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17 March 2017

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turcopolier

TTG

I fail to see how Russia delivered a "warning" in this encounter. pl

b

Moscow summoned the Israeli ambassador toady and , I presume, read Netanyahoo the riot act. It likely called off ALL Israeli strikes onto Syrian ground and may have had a word or two about Israel's continuing al-Qaeda/ISIS support near the Golan. Israel has north of 1 million Russian heritage voters who love Putin. Netanyahoo can't screw him like he screws U.S. president.

Bandolero

TTG, pl

The best explanation of the incident I heard so far is that it was neither the Russians nor the Syrian air defence that fired onto the Israeli jets, but it was Hezbollah themselves, and it was done with Iranian systems developped on the base of Russian S-200 technology transfer. The message sent to Israel was: our missiles are not yet the very last model, but we can see your jets already on radar and game is on that we improve our missile technology.

turcopolier

Bandolero


IMO the R+6 needs to shoot down a couple of Israeli aircraft. So that like Daigerfield they could have some respect. pl

Kooshy

TTG, it sounds like the Moscow trip did not produce the objectives Nutywho whished for, Iranian news sites report Russia has deployed up to 150 minesweper specialists around T4, I don't Think is a good idea to bomb Russian personnel and don't know if Babi thinks a WW3 is good for him and Israel, but I think he should get his head checked.

Kooshy

Colonel, IMO, unless is the Syrian or Russians goverment' doing it, the US, and Europe' Israeli firster crowd, will go ballistic and will pressure Russia for not controlling her (terrorist) allies.

Bandolero

turcopolier

I agree but I also see a point in thinking that it would be preferable if Iran and Hezbollah will do that with "indigenous" systems.

It would lead to a situation where Russia can't be targeted as an enemy by the Borg when they need the Russians to reign in their "difficult" Iran/Hezbollah clients and Russia may extract from the US in reciprocal manner that the USA needs to reign in their "difficult" Israeli/Saudi clients.

The Twisted Genius

pl,

I see this as a measured and restrained warning. Surely more measured than the Israelis deserve, but it was a step beyond words. I think it was a shock to an Israeli force more comfortable with beating children, kidnapping sheep and bombing targets with impunity than facing a foe who just may shoot back.

lally

Israeli defense analysts Barbara Opall-Rome has an analysis of the "bizarre Israel-Syria story" in Defense News. As to the most excellent Elijah Magnier's bullet point #7 above, she appears to believe that things went swimmingly in Moscow:

"A more likely scenario, several experts here said, is that the Syrian regime was so incensed by yet another successful Israeli air attack on its soil that it fired off a Scud-type ballistic missile to make a point. Perhaps their point was to warn Israel against future incursions into its territory.

Or, in light of last week’s meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed at coordinating strategic interests and actions in Syria, perhaps Damascus felt the need to protest too much clarity between its Russian patron and its Israeli enemy"

??? Perhaps, the loyal Ms Opall-Rome is simply applying some distracting lipstick.....to the usual suspect.

MRW

TTG, I’ve found your recent posts highly entertaining and satisfying. Ditto the comments both for and against. God, I love this site.

BraveNewWorld

I will toss a couple of links in since b didn't.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-summons-israeli-envoy-demands-clarifications-on-syria-strike/

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201703171051691543-israeli-plane-downed-over-syria-analysis/

BraveNewWorld

Thanks for the reminder the Russians are over there in numbers. For some reason I hadn't clicked on that. Imagine if the Isralis had hit Russians?

MRW

"distracting lipstick.” lol.

Ah, the expression of the pedant in me. Pardon, excusez-moi. But when quoting as you have (without doing billboards like QUOTE/END QUOTE, or itals), the succeeding paragraphs to the first always take a double quote at the beginning (not the end) until the quote is finished.

So, "Or, in light of last week’s meeting . . .

Degringolade

TTG: This is related...I would truly love to hear your thoughts.

Me: I shot beer out of my nose when I read this, I gotta be more careful, took me five minutes to wipe off my monitor.

http://www.theverge.com/2017/3/16/14944256/patriot-missile-shot-down-consumer-drone-us-military

BraveNewWorld

A few points. First Syria doesn't have S-300 thay have some old S-200.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/in-first-reported-use-arrow-intercepts-its-target-but-was-it-a-success/

Russia has S-300 &S-400 in Syria but it is manned and controlled by Russians.

I have to agree with others. What ever Netanyahu and Putin were talking about in their recent meeting it did not go Bibi's way. Not only was the public rebuke of Netanyahu quite remarkable. But if the Russians are calling in the ambassador for some 'splainin' just a few days later, thing are not rosy.

I highly doubt Israel learned any lesson of the type Magner referred to. After all if you know that no matter what you do the US is still going to come bail you out, you don't learn lessons, you just keep acting recklessly and irresponsibly.

BraveNewWorld

I should toss one more thing in here. If Putin wants to really send a message, off loading some new anti-air kit for the SAA would do the job. I am keeping my eyes open for a story to that effect.

Babak Makkinejad

TTG:

I agree that Putin desires a quiet neighborhood; that is their strategic objective.

China desires the same thing, without a doubt, if they can get it.

That the Western Fortress cannot share that objective is indicative of its political decay; in my opinion.

The Twisted Genius

Degringolade,

Sounds similar to the USS Zumwalt. It can't fire its main guns because the rounds cost $800,000 a piece. It's the weak link of having policy of designing weapons systems where money is no object. If I had to guess, I'd say some numb nut Saudi crew blew a Patriot missile on a $200 drone. The Houthis, Hezbollah and probably many others are taking note of this. How about constructing cheap drones that mimic more dangerous threats. It's like dummy warheads on MIRVs.

The Twisted Genius

MRW,

Thanks. Glad you enjoy some of my lighter pieces. I enjoy presenting them.

Peter AU

Iran/Hezbollah seemed to survive through the nineties ok, so perhaps they have a little more independence than as clients to Russia?
Saudi/Israel on the other hand... how would they cope without big brother?

Peter AU

At the time Russia moved the S-300VM into Tartus, Russian MoD announced they had also completed electronic upgrades to the Syrian S-200 systems.
Any thoughts on this TTG/pl?
Electronics seem perhaps the most important part of anti aircraft systems?

lally

MRW.

Thanks for the appreciation and pedant perspective, but, Luddite than I am, I will continue to keep to the simple format that has served since my initial foray into contentious online forum discussions circa Springtime 2001.

In actuality, you missed my most egregious violation of innerweb rules of the road. I woefully neglected to provide the link to Ms Opall-Rome's illuminating article describing the head-scratching among her knowledgeable Israeli contacts re some of the puzzlingly contradictory and sketchy details as related in the official version of the incident:

http://www.defensenews.com/articles/israels-arrow-scores-first-operational-hit-but-against-what

MRW

TTG, I appreciate the heavier shit as well. Make no mistake. Or I wouldn’t pay attention to the “lighter pieces.” Why would I?

MRW

I highly doubt Israel learned any lesson of the type Magner referred to.

Israelis are incapable of it. Basically stupid, nationally and diplomatically. Comes with being a Sabra. Not the smartest knives in the drawer no matter what Dan Señor claims.

Old Microbiologist

Not to be snickity, but I predicted this back in the drone discussion. Not mentioned though, is what can be done when being attacked by a swarm of autonomous programmed cheap drones each carrying 1 kg of munitions at 100 mph running zig-zag courses. Talk about cost/benefit ratios. It is not a question of if but actually when this comes to fruition.

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