Ghouta redux? Was this attack real?

The MSM is filled with "news" of a supposed Syrian Government chemical warfare attack in Idlib Province.  All of the reporting is sourced to SOHR (one rebel supporter in a basement office in Coventry, England) and rebel media in Idlib Province.  How do we know this really happened?  The rebels have proven themselves extremely capable of staging propaganda pageants and they do have chemical weapons.  They make them in Syria.  These are not ignorant people.  The "White Helmets" were a fraud.  This is probably another, but the Borg loves the noise, especially the hysterics on CNN and MSNBC.

These AQ connected rebels in Idlib have been conducting an offensive in northern Hama.  This has been turned back and the rebels are being driven out of Hama in the direction of Idlib having lost many men.  As someone observed here the standard rebel reaction to severe adversity is to claim a chemical attack.  pl

Comments

[Ishmael Zechariah]

How the same lying goes on and on an on is beyond belief.
How many false prophets will humanity suffer through?
The poem below might be OT but might be not...
Ishmael Zechariah

Cassandra
The mad girl with the staring eyes and long white fingers
Hooked in the stones of the wall,
The storm-wrack hair and screeching mouth: does it matter, Cassandra,
Whether the people believe
Your bitter fountain? Truly men hate the truth, they'd liefer
Meet a tiger on the road.
Therefore the poets honey their truth with lying; but religion—
Vendors and political men
Pour from the barrel, new lies on the old, and are praised for kind
Wisdom. Poor bitch be wise.
No: you'll still mumble in a corner a crust of truth, to men
And gods disgusting—you and I, Cassandra.
Robinson Jeffers

[Bandolero]

pmr9

Add to your list that a rebel reporter just announced several hours before the attack that a rebel information operation was immenent for the North Hama battle field involving allegations that the Syrian government gasses civilians:

https://twitter.com/feraskaram01/status/849050540323594240

And so the "rebels" carried out this propaganda operation.

[optimax]

Assad isn't stupid enough to use gas (some reports say sarin, others chlorine) a couple of days after Tillerson announces we won't get rid of Assad. The WH and media report that Syria is responsible based on the the word of jihadists and without any investigation. I'm afraid people are stupid enough to believe it and will cheer us into a deeper conflict.

[Jack]

All

We know what the CIA fill feed POTUS. But, what about the rest of the IC and in particular Coats?

What advice, if any, will Mattis and Tillerson provide?

[sid_finster]

Am I the only one who finds it odd that these "attacks" only seem to happen right after the Syrian government has some kind of success?

[John_Frank]

The Russian Ministry of Defense has posted a video statement (in Russian) concerning the attack http://s.mil.ru/2nVkrj4

Russia Today has published the following report based on the Ministry of Defense statement:

Rebel warehouse with chem weapons hit by Syrian airstrike in Idlib – Russian MOD https://www.rt.com/news/383522-syria-idlib-warehouse-strike-chemical/

[Balint Somkuti, PhD]

Official reverse in US Assad policy, at the same time an ingoing Syria conference. And bang! A govt gas attack!? How convenient!!!

[Fred82]

Col Lang Sir,

What kinds of disinformation tactics did you see in Vietnam? How similar were they to this?

[Sam Peralta]

b

Good job debunking this BS. You know that folks who are not rabid interventionists will never be on a panel or be interviewed to debunk stories like this, the way you have just done.

Only the war party members get air time to mouth Borgist crap. Nutty McCain will be on non-stop.

[turcopolier]

fred82
Nothing like this at all. pl

[Dubhaltach]

In reply to Serge 04 April 2017 at 07:33 PM

"IMO there is no actual top down control for the vast majority of the SAA, it is an extremely decentralized outfit at this point. "

I would like some evidence for this remarkable assertion. Because it's at complete variance with my experience of the situation in Syria (just got back three weeks ago thanks for asking). It's also completely at variance with my experience of having been a professional military officer.

