My thoughts on Korea - Chapter 1 - 19 April, 2017

 

"It was supposed to be steaming towards North Korea more than a week ago, an “armada” signaling American resolve. Then it wasn’t.

Now, it seems the USS Carl Vinson may finally be heading north.

“Our deployment has been extended 30 days to provide a persistent presence in the waters off the Korean Peninsula,” Rear Admiral Jim Kilby, the commander of Carrier Strike Group One, said in a message posted on the Carl Vinson’s Facebook page addressed to “families and loved ones” of the personnel on board.

[Despite talk of a military strike, Trump’s ‘armada’ actually sailed away from Korea]

The Carl Vinson, accompanied by a carrier air wing, two guided-missile destroyers and a cruiser, was supposed to have been ordered to sail north after leaving Singapore on April 8. But a week later, the Navy published photos showing it was actually sailing the opposite direction through the Sunda Strait between the Indonesia islands of Sumatra and Java, more than 3,000 miles southwest of the Korean Peninsula — and more than 500 miles southeast of Singapore."  Washpost

---------------

What!  You mean the US Navy did not inform the Washpostian snowflakes of the correct location of the Carl Vinson battle group?  For shame Navy!  For shame!  The self-obsession and self-importance of the journos continues to spiral upward toward Olympos.  Ho hum.

On a more serious subject - what is it that the old turcopolier thinks is likely to be in the prospect for a new Korean War? 

Well, pilgrims, close observation of Trump and Pence leads me to believe that nothing that goes BOOM will happen very soon.  It seems to me that they are going to wait for a bit to see if China will solve the nuclear weapons/ballistic missile dilemma that will soon face the US.  How long will they wait?  Holding my finger in the air to catch the direction of the breeze I would say - at least until late May.  How's that for a SWAG? 

Why?  Well, they want to "give peace a chance," i.e., see if they can finesse this actual problem without having to fight.  If that does not prove possible, and I think it will not be possible, they will take military action.

Why won't a negotiated solution work?  !- China is not terrible interested in negotiating on our behalf .  The North Koreans under their fat kid boss are still Asian Communists.  Why would the Chinese relish the idea of helping us against the Koreans?  Why?  2 - The spoiled brat fat kid does not really understand just how much devastation the US can wreak upon his "honey bucket" of a country if it sets itself on that path.  3 - Neither do Trump and Pence.  Trump has watched a lot of movies and Pence has a son who is a USMC junior aviator.  Great military thinkers they probably are not.

So, what is the probable future (60% maybe?) IMO by the end of May we have the possibility of three aircraft carrier battle groups being in the Sea of Japan.  That would make available the carriers' three embarked air wings with all the various ordnance on board as well as on board replenishment ships.  There would also be the assets provided by the ships of the aircraft carriers' screens.  These would be some combination of cruisers, destroyers and frigates, all of whom would be missile shooters.  Further surrounding these surface ships would be a number of submarines.  This truly would be an "armada."  To this could be added the weight of US strategic assets, i.e. heavy bombers; B-52s, B-1s and B-2s.  These can fly from anywhere in the world directly to their targets.  Like the cherry on an ice cream sundae there would also be the artillery and tactical air assets of US/ROK forces in the peninsula.

On the other side of the DMZ we would face the forces of the PDRK.  These are considerable.  A million men under arms, indoctrinated with anti-ROK feeling, 6,000+ tanks of varying vintage, about the same number of artillery weapons including the fearsome 170 mm rifle nicknamed the Koksan gun.  Built in the PDRK, this descendant of the German 88 mm multi-purpose gun was specifically designed to range Seoul from present positions north of the DMZ. 

IMO, a general US/ROK onslaught by air and artillery would be unable to neutralize all the PDRK artillery that can range Seoul.  A bombardment of the ROK capital might well be accompanied by a general PDRK ground attack across the DMZ.

The result would be general war in and around the Korean peninsula.  The casualties and destruction ensuing would probably be the political end of Trumpismo.  pl  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/trumps-missing-armada-finally-heading-to-korea--and-may-stay-a-while/2017/04/19/734ac5e7-ad0c-4395-9cfe-43a9596dca7b_story.html?utm_term=.c90bd42ffe04

Comments

[b]

I don't think another Korea War will happen.

"The spoiled brat fat kid does not really understand just how much devastation the US can wreak upon his "honey bucket" of a country"

There is not one in North Korean who does not know what inhuman damage the first U.S. war on them created. These people have schools, history lessons and millions of personal witnesses who attested to it. I do not think that North Korea will risk anything unless the attempt is to destroy the government and state.

Neither North Korea, NOR CHINA, can allow that to happen. They will defend the status quo.

Is Trump willing to risk the lives of 10,000nds of South Koreans for a useless (and completely illegal) show of force? The whole city of Seoul? Against the will of the South Korean government?

