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07 April 2017

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Peter AU

From all accounts, a number of Syrian personal were killed and injured.

I have just had a bit of a skim through this article at Reuters.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-instant-idUSKBN17909I

I could not read right through it. US is a criminal state. If the elected representatives in the US think Trump will destroy Syria for the jihadi's, Trump will not be impeached.
The US on well on the way to being destroyed, the same as nazi Germany was destroyed. The neo-cons will not stop until they have won or are destroyed.

Clueless Joe

Dear Tacitus, if your points 1 and 2 are correct, couldn't then it be possible that the someone in the US actually warned some rebel groups on the ground, so that they could deliver and store chemicals if not crude chemical weapons on the spot, knowing it would be blown off in the next few days? Basically, that someone clued them in so that they could stage a false-flag chemical attack, to force Trump's hand?
That might be treason or close to it, but there have been plenty of (nearly-)treasonous acts from US officials in the last 6 months...

ancient archer

On the contrary PT, I believe Donald Trump acted very smartly. He knows he has been unable to take control of the administration from the neocons. Given the force of the attack against him, he has had to make a few sacrifices along the way (Flynn, Bannon) to save himself. This is another sacrifice - hitting a way out Syrian airbase which doesn't really affect the progress of the war much - to deflect/absorb the attack of the neocons.

The neocons will probably now lessen their attack on Trump. At least, that's what he hopes for. I think time is a friend of Trump and an enemy for the neocons. With time, Trump will be able to take control of the administrative machinery and put his own people in place. Till then however, they have to play guerrilla tactics. I assume the neocons slow/stop their attack on Trump after this missile attack. Putin will understand that this is a necessary sacrifice and won't blow his top. Unless he makes these sacrifices, Trump will himself be sacrificed and he is just playing for time here.

Given Trump's previous history of seeing through propaganda, I don't believe he was foolish enough to be taken by this blatant false flag. He understands. But then everyone believes him to be a fool, which makes his job of being taken in much easier.

My 2c, probably based more on hope than anything else. But as more details come out, we will become surer of what damage the SAA sustained.

optimax

Trump should have stuck with Bannon. He's the brains.

LondonBob

I haven't seen any evidence yet that McMaster, Mattis and Pompeo are any better than the standard DC and Pentagon types who rise to the top, certainly the latter two worry me.

Trump's base certainly seem disgusted, lets see if more happens. Very sad really, I realised all Trump's flaws but he was the first to talk sense on both immigration and foreign policy and I never thought Rand Paul could actually win it.

I notice Putin rebuked Netanyahoo again yesterday. I do agree this was all orchestrated to push Trump's buttons as described by Scott Adams.
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/159264981001/the-syrian-gas-attack-persuasion

Bill Herschel

Who knew that when Obama elected a Republican Congress by enacting Obamacare that he would create the downfall of the Republican Party?

Repeal and replace? As dead as whoever was at that airbase. Illegal attacks on foreign countries is also dead. It will take some time to stop breathing. Same problem. No constituency.

Had repeal and replace been possible we'd be 59 Tomahawks richer. How ironic that a weapon used by native Americans should provide the moniker for the futility of the U.S.

ECM

He will be impeached, I believe, once Congress is presented with irrefutable proof that he ignored and rejected intelligence that did not support the myth that Syria attacked with chemical weapons.

Delusional nonsense, even though the analysis is sound.

Pundita

"Russia suspends flight safety memorandum over Syria after US missile strike – Foreign Ministry"
https://www.rt.com/news/383837-russia-syria-flight-safety/
7 Apr, 2017 - 08:02
RT

Russia has suspended the memorandum of understanding on flight safety in Syria with the United States amid [in the wake of?] the US missile strike on Syria’s Shayrat military airfield, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement.

“Without bothering to investigate anything, the US went forward with a demonstration of force, a military confrontation with a country that is fighting international terrorism,” the Foreign Ministry’s statement reads.

[...]

The Memorandum on air safety was signed in October 2015, after Russia came to Syria to fight international terrorism at the invitation of the country’s government. The document of understanding was designed to prevent possible mishaps between the Russian and US Air Forces operating independently in the region.

[...]

Pundita

PT - Great report. Thank you.

Pundita

PT - From earlier reports the Russians claimed they received no warning, the US says they did. If the following report is correct I am not sure the Russians were aware of the impeding strike -- unless perhaps they received warning with only moments to spare and SAA couldn't remove all the aircraft in time.

