Update on Rojava - TTG

"Turkey’s policy aimed at preventing Syrian Kurds from gaining a swath of territory along the Turkish-Syrian border has totally trumped its desire to see the end of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Developments show that Turkey at this point is even enabling Assad’s drive to regain control of Syria. The Turkish drive to capture the Islamic State (IS) stronghold of al-Bab, only 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the Turkish border, also aims at curbing Kurdish aspirations. Gaining control of this town has become a matter of prestige for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been arguing for weeks that it is on the verge of being taken.

The problem for Turkey, however, is that it is not just Kurds attached to the People's Protection Units (YPG) — which Ankara views as a terrorist group linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) — who are racing to take al-Bab.

The Syrian regime also wants the town to consolidate its imminent victory in Aleppo. Al-Bab is a gateway to Aleppo, which also leaves Moscow concerned that it could provide a supply line for anti-regime fighters.

Reports have appeared in the Turkish media claiming that the Syrian army and the YPG are collaborating to enter the town before the Turkish-supported Free Syrian Army (FSA). But following assurances by Prime Minister Binali Yildirim regarding Turkey's intention in Syria, given during his visit to Moscow last week, there are indications that Ankara has obtained a conditional green light from Russia to move on al-Bab."

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/12/turkey-drive-against-syrian-kurds-enabling-assad.html#ixzz4Svfn2aYN

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It does appear that Russia is copacetic with Turkish forces and their FSA allies taking al-Bab… at least for now. The Russians and the SAA clearly have other fish to fry. At least the Turks are occupying the attention of a sizable number of IS jihadis. The Turks have moved three hundred or so “commandos” to al-Bab along with a number of their Leopard 2 tanks. Within the last 48 hours, Turkish authorities report four F-16s have hit 28 IS targets in the area with another 157 targets hit by artillery. 

The IS is not just rolling over in this fight. The Hurriyet Daily News said IS has fortified the city with nearly a thousand ditches including two meter wide anti-tank ditches supported by minefields and anti-tank weapons. Three Leopard 2s have been reported to be destroyed by IS TOW-2s and Konkurs missiles as of yesterday. The Turkish/FSA offensive is stalled on the outskirts of al-Bab. The U.S. is providing no air or ground support to this Turkish offensive.

The Turks will probably take al-Bab before too long, but what’s next? Erdogan has answered that question himself. Anadalou Agency quoted Erdogan as saying, "At this moment, we are focused on al-Bab, we have surrounded al-Bab on the west, and we will go from here to Manbij.” Well that should get interesting.

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 AIN ISSA, Syrian Kurdistan (Kurdistan24) - The US-backed Syrian Kurdish-Arab alliance announced on Wednesday they liberated dozens of villages and approached a strategic town held by the Islamic State (IS) group west of the city of Raqqa. Kurdistan24 correspondent embedded with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reported that about twenty villages were liberated from IS in the western countryside of Raqqa.

On the third day of the second phase of the offensive launched last month to liberate the Syrian de facto capital of IS, the SDF advanced about 15 km/9 miles towards the IS-held area of Tabqa, some 60 km (40 miles), to the west of Raqqa.

Several SDF fighters on the frontlines told Kurdistan24 that most of IS insurgents were leaving their positioning without any resistance. "[IS] insurgents don't fight, they just flee in front of our forces," said Hoger, a Syrian Kurdish SDF fighter. Additionally, the fighters said they were fighting IS and helping civilians return to their villages immediately. "After we liberate a village, we clean it and remove the mines, and then we help people return to their homes safely," said Hasan, a Syrian Arab SDF fighter.    

SDF officers who talked to Kurdistan24 on conditions of anonymity said the target of SDF and their allies is controlling the Thawra Dam, near the town of Thawra, some 150 km (90 miles) southeast of Aleppo. By controlling the Tabqa dam, the SDF can control the western areas of Raqqa, and then separate those areas from the city, so that IS will be besieged from three sides.

http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/f0808e04-4e24-4b65-8daa-7e6cd41b367b/Raqqa-battle--Kurdish-led-forces-approach-Tabqa--liberate-villages

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Not long ago, the YPG was threatening to pull out of the Wrath of Euphrates offensive to take Raqqa to aid their brethren in the Manbij Military Council against the Turkish/FSA invasion. Now they are participating in phase two of the operation to take Raqqa. Perhaps the original threat and the YPG columns moving West were maskirovka to move forces into position to strike from the Tishreen Dam towards Tabqa. Looks like the plan worked. U.S. Special Forces and special operations forces are participating in this fight. I’ve also seen videos of Ospreys brings arms and ammunition to the SDF/YPG forces in Ayn Issa. Now we’ll see if IS reinforces this front in any meaningful way. 

