Update on Rojava - TTG

"Turkey’s policy aimed at preventing Syrian Kurds from gaining a swath of territory along the Turkish-Syrian border has totally trumped its desire to see the end of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Developments show that Turkey at this point is even enabling Assad’s drive to regain control of Syria. The Turkish drive to capture the Islamic State (IS) stronghold of al-Bab, only 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the Turkish border, also aims at curbing Kurdish aspirations. Gaining control of this town has become a matter of prestige for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been arguing for weeks that it is on the verge of being taken.

The problem for Turkey, however, is that it is not just Kurds attached to the People's Protection Units (YPG) — which Ankara views as a terrorist group linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) — who are racing to take al-Bab.

The Syrian regime also wants the town to consolidate its imminent victory in Aleppo. Al-Bab is a gateway to Aleppo, which also leaves Moscow concerned that it could provide a supply line for anti-regime fighters.

Reports have appeared in the Turkish media claiming that the Syrian army and the YPG are collaborating to enter the town before the Turkish-supported Free Syrian Army (FSA). But following assurances by Prime Minister Binali Yildirim regarding Turkey's intention in Syria, given during his visit to Moscow last week, there are indications that Ankara has obtained a conditional green light from Russia to move on al-Bab."

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/12/turkey-drive-against-syrian-kurds-enabling-assad.html#ixzz4Svfn2aYN

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It does appear that Russia is copacetic with Turkish forces and their FSA allies taking al-Bab… at least for now. The Russians and the SAA clearly have other fish to fry. At least the Turks are occupying the attention of a sizable number of IS jihadis. The Turks have moved three hundred or so “commandos” to al-Bab along with a number of their Leopard 2 tanks. Within the last 48 hours, Turkish authorities report four F-16s have hit 28 IS targets in the area with another 157 targets hit by artillery. 

The IS is not just rolling over in this fight. The Hurriyet Daily News said IS has fortified the city with nearly a thousand ditches including two meter wide anti-tank ditches supported by minefields and anti-tank weapons. Three Leopard 2s have been reported to be destroyed by IS TOW-2s and Konkurs missiles as of yesterday. The Turkish/FSA offensive is stalled on the outskirts of al-Bab. The U.S. is providing no air or ground support to this Turkish offensive.

The Turks will probably take al-Bab before too long, but what’s next? Erdogan has answered that question himself. Anadalou Agency quoted Erdogan as saying, "At this moment, we are focused on al-Bab, we have surrounded al-Bab on the west, and we will go from here to Manbij.” Well that should get interesting.

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 AIN ISSA, Syrian Kurdistan (Kurdistan24) - The US-backed Syrian Kurdish-Arab alliance announced on Wednesday they liberated dozens of villages and approached a strategic town held by the Islamic State (IS) group west of the city of Raqqa. Kurdistan24 correspondent embedded with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reported that about twenty villages were liberated from IS in the western countryside of Raqqa.

On the third day of the second phase of the offensive launched last month to liberate the Syrian de facto capital of IS, the SDF advanced about 15 km/9 miles towards the IS-held area of Tabqa, some 60 km (40 miles), to the west of Raqqa.

Several SDF fighters on the frontlines told Kurdistan24 that most of IS insurgents were leaving their positioning without any resistance. "[IS] insurgents don't fight, they just flee in front of our forces," said Hoger, a Syrian Kurdish SDF fighter. Additionally, the fighters said they were fighting IS and helping civilians return to their villages immediately. "After we liberate a village, we clean it and remove the mines, and then we help people return to their homes safely," said Hasan, a Syrian Arab SDF fighter.    

SDF officers who talked to Kurdistan24 on conditions of anonymity said the target of SDF and their allies is controlling the Thawra Dam, near the town of Thawra, some 150 km (90 miles) southeast of Aleppo. By controlling the Tabqa dam, the SDF can control the western areas of Raqqa, and then separate those areas from the city, so that IS will be besieged from three sides.

http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/f0808e04-4e24-4b65-8daa-7e6cd41b367b/Raqqa-battle--Kurdish-led-forces-approach-Tabqa--liberate-villages

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Not long ago, the YPG was threatening to pull out of the Wrath of Euphrates offensive to take Raqqa to aid their brethren in the Manbij Military Council against the Turkish/FSA invasion. Now they are participating in phase two of the operation to take Raqqa. Perhaps the original threat and the YPG columns moving West were maskirovka to move forces into position to strike from the Tishreen Dam towards Tabqa. Looks like the plan worked. U.S. Special Forces and special operations forces are participating in this fight. I’ve also seen videos of Ospreys brings arms and ammunition to the SDF/YPG forces in Ayn Issa. Now we’ll see if IS reinforces this front in any meaningful way. 

Both these moves against IS will serve to take pressure off other fronts including Palmyra. Seems the R+6 and the U.S. are okay with all this at the moment. I seriously doubt it will stay that way once Turkey moves agains Manbij in a meaningful way. At some point, this will look like Tolkien's battle of five armies.

TTG

Comments

[LeaNder]

Paul,
i disagree with pretty much all other opinions that this blog has accepted

That's life. Associative, aesthetical, indirect response: The most "unfamiliar" among my siblings once told me: It may make sense to study an artist who for one reason or another didn't attract me.

Not that I ever seriously tried, except analyzing the ritualistic worship by art historians. ;) There still are works of art that seems to call me from far and there are others that don't.

