Wrath of Euphrates, Phase III - TTG

"ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — The US-led international coalition against ISIS provided its allies in Syria with armored vehicles, a spokesperson for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said and a US colonel confirmed. “The armored vehicles and troop carriers had arrived four or five days ago,” Talal Silo told Reuters on Tuesday. “Previously we didn't get support in this form, we would get light weapons and ammunition. There are signs of full support from the new American leadership, more than before, for our forces,” he added. 

Silo said the vehicles would be used to support the SDF’s ongoing offensive on ISIS-held Raqqa, which the extremist group claimed as its capital. The SDF is a coalition of forces including the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), the Syrian Arab Coalition, and Turkmen and Assyrian elements. During its campaign for Raqqa, the SDF has also added many local fighters to its ranks. 

The US-led coalition has been backing the SDF as a key ally on the ground fighting ISIS in northern Syria, providing advice, air support, and some arms. American officials, however, have been very clear that the arms they supply are to the Syrian Arab Coalition and not Kurdish forces, who are dominant members of the SDF. The US is balancing its support of the YPG and SDF with its alliance with fellow NATO member Turkey who considers the YPG to be a terrorist group with ties to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). 

Coalition spokesperson, Col. John Dorrian, confirmed that they have provided vehicles to the Syrian Arab Coalition. "We have provided armored Sport Utility Vehicles to the Syrian Arab Coalition using existing authorities, in the interest of helping protect our partnered force from the [ISIS] improvised-explosive device threat," Dorrian told AFP news agency on Tuesday. "The decision was made by military commanders, and has been in the works for some time.”

The process of delivering the supplies began under the administration of former US President Barack Obama. A US general commented to USA Today in mid-January that the US air force had been increasing airdrops of weapons, ammunition and other equipment to opposition forces who are closing in on Raqqa.

Antony J. Blinken, the former deputy secretary of state in Obama’s administration, wrote an opinion article in the New York Times on Tuesday in which he hinted that current US President Donald Trump would shift US policy towards further arming Kurds in Syria. “In the last days of the Obama administration, the Pentagon said it would immediately seek permission from President Trump to do just that,” Blinken wrote. “It rightly wants to take advantage of the SDF’s momentum in isolating Raqqa.”" (RUDAW)

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There are several accounts, photos and videos of the delivery of 200 Guardian light armored personnel carriers to the YPG/SDF. These vehicles seem to be well suited to style of YPG/SDF fighters. My guess is that a lot of their current light trucks are reaching the end of their life cycle and need replacing. This is a suitable upgrade. I bet the embedded Special Forces advisors had a hand in picking these vehicles rather than anything heavier and more complicated. 

These will be used in Phase III of Operation Wrath of Euphrates in what has become a classic YPG operation, a double envelopment of Raqqa. The Kurds and their allies are sitting at the north end of the dam at Tabqah. The plan is to take the dam along with Tabqah and then swing east along the southern bank of the Euphrates. A second attack will cross the river between Raqqa and Deir az-Zor and swing to the west. The two prongs of the attack will meet south of Raqqa and isolate the city from the rest of IS held territory. It’s an ambitious plan, but I’m confident the YPG/SDF forces can do this with the more robust support from the U.S. that is surely forthcoming.

 *

In his inauguration address, Trump said he would wipe Islamic State “from the face of the earth.” He won’t do it alone, but I think this Administration, the confoundingly competent fighters of the YPG/SDF and the embedded Green Berets will play a significant part in their final destruction.

TTG

* This photo was captioned SDF and US Special Forces crossing the Euphrates River. I never get tired of saying it. "The shit's on, good buddy." 

Comments

[turcopolier]

TTG

I suppose you realize that I am protesting this kind of foolishness. I know they "get off" on it but the decision process should not be driven up to the president in SOF hit jobs. When that happens you then have the CinC going out to Dover every time they lose a few men because he personally approved this raid. You had SOG veteran friends. I am sure you understand how silly things like this look to me. And as you know they WILL lose men. pl

[turcopolier]

TTG

Oh, wow, face time with the president. Did they not stupidly brief him on this? This guy thinks he is a soldier because he went to a military prep school? somehow I suspect that the dynamic intellectual duo of Flynn and Harvey were involved in this. pl

[Jack]

Memories are short. Many forget the Rendon Group. And how the fraudster Chalabi arrived back in Baghdad with his ragtag INC force care of the CPA. Who knows if he was an Iranian agent or just the guy Wolfowitz needed for the Cheney wing to act out their regime change disaster which was backed by the Borg Queen.

