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24 March 2017

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Peter AU

Whatever it will be, the "what then" is always interesting with Putin.

MasterSlacker

Small dogs make the most noise. It just an opinion but I'm pretty sure Vlad has already prepared Bibi's leash holder with adequate compensation to avoid a real fight.

Red Cloud

In that scenario I think the S300 and S400 would actually be used to shoot down a couple Israeli jets with authority. Not some mysterious event where no one is really sure what happened. I mean evidence of downed aircraft and pilot either dead or captured.

Come to think of it couldn't the Russians just say it was the Syrians? Who could prove otherwise?

Lemur

Israel has escalation dominance in Syria, and for that reason I suspect the Russian response will be asymmetric. These are the options that come to my mind.

1. Increase the Russian military grouping in Syria to compensate for the damage Israel is doing.

2. Halt the Palmyra and Eastern Aleppo campaigns, and send the operational excess of troops to start a campaign in Southern Syria. Include Shia militia in the force. Announce the intention to secure the antebellum line of control with Israel. Intensively support the operation with RuAF strikes, such that if Israel were to hit these forces, they would have to do so right under the noses of Su-30s. That would send a stern message to Israel without directly antagonizing them.

3. Send Russian fighters on combat controls near the Israeli border within Syrian airspace after these sort of strikes.

4. Open talks with Iran and/or Syria for the sale of advanced weapons the Israelis would prefer them not to have.

5. Threaten to supply Hezbollah with advanced weaponry. Perhaps do it through the conduit of the new pro-Hezbollah administration in Lebanon if plausible deniability is desirable. The same message will be received in Tel Aviv.

6. Declare an attack on targets other than Hezbollah in Syria an act of war against a Russian ally.

7. Hold air defence firing drills in Syria.

Peter AU

An appropriate cartoon?
http://media.cagle.com/12/2014/03/12/145598_600.jpg

FourthAndLong

Bibi would appear to have surmised as much himself.

kooshy

Colonel meanwhile back in the ranch, it looks the recent London also was a traveler and residence of our and Brits good old ally The Saudis Arabia.


"Saudi Arabia says London attacker not on security radar"
Masood had been in the kingdom from November 2005 to April 2008 and worked as an English teacher, and also visited briefly in March 2015.

Read more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/03/saudi-arabia-says-london-attacker-not-security-radar/

kooshy

FYI, CBS "News" article published today 3/24 titled "What we know about the London terror attacker Khalid Masood" does not mention that the attacker Khalid Masood, who killed 4 innocent persons, spent some time (4 years ) in Saudi Arabia. Thanks god CBS and Al Borg is not blaming the attack on Putin, or the Iranians. Yet

Babak Makkinejad

Col. Lang:

"Bibi and Liberman are happy with themselves", just like Erdogan vis-a-vis EU and Russia.

These men are not statesmen, just convenience-store operators...how truly Middle Eastern all 3 are.

PeterHug

I think it's a bit of a binary solution set - either the S300/400 can't shoot these planes down, or eventually the Russians decide they've had enough of the Israeli silliness.

I would personally expect option number 2, and sooner rather than later.

ISL

Dear Colonel,

What is very worrisome is what happens if Israel keeps good on its promise to destroy Syrian Air defense systems. Could Israel overwhelm (at presumably great cost to its airforce) the S300/S400 system?

If so, this would presumably kill Russian soldiers and creates the potential of Russian retaliations against Israeli air defense and airports.

Willybilly

The leash was long enough for BiBi to hang himself.... he's getting there allright & No compensation either

ToivoS

Those s300 and s400 missiles have ranges of well over 100 km. What prevents one of these missiles tracking a commercial aircraft that might be in the area? Didn't Ukrainians accidentally shoot down Sibera Air's flight 1812 over the Black Sea while they were testing their earlier version of those missiles?

b

That alleged incident has not been confirmed by any of the (many) sources I follow. I doubt very much it happened at all. It is more likely pure propaganda and (domestic) chest beating by Netanyahoo and Lieberman to cover up that Putin told them to stand down.

I doubt that the U.S. military would intervene should Israel get one on the nose for such provocative behavior. Unlike other U.S. "enemies", Russia can bite back - if not in Syria or Iraq then in Afghanistan or elsewhere.

