« "THE URGENT NEED FOR BORIS JOHNSON TO CLARIFY ... " by Habakkuk | Main | Grooming the Senate? For what or why? »

24 April 2017

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

divadab

"What surprises me is that English survived the Norman conquest"

The English are cousins to the Dutch and Frisians, the most stubborn people in the world. It took over 200 years of English being the language of the poor and powerless (French of the power structure), during which time it became much simplified, losing gender, most of its inflections, and adding French vocabulary. But the English stubbornly refused to lose their language and English ultimately survived, thrived, and prevailed mightily.

LeaNder

you might be interested in a recent development making the news on our national ground. Israel comparable to whatever states that do not like interference in their "national matters"? Or distrustful of NGO's secret intentions?

http://www.dw.com/en/netanyahu-will-cancel-meeting-with-german-foreign-minister-if-he-meets-with-ngos/a-38572091

I doubt he Gabriel will show "backbone" as we say in German.

turcopolier

divadab

Even more interesting to me is the quickness with which the Vikings who became Normans adopted all things French before they invaded England. pl

Patrick Bahzad

Pat,

Thx for this post and the crash course regarding the French electoral system. What I find most interesting is the comments: everyone seems to be projecting his/her own ideas on the subject.

Macron will win, no is no doubt in my mind (somewhere between 60-40% and 65-35%). However, the true test regarding his ability to steer the ship for the next five years will come in June when parliamentary elections are due. Macron may find it difficult to find a parliamentary majority to back up his Presidency.

Patrick Bahzad

JR,

whatever it is you're taking, you need either to slow down or take even more.

Nancy K

Sort of like our president.

Patrick Bahzad

TB,

I don't think he's looking for regime change, although he clearly stated there is no future for Assad as head of State in Syria. But he made it very clear that there are other priorities in the ME, main one being the fight against IS.

Nancy K

Why a mossad minder? Did she groom him since 5th grade? Sounds kind of fishy to me?

Nancy K

He didn't marry her at age 15. She was his teacher at that age.

Patrick Bahzad

Leander,

Yes France was governed by coalitions non stop until 1958, when de Gaulle finally put an end to this. Thank God, he did ! The world isn't Germany ...

Patrick Bahzad

Macron not very stable ? having bouts of overexcitement ? sounds like Trump if you're asking me ...

Patrick Bahzad

LG,

getting the women's votes and gathering the gay vote ? you forgot to throw some Mossad/CIA handlers into the mix !

Patrick Bahzad

there we go, the "Mossad" did it. Next !

Patrick Bahzad

Overly groomed for heterosexual men ? I suspect you don't travel much through rural France

Jack

Patrick

Your forecast of the size of Macron's win is what the polls show. Don't you think that the Socialists and the Republicans will generally support Macron even if his party does not do as well in parliamentary elections? After all his pro-EU, pro-foreign intervention, pro-open border and pro-global finance positions are similar to the major two parties.

How would you characterize the French electorate in terms of political divisions and what does this election say about French politics in general? The electoral map seems to show some kind of East-West geographic divide.

The Beaver

Patrick,

I too do believe that he will win but what I am looking forward to is Les Législatives next.

Could the FN raise the bar above the two seats they currently have?Yes they will, but how many more?
What will happen to the PS and LR, now that the cumul is not allowed? Some will seek to stay at the regional or lower levels if they believe that they will have more say and power.
I believe that political cohabitation will happen.

À suivre and, on May 6th, I will have to hit the road early so that I don't get stuck in a three hour wait!

LeaNder

The world isn't Germany ...

Well, Partrick, it's my home ground. And France is important on a larger EU basis. Forgive me for not keeping in the background as far as my own national identity is concerned. I should have? Maybe you are correct.

I am with you, if you have doubts about Macron, from the a no doubt in my case limited perception. ... More arbitrarily, a certain skepticism concerning ENA graduates? Maybe. But in any case, I doubt that Schäuble would like Macron, if Schäuble survives to meet his chosen counterpart. ...

de Gaulle, is a more difficult for me. Aware of the dislike of French friends. ... But maybe "vaguely" comparable to the non-soldier Adenauer, not leading resistance, but trying to survive by not attracting attention. Without any doubt versus my French close friends, I preferred de Gaulle as leader of the French resistance.

I do respect your the "winner takes it all rule". ... Don't worry about that.

The Beaver

Colonel,

OT: Just check what Erdogan did overnight in Northern Syria and Mount Sinjar
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-OxJpcUwAAA31C.jpg

and in Derik, the Radio Rojava Building
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-O1X5PXcAATUFT.jpg

kao_hsien_chih

I have nagging suspicion that Macron is, in a way, closer to Trump than not. He is more "style" than "substance," and do not mean this in a derogatory fashion. Having a too clearly defined set of "substance" is a loser's game: the reality is complicated, except for those who are "comfortable" with the status quo. People want someone who can provide flexible but effective leadership (or at least an appearance thereof) rather than the same old song and dance. Trump could, whereas Clinton could not. But, in this sense, Macron seems more able than LePen, notwithstanding superficially similar positions between LePen and Trump on one hand and Macron and Clinton on the other.

Kooshy

I think it's not just France experiencing unusual and somewhat unpredictable elections, in fact so far, this is has become consistent with the entire UNSC' western permanent members. IMO this electorate uprising against the traditional Borg favorite candididates, and the consequential deep-state/ Borg resistance to voters choice, is becoming a permanent part of the failed double standard of western democracies. I hope the west is not hoping to export this new format as a value to the rest of the world.

Babak Makkinejad

Patrick Bahzad:

Does "Deep France" still exist?

And if so, who would be its candidate?

Do you know?

Kooshy


A very good article on WP, explaining in detail what happened and what can happen in this last French election.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/04/25/heres-what-happened-in-the-first-round-of-frances-presidential-elections-and-what-happens-next/?utm_term=.2623425bff25

ex-PFC Chuck

This whole thread reminds me of the late governor of the state of Louisiana Edwin Edwards who once said, "The only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy." He won, but later lived in subsidized housing after being convicted of corruption.

Will.2718

True, and then what will be the implications of the lack of a parliamentary majority? a coalition government? gridlock?

divadab

More French than the French. Sort of like the Manchus - who took great pains to be more Chinese than the Han they had conquered.

I think also the Norman invasion was a coalition - certainly several Bretons made good with post-invasion awards of land, including the Stuart family who were Breton stewards to William the Bastard. Later providing kings of Scotland and of the newly-United Kingdom for several generations before losing their heads!

The comments to this entry are closed.

My Photo

October 2020

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
        1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Blog powered by Typepad