He is too smart for that. The Pentagon would also block such action.
North Korea is a nuclear state. That is water down the river. It can no longer be changed (thanks to Clinton and Republican Congress). It develops missiles. That is an 80 year old technology. There is no way to halt them from doing so. All one might be able to do is hinder the process. It can not be stopped except by negotiations.

North Korea has offered three time over the last three years to halt its missile and military nuclear programs if the U.S. and South Korea refrain from any further large maneuvers (which disrupt the North Korean economy.) China supports that deal.

That is a good deal. Trump should take it.

[Seamus Padraig]

Boy, what an utter disappointment Trump is shaping up to be. This is NOT what got him elected. North Korea, whatever its shortcomings, has not attacked anyone--least of all the US--in more than 60 years. As far as disarming the Norks is concerned, that's not going to happen--and the current situation shows us why. If they had never proliferated at all, they would already be gone, just like Iraq, Libya, etc. Kim knows that. Nukes give him some leverage. So if Trump attacks, I hope for his sake that he doesn't own any hotels in Tokyo!

[Mattias]

What if the ROK doesn't want to play along? They could well be on the way to elect a new government that want to try the Sunshine policy again.

[confusedponderer]

Thanks for your assessment.

That written, it's an interesting thing that Koksan gun.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koksan_(artillery)

[BraveNewWorld]

I assume that Trump can legally do all that with out talking to Congress first. But would he?

The repercussions of doing this from the destruction of the SK economy and all the parts they feed into various industries, the world economy, to the fall out with China are immense. But Trump has tweeted his way into a corner and is already looking bad with the majority of Americans that think their country is a failure if it isn't killing people.

As for the rest of the world . A country that says it will never give up nuclear weapons attacking another country, for not giving up nuclear weapons, will just make the US more and more despised in the world. The real American interest in this other than domestic politics???? Of course a couple of million Asian people should be more than willing to give their lives for American domestic politics. Right?

[turcopolier]

b

1. North Korea invaded South Korea in 1950, not the other way 'round. They invaded South Korea with the intention of destroying the South Korean government. You seem to have forgotten the UN Resolution that called for defense of South Korea. 2. DoD has no ability short of mutiny to block a presidential decision to go to war. None. 3. Trump IS NOT smart enough to see through the warhawk faction in Washington. pl

[Clueless Joe]

-> "The casualties and destruction ensuing would probably be the political end of Trumpismo."
With all due respect, Colonel, I think you're actually even underplaying the consequences. That would rank as illegal war of aggression, if the US shoots first. The level of destruction caused by another reckless and illegal US military action might well be the political end of current US situation of near-hegemony - for a starter, I can't see the nearly bankrupt EU countries backing and engaging with another war of choice, specially when it's on the other side of the world.

[aleksandar]

Will China accept a american state sponsored right their southern frontier ?
Never !
They will back DPRK.

[Peter AU]

Five hundred miles south in seven days or more? Eighty miles a day or less. Very leisurely cruise. Or did they head north for a day or two before turning back?

[BillWade]

My last tour was in the Philippines. We trained and trained, and then trained again for deploying our fighter squadrons to S Korea. The estimate then, and I can't see why that would have changed much now, was 1 million dead on day one alone. Unthinkable. I think the sabre rattling has more to due with Trump's planning on increasing defense spending.

[turcopolier]

Peter Au

As I wrote, they are in no hurry. pl

[turcopolier]

There is no reason to think rationality would prevent war. Pl

Sent from my iPhone

[Sam Peralta]

Col. Lang

The US political system has gone off the rails. There can be no doubt about that. The fact that the MSM and the political establishment cheered Trump and claimed he became "presidential" only after he ordered the firing of missiles at a Syrian airbase on a false pretext shows the level of dysfunction. No longer is there any element with a megaphone that speaks to US national interest. The only voices that are opposed to spending trillions on destroying sovereign nations and creating anarchy are at the fringe. They are immediately impugned as water-carriers of a foreign power. Pax Americana ends through self-destruction. We are well on our way to being despised by everyone. An amazing situation from the period of the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Pat Buchanan is one of those fringe voices along with Ron Paul and Tulsi Gabbard.

http://buchanan.org/blog/war-cries-drown-america-first-126827

The left in the US have blood lust in their push for their PC world.

[Will.2718]

Don't know where I read it, need to find it. But the salient fact is this: Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Koskan range is short of Soeul, but can create havoc on the suburbs. It can only hit Soeul with rocket assist, whatever that is. Clinto (vir) & Ash (in his first SecDef incarnation) were going to take the DMZ artillery till the South Koreans talked them out of it, so the press reports.

Don't know if counter battery radar or satellite data, or even a neutron bomb could take them out. After MOAB, guess nothing is off the table for The Donald. Another question: Will China allow North Korea to be defeated? After NATO expanded right up to Russia's border, will they allow U.S. bases on their border in a unified Korea?

