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14 March 2017

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Annem

Making Israel safe from the danger posed by Hezbollah and any other Iran-backed fighters that might threaten the state is central to the terms for settling the Syria conflict. To that end, Israel and Jordan are supposedly planning to protect their border zones with the help of the “Southern Front,” a group made up of the southern Syrian tribes that were trained in Jordan with US and Jordanian help and Saudi funding. Israel will not accept SAA or Hezbollah in the Golan.
Does anyone know just what groups this “Southern Front” is made up of and whether it includes any of the Nusra jihadis that Israel was providing medical treatment for? Whoever they are, be sure that the Druze militias in Suwayda will not welcome them on their turf.

turcopolier

Annem

You understand what Israel wants. The question is if this exceeds their grasp. Have you spent a lot of time in Israel? pl

turcopolier

Annem

I remember going up to the "good fence," crossing and meeting with South Lebanese Army leaders when Danny Rothschild was their guardian and shepherd. What makes you think that the buffer you speak of on the Golan's east side will work any better. pl

b

"A re-run of Israel's 2006 plan will prove nothing ..."

It will prove a significant quantitative and qualitative increase in Hizbullah's capabilities. An attack on Lebanese civilian infrastructure would be responded to with similar attacks on critical points of Israeli infrastructure. When Tel Aviv sits in the dark for a few days, with little water, airport closed, harbor blockaded, the Israeli government that started the fight will immediately fall.
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Currently ISIS and Nusra share parts of the Golan and the strip to the Jordan border. The Jordan controlled FSA aka Southern Front is shrinking and can barely hold against them. If Israel hopes to happily live with AQ and ISIS right next to it, it is in for a few surprises.

Someone will need to "clean up" the area. The Syrian government and its supporting forces are likely the only ones who can. That is a task that currently has low priority from the Syrian view. When it finally happens Israel will have to live with it.

Willybilly

You bet he did..... I Loooove the new headline for Al-Nusra head shoppers and liver eaters.... " Southern Front " Syrian tribes..... it's a cutie beautie!!! Let IDF succeed in keeping the Galilée....before leveling stupid threats.

mike

One news item that may be driving Naftali's madness is Breitbart and Haaretz and the al-Jarida newspaper that the IRGC is building rocket factories for Hez in Lebanon. I don't know whether the reports are BS or not. But they are out there. So they are probably driving Naftali bonkers, along with Bibi and the rest of the right-wing crazies over there.

Kooshy

Well,what can I say, me thinks, the day that Israelies feel/ need to rely and trust any arab tribe or not for thier border security must be an acute day of desperation or a without any better choice, frankly a laughable plan. You must not be avare of European imigrant ashkenazi Jews and Sunni Arabs, specially the border Arabs. The relationship of ashkenazi Jews and Sunni Arabs is not any better than that of Persians and arabs, if not a few notches up. As they say good luck with that plan.

Mishkilji

"Making Israel safe from the danger posed by Hezbollah and any other Iran-backed fighters that might threaten the state is central to the terms for settling the Syria conflict."

Why is this the case?

Hizballah existed before the Syrian civil war, and took root in a conflict in the 80s largely of Israel's making.

I smell a different agenda here.

Kooshy

FYI, as far as I know Arabs are not very forgiving or forgetting people.

FourthAndLong

The US, Britain, Saudis and Gulfies now have the Israelis back, so a reasonable guess would be that on a scale of a decade or so the Lebanon-Israel front and Southfront will not be allowed to go ballistic. The potential for very serious damage would see diplomatic intervention, bone-chilling threats and all, before that. But since NB Bennett has shot his mouth off already I wouldn't wager too much against it. Maybe he has to be told just how extremely ugly it could get for everyone. The accumulated firepower boggles the mind. Mutual suicide to tempt those fates. The example of Syria is not comforting.

turcopolier

FourthAndLong

IMO you greatly underestimate what I have called the demonic forces in Man's nature. A crisis in international relations moves fast. but, the idea that Saudi Arabia and the Gulfies are effective friends of Israel ina crisis is amusing and suggests that you think of international relations in absolutes. pl

Larry Kart

"IMO you greatly underestimate what I have called the demonic forces in Man's nature."

If there is one thing that's been said here over all these many years that deserves never to be forgotten, "the demonic forces in Man's nature" might be it.

turcopolier

Larry Kart

I suppose that is Nietzsche talking through me? Or maybe ... ? pl

jonst

Didn't we go through something like this before? Shades of the SLA.....

