Wrath of Euphrates, Phase III - TTG

"ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — The US-led international coalition against ISIS provided its allies in Syria with armored vehicles, a spokesperson for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said and a US colonel confirmed. “The armored vehicles and troop carriers had arrived four or five days ago,” Talal Silo told Reuters on Tuesday. “Previously we didn't get support in this form, we would get light weapons and ammunition. There are signs of full support from the new American leadership, more than before, for our forces,” he added. 

Silo said the vehicles would be used to support the SDF’s ongoing offensive on ISIS-held Raqqa, which the extremist group claimed as its capital. The SDF is a coalition of forces including the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), the Syrian Arab Coalition, and Turkmen and Assyrian elements. During its campaign for Raqqa, the SDF has also added many local fighters to its ranks. 

The US-led coalition has been backing the SDF as a key ally on the ground fighting ISIS in northern Syria, providing advice, air support, and some arms. American officials, however, have been very clear that the arms they supply are to the Syrian Arab Coalition and not Kurdish forces, who are dominant members of the SDF. The US is balancing its support of the YPG and SDF with its alliance with fellow NATO member Turkey who considers the YPG to be a terrorist group with ties to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). 

Coalition spokesperson, Col. John Dorrian, confirmed that they have provided vehicles to the Syrian Arab Coalition. "We have provided armored Sport Utility Vehicles to the Syrian Arab Coalition using existing authorities, in the interest of helping protect our partnered force from the [ISIS] improvised-explosive device threat," Dorrian told AFP news agency on Tuesday. "The decision was made by military commanders, and has been in the works for some time.”

The process of delivering the supplies began under the administration of former US President Barack Obama. A US general commented to USA Today in mid-January that the US air force had been increasing airdrops of weapons, ammunition and other equipment to opposition forces who are closing in on Raqqa.

Antony J. Blinken, the former deputy secretary of state in Obama’s administration, wrote an opinion article in the New York Times on Tuesday in which he hinted that current US President Donald Trump would shift US policy towards further arming Kurds in Syria. “In the last days of the Obama administration, the Pentagon said it would immediately seek permission from President Trump to do just that,” Blinken wrote. “It rightly wants to take advantage of the SDF’s momentum in isolating Raqqa.”" (RUDAW)

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There are several accounts, photos and videos of the delivery of 200 Guardian light armored personnel carriers to the YPG/SDF. These vehicles seem to be well suited to style of YPG/SDF fighters. My guess is that a lot of their current light trucks are reaching the end of their life cycle and need replacing. This is a suitable upgrade. I bet the embedded Special Forces advisors had a hand in picking these vehicles rather than anything heavier and more complicated. 

These will be used in Phase III of Operation Wrath of Euphrates in what has become a classic YPG operation, a double envelopment of Raqqa. The Kurds and their allies are sitting at the north end of the dam at Tabqah. The plan is to take the dam along with Tabqah and then swing east along the southern bank of the Euphrates. A second attack will cross the river between Raqqa and Deir az-Zor and swing to the west. The two prongs of the attack will meet south of Raqqa and isolate the city from the rest of IS held territory. It’s an ambitious plan, but I’m confident the YPG/SDF forces can do this with the more robust support from the U.S. that is surely forthcoming.

 *

In his inauguration address, Trump said he would wipe Islamic State “from the face of the earth.” He won’t do it alone, but I think this Administration, the confoundingly competent fighters of the YPG/SDF and the embedded Green Berets will play a significant part in their final destruction.

TTG

* This photo was captioned SDF and US Special Forces crossing the Euphrates River. I never get tired of saying it. "The shit's on, good buddy." 

Comments

[ex-PFC Chuck]

Meanwhile, the pot in Ukraine begins to simmer again.
https://southfront.org/military-escalation-in-eastern-ukraine-in-last-days-of-january/
https://irrussianality.wordpress.com/2017/02/01/bite-and-hold/

[Sam Peralta]

Fred,

No logic required when you can wet your bed with NeverTrump scary thoughts!