The NeverTrumpers have gone full bore hysterical. While they cheered the n-dimensional chess player Barak Hussein Obama and Hillary's wars in Libya and Syria now we see their faux outrage with imagined actions that Trump may take or not.

Rather disingenuous IMO.

[The Twisted Genius]

pl,

I agree it's foolishness and I would protest this right by your side for all the reasons you laid out. I think a lot of this foolishness is facilitated by modern communications systems. I long for the days when you would quietly get the mission, go off to accomplish that mission for however long it took, quietly come back and everyone would STFU. There were still many of those types in the squadrons of the SMU that I served in. I honor those men. On the other hand, the HQ was crawling with MI weenies, many who advanced into the JSOC bureaucracy. I considered them wannabes, posers who did "get off" on how high-speed and bad-ass they considered themselves. Flynn is of the later type.

[turcopolier]

TTG

In MACVSOG and STDAT-158 we launched really big ops (1,000 man sometimes)into Laos against NVA logistics and never told anyone about but PACOM based on a secure phone call. We had standing authorities. pl

[The Twisted Genius]

pl,

I fear those days are long gone.

"From where the sun now stands, I will fight no more forever."

[Thomas]

I was going to ask why you think there would not be cooperation for a concluding the conflict and reading your Feb 1 4:41pm and today's 2:19pm posts I am assuming the answer is in them. Or is there more such as Iraq not being able to take, eventually, Mosul?

I do believe the Idlib province problem will be dealt with in time this year. The Russians seem adamant that the Syrians are going to due the bulk of work which slows things down as need for troops to finish in one area before being released for new operations as b has pointed out. My view are the Astana talks help by time to allow those Syrians wanting out a face saving way while Erdogan can get his brothers in that hood to separate from those on the final target list.

This conflict needs to be concluded soon.

Back to cautiously optimistic.

[Thomas]

Exactly.

The present solution is to turn this current militant force into a remnant of spiteful idealistic revivalists. Perhaps those generations yet to arrive here will read and learn from these times and find their way to balance the differences of life.

[turcopolier]

Thomas

I am not going to search for material for you. If you have a question, ask it in a straightforward way in plain English. IMO the priority of effort should be in Idlib Province because time and tide wait for no man. sometime this year is not good enough if you want to win. IMO Idlib Province is the AQ connected center of gravity in western Syria nd once the water gets turned back on in Damascus this boil should be lanced forthwith.pl

[Thomas]

Understood.

Some time this year would be by end of March, which I feel will happen.

[turcopolier]

Thomas

That would be a good thing. pl

[Keith Harbaugh]

"U.S. military officials told Reuters that Trump approved his first covert counterterrorism operation without sufficient intelligence, ground support or adequate backup preparations."

What I can't figure out is why the military would even go to the president for approval of an operation which was so inadequately prepped to begin with. If the operation was on such shaky foundations, how did it ever move up the chain of command? Sounds to me that, if the situation was as described, the fault is 100% somewhere in uniformed DOD, not at the WH.

[Origin]

It was just a question. I have no opinion or position on the event.

[ann]

Is this a tactical mistake or a strategic mistake? Or maybe you could point me to a book that would explain in depth.

Thanks

[The Twisted Genius]

ann,

This was a tactical operation just like other raids undertaken by JSOC elements. I couldn't tell you whether this was a mistake or not. Probably not. Tactically, the objective was taken with light casualties. It doesn't look total surprise was achieved. All this means it wasn't perfect. Few things are in war.

Just Google tactics vs strategy to get any number of explanations on the difference.

[ann]

Thank you, I'll do that

[Trent]

Not urgent, but would appreciate your thoughts on Operation Eagle Claw in Iran in 1980. Was Carter too involved?

[turcopolier]

Trent

No. This was a major political issue and deserved the president's involvement. pl

[turcopolier]

TTG

Those days should return. What was done should be undone. pl

[William Fitzgerald]

Pat Lang & TTG,

The times have certainly changed. F.D.R., when he got involved in military ops., was concerned with matters like whether we should, in concert with our allies, land in France in 1943 or in 1944. Now we have a president approving a company (-) sized reconnaissance raid whose objective was to swipe some documents and computers.

So, if the raid accomplished the mission, suffered 1 KIA and 3 WIA, and lost a helicopter through a malfunction, how is that causing so much angst? And, why should the president fly to Dover to greet the returning corpse? The last question was rhetorical. The answer is P.R.

WPFIII

[mike]

TTG -

Today's Phase III sit map:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C4GBVB_WAAQ0_L6.jpg

Doing well east of Raqqah. I have not seen any updates of what is happening on the western axis.