Both these moves against IS will serve to take pressure off other fronts including Palmyra. Seems the R+6 and the U.S. are okay with all this at the moment. I seriously doubt it will stay that way once Turkey moves agains Manbij in a meaningful way. At some point, this will look like Tolkien's battle of five armies.

TTG

Comments

[mike allen]

RE Palmyra:

US airstrikes claim destruction of "14 tanks, three artillery systems, two ISIL-held buildings, two tactical vehicles, and an air defense artillery system," that had been captured by Daesh from the Syrian Army a few days ago.

http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/syria/16122016

[Chris Chuba]

I read that as a confession that we supported rebels who were hopelessly aligned with Al Qaeda for at least two years.

'Why we failed' reads like a rhetorical question.

What if we got every single thing we asked for, what was our plan, did we expect the rebels who were buddies with Al Qaeda to suddenly turn on their brothers the day that Assad fell, defeat them, then drive ISIS out of the country? This was never explored.

[JMH]

And what's off the coast of Brazil? Probably just a few weeks supply.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Yup and before that was Kosovo, Bosnia, East Timor...

Always ready to breakup other people's states in heart beat, yet so reluctant to apply the same policies to their own countries.

And the hero to many of them is the man most responsible for the break up of British India - one Mohandas Kramchand Gandhi...

It must be the Beige Third-Worlder in me speaking...

[aleksandar]

Right sir, I was speeking about "shade" in commmon french.
Respectfully......

[aleksandar]

Yes, you can add " Umma" as a strong sign of this thinking mode.

[Serge]

A very interesting detail in an otherwise unremarkable politico article on the Mosul situation:
"One senior Pentagon officer with access to daily battle reports on the Mosul fight says the battle for the city has been so intense that the Golden Division’s veteran battalions “are suffering upwards of 50 percent casualties. If that rate stays constant,” he told me, “the division could become combat ineffective in a little over a month, and perhaps even sooner.”
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/iraq-army-mosul-isis-214531

[BraveNewWorld]

At the end of the day none of the countries in the area can afford to leave an American presence sitting there like a tumour. Syria can't afford it because the US will continue to push arms in there and use it as a staging area for the next war against Syria. The Turks can't have it because the US is backing the Kurds. Iran can't have it because every one Trump wants to nominate is foaming at the mouth about Iran. Iraq can't have it because ... the last 15 years. Russia can't have it because it gives NATO a new attack vector against Russia.

Trump could pull the special forces out of the region but almost no one in the Republican or Democratic parties or any one Trump is going to nominate are on board, so that looks dubious. So sooner or later the Kurds are going to have to turn on their handlers if they want any kind of peace with their neighbours. That will happen later rather than sooner, but happen it will.

[Henshaw]

Estimates of oil reserves are slippery because they have to include estimates of extraction costs, and thus of likely prices. You have to look closely at how the estimate has been defined. If it will cost $100 to extract a barrel of oil from a site but the price of oil is only $50, it's not economic to extract, and estimates of reserves will reflect this. Increase the price and suddenly it becomes economic to get oil from higher extraction cost reserves.

Recent low oil prices have depressed estimates of 'economically extractable' oil.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Per Col. Lang we need to evaluate any news separate from their source but some validation links would always be welcome.
Ishmael Zechariah
P.s: Here is an earlier bit of news from rudaw.net.
http://ekurd.net/syrian-kurds-ban-rudaw-kobani-2016-02-27

[mike allen]

Ishmael Zechariah -

Here is a link to the Coalition strike release for 15 December. I make no claim to its veracity. But I take it at face value. Other than a pilot's possible exaggeration of his strike results. I would hope that CJTF-OIR had gun camera evidence or independent verification of BDA by other sources.

http://www.inherentresolve.mil/Portals/1/20161216%20Strike%20Release.pdf?ver=2016-12-16-085945-600

[Babak Makkinejad]

Yes.

One has to observe a string of wreckage from Hindu Kush to the Atlas Mountains to despair.

[FND]

I saw a clip of a actual independent journalist who had actually spent time on the ground in Allepo talking to civilians. At least she seemed to be legitimately independent. She gave a report on the Ron Paul report. Her name is Vanessa Beeley. She's a brave journalist. She's not a fan of the white helmets or our American Pravda media.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgnTskvdYi0

[Henshaw]

Not to be confused with Ferengi https://projectsanctuary.com/the_complete_ferengi_rules_of_acquisition.htm

[kooshy]

Mike, as other situation in the region for iran, it is all about and depends on Iran being a minority nation both ethnically and religiously in region what I call the sea of neighbouring sunnis, including Arab and Turk Sunnis, as well as Arab and Turk Shia who also wouldnt appreciate if Iran recognized part of their country passes to another Iranian ethnicity the Kurds, remember Tip O'Neill " all politics are local" you seating in the west don't have that problem you are not local, Iranians do. The closest people in the region to Kurds are not Israelis or the US Kurd simpetizers , it's the Iranian, this is since, Kurds are ethnically also Iranian. Iran will not compromise it's national and her respected arab shia minority' security siding with Kurds independence, or whatever federalism you like, or in same way, recognizing Israel and or becoming bosom buddies with US. IMO that is minimum security requirement for Iran, trying not to alienate neighbouring muslim streets as much as possible, that is cheapest and safest security you can buy.