I'm worried these guys may get a stroke. If Trump's first week is driving them so loopy what will happen when Trump and his svengali Bannon figure out their way to the pool room in the WH.

[ex-PFC Chuck]

Here's the link to Mona Chalabi's Op Ed.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Chalabi+guardian&t=h_&ia=web
I used to read her columns frequently when she was at FiveThirtyEight and wondered whether she might be related.

[The Twisted Genius]

ex-PFC Chuck,

I've noticed that, too. This time the Novorossiya Armed Forces are shooting back pretty forcefully and there are serious casualties. This happened a few times since Poroshenko had his ass handed to him at Debaltseve in February 2015. If this develops into something more protracted, I'll post something on the situation.

[Origin]

What? Send in the troops to install Chalabi? Or chase the Shia militias to Iran? Does he have dreams of "reclaiming" the Iraq Obama "lost"? Or is he just delusional?

[VietnamVet]

KH

If Russia, Europe, Iran, China and the USA unite together, the radicalized Islamists can be defeated in the cities in Syria and Iraq. The Caliphate will cease to exist. Colonel Lang’s Idlib Province campaign will come to a successful conclusion. Collateral damage will diminish. If not, and the resupply continues, the fighting will never end. The resistance to foreign invaders never dies as long as there are a People still alive to fight. Likewise, the Deplorables will never acquiesce to domination by foreign globalists. The only way there ever will be peace is if prosperity returns and the borders are secured. Is this possible? The Elite would have to give up their transnational institutions, power and endless wars. The Democrats continue to ignore the plight of the Middle Class, blame their election loss on the Russians and espouse globalism and war. The White House and Corporate Media are at war. Does Steve Bannon’s nationalism support equality under the law for all and the use of wealth to benefit society that is required to heal the economy? We shall see what happens if we live long enough.

[Babak Makkinejad]

The best way to help Kurds is to bring these wars in Syria, Iraq, and Turkey to an end as quickly as possible.

[Babak Makkinejad]

The "Islamic Insurgency" was moving Eastward - it was stopped at Iraqi Kurdistan by Iranian troops.

I heard that there are Iranian troops on the Qandil mountains as well now.

This Islamic Insurgency has much better chance of traction outside of the Seljuk boundary - in Central Asia, in Africa, in Pakistan & India, and in the rest of the Arab world; in my opinion.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Russia needs Iran and will oscillate between the two poles of un-Enemy of Iran and an un-Friend of Iran.

As for Russia trying to appease Trump: not in the cards. What does Trump have to offer; will he dissolve NATO, or instruct NATO forces to withdraw to within a 1000 kilometers of Moscow?

I think not.

Western Fortress and the Russian Federation are locked in a power struggle over Ukraine etc. Even if Western sanctions are removed against the Russian Federation, the defensive posture of that country will not change anytime soon unless and until NATO is gone.

Ukraine was another casualty - before that there was Yugoslavia.

Trust that the Russians will continue to nibble at Ukraine and regain control of Kiev - the birthplace of their state - by hook or by crook.

I personally lament the demise of the Peace of Yalta, until something like that is re-established, there would be many more such events.

[Fred]

My my Origin have you completely forgotten what Ahmed Chalabi did? If you're going full troll you'll need to do better than that.

[Fred]

Origin,

Will that be by Putin's order or just because he's Hitler?

[robt willmann]

Further south, in what has become the Yemen theatre of war, a story from Reuters concerns the commando raid on an "Al Qaeda" place there during the weekend in which one Navy Seal soldier was killed. Although the headline presents the issue of whether civilians were killed, a few paragraphs down show that some leaking is going on, as a question is raised about whether sufficient planning and preparation were done before the attack took place--

"U.S. military officials told Reuters that Trump approved his first covert counterterrorism operation without sufficient intelligence, ground support or adequate backup preparations.