[Dubhaltach]

In reply to b 04 April 2017 at 06:15 PM

Just to follow up/expand a bit on this:

Lethal:

3-quinuclidinyl benzilate AKA QNB BZ Agent 15 - odourless
Sarin - odourless
Tabum - odourless when pure

Non-Lethal:

CS Gas - odourless

[confusedponderer]

Peterr,
"More importantly, Assad had no incentive for such an assault."

I have my doubts that the Syrian army chemicaled the city. The reports and pictures were rather well staged in terms of choreography and thus ... smelly.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/21/syria-talks-may-hinge-on-russias-willingness-to-put-pressue-on-assad

Also, there currently are some negotiations about peace in Syria with Assad as a PARTNER. It is likely that Syrian rebels may want to torpedo that.

Two days ago I read an article about the peace negotiations on Syria riding rough terrain. Under Trump not even the US still want regime change and had accepted Assad as a part of the solution.

Since it is apparently an utter horror to them, any deal with Assad as a partner was being rejected with outbursts by syrian opposition and rebels.

The Syrian rebels in response to the talks accused Assad of 'refusing to engage in detailed negotiations and instead continuing to starve Syrians into submission'.

All that, of course, becaue Assad is so evil and not because, say, rebels hide amongst Syrian civilians and are thus being neccesarily under siege.

It seems as if the rebel plans for regime change are unchanged ever since the start of the civil war.

Apparently, for the rebels, to achieve peace in syria, first Assad the evil civilian gasser and utter evildoer must to go - he couldn't, no, mustn't be partner for anyone.

What I'm getting that is this:
I'd argue that if regime change is so important to them, then one or a few more regime savageries, even if fictitious, is a small price, that, conveniently, someone else has to pay. People after such an atrocity could ... reject to talk with Assad, the vile and cruel civilian gasser ... because he is so irrational and evil!

For folk who hold that sort view the guilt of Assads in this butchery is a neccessity.

Spculation: So perhaps the idea behind the attack was to kill negotiations with Assad over Syria? In that case it would be unlikely that Assad was the attacker - such a deed would damage him in negotiations and only give fuel to the 'Assad must go' folks.

That's to say that others but Russia or the Syrian army do have interests in an atrocious event pinned on Assad, and the others do have the means and practice to do it and to play the story.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/29/chemical-weapons-found-in-mosul-in-isis-lab-say-iraqi-forces

Probably, for an enthusiastic rebel, if regime change is what you want to achieve, then pissing at truth a little is a small price to see Assad to go. Likely, if ever captured by rebels, Assad's life would end similar to Ghaddafi's.

It is interesting that the rebels are apparently losing. My pessimitic prognose of accepting that perhaps Assad is being blamed for something he didn't do:

The lesser rebel chances become in light of Syrian army succeses, the more often we'll probably see similar chemical incidents, for which - of course - the evil Assad will be accused.

So it probably will go on with suff like this.

[b]

Two remarks on top of my doubts above:

A. This was not Sarin, at least not in the weaponized pure form. It also was not an aimed hit on a hostile target (headquarter, staging forces, imminent attack force). Some precursor? Some other organophosphate? Some undiluted herbizide? Some mixtures?

B. The Russian MoD says a Syrian attack on a warehouse where chemical weapons were made or stored. It says that the mixture or whatever it was is known to them and has been used by "rebels" before. A Syrian source earlier said the same.

http://tass.com/world/939417
"Syrian aviation airstrike in Idlib targeted chemical arms lab — Russian Defense Ministry"

There might be two reasons why the Ru MOD would say this:

B.1.It is true - then we will likely see satellite pictures showing before/after of the hit and will be able to pinpoint a building that could be further investigated.

B.2. The event was staged like Ghouta was staged. But the Russian's decided to give Trump a "way out" (also like Ghouta). If he accepts the explanation (no matter if right or wrong) he can blame al-Qaeda and continue to attack it. Any U.S. action against the Syrian government can then be avoided.

- From what I have seen and read I consider this event to have been planned by anti-Syrian forces and elaborately staged by their movie production teams (White Helmets) on the ground.
- Russia giving Trump an "off ramp" or "way out" is likely the best explanation for their MoDs statement.
- I will reconsider this thesis if or when new information comes in.

