“Syria fire missiles at Israeli jets after airstrikes” - TTG

By Ian Deitch | AP March 17 at 1:14 PM

JERUSALEM — Syria fired missiles at Israeli warplanes early Friday after a series of Israeli airstrikes inside Syria — a rare military exchange between the two hostile neighbors that was confirmed by both sides.

The Israeli military said its aircraft struck several targets in Syria and were back in Israeli-controlled airspace when several anti-aircraft missiles were launched from Syria toward the Israeli jets.

Israeli aerial defense systems intercepted one of the missiles, the army said, without elaborating. It would not say whether any other missiles struck Israeli-held territory, but said the safety of Israeli civilians and Israeli aircraft was “not compromised.”  (Washington Post)

————————————

All sorts of wild rumors were flying about after this exchange this morning. Most of them, if not all of them, are not true. Even the U.S. is downplaying the whole affair. A DOD spokesman said this in a briefing. "I do not have any particular reaction for you. We are certainly aware of it. This is a matter between Israel and Syria and not something we were a party to.” 

The best explanation I’ve seen for this is offered by Elijah J. Magnier over his twitter account.

————————————

1. What happen between Israel and Syria today in Palmyra?

 Israel tried to break "redlines", attacking inside the "allowed zones & targets.

2. There are no targets for Iran or Hezbollah (weapons traveling to Lebanon or the Golan heights) in Palmyra but an attempt to push ROE.

3. The targets Israel hit today are close to the T4 and are involved in the war in Syria, a red line for Russia who approved a "warning"

4. Russia doesn't want to see an Israeli jet hit over its operational theatre (in Syria) unless Israel pushed the boundaries.

5. This explains why Syria didn't use its S-300 but limited itself to already existing anti-air missiles and a "warning to Israel".

6. As long as Israel hits targets in Damascus airport or warehouses on the way to Lebanon (not inland like today) Russia won't intervene.

7. The recent visit of Netanyahu to Moscow failed to reach its objectives in convincing Russia to switch against Iran and Hezbollah.

8. Israel tried to "test the ground" today but will "close the incident" and accept the message behind it, aware Syria is Russia’s playground.  (@EjmAlrai)

————————————

I agree with Magnier. If Bibi didn’t receive the message during his pilgrimage to Moscow last week, I would think he got it loud and clear this morning. Vladimir Vladimirovich is calling the shots now in this part of the Mediterranean... and he wants a quiet, orderly neighborhood.

TTG

https://twitter.com/EjmAlrai

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/missiles-fired-from-syria-at-israeli-jets-after-airstrikes/2017/03/17/f230f118-0ae4-11e7-bd19-fd3afa0f7e2a_story.html?utm_term=.7d09c913ad6e

http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Why-did-the-IDF-employ-top-tier-anti-ballistic-tech-against-Syria-strike-484484

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201703171051691543-israeli-plane-downed-over-syria-analysis/

Comments

[turcopolier]

TTG

I fail to see how Russia delivered a "warning" in this encounter. pl

[b]

Moscow summoned the Israeli ambassador toady and , I presume, read Netanyahoo the riot act. It likely called off ALL Israeli strikes onto Syrian ground and may have had a word or two about Israel's continuing al-Qaeda/ISIS support near the Golan. Israel has north of 1 million Russian heritage voters who love Putin. Netanyahoo can't screw him like he screws U.S. president.

[Bandolero]

TTG, pl

The best explanation of the incident I heard so far is that it was neither the Russians nor the Syrian air defence that fired onto the Israeli jets, but it was Hezbollah themselves, and it was done with Iranian systems developped on the base of Russian S-200 technology transfer. The message sent to Israel was: our missiles are not yet the very last model, but we can see your jets already on radar and game is on that we improve our missile technology.

[turcopolier]

Bandolero

IMO the R+6 needs to shoot down a couple of Israeli aircraft. So that like Daigerfield they could have some respect. pl

[Kooshy]

TTG, it sounds like the Moscow trip did not produce the objectives Nutywho whished for, Iranian news sites report Russia has deployed up to 150 minesweper specialists around T4, I don't Think is a good idea to bomb Russian personnel and don't know if Babi thinks a WW3 is good for him and Israel, but I think he should get his head checked.

[Kooshy]

Colonel, IMO, unless is the Syrian or Russians goverment' doing it, the US, and Europe' Israeli firster crowd, will go ballistic and will pressure Russia for not controlling her (terrorist) allies.

[Bandolero]

turcopolier

I agree but I also see a point in thinking that it would be preferable if Iran and Hezbollah will do that with "indigenous" systems.

It would lead to a situation where Russia can't be targeted as an enemy by the Borg when they need the Russians to reign in their "difficult" Iran/Hezbollah clients and Russia may extract from the US in reciprocal manner that the USA needs to reign in their "difficult" Israeli/Saudi clients.

[The Twisted Genius]

pl,

I see this as a measured and restrained warning. Surely more measured than the Israelis deserve, but it was a step beyond words. I think it was a shock to an Israeli force more comfortable with beating children, kidnapping sheep and bombing targets with impunity than facing a foe who just may shoot back.