As a result, three officials said, the attacking SEAL team found itself dropping onto a reinforced al Qaeda base defended by landmines, snipers, and a larger than expected contingent of heavily armed Islamist extremists.

... [skip some]

The U.S. officials said the extremists’ base had been identified as a target before the Obama administration left office on Jan. 20, but then-President Barack Obama held off approving a raid ahead of his departure.

A White House official said the operation was thoroughly vetted by the previous administration and that the previous defense secretary [that would be Ash Carter] had signed off on it in January. The raid was delayed for operational reasons, the White House official said.

The military officials who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity said 'a brutal firefight' killed Owens and at least 15 Yemeni women and children. One of the dead was the 8-year-old daughter of Anwar al-Awlaki, a militant killed by a 2011 U.S. drone strike.

Some of the women were firing at the U.S. force, Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis told reporters."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-commando-idUSKBN15G5RX

The White House said that the raid was delayed for "operational reasons", according to the article. That broad phrase can include just about anything.

Regardless, real combat is not like the entertainment in the movies or on television, nor is it like the deceptively named "reality TV shows", nor is it the equivalent of rhetoric. Instead, it is reality itself.

[turcopolier]

Robert Willman

It should not be expected that POTUS/CinC should personally approve minor operations such as this. There is no reason to think that the chain of command running south from SECDEF should not handle such decisions based on broad guidance from the Commander in Chief. pl

[The Twisted Genius]

robt willmann,

What struck me about this report was this sentence.

"U.S. military officials told Reuters that Trump approved his first covert counterterrorism operation without sufficient intelligence, ground support or adequate backup preparations."

Those military officials seem to be laying the blame on Trump. Unless the generals told Trump of these misgivings, strenuously recommended against going forward and were ordered to go forward anyways, they were wrong in trying to lay this one on Trump. Perhaps that's exactly what the military officials were trying to say in a samizdat kind of way, but that would be a serious accusation.

I would think AQ is getting very good at countering many of our reconnaissance capabilities and at detecting them when we use them. These kinds of raids are getting tougher to pull off. I also wonder about those SOC Ospreys. Have they been silenced to the extent that other SOC aircraft have been silenced? The ones I've been around (little birds and the like) are as quiet as owls. I hear regular Ospreys flying overhead every other day now. I have never heard a noisier aircraft.

[The Twisted Genius]

pl,

I'm amazed at how high up the Chain of Command the decisions for these operations go. I'd be very surprised if the final decision for this raid did not come from POTUS/CinC. JSOC gets off on that kind of thing. The same kind of raid during the height of our war in Iraq and Iran would be routinely controlled in theater, but the situation in this case is more unique.

[Origin]

Was this Trump's first Situation Room event?

[Origin]

I know Chalabi never ruled and was a complete charatan.

[The Twisted Genius]

Origin,

We don't know. I think the decision would have reached that level, but Colonel Lang reasonably thinks the decision for this operation would have occurred at a lower level.

[Fred]

Origin,

The foreign policy establishment did not believe he was a charlatan.

[ann]

Saudi Arabia buys a huge amount of weapons from the U.S. I find myself sounding like a broken record, sorry, but what if part of this is just about keeping the war machine in the U.S. fully employed?

[ann]

I have read that Obama did the same thing. Pick and choose targets. Not unlike Bush and his "deck of cards". Bad idea for people with No military experience, yes, but this does feed an ego.

[turcopolier]

ann

LBJ did it also. You don't get the point. It is simply beneath the dignity of his office for a president to directly insert himself in the chain of command to conduct minor operations. pl

[turcopolier]

ann

Ah, good old "Merchants of Death" ideology. Stupid. pl

[turcopolier]

TTG

I don't know at what level this approval was made but it should not have been made by the president. What the hell do we have SECDEF and the generals for? pl

[turcopolier]

Origin

His "first situation room event?" You want to place blame on the president for the conduct and fortunes of war mishaps of a small operation 5,000 miles away? Have you no sense of proportion at all or has your "righteous" angst carried you completely away? pl