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11 March 2017

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The Twisted Genius

The R+6 also seems ready to make their move on Idlib with their own plan. Al Masdar reports:

"Sources report that between 25,000-30,000 soldiers from the Syrian Arab Army, Hezbollah, and Iranian forces are preparing for a major operation in the Idlib countryside that is expected to last for at least three months. The operation will be launched from several axes, including the Jisr Al-Shughour front located at the western part of the Idlib Governorate. The Syrian Arab Army will focus on Jabal Al-Zawiyah and Jisr Al-Shughour, while the Iranians and Hezbollah attempt to lift the siege on Kafraya and Al-Fou’aa."

Sam Peralta

Col. Lang

It looks like to paraphrase TTG "The sh*t is on"! Good. Time for the jihadis to meet up with their virgins in the sky.

I just hope President Trump and his generalissimo will allow Assad to consolidate Syria and continue with a multi-confessional secular state as an example of what could have been, if Dubya and his neocon assistants did not destroy Iraq.

In a case of hypothetical, what would have happened if we had allowed Saddam to keep Kuwait and possibly even take Saudi Arabia? It would seem there would not have been a such a jihadi problem. Oil would not have been an issue as he would have to sell and the shale revolution in the Permian would have kept a lid on prices.

sid_finster

I am not sure that is what is happening. Instead, it looks like "regime change" under another name.

https://www.rt.com/news/380256-assad-foreign-troops-invaders/

turcopolier

sid_finster

Sid, ole buddy, you think what you like. pl

Daniel Nicolas
Without foreign intervention, the Syrian war “will take a few months” to bring to an end, Assad noted.

“The complexity of this war is the foreign intervention. This is the problem,” he said.

Assad isn't wrong, and for him to go on record for anything less would not be wise.

that said, the obvious communication between the various groups of people on the ground and actually getting the work done is necessary and I'm glad it looks like more and more of it is happening

aleksandar

There's no virgin in the sky. It's a translation error from araméen to arabic. It refer in araméen to vineyards and grapes. It is consistent with all the references to Abraham ( Lord's vineyards) made by Mahomet in the Coran.

different clue

If this results in ISIS deleted, followed by the deletion and erasure of all "zones of insolence" aside from Idlib Province; one may hope the final endpoint is a careful and final " mills of God" approach to the jihadi sump of Idlib Probince.

If it happens this way, it may leave a legacy of productive deconfliction with Russia to be enjoyed and perhaps extended. Perhaps to mutual de-proxification from the various players in Ukraine and finally a diplomatic deconfliction between the Russiagov and the USAgov in general.

aleksandar

IMO Tiger forces goal was to prevent turks to stole more syrian soil after conquering Al Bab.Done.
The second objective was the water pumping station.Done.
The thrid is expelling IS from the west side of Euphrat to have back oil and gas fields.In the making
These are political gains.
About Idleb, I guess that so far SAA has not enough manpower to treat this cancer.Liberating all jihadist pocket around Damascus, Hama and Homs is possible.It's both a polital and military objective.
Both COA ( pocket and expelling IS from the west Euphart river ) will free around 10K SAA soldiers ready for the mother of battle,Idleb.
As long as jihadists are killing each others in Idleb province there's no need to be hasty.
And maybe, recent pro assad protest and the pace of reconciliation are for Damas the best short term tools to reduce size of the battle fied and have a better concentration of forces.

VietnamVet

Colonel,

Based on your experience, I agree that the war to eliminate the Islamic State is on. Except, nobody has told us anything, officially.

The basic contradictions persist. Who will fight block by block to take Raqqa? Not Americans? Not the Kurds? If Mosul is an indication, Sunnis will die to the last true believer if the Jihadi families can’t be bussed out. Turkey is blocked. Who will be the occupiers of Eastern Syria? The Syrian Arab Army has a legitimate right to be in Raqqa. Will Israel and the Gulf Monarchies sit idly by while the Shiite Crescent is made whole? Too many questions.

If the 21st century has shown us anything, it is that corporate supranational rule brings only inequality and chaos. If there is ever going to be peace and the flow of refugees ended, national governments must be rebuilt under the rule of law and their borders secured. Then national alliances can be built that address the world’s problems.

Ghostship

I'd suggest yet more smokescreen - Trump's biggest problem is going to be the domestic opponents of this switch among the Republicans and Democrats in Congress. As well as the Tweeting and "lies", he's now has Bashir Al-Assad bad mouthing him so who's going to believe claims that Trump has effectively switched sides on Syria. Which is also probably why Russia and Iran haven't been invited to the Friends of HTS (aka Qatar) and ISIS (aka KSA) meeting in Washington on March 22-23rd.
Do I have any evidence for all the above? A bit but not much but when recently has a lack of evidence stopped anyone from making the most outlandish claims. If HRC and the DNC can do it, so can I.
As for the next month or so, I reckon the SAA are going to spend the time putting HTS, etc. from Idlib through the meat grinder in west Aleppo Governorate hence all the publicity about the SAA sending reinforcements to the Al-Zahra front north west of Aleppo to attack Al-Layramoun and Kafr Hamra. It looks like HTS have taken the bait.
"Opposition activists claimed a large convoy consisting of several militant groups were heading northeast from the Idlib Governorate to the Al-Malaah and Al-Zahra areas of Aleppo on Tuesday."
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/new-jihadist-group-sends-reinforcements-northwest-aleppo/

Seamus Padraig

Are they trying to get Syria partitioned? Is that why they're in a hurry to beat Russia and Syria to Raqqa? AFAIK, the Russians have not reacted publicly to this, but the initial reaction from the Syrians seem to be hostile ... or at least suspicious.

sid_finster

I have no insider knowledge or special insight, but explain to me, in light of the link I provided, how I am wrong.

turcopolier

sid_finster

Why should I? I stated my position. pl

turcopolier

Vietnamvet

Why should they? Did they announce the Overlord plan to the public in 1944? pl

1664RM

I have one question to pose.

