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23 March 2017

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Dmcna

Does anyone know of the degree of Turkish support for this offensive? Or whether it has been bolstered by any new delivery of weapons? Without either they have not succeeded in the past. The offensive could bring the focus back from the war to the needs of peace and prime amongst these is the clearing of the road to Aleppo.

Willybilly

You're right all along.... Idleb risks being another Iskadaroun province.... the eyes of Sultan Erdogan are upon it and it ain't looking good

turcopolier

Dmcna & Willybilly

The Turkish intelligence channel support for this is rather likely. the significance of the announced Russian future base at Afrin in Kurdish held territory on the north flank of Idlib is unclear to me. pl

Willybilly

As far as I can tell, Russians have denied any basing in Afreen....

Red Cloud

I suppose one could argue that instead of recapturing Palmyra the SAA should have focused on Idlib.

The same argument cannot be made for the advance in East Aleppo though. The water supplies to Aleppo absolutely had to be secured - there was just no other option. You can't keep moving everyone back to their homes and rebuild the city if there's not enough water.

I bet the Syrian Government was trying to get some gas flowing again to relieve some of the shortages. I'm just glad I don't have to make these decisions.

ToivoS

I have difficulty second guessing the SAA when they agreed to let all of those al Qaida fighters go to Idleb after they had been surrounded in various locations around Aleppo and Damascus. Those Islamist fighters have proven over and over again that they will die to the last man defending their positions as defined by their Imans. Destroying them by force would mean sacrificing many SAA soldiers. Of course,letting them go meant that were available to fight another day. It seemed reasonable to me that concentrating them into Idleb might make it easier to take care of them with artillery and bombing. Also it might allow the individual soldiers to rethink their commitment to Jihad and decide they didn't have to die. And maybe try to escape to Turkey and try to find another life.

In any case those R+6 guys had to make a very difficult decision. I suspect that Russia and Iran were thinking that they might convince Turkey to stop supplying those jihad forces and thereby weakon those concentrated forces in Idleb.

turcopolier

toivoS

"might make it easier to take care of them with artillery and bombing." That does not work. It never works. Given the chance to recover in a territory under bombardment a population and armed force recover their equilibrium and resume operations. On a grand scale Germany in WW2was under tremendous bombardment from US/British strategic air and continued to produce military materiel and to resist effectively. In fact it was able to generate a very large force for the Ardennes Offensive and for an effective air defense to include fielding the first operational jet fighters. territory must be occupied and forces defeated for victory to be achieved. pl

Lemur

hats off to you Col., you saw this one coming for quite some time.

I wonder if launching the campaign from Aleppo into Idlib, which has been in the works for some time, would take pressure off the Hama front, or should all spare resources be committed to reversing Jihadi gains there?

turcopolier

Lemur

I generally favor the indirect approach, so I would think that is where thre main attack should come from with secondary attacks from the west and south as TTG and I envisioned in the "Borders of Hatay" war game. pl

b

Agree with Red Cloud - water for Aleppo and gas from Palmyra surroundings were critical to the overall effort of the Syrian state. They had absolute priority.

The Hama offensive, coordinated with an attack in east-Ghouta/Damascus and Deraa is a "Hail-Mary" by Turkey and the Gulf. They need something to have a role in the negotiations. Pictures were published of trucks delivering new missiles to the Jihadis. These must have come from Turkey. Anyway these offensives are now contained. They will be rolled back in few days or weeks.

I for one had expected a bigger run by al-Qaeda and their "vetted moderate rebels" consorts. This is still a relatively small attack in brigade+ size - not the all out last stand of their whole force. Though one wonders how much that force has been decimated by the constant air attacks of the Syrian/Russian air forces as well as defections towards a presumably better land.

turcopolier

b

"Anyway these offensives are now contained." Are they? We will now see. pl

Larry M.

Col. Lang,

You have been proven right that failure to follow up the recapture of East Aleppo with an offensive into Idlib was a mistake by R+6, but I also agree with some of the commenters here that the decisions R+6 have to make are very difficult. As someone said on an earlier thread, the SAA is basically playing whack-a-mole, darting from Aleppo to Palmyra to Hama, because it is so desperately short of men.

Tens of thousands of Syrians who could have filled the ranks of the SAA are now in Germany and other E.U. countries, applying for asylum or already settling in, thanks to Frau Merkel's "Wir können es schaffen" which they correctly understood as meaning "Welcome". Others are in refugee camps in Turkey, but for the military situation in Syria, the result is the same: the war drags on because the SAA is too weak to finish off Al Qaeda, ISIS and the other jihadis.

turcopolier

LarryM

I am good at war, not always right but good at it. It is a shame to be good at something so cruel and destructive. BTW I do not believe in the reality of bloodless wars won by cleverness and maneuver. pl

Thirdeye

Quite fortunate that ISIS gave up Deir Hafir, giving more options on deployment of the Tiger Force. My guess is that they traveled light to get out of Dodge quickly and abandoned a lot of supplies. The Jirah airbase and the remainder of the Al Jar canal might be meaningful objectives, but the value of seizing Maskanah in the immediate future doesn't seem to warrant much priority, especially with the developments in Hama.