Mercenaires, man, a nation can't depend, too much, on that kind of support.

And Hezbollah has gotten much more experienced in this kind of fighting.

Lemur

The end of the Syrian War in the government's favour could well precipitate a Lebanese-Israeli war. Having failed to knock out the Syrian link of the perceived 'Iran threat', they will go straight for the immediate threat in Lebanon.

This time, however, the Russian Bear's diplomatic and military assets might shamble over from Damascus and shut down the caper. Reasons include:

1. Syria and Iran will support Hezbollah and the Lebanese government, which could mean Israeli escalation against Syria.
2. Russian plans for becoming involved in extracting offshore gas deposits in the Med.
3. Internal pressure on Putin by the Orthodox Church to protect Christians in Lebanon.
4. A general war against Lebanon will trigger a period of extended instability that could reignite conflict in Syria.

What would a Russian intervention look like? Russia seals Lebanese airspace, and sends troops to set up a buffer zone on the border and guarantee Hezbollah will stop firing projectiles.

FourthAndLong

I guess you are right about that. I tend to think of it as a chess game. Leads me to think I fathom capabilities in an abstract sense. Weapons and troop strength argued against Hitler moving into the Rhineland. As did his generals. We do seem to agree on NB being off his rocker though. Seems to be a feature of Israeli politics for some time now.

There's also the element of luck and likelihood that an opponent will be intimidated by apparently demonic or reckless-madman action. In the Rhineland Hitler pulled it off, as the French inexplicably folded. Cowardice may exemplify the demonic as much as does overconfidence. Liddell Hart mentions a Belgian Officer who begged permission of French commanders to cut down oak trees along a road used by German tanks in 1940 on their way to Calais and Dunkirk. Hart claims an affirmative response to the proposed blockade would have stopped that instance of a successful blitzkrieg cold. A God-awfully huge number of variables.

My dad did not set much store in ideas like the Maginot line or Hitler's reckless ingenuity vis a vis the French in WWII. He simply repeated "they lost the creme of their manhood in the Great War and were a spent force ... ."

Excuse my maundering Sir. You've set me to thinking. If there aren't perhaps similarly very obscure details pertinent to the case of Israel Lebanon etc.

inda

Mike I do believe this is a good case of "fake news". It originated in a Kuwaiti newspaper with ties to Israel

inda

I was in Beirut in 70 or 71 (yes I know that makes me ancient) when the Isrealis bombed the Beirut Airport. They were up and running the next day. It was the Palestinians then - just sayin.

John LeDell

My nephew is a Captain in the Golani Brigade, some of Israel's best fighters. He was in Lebanon fighting the Hezballah the last timeand there is no one in the Brigade who wants to do that again. In fact, the entire command structure of the Golani is so hesitant to fight the Hez again, my nephew suspects that timidness will make Israeli forces even less effective than the last time. Israeli culture makes losing even a single IDF soldier a terrible tragedy, not a good situation for fighting an aggressive war.

paul

i think both countries have a bit of a paranoia, correctly in the ability for the patron to really interfere in their affairs if we chose to.

Larry Kart

Another way to put it: My best friend's wife -- also a good friend and a very wise woman -- always says "people ruin everything."

BTW, she's not misanthropic on an individual basis; I take her mantra to mean that when people operate collectively and with a self-justfying rationale, the damage they can do knows no bounds.

The Twisted Genius

If it comes to blows again between Israel and Lebanon, it's bound to be a slugfest with massive civilian damage on both sides. The problem for Israel is that the Lebanese will suck it up, endure the misery and destruction and then rebuild. A lot of the Israelis will take the first plane out of there to a safer life in Europe or the U.S. once the rockets start falling. The Israelis can't afford losing a lot of their more productive citizens. The settlers will stay, but just suckle at the government teat and add nothing to society. In a destructive stalemate, Israel loses.

mike

Inda -

Fake news or not, it is driving the wingnuts crazy. Both here and in Israel. Breitbart strikes again.

Phil Cattar

The Israelis do not even trust us(The United States).They certainly will not depend on the Saudis or UAE to have their back............They may try to use them like they use us...........Good luck with that too.

Phil Cattar

That is why the Greeks called them Phoencians ,after the mythical bird that could not be killed.It just rose up again and again.It is in the Lebanese DNA...................

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