David's Sling, Iron Dome and Israeli Hegemony

"David’s Sling, meant to counter medium-range missiles possessed by Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, will be operational in early April.

This marks the completion of Israel’s missile defense system, he said.

That includes the Arrow, designed to intercept ballistic missiles in the stratosphere from long-range threats like Iran and Iron Dome that defends against short-range rockets from Gaza. The official spoke anonymously in line with protocol.

Israeli deployed its Arrow system Friday when Syria fired missiles at its jets on a mission to destroy a weapons convoy bound for Hezbollah."  Washpost

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The deployment of this system will mark a turning point.  As I have written on SST many times Israel has been deterred since 2006 from attacks on the Tabouleh Line -2 (Hizbullah missile and rocket systems).  This system plus Iron Dome may change that calculus altogether and Israel may become a great deal more aggressive not only in Lebanon but over Syria as well while  looking to demonstrate the cost of any resistance to Israeli military power and political hegemony.  pl 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/israels-multi-layer-defense-system-fully-operational-soon/2017/03/20/4f6b6024-0d7f-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html?utm_term=.46922512d18e

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David%27s_Sling

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome

Comments

[Pundita]

Bingo.

[A.Pols]

Eventually they will lose their sponsorship and they will be all alone.
Not this year or next, but eventually.
They are now at the stage where it's "the end of the beginning".

[J]

Seems that Israel's memory is that of a fast food junkie, short and empty.

So soon how Israel forgets Putin's stern warning back in late January to both Israel and Saudi that Russia is prepared to and will USE Tactical Nukes in response to the invasion of Syria.

http://realnienovosti.com/v-mire/1485830428.html

IMO our POTUS Trump needs to think long and hard about re-sending in U.S./NATO Troops into the Mideast/Syrian quagmire. Neither Israel or the Mideast is worth the loss of American lives. If the Europeans (NATO) want to be stupid, that's their problem, not our U.S. problem. We can't be the world policeman, the price is too high.

[Zachary Smith]

It seems to me there is a real possibility that Hezbollah's missiles could have become a lot more active since the last round. If that is the case, Israel may be starting something it'll end up wishing it hadn't.

[Willybilly]

The Tabbouleh-003 has many tricks up its sleeves as well.... and saturation is only one such tactic, let them come, they will be turned into Kafta

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

Like most things, unpleasantries are skirted around in order to get along. No more so than in Syria. The hubris that governments can be dismantled without any blowback is the foundation of the neo-liberal-con ideology although this is never mentioned by corporate media. The question is how to get the new world order policies associated with their consequences. American support of Israel and Saudi Arabia has resulted in flows of refugees into Europe that will destroy the Atlantic Alliance just as surely as a Third World War with Russia.

The great game in Syria remains to keep the Shiite Crescent cut and attrite Hezbollah plus war profiteering. Is Israel willing to gamble that their missile shield is 100% effective? Volunteer wars have a history of going bad.

[Frank]

I can't remember the exact figures but there are some statistics out there comparing rockets launched and resulting deaths before Iron Dome was implemented and after. Essentially from a statistical standpoint Iron Dome did absolutely nothing.

I can't speak for the other systems, but in my opinion Iron Dome is there to give Israelis the illusion of protection. It's easier to convince more squatters to come live there when you can "promise" their safety.

[Norbert M Salamon]

Iron Dome was reported to be 5% efficient in the last "war". A few David's Sling is not going to make any major impact versus the 50000 or so Hezbollah rockets and/or missiles.

[DavidKNZ]

There is some suggestion the 'Iron Dome' may not be as effective as claimed:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/528991/an-explanation-of-the-evidence-of-weaknesses-in-the-iron-dome-defense-system/

Naturally this report attracted vehement criticism, particularly by those seeking further funding. However the author, Professor Theodore Postol is technically competent, so the matter may well be settled in the sky.

"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth." - Mike Tyson

[Sam Peralta]

Col. Lang

I believe you are spot on and that Bibi and the Likudniks that run Israel will feel emboldened or be pushed into acting by their own extreme domestic politics.

Russia and the US will face their own acid test as a consequence.

Will Russia allow Israel to act with impunity in Syria? If they do that, saying that it will not interfere in Israeli/Hezbollah/Iran/Syria/Lebanon conflict, then it is likely it will escalate and cause deep divisions among the R+6. And that may prompt Nasrallah with Iranian instigation to test these Israeli missile defense systems. Russia then may be forced to take a stand?