turcopolier

b et al

IMO it is s basic error in contriving and executing a military strategy to abandon during the war the objective to which one's efforts were originally directed. This is quite different than the planning or execution of a campaign or a battle. In these efforts a maximum of flexibility is desirable. Not so in the overall conduct of the war which as has been said, the war is a continuation of national policy. As an example Hitler lost track of the basic idea that in Barbarossa the national purpose that he had in mind was the destruction of the USSR and Soviet communism, not the seizure of Ukrainian agricultural lands, not the Donbas industrial basin, not he petroleum of the north slop of the Caucasus. Because he lost track of the basic objective of the war he allowed the Red Army time and space in which to re-build itself and eventually crush the inherently smaller forces of Germany, especially since Germany had to divert military resources to such other diversions as France, Italy, etc. In the case of Syria the national objective has to be to complete the was in control of as much of the population in essential (i.e., western) Syria as possible. BTW don't kid yourself about any sort of negotiation as a means of achieving an outcome to the war. The Syria government knows that if they are negotiated out of power they are dead men, one way or another. The rebels want noting but to achieve that end. All the Syrians know that and are just telling the foreigners what they must to appease them. In that light, no amount of water for Aleppo City, or petroleum that can eventually be exploited again make up for an advantage that was achieved by victory at Aleppo City that has been given up to Turkish adventurism across an open border at Hatay and resurgent jihadi/uicorn efforts in Hama and the east Damascus suburbs. Also BTW I have no "convictions" about any of this. The word connotes some sort of emotional involvement in analysis. pl

Bandolero

pl

I disagree with your opinion that this "offensive directed to the south from Idlib is the fruit of that badly flawed decision on the part of R+6."

My opinion is that this jihadi offensive north of Hama is good for the R+6. The jihadis are proud they have already "liberated" 120 km2 with this offensive. But what I see is that many terrorists have left their human shield cover in the Idlib pocket. With this offensive a large chunk of terrorists claiming to be part of this jihadi offensive moved into freshly conquered territory void of any other human being. While in villages and towns of Idlib province it is difficult for the R+6 to hit terrorists hard while completely avoiding to harm civilians in the areas newly conquered by the terrorists north oh Hama it is easy. In these areas there are only terrorists, the population ran completely away when the terrorists conquered the villages.

The terrorists claim about 6500 men are taking part in this offensive. These terrorists all want absolutely no peace, but die in combat. The Syrian army and their partners now have a great opportinity to fulfill many of them their wish without any civilians being caught in the middle - and the R+6 can use any heavy weapon in the arsenal as much as they want to accomplish that.

After many of these 6500 hardcore terrorist elements met their creator the pacification of the Idlib province will likely become a lot easier.

Peter AU

The sultan and his dreams... I notice he is quite interested in the S-400 Putin has dangling like a carrot on a stick. Also he may be wondering if NATO will back him up if he gets plastered in Syria.

FkDahl

In Donbass the Ukrainian mechanized thrusts were ground down after being cut off and then decimated with artillery, but it was always the Ukrainians attacking. I would hope SAA and friends have this scenario in mind and sufficient force to seal off the jihadist attack (this I doubt) and heavy firepower to annihilate the pocket. That heavy Russian rocket artillery is awe inspiring.

Thirdeye

The BM30 Smerch (Tornado) MLRS is in Syria and is used on special occasions. It was used to help drive ISIS out of Palmyra.

Babak Makkinejad

Equivalent of trade goods and glass beads of yore. US did the same thing with nuclear technology & India...quite successfully....and she did not have to deliver the beads in any case...

Once a Third Worlder, Always a Thrid Worlders...

Babak Makkinejad

Here is a report in Persian:

http://www.fardanews.com/fa/news/646586/%D8%AA%D9%88%D9%82%D9%81-%D9%BE%DB%8C%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%88%DB%8C-%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B6%DB%8C%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%B4%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%87-%D9%86%D9%82%D8%B4%D9%87-%D9%88-%DA%AF%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B4-%D8%AA%D8%B5%D9%88%DB%8C%D8%B1%DB%8C

Syrian soldiers fled rather than fight on the first day. The second day, their performance was reported to have been less than stellar but at least the front has been stabilized.

Ante

By the looks of the fighters, with full molle gear, kneepads, matching uniforms, and artillery, this combined with the attacks near Damascus feel like a Turkish/CIA plan B. Rebels are claiming victory in Hama, gov sources say the lines have mostly held with nusra taking some lightly defended villages.

Idlib is a cancer. The desire of the Syrians to retain their state by taking Deir e Zor and Raqqa is understandable, but as Pat has repeated, Idlib is a serious problem. The SAA could have at least put some pressure on them, Russia could have tried disrupting their lines from Turkey with bombing. We were all in general agreement.

Letting a harried and defeated enemy regroup and rearm for months is not a decision I understand.

turcopolier

ante

"feel like a Turkish/CIA plan B. Rebels are claiming victory in Hama, gov sources say the lines have mostly held with nusra taking some lightly defended villages." Unless I learn otherwise I doubt that CIA continues to provide support for the AQ and unicorn groups. I would think that Trump has called them off. Pompaio ought to be able to do that. pl

Red Cloud

I would just like to point out that if the R+6 can reverse these gains in Hama without the head-choppers reaching the city they have accomplished what no one believed they could.

They will have secured water supplies to Aleppo, cut off Erdogan's forces in northern Aleppo, taken Deir Hafer and Palmyra and held them, repelled a massive assault in Qaboun/Ghouta, held Deir Ezzor, and contained the Idlib head-choppers all at the same time.

^ Did anyone here actually think all of that was possible?

Bandolero

Babak

I see no contradiction here. AFAIK the SAA calls this as elastic their defense concept. What worries me is that - if such reports are true - some Syrian civilians and military people were still surprised and avoidable victims of this terrorism happened.

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