[mike allen]

James -

Isn't Iran already providing PKK with support?

[Phil Cattar]

BTW,There is a lot more Native American land in the USA than most people realize.The Navajo reservation in the 4 corners area of the Southwest is larger than the smallest 3 states of New England combined.

[Babak Makkinejad]

That is really funny, a few years ago Speaker of Iranian Parliament took evidence with him to Turkey that purported to show US material support for PKK.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Heard in a Café in Aleppo a while back...

The Christian Owner:

- The guns are blasting again, the Takfiris are gathering.

- The ex-intelligence officer from Turkey: Yes, but Iranians are gathering the Fatemiyoon and Zeinabiyoon. Nasty bunch, from what I hear.

- Let me get you a drink effendi -

Gives him a drink which the fellow sips:

- Good God Man, what is this? It is awful.

- Ah, this is a common Iranian drink, Borage tea.

- It is vile.

- Yes, I know, just like the Iranians. But you know what? After a while it starts growing on you.

- Do you think they can stop the Takfiris?

- I do not know my friend, by I sure hope so.

[different clue]

Babak Makkinejad,

" Borage for courage." ---old English saying.

Years ago I grew some borage in the garden once. I had read that the leaves were edible boiled. And they were, but they had a sort of woolly hairy tongue-feel/ texture even when cooked. Maybe some day I will try it again. Maybe I will try younger leaves.

Here's a bunch of pictures of borage.
https://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images;_ylt=AwrBT9VKyFRY4.YAlzFXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEydWM2M3NqBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjMyMTlfMQRzZWMDc2M-?p=Borage&fr=sfp

[mike allen]

Babak Makkinejad -

That was before Turkish overt support of Salafis in Syria. The game has changed now.

Or maybe even back then the Speaker of Parliament you mentioned was trying to deflect the blame?

Cemil Bayik, one of the PKK co-founders has reportedly been in talks with the IRGC. PKK has had bases in the Qandil mountains right on the Iran/Iraq border a couple of years without apparent Iranian interference. And al-Monitor claims that Iran and Iranian-supported Iraqi militias are allying with the PKK in Sinjar to counterbalance Turkish military presence near Bashiqa. Perhaps that is all Turkish & Saudi agitprop.

But even Breitbart had a recent article on PKK in Iran having a firefight with members of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI). And Breitbart never pushes fake news do they (snark alert). But they may have got that from LtGen Flynn, Trump's National Security Adviser, who has close ties to Turkey. So that too could be BS.

But the PKK is getting support from somewhere. If not Iran, then who? Russia? Could be. Saudis or Qatar? No way. The US as per your Speaker? Horse pucky I say.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

BM,
We (secular Turkish progressives) consider the PKK- in fact, the whole kurd gambit-a Borg operation. The nations which support this operation, as well as the kurdish "role" designated by the "Masters of the Universe™" are well documented. For example, this operation has similarities to the Ukraine and the social/ethnical disintegration engineered there. However, such issues are not mentioned in polite company, where it is better to bemoan the massacres in Aleppo conducted by the vile Russians, Iranians and SAA.
Ishmael Zechariah

[trinlae]

It might be worth distinguishing Arab Muslim culture from *all* Muslims in general. For example, Muslims in Bangaladesh, Indonesia, and Malaysia have a different political and cultural history especially with respect to European colonial history and related extant governance and political systems. Similarly for Muslim populations in India and China. This diversity reflects a population much higher orders of magnitude than the total of Arab Muslims. This may also be one reason why Wahabbi (Arab style) Sunni Islam appears to always be looking to export and replicate itself among non arab muslim populations outside the ME. It has the ME money but not the populations.

Still, the question of whether federalism can work suitably is a good question. Recent experience in Nepal is that trying to define federal states that loosely reflect indigenous ethnic and cultural residential population history is a tricky but not necessarily impossible business. One problem is that the nature of electoral politics is short term in interests, often to used by parties to obstruct the political systems from productivity, so naturally providing inertial resistance to any long term structural developments like government administering creation of federal states and so forth.

[medhat behjed]

Kurds not iranian and not Turks or Arabs.Kurds are Kurds only nothing to do with Iran.

[LeaNder]

Yes, I guess that is what makes Pat's SST interesting. It's not a pure echo chamber.