"Turkey’s policy aimed at preventing Syrian Kurds from gaining a swath of territory along the Turkish-Syrian border has totally trumped its desire to see the end of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Developments show that Turkey at this point is even enabling Assad’s drive to regain control of Syria. The Turkish drive to capture the Islamic State (IS) stronghold of al-Bab, only 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the Turkish border, also aims at curbing Kurdish aspirations. Gaining control of this town has become a matter of prestige for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been arguing for weeks that it is on the verge of being taken.
The problem for Turkey, however, is that it is not just Kurds attached to the People's Protection Units (YPG) — which Ankara views as a terrorist group linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) — who are racing to take al-Bab.
The Syrian regime also wants the town to consolidate its imminent victory in Aleppo. Al-Bab is a gateway to Aleppo, which also leaves Moscow concerned that it could provide a supply line for anti-regime fighters.
Reports have appeared in the Turkish media claiming that the Syrian army and the YPG are collaborating to enter the town before the Turkish-supported Free Syrian Army (FSA). But following assurances by Prime Minister Binali Yildirim regarding Turkey's intention in Syria, given during his visit to Moscow last week, there are indications that Ankara has obtained a conditional green light from Russia to move on al-Bab."
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It does appear that Russia is copacetic with Turkish forces and their FSA allies taking al-Bab… at least for now. The Russians and the SAA clearly have other fish to fry. At least the Turks are occupying the attention of a sizable number of IS jihadis. The Turks have moved three hundred or so “commandos” to al-Bab along with a number of their Leopard 2 tanks. Within the last 48 hours, Turkish authorities report four F-16s have hit 28 IS targets in the area with another 157 targets hit by artillery.
The IS is not just rolling over in this fight. The Hurriyet Daily News said IS has fortified the city with nearly a thousand ditches including two meter wide anti-tank ditches supported by minefields and anti-tank weapons. Three Leopard 2s have been reported to be destroyed by IS TOW-2s and Konkurs missiles as of yesterday. The Turkish/FSA offensive is stalled on the outskirts of al-Bab. The U.S. is providing no air or ground support to this Turkish offensive.
The Turks will probably take al-Bab before too long, but what’s next? Erdogan has answered that question himself. Anadalou Agency quoted Erdogan as saying, "At this moment, we are focused on al-Bab, we have surrounded al-Bab on the west, and we will go from here to Manbij.” Well that should get interesting.
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AIN ISSA, Syrian Kurdistan (Kurdistan24) - The US-backed Syrian Kurdish-Arab alliance announced on Wednesday they liberated dozens of villages and approached a strategic town held by the Islamic State (IS) group west of the city of Raqqa. Kurdistan24 correspondent embedded with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reported that about twenty villages were liberated from IS in the western countryside of Raqqa.
On the third day of the second phase of the offensive launched last month to liberate the Syrian de facto capital of IS, the SDF advanced about 15 km/9 miles towards the IS-held area of Tabqa, some 60 km (40 miles), to the west of Raqqa.
Several SDF fighters on the frontlines told Kurdistan24 that most of IS insurgents were leaving their positioning without any resistance. "[IS] insurgents don't fight, they just flee in front of our forces," said Hoger, a Syrian Kurdish SDF fighter. Additionally, the fighters said they were fighting IS and helping civilians return to their villages immediately. "After we liberate a village, we clean it and remove the mines, and then we help people return to their homes safely," said Hasan, a Syrian Arab SDF fighter.
SDF officers who talked to Kurdistan24 on conditions of anonymity said the target of SDF and their allies is controlling the Thawra Dam, near the town of Thawra, some 150 km (90 miles) southeast of Aleppo. By controlling the Tabqa dam, the SDF can control the western areas of Raqqa, and then separate those areas from the city, so that IS will be besieged from three sides.
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Not long ago, the YPG was threatening to pull out of the Wrath of Euphrates offensive to take Raqqa to aid their brethren in the Manbij Military Council against the Turkish/FSA invasion. Now they are participating in phase two of the operation to take Raqqa. Perhaps the original threat and the YPG columns moving West were maskirovka to move forces into position to strike from the Tishreen Dam towards Tabqa. Looks like the plan worked. U.S. Special Forces and special operations forces are participating in this fight. I’ve also seen videos of Ospreys brings arms and ammunition to the SDF/YPG forces in Ayn Issa. Now we’ll see if IS reinforces this front in any meaningful way.
Both these moves against IS will serve to take pressure off other fronts including Palmyra. Seems the R+6 and the U.S. are okay with all this at the moment. I seriously doubt it will stay that way once Turkey moves agains Manbij in a meaningful way. At some point, this will look like Tolkien's battle of five armies.
TTG
Mike, what you refuse to understand is that being Iranian is similar to being American it's not about sharing religion or blood is about sharing culture. Think of Iran as the old world' melting pot.
Posted by: kooshy | 17 December 2016 at 11:52 PM
Babak Makkinejad -
I have said it here previously that I have a lot of respect and admiration for Iran and the Iranian people. Since the time of Cyrus most Iranians have respected the culture and religion of other people. It is a shame that the IRGC has abandoned that code of behavior. I do not believe that the great majority of Iranian people agree with the IRGC labeling those Kurds that ask for self-determination as being 'enemies of God'.