09:31 - 07.04.2017 (updated 11:26)
Sputnik
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201704071052388439-syria-shairat-planes-damage/

The Ash Sha'irat military airfield near Homs in Syria has been destroyed and its aircraft damaged in US missile strikes, the airfield staffer told Sputnik on Friday.

Syrian television reports that flames continue to engulf the airfield following the attack.

"All aircraft located there have been damaged, you can say it is completely destroyed," the staffer said.

[...]

DETAILS TO FOLLOW
[END REPORT]

Peter AU

In thinking about this, the only groups within Syria to benefit from this attack are al Qaeda and ISIS. US government knows from the failed 500 million dollar pentagon train and equip program, that there are no moderate rebels in Syria.
Perhaps the US attack on Deir Ezzor could be passed off as a mistake, but not this.
Shayrat and T4 were the two air bases used against ISIS in the palmyra and Deir Ezzor regions.
It seems most of the infrastructure at Shayrat has been destroyed, along with a number of planes.
There is no getting around the fact that AQ and ISIS are the direct beneficiaries of this premeditated US strike.

Prem

Once you start paying Danegeld to the Borg it's hard habit to quit.

My first thought was that the Russia smears have weakened him and he is bending under the pressure. But now, I'm not sure - he's either a very good actor, or he really believes the baloney he is being fed.

That is pretty plausible. Getting halfway decent information on Syria is not easy.

It won't come from the MSM. Perhaps there are some sceptical voices still in the State Department, US intelligence community or active service military.

Tigermoth

Statement from the Russian FM

http://www.mid.ru/ru/press_service/spokesman/official_statement/-/asset_publisher/t2GCdmD8RNIr/content/id/2717798?p_p_id=101_INSTANCE_t2GCdmD8RNIr&_101_INSTANCE_t2GCdmD8RNIr_languageId=en_GB


"The United States conducted strikes against Syrian government troops in the early hours of April 7, using chemical weapons attacks in Idlib Province as a pretext.

The US opted for a show of force, for military action against a country fighting international terrorism without taking the trouble to get the facts straight..."

"Seeking to justify military action Washington has totally distorted what had happened in Idlib. The US could not have failed to grasp the fact that the Syrian government troops did not use chemical weapons there. Damascus simply does not have them, as confirmed a number of times by qualified experts. This was the conclusion reached by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)..."

"As for Idlib, the terrorists operating there used to produce toxic land mines intended for use in Syria and Iraq. These manufacturing facilities were put out of operation in a military operation carried out by the Syrian air force.

The US pretends that it does not understand obvious things, turning a blind eye to the use of chemical weapons in Iraq, officially confirmed by Baghdad. The US refuses to believe the evidence provided by certified documents confirming the use of chemical weapons by terrorists in Aleppo. In doing so, the US is abetting international terrorism and making it stronger. New WMD attacks can be expected..."

"It is obvious that the cruise missile attack was prepared in advance. Any expert understands that Washington’s decision on air strikes predates the Idlib events, which simply served as a pretext for a show of force.

Russia suspends the Memorandum of Understanding on Prevention of Flight Safety Incidents in the course of operations in Syria signed with the US."

US Aircraft are now targets.

Peter Reichard

Just as with his eponymous "university" the gigantic bait and switch that was Trump's pseudo-populist campaign has finally come to fruition in the worst possible way with the attack on Syria. Looking at his advisers preelection and his appointments post it was easy to see that his administration would be no friend of the working class that elected him but at least his positions about Russia and Syria seemed to be more rational than those of his opponent. Even this,alas,appears to have been a mirage.
Weak, ill informed and even worse, too mercurial and spontaneous to be entrusted with the levers of power he has been easily flipped 180 degrees on Syrian policy. Any possibility of Russian rapprochement may now be dead as under pressure from a largely phony "Russiagate", a hostile press and coopted by his advisers he has now been partially assimilated into the neoconservative hive mind.
The ship of state has entered dangerous, uncharted waters captained by someone unready to man the helm but to his credit he is not a dangerously rigid ideologue and I can only pray the wisdom of his better instincts will guide us through this crisis.

pmr9

PT

I don't doubt that you are correct in stating that the US military know that this was not a chemical attack. However the suggestion by the Russian Ministry of Defence (and it was only a suggestion) that the casualties could have resulted from a hit on a depot holding explosives and chemicals is unlikely. As b has noted, it's likely that the Russians also know this and are simply trying to give the US a way to climb down.