[lally]

Israeli defense analysts Barbara Opall-Rome has an analysis of the "bizarre Israel-Syria story" in Defense News. As to the most excellent Elijah Magnier's bullet point #7 above, she appears to believe that things went swimmingly in Moscow:

"A more likely scenario, several experts here said, is that the Syrian regime was so incensed by yet another successful Israeli air attack on its soil that it fired off a Scud-type ballistic missile to make a point. Perhaps their point was to warn Israel against future incursions into its territory.

Or, in light of last week’s meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed at coordinating strategic interests and actions in Syria, perhaps Damascus felt the need to protest too much clarity between its Russian patron and its Israeli enemy"

??? Perhaps, the loyal Ms Opall-Rome is simply applying some distracting lipstick.....to the usual suspect.

[MRW]

TTG, I’ve found your recent posts highly entertaining and satisfying. Ditto the comments both for and against. God, I love this site.

[BraveNewWorld]

I will toss a couple of links in since b didn't.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-summons-israeli-envoy-demands-clarifications-on-syria-strike/

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201703171051691543-israeli-plane-downed-over-syria-analysis/

[BraveNewWorld]

Thanks for the reminder the Russians are over there in numbers. For some reason I hadn't clicked on that. Imagine if the Isralis had hit Russians?

[MRW]

"distracting lipstick.” lol.

Ah, the expression of the pedant in me. Pardon, excusez-moi. But when quoting as you have (without doing billboards like QUOTE/END QUOTE, or itals), the succeeding paragraphs to the first always take a double quote at the beginning (not the end) until the quote is finished.

So, "Or, in light of last week’s meeting . . .

[Degringolade]

TTG: This is related...I would truly love to hear your thoughts.

Me: I shot beer out of my nose when I read this, I gotta be more careful, took me five minutes to wipe off my monitor.

http://www.theverge.com/2017/3/16/14944256/patriot-missile-shot-down-consumer-drone-us-military

[BraveNewWorld]

A few points. First Syria doesn't have S-300 thay have some old S-200.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/in-first-reported-use-arrow-intercepts-its-target-but-was-it-a-success/

Russia has S-300 &S-400 in Syria but it is manned and controlled by Russians.

I have to agree with others. What ever Netanyahu and Putin were talking about in their recent meeting it did not go Bibi's way. Not only was the public rebuke of Netanyahu quite remarkable. But if the Russians are calling in the ambassador for some 'splainin' just a few days later, thing are not rosy.

I highly doubt Israel learned any lesson of the type Magner referred to. After all if you know that no matter what you do the US is still going to come bail you out, you don't learn lessons, you just keep acting recklessly and irresponsibly.

[BraveNewWorld]

I should toss one more thing in here. If Putin wants to really send a message, off loading some new anti-air kit for the SAA would do the job. I am keeping my eyes open for a story to that effect.

[Babak Makkinejad]

TTG:

I agree that Putin desires a quiet neighborhood; that is their strategic objective.

China desires the same thing, without a doubt, if they can get it.

That the Western Fortress cannot share that objective is indicative of its political decay; in my opinion.

[The Twisted Genius]

Degringolade,

Sounds similar to the USS Zumwalt. It can't fire its main guns because the rounds cost $800,000 a piece. It's the weak link of having policy of designing weapons systems where money is no object. If I had to guess, I'd say some numb nut Saudi crew blew a Patriot missile on a $200 drone. The Houthis, Hezbollah and probably many others are taking note of this. How about constructing cheap drones that mimic more dangerous threats. It's like dummy warheads on MIRVs.

[The Twisted Genius]

MRW,

Thanks. Glad you enjoy some of my lighter pieces. I enjoy presenting them.

[Peter AU]

Iran/Hezbollah seemed to survive through the nineties ok, so perhaps they have a little more independence than as clients to Russia?
Saudi/Israel on the other hand... how would they cope without big brother?

[Peter AU]

At the time Russia moved the S-300VM into Tartus, Russian MoD announced they had also completed electronic upgrades to the Syrian S-200 systems.
Any thoughts on this TTG/pl?
Electronics seem perhaps the most important part of anti aircraft systems?

[lally]

MRW.

Thanks for the appreciation and pedant perspective, but, Luddite than I am, I will continue to keep to the simple format that has served since my initial foray into contentious online forum discussions circa Springtime 2001.

In actuality, you missed my most egregious violation of innerweb rules of the road. I woefully neglected to provide the link to Ms Opall-Rome's illuminating article describing the head-scratching among her knowledgeable Israeli contacts re some of the puzzlingly contradictory and sketchy details as related in the official version of the incident:

http://www.defensenews.com/articles/israels-arrow-scores-first-operational-hit-but-against-what

[MRW]

TTG, I appreciate the heavier shit as well. Make no mistake. Or I wouldn’t pay attention to the “lighter pieces.” Why would I?

[MRW]

I highly doubt Israel learned any lesson of the type Magner referred to.

Israelis are incapable of it. Basically stupid, nationally and diplomatically. Comes with being a Sabra. Not the smartest knives in the drawer no matter what Dan Señor claims.

[Old Microbiologist]

Not to be snickity, but I predicted this back in the drone discussion. Not mentioned though, is what can be done when being attacked by a swarm of autonomous programmed cheap drones each carrying 1 kg of munitions at 100 mph running zig-zag courses. Talk about cost/benefit ratios. It is not a question of if but actually when this comes to fruition.