What is the U.S. going to do when the vaunted freedom fighters of Afghanistan, who Reagan once invited to the White House, suddenly find themselves with thousands of Kornet missile and other goodies like MANPADs? Will it lament about the ghastly "interference" of arming insurgencies in the Hindukush?

Stumpy

Sir,

The result of decades of bad foreign policy math. The dogs are off the leash. Whoever they bite, it's our (USA) liability. Seems ironic that the Bear may be the one to stand between the USA citizenry and our "loyal" intervention to preserve the zionist state from self-destruction. My question would be as to which way Jordan and Egypt fall, if the stakes go up.

confusedponderer

My impression with the Rusians is that you sucker them only once.

Then they'll learn and think, and that after that they will make you pay in punishment for sucker attempts.

A clear example is the case of the stalwart georgian patriot Saakashvili and his ambitionous idea to ... liberate South Ossetia from Russia and russian troops, and make it part of Georgia.

The Russians knew Saakashvili was coming, had well prepared and trained, fought hard and skillful.

As for learning and making pay hard the next time - they simply devastated the troops sent to South Ossetia. Reports said that in South Ossetia Russia destroyed the two georgian infantry brigades sent, and about all georgian artillery units. Ouch.

Notably, georgian troops have been trained by the US, and the georgians had equipment, for instance, from Israel. Being led by strategic genius like Saakashvili, a veteran of Soviet border troops, it didn't help.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1043236/Georgia-overrun-Russian-troops-scale-ground-invasion-begins.html

This embarassing defeat killed Saakashvili's third election as a georgian leader. IMO it is unlikely that Saakashvili attacked South Ossetia without beliving to have US backing, so I am scared to learn more of the sort of info he got when talking with Cheney and Bush.

The Russian-Georgian war heavily disappointed Dick Cheney who said the US should/could have repulsed Russia over this and he lamented that they didn't - which is actually GOOD.

I propose that not suckering and avoid of teaching and avoid the having to learn part is wise. It may have gotten lost on Cheney: Russia still is heavily armed and a nulear power. That 'repulsion' might have escalated to somehing really ugly quickly. Just saying.

Anyway, Saakashvili's defeat in South Ossetia and aditional criminal investigations in Georgia against him made him flee to Ukraine. There he got himself a ... ukrainian passport and became ... a ... a stalwart ukrainian patriot.

Until he quit over ... omnipresent corruption in Ukraine ... Saakashvili was commanding the Ukraine's Odessa 'oblast' as a governeur. Just as a comparison - in Georgia, there iirc only is an eleven years jail verdict waiting for him.

Saakashvili's fate reminds me of the japanese brilliant idea to attack Russians in Mongolia in 1939. There the japanese 'elite' Kwangtum Army met russians led by able general Georgy Zhukov. He knew very well what to do with them and so he heavily kicked the japanese into their sorry asses and painfully defeated them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battles_of_Khalkhin_Gol
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgy_Zhukov
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwantung_Army

After that punishment the japanese weren't willing to do any further attempts to attack Russia during W-II.

LeaNder

If true another horror scenario, no doubt.

Well, in his election campaign Trump strongly supported Israel's hawkish-anti-Iran position. On the other he only promised to 'extinguish' ISIS. References to the GWOT? On the surface regime chance doesn't seem to fit into his position. But no clear position on the proxies, it feels. The unicorns, as they are called here.

What do Trump supporters mean?

Terrrorism/"Enemy of Israel" - Trump never really picked up on the GWOT, did he? - other then blaming Obama to have created ISIS by pulling out US troupes:
Hizbollah surly is listed as Terrorist group. Are the Iranian Revolutionary Guards? Are they present on the ground.

Are Turkey and Israel indeed the close close chums these parallel rumors no doubt suggest?

LeaNder

That's why I couldn't have voted for her. Of course that's a more theoretical matter in my case.

