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22 March 2017

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Phodges

10 years of peace is too much for the Israelis apparently.

Well. I would like to see them get their ass kicked again.

Phodges

On the other hand after looking I have not seen any reports of these strikes from the usual sources. So I prefer to hope it is jihadi agitprop and that the Israelis will respect some balance of power in their north.

Willybilly

We hope they try again... with all their might and Schwarzkopf tactics.... they will be turned into minced meat in a grinder.

b

I doubt that these "airstrike" reports are true. There was fighting in the area with big VBIED exploded by the al-Qaeda attackers and responding artillery. The reports comes from "rebels" who saw those big bangs. The rest is made up.

I don't think that Putin will issue empty threats. If he said no-go he means no-go and likely has the ideas prepared on what to do when his advice is not followed.

(no longer in) Istanbul Guy

I think this particular attack claim was debunked. Picture seems to be from a 2013 attack. (https://twitter.com/zaidbenjamin/status/330822215199240192)

turcopolier

james

You are basically a victim of Marxist indoctrination. You are deluded in this Trilateral commission, Bilderberg bullshit. "would there be a chance that those neo cons where helped to be in the positions they were by these same corporations?" No. They were placed in power by the machinations of the Zionist/AIPAC lobby. pl

Jack

Sir

Bibi knows in the current hysteria Trump is already compromised with the MSM perception that he is an agent of Russia. There's no way he can side with Putin if the Russians shoot down an Israeli aircraft. So, Putin has to tread carefully considering the absolute hysterical response by the Israeli Firsters and the hyper-ventilation of our Likudnik sympathizing MSM. The probability of moving on to the escalatory ladder is very high. Consequently Russia can't enforce the defense of Syrian airspace. Bibi being the brinksman that he is knowing the poodle has no choice but to back him for domestic political reasons will continue to push against the line.

plantman

Colonel, Is Netanyahu trying to lure Russia deeper into the Syrian war so that Trump will deploy more troops to defend against (fake) Russian aggression?

This all smells very fishy to me.

Why would Israel wait 6 years before it launched an air campaign?
Something is going on that we don't know about.

Could you comment on this?

FourthAndLong

Off topic but related on a different note:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-21/belarus-is-the-latest-thorn-in-putin-s-side?wpisrc=nl_todayworld&wpmm=1

Laura

Colonel -- Have you seen this? Would love to know your take on this article. Sounds quite Byzantine and, for Mattis, frustrating as hell. Normal?

Laura

Laura

Col--oops...here is the link: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/mattis-defense-hill-republicans-obama-236329

Peter in Toronto

The Russians simply lack the capability to enforce any credible threats against Israeli aviation - both the Americans and Jews know this and their actions reflect this fact. Sure, they can deny a chunk of airspace under the coverage of a few of their more recent SAM batteries, but to pursue and deter strike groups is not tenable, since the Israeli aircraft have far more sophisticated air-to-air missiles and sensors as well as data-sharing and jamming systems.

The Syrian Army has also been a most disappointing partner on the ground. Taking flight at the slightest hint of confrontation. I think their patience is wearing thin and they will be looking for some politically expedient exit strategy.

But I'm just a dilettante observer.

LondonBob

Trump irritated.

Mattis furious.
Tillerson exasperated.
Putin pissed.

Trump respects and listens to or watches all three of those.

Tillerson said the administration expects that, “as time goes by, there will be fewer military conflicts that the U.S. will be directly engaged in."

Lemur

it's no secret the SAA is a sub-average force excepting elite units (Republican Guard, 4th Division, Tiger Forces, etc). Since they can't be everywhere, the war takes on the character of a whack-a-mole game.

If it comes to deterring Jewish raids, I doubt the consequences will be primarily military. The Russian forces in Syria are rather exposed, far away from the networked, layered, dense air defence zones at home. Rather, we might see Russia visibly tilt toward the option of offering more support for Iran and Hezbollah. And that does scare Israel.

turcopolier

Lemur

In any army units vary in quality. You don't know that? pl

Lemur

sooner or later Russia will have to lay down the law on who is boss in Syria. As the war winds down, Israeli strikes will only increase as the perceived encroachment of the 'shia crescent' grows closer.

Alaric

I too suspect the Israelis are lying. The explosions were likely caused by rebels until proven otherwise. But Russia will simply green light and facilitate a Syrian response if Israel presses its luck. My understanding is that the ranks of Hezbollah and the Iranian military welcome an opportunity to kick Israel's butt again, even if it's indirect for the latter. Ditto for the Syrian Arab Army I'm sure, though they are tied up.

I suspect Russia also welcomes an opportunity to show off its air defenses against the IAF since a good showing will boost sales and send a message to NATO. Israel will suffer if it pushes this route. That would end Netanyahu's career and Netanyahu 's career (jail) prospects are likely a big part of this show of force.

Andy

I'm not sure I would call it defiance. Undoubtedly, Russia and Israel have some kind of understanding when it comes to Israeli activity in Syria and Northern Lebanon. Whether or not Israel has broken this understanding is unknown, but an indicator I would look for is movement of Russian air surveillance equipment south of Damascus.

Tel

Syrian forces and their local allies are spread way too thin already to be able to escalate. Israel can safely antagonize them without fear of a major reprisal (although always the risk of an aircraft getting shot down or something small like that).

Both sides are no doubt interested in knowing exactly what those Russian SAMs can do.

charly

A war between Israel and Syria would
a) lead to a Syrian mobilization
b) would allow many rebels to come in from the cold, especially now that the war has been lost.
c) Allows the diaspora to come back

I don't know if it in the end would be bad for the Syrian government

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