All evidence so far indicates that this was a massacre of captives, probably at the quarry east of Khan Sheikhoun where there have been extensive excavations and bunkers with ventilation shafts have been constructed in the last two years. The most compelling evidence for this is what the videos do not show. Although the White Helmets have helmet cams, there are no videos of them breaking into homes to find victims dead in their beds. Although the alleged attack occurred before dawn, the victims are in day clothes. Instead we see bodies laid out in the quarry with children separated from their parents, a video of alleged victims in hospital by a jihadi struck-off doctor, and someone who is purported to be the only survivor of a family of 19 holding the bodies of two children he claims to be his. Photographs of the children are produced, but not showing them with their purported father.

It's unlikely that sarin was used to kill the victims: the brick-red colour of the bodies is consistent with a metabolic poison like cyanide, which is the agent of choice for gassing captives as it does not leave any residue. However recent reports indicate that US and UK intelligence services expect that samples from this incident will test positive for sarin. It's not clear whether these will be physiological samples (which don't provide a detailed chemical profile) or whether they will be environmental samples which will show a perfect match to the Syrian military stocks destroyed on the Cape Ray. What is clear is that this information operation, like Ghouta, was planned in advance.

Albano Pina

I am sorry, gentlemen !
Until today, because of so many good Americans like you, and because of your last elections, one could still manage to see the American Republic as an ally (though misconducted). Nowm it seems clear that, like with nazi Germany, the only way to stop the hydra is a major war. There where also good Germans who didn't deserve to be in the wrong place of history but, alas, they where.
Good luck for all, and may God be with all of us and our families.

alba etie

All
"Meet the new boss , same as the old boss !"

Lefty_Blaker

Publius,

Thanks for that analysis. How is it that you know points 1 and 2? This is obviously a critical part of what you say.

MRW

Thanks, Publius Tacitus, great post.

I can’t get past the most obvious question: Why would Assad use chemical weapons on his own citizens but doesn't use them on ISIS?

Of course, there was none of this outcry in early 2009 when Israel fried infants with white phosphorous and other toxic banned chemical weapons. They dont allow the Palestinians to escape. Take a look. The most heartbreaking one was a father holding up his charred black two-year old with tears streaming down his face with an ambulance behind him. I can’t find it on my drive. They bombed UN schools--sardines in a can, a supposed safe zone, 50-60 kids killed--and these same Anti-Assad neocons yawned. Despicable hypocrites.
http://www.indymedia.org.uk/images/2006/08/347271.jpg

Tel

"This attack was violation of international law."

And a violation of American law. I guess we might find out how many activist Democrat judges get interested in the US Constitution real soon now. Don't laugh... they got interested in state's rights pretty quick when it suited them.

"It should also alarm American taxpayers that we launched $100 million dollars of missiles to blow up sand and camel shit."

I dunno, is it more miserable to spend your whole life working at some job just to watch it get taxed away to buy a bucket of overpriced titanium bolts in some spare parts store at the back of an airbase somewhere? It's a tough call.

maningi

Remember Donald Trump words on Twitter?

31.08.2013: "Be prepared, there is a small chance that our horrendous leadership could unknowingly lead us into World War III"

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/373743492151136256

Yeah, Right

Hmmmm, if this is true then the implications for Trump are grim, because the Russians are certain to have a record of that phone call prior to the Syrian strike in Iblib.

They need only release a copy of that call and Trump's ass is left swinging in the breeze. WikiLeaks, anyone?


C L

This has little to do with the Syrian sandbox and all to do with the Chinese delegation visit. Negotiation by intimidation. 50 cruise missiles to take out an airfield that needed a new runway is overkill. 50+cruise missiles will devastate any of those new atoll airfields cropping up in the south china seas.
This is the sort of thing the so called 'great negotiator' loves to foist on his counterparts.
'Welcome to my private playground Xi,I call it the winter white house, lets eat our steaks, let the women go to the beauty salon, get a good night's rest then talk business after I bomb the sandbox with $100,000,000.00 worth of presidential toys'.

How will this affect the negotiations...

notlurking

Bastard neocons.....but Mr Trump has joined them...

Dr.Puck

If the salient details of #3 are true, their verification will follow an initial presentation of evidence. Alas, this is unlikely to be delivered by neutral parties. Still, in today's climate such a counter narrative will enjoy the delivery punch of the alternative media system. We'll see.

Otherwise, President Trump discovering his own inner borg is the least surprising news of this day. Obviously, he wasn't in a mood to see what the possible facts were on the ground. ...again, predictable.

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