But even I have to admit that Tehran is ten thousand times better than Ankara. At least in Iran there have not been state sponsored pogroms like in Turkey. Or maybe there have been and were kept out of the press?
Posted by: mike allen | 17 December 2016 at 11:56 PM
Mike, the very narrow line of thoughts you push or work on, in support of Kurds, IMO is not working since they are contradicting each other, as far as I have read, this same lines has been pushed for many years and hasn't got anywhere or changed anything. Here is why, in one line you say Iran is helping and sheltering PKK this line hopes to form and open a gap a wedge, between Iranian (IRGC) and Turkish military (IRGC), and Barezani warlords (they know if they don't cooperate they get access denial), for a minimum hope of eliminating intelligence sharing between this 3 groups, for mistrust of each other' intention. The second line you push is that the Iranian military (IRGC) is killing the Kurd insurgents (PJAK) and blocking Kurds "self determination" which IMO is western BS like the R2P.
IMO, the problem with this 2 lines of thoughts you push is, that this 2 Kurdish insurgency organizations are one of the same they work and live together very closely ever since PJAC an offshoot of PKK was started, guess when, when real men was suppose to go to Tehran back in 04. You can't claim in one comment Iran is helping PKK against Turks and in next comment claim Iran is killing jailing PJAK/ PKK insurgents.
"Some experts describe PJAK as an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).[4][5] Both groups are members of the Kurdistan Communities Union or KCK (Kurdish: Koma Civakên Kurdistan), an umbrella group of Kurdish political and insurgent groups in Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Iraq.[6][7]"
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdistan_Free_Life_Party
There is this old Persian proverb, which comes to mind, when fox gets cut and denies he stoled the chicken "they ask the fox should we believe you or your tail"
Colonel Lang- my apology for long comment.
Posted by: kooshy | 18 December 2016 at 10:46 AM
The preamble of the US Constitution states:
"We the People of the United States, in Order to ... establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity..."
I think that the Islamic Republic of Iran has partly or in whole has achieved those goals; with the two goals of establishing Justice and securing Liberty lagging considerably as compared to United Kingdom, for example.
Put another way, of the 3 elements of the popular slogan of the Iranian Revolution: "Independence, Liberty, Islamic Republic" 2 are achieved - Independence and Islamic Republic - while the goal of establishing a Liberal order remains distant.
This goal of Liberty, in fact, was also a goal of the Constitutional Revolution in 1907 - more than a hundred years ago.
Over the years, regrettably, I have come to the conclusion that the intellectual and religious basis of a Liberal Order - the ideas and ideals of Freedom as understood in Western Diocletian states - do not exist anywhere in the Muslim world; neither as political institutions, nor in bodies of works by Muslims, nor in actual social practices in Islamic world.
It reminds me of what one heard whispered in Pakistan, in reference to Democracy of India, "Is it because of Islam?"
In my opinion, there is no Muslim country that is Free as you would understand it in place like Minneapolis or Copenhagen and nor there is any one even remotely as Free as the Russian Federation.
However, in my opinion, the existence of this deficit of Liberty in these states should not be used by the Fortress West as a wedge to beat down Iran or other Muslim states; without robust Muslim states Fortress West cannot extricate herself from the religious war that she has entered - not when there would be 3 billion Muslims on this planet in a generation or so.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 18 December 2016 at 11:52 AM
Thank you for your comments.
I also recently got an inkling of the connections and mutual influences among Sassanid Iran, Byzantium, and early Islamic Caliphates; e.g. the almost fanatical opposition to any innovation characterized Byzantium which, evidently, bequeathed that to later Islamic centuries.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 18 December 2016 at 12:03 PM
No no no.
That country exists because of Shia Religion - the Iran idea is a distant second.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 18 December 2016 at 12:10 PM
IMO it is what it is it's PKK and is not going away, some in the west wish the same for Iran.
Posted by: kooshy | 18 December 2016 at 02:48 PM
Kooshy -
What I said was NOT about PKK vs PJAK, but PKK vs PDK-I. The PDK-I is also sometimes known as KDPI. This is a completely separate organization from PJAK.
Regarding Turkey, what I suggested was that Iran now sponsors PKK in Turkey. This has not always been the case. Babak is correct in stating that at one point in the past both Iran and Turkey considered PKK as terrorists. But that was before Erdogan started assisting anti-Assad Salafi movements. So now at that time Iran started fighting back, not only in Syria and Iraq but also in Eastern Turkey using the PKK as a proxy.
Posted by: mike allen | 19 December 2016 at 01:16 AM
James -
The PKK has bombed Turkish security forces but that is mostly in the east. The recent terrorist bombing in Istanbul has been attributed to TAK, which is a splinter group of the PKK. TAK, also known as the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons, is in open dissent against the PKK readiness to compromise with the Turkish State. Although the Turks claim that the two groups are still linked.
Other terrorist bombings in Istanbul have been connected to and and claimed by Daesh the Islamic State.
Posted by: mike allen | 19 December 2016 at 10:50 AM