[Jan]

Jeroen Oerlemans was killed in Sirte, Libya on 2nd of october 2016.

[Chris Chuba]

With so much speculation, why not allow inspectors in right away to examine the scene including the dead bodies, even the people who believe Assad did it should want to know what type of chemical weapons he still has. I hope the Russians press this point before Nikki Haley channels Samantha Powers.

I am quoting one argument from this article arguing that this was staged ...
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/jumping-conclusions-something-not-adding-idlib-chemical-weapons-attack/

"The White Helmets are handling the corpses of people without sufficient safety gear, most particularly with the masks mostly used , as well as no gloves. Although this may seem insignificant, understanding the nature of sarin gas that the opposition claim was used, only opens questions.

Within seconds of exposure to sarin, the affects of the gas begins to target the muscle and nervous system. There is an almost immediate release of the bowels and the bladder, and vomiting is induced. When sarin is used in a concentrated area, it has the likelihood of killing thousands of people. Yet, such a dangerous gas, and the White Helmets are treating bodies with little concern to their exposed skin. This has to raise questions. "[boldface added for emphasis]

[The Beaver]

Was watching Morning Joe this morning and they had the Syrian High Negotiations Committee rep. Bassma Kodmani and I chocked on my cereal when I heard her say something like this: We need to prevent Iran from encouraging the Jihadis and the crocodile tears were coming only from one eye !

I guess they didn't catch her lies. The goal is to prevent Iran from helping Saddam and now since AIPAC and Israel have a new BFF- KSA, both Bibi and Naftali Bennett are hoping that Trump will bombed the SyAF and bases (as does the UKUN rep in Turtle Bay) We just have to see what will happen this morning at the UNSC.

BTW: Leith has a good one on his Twitter account:

https://twitter.com/leithfadel/status/849487464817405952

The PMU found those same chemicals in Mosul a couple of weeks ago also.

[MRW]

Chris Chuba,

What html command did you use to indent those two paragraphs? Just give the beginning tag.

Thx.

[MRW]

Nikki Haley is already channeling Samantha Powers

[Fred]

Beaver,

I saw Savannah Guthrie smile throughout the Today show Pravda episode about Ghouta this morning. I gladly traded more of that for my morning commute. I wonder why they don't get a real expert from the Obama administration to speak on this, like say former national security adviser Susan Rice. It's not like she's been busy lately, has she?

[Old Microbiologist]

Being somewhat familiar with actually treating victims of chem/bio attacks, if it is Sarin (or similar nerve agent assumed from foam at mouth), it is a persistent agent used mostly for denial of terrain operations. Very tiny amounts can kill you and anyone entering a contaminated area will be equally dead. None of these people seem to be affected thus making this video very suspect. It outgases from contminated clothing and soil on a dose-dependent basis. On the other hand it could be chlorine gas which ISIS has used multiple times in the past and is not very useful in bombs. MOPP IV is the usual level of PPE required to treat victims. Anyone observe any PPE at all in the video? Looks fake to me.

[The Beaver]

Sorry , it should read "Assad" in lieu of Saddam

[John_Frank]

fwiiw The Russian Ministry of Defense has posted two statements concerning the events at Khan Sheikhun in Idlib Province, Syria on their Facebook page.

The first was in response to a Reuter's report.

Russian Defence Ministry strongly refuted another fake material published by the British agency Reuters concerning the alleged attack of the Khan Sheikhoun town carried out by the Russian aircraft using chemical warfare munitions
https://www.facebook.com/1492252324350852/photos/a.1492313031011448.1073741828.1492252324350852/1903164749926272/?type=3

The second is the statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense after carrying out their own investigation:

Russian Defence Ministry comments on the destruction of a depot with terrorists’ chemical weapons near Khan Sheikhun carried out by the Syrian aviation:
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1903432043232876&id=1492252324350852

“According to the objective monitoring data, yesterday, from 11:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. (local time) the Syrian aviation made a strike on a large terrorist ammunition depot and a concentration of military hardware in the eastern outskirts of the Khan Sheikhun town. On the territory of the depot, there were workshops, which produced chemical warfare munitions.