The test for the US will come if an IAF aircraft get's shot down by either a Russian or Syrian missile OR if the conflict with Hezbollah escalates to the point that Hezbollah fires rockets/missiles into Israel. How will President Trump respond when our media, the establishment of both parties and our neocons go hysterical?

[b]

While Israel may feel protected with these systems they all have significant systematic and technical deficiencies.

1. Their number is limited and they can be overwhelmed by volleys. Hizb has a huge arsenal of missiles and demonstrated at the end of the 2006 war that it can fire hundreds in a volley. (August 14 2006 250 missiles within an hour or so)
2. The cost for a missile defense projectile is far higher than the cost of the missile it defends against. The monetary disadvantage for the defender is very significant.
3. Missiles which change their trajectory in flight make these unpredictable and very difficult to hit. Modern electronics make trajectory changing capabilities relatively easy to implement.
4. Missile defense currently depends on active radars and favorable weather. The radars can be detected and hit themselves. The weather can change suddenly (sandstorms in Saudi Arabia currently open a window for Houthi missile attacks.)

My guess is that Israel would not attack Russian forces.
If it would attack Hizbullah it would soon learn that the protection of its missile defense system is more porous than anticipated. The strategic advantage it gives may soon turn out to be nil.

[Eliot]

Col. Lang,

Has the science changed? These systems generally have a low success rate, no?

- Eliot

[walrus]

I would imagine that if Israel is prudent, it will mount a series of "test" operations to provoke a limited response from its targets.

Wouldn't it demonstrate extreme chutzpah to rely on an unproven system?

[Stumpy]

Is this the Trump effect? Is the USA finally deep enough in the pocket that Israel feels complete impunity? How many rounds can she go?

[turcopolier]

eliot
Yes. Performance is always less than wonderful. Look at Iron Dome. pl

[turcopolier]

b

Yes. These systems are limited in effectiveness but that does not mean that the Israelis will not persuade themselves otherwise and do something rash. Look at their fantasizing on the performance of Iron Dome. pl

[Thirdeye]

It's kind of unclear to me how such a test would work. How could Israel predict the threshold of a Hizbullah missile response, and what the scale of such a response would be? Big risks!

[BraveNewWorld]

By some thing rash do you mean like trying to illegally annex a part of Lebanon? That should help get a war started.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4938035,00.html

More war, war war. A lot of delusion in this article. Syrian industrial centre in the North? Northern Syria was stripped by the Turks of of any manufacturing technology. Syrian want to move new missiles built in the north to Lebanon and decide to do it by way of Palmyra? Lies Israelis like to tell themselves and others.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4938012,00.html

Or things are quiet with Hamas so Israelis feel they need to start another war there.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4936294,00.html

But remember this is ALL about Iranian aggression.

[Yeah, Right]

b: "Missiles which change their trajectory in flight make these unpredictable and very difficult to hit."

Not just "difficult to hit".

The economics of Israel's missile defence relies on their ability to predict the fall-of-shot, so that a missile that is going to hit open ground is ignored and an interceptor is not wasted.

But if missiles can change trajectory mid-flight then that all goes out the window - the Israelis will have to consider the possibility that a missile that is being ignored can suddenly jag towards a populated area, and by the time this change is detected it is too late to intercept.

A game-changer indeed.

[Joe100]

OT, but does anyone know why Larry Johnson's blog has been down most of the day?

[Babak Makkinejad]

Not going to happen.

[Matt]

Hi,

my apologies for cutting in but Larry Johnsons site/blog is now listed as unavailable in the UK,

is this also the case in the USA?

Sorry, the website www.noquarterusa.net cannot be found.

[FkDahl]

Postol did not make himself popular by undressing that silly man "Brown Moses" and his psyops site Bellingcat, regarding the Ghouta gas attack.

[Bandolero]

PL

To me WaPo printing this piece after the problematic Israeli Palmyra raid looks more like Israeli whistling in the dark than Israeli assertiveness.

The "less than wonderful" performance of missile defence is well known, and now, suddenly, not now, but already in April, next month, the performance of Israeli missile defence shall be wonderful?

I doubt it.

To me that report looks more like "we were very surprised our jets were on Syrian radars so they could fire back at us, and it wasn't all wonderful for us in Israel and it isn't now, but already next month, believe us, our technicians will have the 'Wunderwaffe' ready and it will be all wonderful again."

[charly]

Missile system is meant for Hamas, not Hezbollah, and it works against Hamas. It also can stop a third party false flag launched from Lebanon assuming it is small and it forces Iran into follies if they want to hit Israel with rockets launched from Iran. All are big advantages for Israel. That it doesn't work against Hezbollah is likely true but you can't have everything