This isn't quite the article T was looking for, but it says basically the same thing about the Koskan artillery range.
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-us-would-strike-north-korea-2017-3/#so-how-does-this-all-end-9

[FB Ali]

There is a distinct possibility that, if Kim believes a US attack is imminent, he may launch a pre-emptive strike against the US carrier group(s) (and other US allies in the region). And, if his nuclear LRBM is functional, against the US mainland.

Trump has no concept of the risks he is running (and subjecting US allies such as South Korea and Japan). But the US military leadership should be able to discern them better. Unless they are equally stupid - which is quite possible considering their blind belief in superior military might being able to solve all problems.

I think China's recent words and actions, ostensibly against North Korea, are more for the US's benefit, and designed to head off any such stupidity by Trump.

On a personal note, until recently I used to think that at least Trump would be better than Hillary, but I am not sure any more. She, at least, would have understood the strategic calculus better than this buffoon.

What a mess the US has got itself into! (And, sadly, dragged us all into as well).

[Razor]

Sam Peralta, there is no left - right divide on the topic of war. At least not in respect of what is called left in the US. They are all screaming and plotting for war, with honourable exceptions for a handful of paleoconservatives. There is only one party: the War Party. He'll I'm not American and I can see that.

[Leonardo]

I've recently come across what I think might be an interesting theory about Trump's aggressive stance towards North Korea. I'm gonna share and file it under the label of "food for thought". No idea about its accuracy, but I find it plausible.

Since the former South Korean President was impeached and compelled to resign - because of the corruption scandal she got involved into - new presidential elections will be held in South Korea on the 9th of May.

According to most polls, the next South Korean President might be the Democratic Party candidate Moon Jae-in. He runs on a political platform that includes a softening of the stance towards North Korea and a delay in the installation of the THAAD missile defence system, officially meant to protect South Koreans from Pyongyang, but obviously part of the installations the US are building with the intent of encircling China.

That is: the next South Korean President might be a man who intends to shift the South Korean foreing policy in a direction that would weaken the country's ties with the US, while stabilizing and improving relations with North Korea and - most importantly - China.

If something like this were to happen, Washington's plans and strategy in the far-east might face an obstacle. To prevent such a development the US may have decided to act so as to force a worsening of North and South Korea already tense relationship, making it much more difficult for the new President to pursue a rapproaching policy and - as a consequence - justifying the construction of a military installation that the US perceive as a vital strategic asset for the containment of China, while at the same time keeping the South Korean ally in check.

[Peter AU]

US gov DoD site had posted an article on Carl Vinson strike group to head north from Singapore and report on station in western pacific, rather than continuing to Australia.
If a ruse, what are the advantages to Trump admin?
I would guess China/Russia would be constantly aware of the strike force location at all times, especially in busy waterways in that part of the world.
A ruse directed at domestic audience?
Another thought, hardly mentioned in the NK issue is Russia, who also border onto NK. I believe Tillerson had a two hour meeting with Putin around this time. Putin/Tillerson meeting April 12?

[turcopolier]

FB Ali

I don't think the PDRK could do much to the carrier groups. pl

[AEL]

There is a South Korean election in May. The current leader in the polls is a dove and talks about returning to the sunshine days where North and South talked to each other.

This will likely stick in the throats of the Washington Warhawks.

[turcopolier]

will.2718

The Iranians used the Koksan for harassing attacks against the island that Kuwait owns NNE of Kuwait City. We calculated the range and it fit with use against Seoul. pl

[Will.2718]

i need to clarify the above with "purported Stratfor fact." If the Col. says Soeul is in range of the Norko guns, then that's what I go with. Just wanted to share what is out there.

[Will.2718]

I have more confidence with your range estimate than that of Business Insider relying on STRATFOR, for sure.

[b]

Thank you Pat. I know how the war in Korea started. Indeed the north started the shooting.

But it did not happen out of the blue. The U.S. had abrogated its agreement with Russia that Korea would become a united, democratic and independent state. Nationwide elections would likely have given the majority to Kim Il Sung and his nominally communist resistance fighters (against the Japanese). The U.S. did not want to risk that. It installed a U.S. aligned person Syngman Rhee (Christin, spoke English, U.S. educated) as quasi dictator in the south under "democratic" camouflage (92% of votes!). Rhee didn't purge the "elite" nor the police. Those who had helped the Japanese occupiers were back in power.

The former resistance leaders hoped they had still enough support in the south and invaded. Bad idea in hindsight but understandable from their point of view.

The UN at that time was just a U.S. tool. Neither Russia nor China were, at that time, part of it.

I think Trump is smarter than it seems. I do not think that even the warhawks are crazy enough to risk the obliteration of Seoul for no serious gain.

[Kooshy]

One shouldn't forget, beside China and SK, the only other country NK has a tiny border with is Russia near the very important port of Vladivostok