succeeded in total destruction of all their opponents whether King, Queen, or the Altar.

If Trump is hoodwinked by the neocons into escalating forward toward Regime change in Syria then I'm afraid he is going to release forces that he couldn't contemplate in a million years. It will be his doom and hopefully not all of ours.

Serge

Colonel,
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201704051052301312-syria-strikes-chemical-weapons-warehouse/
According to Konashenkov, on Tuesday "from 11.30 to 12.30, local time, [8.30 to 9.30 GMT] Syrian aircraft conducted an airstrike in the eastern outskirts of Khan Shaykhun on a large warehouse of ammunition of terrorists and the mass of military equipment".
Konashenkov said that from this warehouse, chemical weapons' ammunition was delivered to Iraq by militants.
same is said on RT but worded differently:
https://www.rt.com/news/383522-syria-idlib-warehouse-strike-chemical/
The warehouse was used to both produce and store shells containing toxic gas, Konashenkov said. The shells were delivered to Iraq and repeatedly used there, he added, pointing out that both Iraq and international organizations have confirmed the use of such weapons by militants.

Who else can they mean but IS in Iraq? Surely Russian MOD isn't saying that the rebels are supplying the Iraqi government with chemical weapons. This is a hamfisted attempt to connect the story with ISIS, and as everyone knows, ISIS is bad.

Serge

Beaver,
For a long time on SST I've seen commented how important it is to learn to evaluate information independent from the source. Aside from gratuitous use of the word "regime", I am hard pressed to find fault with the article as to its explanation for the technical improbability of a strike on a chemical depot causing the effects we have seen.

Thirdeye

Bellingcat makes a straw man argument, switching out "sarin" for "chemical weapons." The evident toxicity is not consistent with sarin, which is so toxic that it is considered a weapon of mass destruction. "Witnesses" claimed smelling a gas cloud. Sarin in its pure form is odorless; if they were smelling impurities in a sarin-based gas they would be in no condition to tell about it. Photographs of "sarin victims being rescued" show the first responders wearing minimal or no protective gear. If they were sarin victims the first responders would also be afflicted. My conclusion is that the sarin story is bogus and there was either a controlled or incidental release of a less powerful agent.

Thirdeye

Prospectus on the next couple of months in Idlib and Damascus attributed to the SAA:

https://twitter.com/Souria4Syrians/status/844594695019868160

Still a counterpunching strategy capitalizing on attrition in Jihadist attempts at offensives.

Matt

I didn't vote for Trump. I wanted Sanders. Trump's domestic agenda is despicable. Having said that, The Democrats have shown their capacity for self-deception (as Matt Taibbi has recently written in Rolling Stone) to know no bounds. They disgust me, and I consider myself to be to the left of these so-called "liberals". This latest alleged gas attack in Syria has appeared to resurrect the neocon dream of continuing the regime change wars that started after 9/11. The Democrats have undertaken a strategy of harming the Trump Administrations' reproachment with Russia by somehow painting his Administration as being a collection of Russian dupes. This is the Deep State, Military Industrial Complex, NeoCon warhawks and Liberal Interventionists at war with an Administration not willing to continue the madness however, watching Trump today at the Presser fall for the BS, I fear the NeoCons have rolled him.

turcopolier

Serge
I have supervised the targeting of a number of air campaigns. I do not find the probability of misadventure in striking a target like this without full knowledge of the contents of the target to be unlikely at all. We were always very careful in targeting places like tis not to throw a gas cloud into the air. Once again, what are your qualifications to make a judgment like this? pl

zk@zk.com

This conflict is being waged on many levels. Its military aspects, however horrific, are "just" the most obvious ones.
Many mistakes were made or else there would not have come to this chaos.
As for the military qualifications, mine are relatively modest.
However, there are certainly a great many high ranking officers in Syrian, Russian and Iranian camps, and regarding Idlib, at least for now, they have opted for the policy of containment.

turcopolier

Serge

I find your e-mail address "Karl Marx" to be informative. It is well documented that both the IS and AQ factions in western Syria manufacture toxic gases. they are not hard to make if you have a chemist and a low level of care for the safety of those making them. pl

turcopolier

ZK

If so, they are mistaken. The Idlib cancer will devour the Syrian state. pl

turcopolier

b

The strategy was mistaken. Ground must be occupied and the enemy's forces destroyed. pl

Priam's Crazy Daughter

I have no military experience at all. So, I base my opinions on nothing but my intuition, which of course is not infallible.

However, I remember coming home from a spring break in San Diego where I was flabbergasted by all the people just itching for a war with Saddam.

Then soon I was curled up in fetal position watching as they dropped the first bomb on Bahdad, knowing that it all just seemed to surreal and wrong.

Our going into this now will not help any of those beautiful little children like the ones in the video. Please let cooler heads prevail. Is it not time for McCain to develop dementia, or maybe he already has.

turcopolier

b et al

Some of the retired military people whom McMaster inherited on the NSC staff think that of the US intervenes against the Syrian government, Russia will back away from, us. I do not agree with this. pl

Serge

Colonel,

Please don't, it's my default junkmail address that I created in grade school. Not denying that they do, just pointing out how bizarre and out of place I found this Russian comment about sending chemical weapons to Iraq to be. whatever way you look at this situation, from either side's explanation, something does not add up. I'm sticking with my gut feeling that this was the act of some rogue party within the SAA. If this was an Al Qaeda false flag then the Russians would never have come out with this chemical depot story. If they did indeed bomb a depot causing the documented effects we have seen, then this would be an event with no precedent in terms of the casualties resulting from such a strike, and why the bizarre non sequitur about Iraq? My qualifications,none, except for a part-time obsession with the ME since the 2006 Leb war

VietnamVet

Colonel,

Yes. A lesson that has been forgotten in the last 70 years. But, difficult to achieve if the opposing side has nuclear weapons and a conscript army defending their homeland. If the Trump Administration accepts at face value that there was a sarin gas attack on rebels by the Syrian government then there is no chance for Peace in the Middle East or Détente with Russia.

This morning I awoke to what sounded like combat sorties. But, it was a crash of an F-16C several miles away. No lives lost and no civilian property damage. Lucky.

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