Has the United States or any of it's alleged coalition of some 60 nations (who are they) sought the permission of the SARG to conduct ANY form of military operation inside Syria? Has any consensus for this military action been sought at the UN?

Thought not.

I see Turkey is here already. Turkey had Mosul in the bag for months before withdrawing, leaving the trap set with Al Qaeda in Iraq in place for the Iraqi Army.

So all we are watching here is a continuation of the stated policy that predates the DJT presidency - the 'Balkanization' of Syria, now simply by alternative means.

The stated aim of the 'Empire' is still to topple Assad.

DJT stated not so very long ago before he became POTUS that he thought that any form of larger commitment of combat forces into Syria would be a mistake; a mistake that he believed that Russia would pay a high price for because they would get bogged down.

Well folks, Russia is still there, not bogged down & DJTs A Team of generals are falling back on the old plans & I sniff mission creep in the air again.

Another illegal invasion is taking place - I was in the tip of the spear in 01' & 03' so don't for a minute think I don't understand what I am saying.

Per Mare Per Terram

Willybilly

You're right in your assessment, plus, SAA doesn't need to poke Erdogan some more right now.....since all the boys in Idleb province are his troops, wholly controlled Takfiris on the loose, courtesy of Hakan Fidan and MIT....
It can wait for while.....

Stonevendor

Do we have the capability of taking Raqqa? With enough men and materiel that is probably so. It will likely get very bloody, but these are determined troops. I don't doubt they can kill and/or capture many members of the IS. I also can recall apartments from my college days when I would walk into the kitchen at night, flip the light switch and see the roaches scatter. I suspect that there will be IS members who go to ground and wait for another day. There is no eliminating IS completely. Not until the support from Riyadh stops. The question I keep asking myself is what happens after the fall of Raqqa? Are we going to play Sheriff? Who will constitute the government? We did a quick job of overrunning Baghdad and then things began to got messy.

Hood Canal Gardner

VV: Indeed..way too many Qs. As for the old boy being given a "wave".. doubtfull that Mattis could feel it. Punt.

turcopolier

HCG
I don't understand you. Mattis knows that he is Trumps deputy to be dismissed at will. pl

turcopolier

Stonevendor

Do you want to fight to defense shared civilization or do you wan to surrender to the medievalists? Make your choice or shut up. pl

turcopolier

willybilly

No. It should already have been dealt with. pl

turcopolier

1664RM

This is not a matter for lawyers. If you want to argue like that, argue inside the US. pl

The Twisted Genius

sid_finster,

Yes, Assad has called us invaders of Syria. Unlike the Russians, Iranians, Hezbollah and recent Iraqi air strikes we are not in Syria at the invitation of the legitimate Syrian government. Nor are the Turks. The YPG/SDF certainly seems agreeable to our being there, but I doubt that makes it legal under international law. We are there illegally, although the AUMF probably satisfies our national laws, to destroy IS and kill jihadis. I hope that personal declaration makes you happy. I'm totally fine with every aspect of it.

As to your idea that we just traded our FSA unicorns for the much more effective YPG/SDF to act as our "Assad must go" surrogates, I think that's a valid concern. If that's our plan, then Trump's ass is borg through and through and we are all as stupid as the day is long to allow that policy to stand. We should leave as soon as the jihadi scum are nothing more than corpses rotting in the desert sand. With luck, the R+6 will accept some Green Berets in the area to assist in demobilizing/integrating the YPG/SDF into the SAA.

JMH

They are there with the de facto permission of the SAG, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

1664RM

Surely it IS a matter for lawyers.

Or is the US & its grand coalition once again above International Law.

It IS a matter of International Law, it is also a matter of US Law. When was the deployment of US Military Force last debated inside the Senate or Congress?

Like many people around here I served my nation faithfully, I believed that it was always backed up by the rule of International Law, this has however been proved to be wrong. Or are we mere warrior just meant to grasp the gladio, ruck up & move out without question?

Once again an independent nation has its sovereignty violated, Al Qaeda were not in Iraq when I stepped of the tailgate of that CH47 on the night of 20 Mar 2003. Nor were they in any way or shape or form like they are now when we were chasing them through the Mountains of the Ghan' in 2001 & 2002.

For anyone to deny who has been the finance & training behind this constantly metastasizing & metamorphosing force that is Al Qaeda in Syria & Iraq is to deny the earth is actually a globe itself. The plan to use them as the proxy to topple & balkanize Syria has failed.

Now it's back to Plan B which is really a re-branded plan A, which was ditched as a result of the debacles in Iraq & Afghanistan.

(Plan B saw the creation of Al Queda like forces in places like Iraq which were moved & morphed in to Al Qaeda in Syria in all its various names & guises inclusive of rebels & opposition forces to act as a proxy to destabilize & topple the SARG)

You can only cover a pig in lipstick so many times. Pig is rather apt.

We are now back on Plan B which was Plan A.

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