Terrorists had been transporting chemical munitions from this largest arsenal to the territory of Iraq. Both international organizations and the authorities of the country had repeatedly proved their usage by terrorists.

These chemical munitions had been also used by militants in Aleppo, their using was registered in the end of the previous year by the Russian specialists.

The poisoning symptoms of the victims in Khan Sheikhun shown on videos in social networks are the same as they were in autumn of the previous year in Aleppo.

At that time, all the facts of chemical weapons using in Syria together with the soil samples were protocoled and transferred to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

However, the experts of this international organization, having received all the materials and samples, which prove the using of chemical weapons by terrorists in Syria, are still examining them.

We assert that the presented information is completely objective and credible.”

The Russia Today article, which has already been cited, after summarizing what the Russian Defense Ministry spokesperson had to say cites the following:

Hasan Haj Ali, commander of the Free Idlib Army rebel group, rejected Russia’s version of the incident, saying the rebels had no military positions in the area.

“Everyone saw the plane while it was bombing with gas,” he told Reuters.

“Likewise, all the civilians in the area know that there are no military positions there, or places for the manufacture [of weapons]. The various factions of the opposition are not capable of producing these substances,” he added.

Rebel warehouse with chem weapons hit by Syrian airstrike in Idlib – Russian MOD https://www.rt.com/news/383522-syria-idlib-warehouse-strike-chemical/

According to Reuters, as reported in the RT article, citing activists and rebels, there was an alleged chemical weapons attack on a hospital in Khan Sheikhoun on Tuesday morning.

The Russian MOD says that Syrian Air Force conducted an attack on facilities used by militants on the eastern outskirts of Khan Sheikhun between 11:30 am to 12:30 pm local time.

At least two analysts tell RT that the events as described by the rebels were likely staged.

Rebels ‘only people who benefited’ from Idlib chemical weapons attack – analyst https://www.rt.com/op-edge/383524-syria-idlib-chemical-attack-rebels/

In the meantime, according to reports, the death toll has jumped to 72 - https://t.co/4VaaMrzltP

Also, the WHO is saying that the victims show signs of exposure to ‘nerve agents’ https://t.co/59dUTpwHC8

It is noted in passing that according to a report published on the UN website yesterday:

Syria: UN chief ‘deeply disturbed’ by reports of alleged chemical attack; OPCW investigating
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=56499#.WOT1zbjDuzk

[The Beaver]

@ MRW

Well she was at AIPAC some days ago and then we have the Israeli Ambassador at the UN as her "coach". It was funny watching her on This Week last Sunday when she thought she would teach Martha Raddatz about the start of the Syrian Civil War in Dara'a (she was stopped midway). She is another anti-Iran proponent at the UNSC

[pmr9]

b

I think the evidence so far favours hypothesis B2 over B1.

From the information available so far, there are three sites:-

1. the impact site alleged by the opposition, on a road in the town of Khan Sheikhoun at about 6.30 am on 4 April

2. the munitions depot struck by the Russian air force at midday (according to Konashenko), which may be the Camp Khazanat depot southeast of Khan Sheikhoun

3. the quarry, used as a base by the White Helmets, where photographs and videos uploaded on 4 April showed the bodies of children and adults laid out in the open. The best match for this so far is a site east of Khan Sheikhoun, where reinforced bunkers with ventilation shafts have recently been cut into the quarry wall. This is most likely to be the place where the victims were held and killed.

So the Russians presumably know that their air strike does not match the time or the place of the alleged chemical attack.

US government sources are now briefing that this was a sarin attack by the regime. We can expect that before long there will be positive tests on blood samples to confirm this. The risk for the planners of this attack is that this incident will lead to the reopening of investigations into the 2013 sarin attacks, on which far more information is now available [http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Talk:British_involvement_in_Syria]