I am not a fan of Jeffrey Goldberg, there is quite a bit of justification to call him Israel's mouthpiece. But, I somewhat liked his interview with Obama, not least because of this snippet:

Hillary Clinton, when she was Obama’s secretary of state, argued for an early and assertive response to Assad’s violence. In 2014, after she left office, Clinton told me that “the failure to help build up a credible fighting force of the people who were the originators of the protests against Assad … left a big vacuum, which the jihadists have now filled.” When The Atlantic published this statement, and also published Clinton’s assessment that “great nations need organizing principles, and ‘Don’t do stupid stuff’ is not an organizing principle,” Obama became “rip-shit angry,” according to one of his senior advisers. The president did not understand how “Don’t do stupid shit” could be considered a controversial slogan. Ben Rhodes recalls that “the questions we were asking in the White House were ‘Who exactly is in the stupid-shit caucus? Who is pro–stupid shit?’ ” The Iraq invasion, Obama believed, should have taught Democratic interventionists like Clinton, who had voted for its authorization, the dangers of doing stupid shit. (Clinton quickly apologized to Obama for her comments, and a Clinton spokesman announced that the two would “hug it out” on Martha’s Vineyard when they crossed paths there later.)

 jld

I am no military/political expert, not at all but...
The overall feeling I get from the Russians is that they are EXTREMELY careful in every endeavour and even if they come up with a very, very nasty retribution w.r.t. Israel or the US it will not look like one "from the outside", only the intended recipients will get the message, so, probably no MANPADS or Kornets.

Alaric

The Israeli military was unable to defeat Hezbollah. Picking a fight with Syria, Iran, Hezbollah AND Russia will end badly. What Israel wants is to be ISIS/al Qaida Air Force in Syria and they think they will do it with complete impunity. That is chutzpah all right but it ain't happening on any significant scale.

Israel's best bet is to pull turkey into a broader war in Syria. That plan is encouraged by all the other jihadists supporters too. Thing is I'm not sure Erdogan is really on board with that. Erdogan had limited objectives in Syria which have become very costly to obtain.

Babak Makkinejad

"that “great nations need organizing principles, .."

Someone should ask what makes a great nation.

Was Imperial Japan a great nation? Is China a great nations? Is Italy? Or the German Empire?

And this is what the best education that money can buy gets one - thinking in cliche and propaganda?


Babak Makkinejad

You cannot expect them to admit that the political allies of decades are in part responsible for what is transpiring in the world.

And then they are selling tons of weapons to the Gulfies, making good money.

Even Australia is selling weapons to Saudi Arabia while that country bombs a member of UN in good standing.

Babak Makkinejad

The Western Fortress is loath to admit defeat, in Ukraine, in Syria, in South Sudan, in Kosovo, in Bosnia, and in Libya; all splendid example of strategic failure - in my opinion - since the dissolution of USSR.

Nancy K

The news I've been reading mention the Saudi connection.

Heros

Below is a RT Crosstalk panel discussion about this event. Dan Arbell is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute and 25 year veteran of the Israeli veteran of Israeli Foreign service.

Arbell insists that Israel is justified and legally permitted to aggressively attack Syria because they "crossed Israel's red lines". He also talks about the right to self-defence, the same excuse given by the US for their aggressive and uninvited invasion of Syria. Nato's European partners (specifically Danemark, UK and Holland) and Australia have also been participating in these aggressive and illegal attacks against Syria.

When one listens to the arrogance of Arbell it becomes clear that international law and war crimes are irrelevant in Israel's eyes, and also in the eyes of the US. Sure, Israel firsters and America firsters can produce a load of blather about "self defense" and "RTP" and "War on Terror" but Syria has not attacked Nato, Israel or the US. Nor, to my knowledge has any Syrian citizen made a terror attack in these countries. Instead what we see (as in recent events in London, Paris, Brussels) is that these "terrorist" attacks are being perpetrated by home grown Islamists.

Instead it is Syria who being invaded and attacked by "terrorists" who are usually citizens of various European countries, and it is Israel that is giving medical assistance to these very same "terrorists" (I think they are special forces).

If any country is legally and morally justified in making pre-emptive attacks against its neighbors and other countries thousands of miles across the planet, It is Syria.

So what we have is a group of hegemonic powers that are acting out policy unrestrained by any laws, domestic or international. They are called outlaws.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtbIKuPjnLg

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