[LeaNder]

I see it likely that Erdogan will let go this whole stuff (Misaq-i-Melli, screwing with the Kurds), once he has changed the Constitution to a Presidential Lifer System.

This puzzles me a bit. I get Misaq-i-Melli, or "screwing with the Kurds", but if I may?

Could you elaborate. Especially since you started out with: "I-ran qa-til". What's are his intentions behind his presidency-for-life? A variant of the Sunni state model, and thus (necessarily?) Iran as enemy?

[turcopolier]

trinlee
"It might be worth distinguishing Arab Muslim culture from *all* Muslims in general. For example, Muslims in Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Malaysia. You may want to think that but IMO you would be incorrect in regard to the specific cultural feature I described. I am not writing here of transient constitutions, political parties or elections. I am talking about a basic disinclination to accept the idea of delegated autonomous power. pl

[Fred]

Babak,

"There are now 6 Kurdish MPs within the Swedish Parliament, but they are polarized. “The Arabs are doing Arabization and Islamization, the Turks pursue nationalist politics, "

The multiculturalists of the left in action. The destruction of Sweden on behalf of cultural marxist ideology continues apace. It has been remarked on before.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2007/jul/3/europes-epitaph/

[kooshy]

FYI
"Many Kurds consider themselves descended from the Medes, an ancient Iranian people,[65] and even use a calendar dating from 612 B.C., when the Assyrian capital of Nineveh was conquered by the Medes.[66] The claimed Median descent is reflected in the words of the Kurdish national anthem: "We are the children of the Medes and Kai Khosrow."[67] The Kurdish languages form a subgroup of the Northwestern Iranian languages like Median."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurds

I have Kurd relatives.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Qandil was captured by Iranians before ISIS emerged.

Per IZ's comment above, the perception in Turley is that PKK is supported by US.

Consider yourself and TTG; with a fondness for Kurds in Syria, and for US in Iraq, with her fondness for Kurds in Erbil.

That only leaves out the issue of who is supporting PKK and KDP.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Yes, they have nothing to do with Iran; that their first names are the names of the historical or legendary kings and heroes of Iran, that their flag is the tricolor of Iran, that the symbol of sun is splashed large on their flag, that their languages are Iranic, that they celeberate Nowruz, that the pants the men wear harken back to pre-Islamic Iran - all of those are just coincidences.

I know it is tough for many Kurds to accept that they are just like Lores or Gilacks. Road to Reality is a hard one when one has been wrong and has been for so long.

[hemeantwell]

Yes, this makes sense to me. Erdogan will not be able to resolve the Kurd problem by force outside of his country, and hopefully not within it now that he's relatively weak post-coup. The YPG will have to tack towards Assad, which they've already been accused of doing by Assad's opposition. That may have been damning at the very onset of the anti-Assad uprising, but (I'm following Gareth Porter here) the subsequent hijacking of the uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist organizations put an end to that issue. From the standpoint of the YPG the situation must look promising, though very delicate and dangerous.

[Cameron Kelley]

I hope I'm not hijacking this thread, but I just read on South Front a claim that 'US-led advisers' have been captured in Aleppo. SST commenters are far more knowledgeable than I am about what's going on in the ME, and I'm curious if anybody else has further information on this. Thanks!

https://southfront.org/breaking-14-us-led-coalition-military-advisers-captured-by-syrian-special-forces-in-aleppo/

[Babak Makkinejad]

In Persian, it is actually called "Cow Tongue Flower"- "Gol Gav Zaban".

[kooshy]

I know base on locals that since 90s French, US, and Israelis have been active in Kurdistan, promoting and encouraging Kurds for a very aggressively semi autonomous federalization, why federalization? Key word for that is access. They know full independence will deny access by carved out states. Turkey, Iran , Iraq and Syria know this well and they know who is pulling and pushing the strings behind the curtain. It's not going to happen, except getting some dumb Kurds and Turks killed. Back in 2006 the line of Truks delivering Kurdish Iraqi oil to
Kirmanshah was over 20 mile long and line of truks delivering Kurdish imports from Iranian ports to IK was longer. They need To figure what access means.

[kooshy]

Mike, Don't miss Taleban, Al Q and Boko Haram, who else can I think of, ah yes Farcs.

[kooshy]

I forgot they know why and who is pushing the Kurds to fill the cavity and get access or link to Mediterranean Sea. IMO, that is what changed Turkey' stupid (totally Turk) policy once they learned US has sent advisers to help Kurds pass the river. And precisely that is the reason Syrians, Iranians and Russians agreed for Turks to pass the border. This folks wouldn't give up feeling sorry for Kurds is just alligator tears.

[The Twisted Genius]

kooshy,

The US has a long and rich history of using and discarding Kurds, almost as long as the history of Kurds abusing each other. The last I remember was in 1996 when the KDP sided with Saddam to go after the PUK. The US launched an operation to rescue some of our PUK allies. Of course they probably wouldn't need rescuing if we didn't encourage them to try to topple Saddam in the first place.

I don't know what our overall plan for the Rojava Kurds is. Assisting a force that is effectively fighting IS is something I can get behind. That fits with my hopelessly anachronistic and romantic notions as an anthropologist and Special Forces officer of an indigenous population telling the rest of the world, "Leave us the fu*k alone!" I have a nagging suspicion there are some in the Pentagon and Foggy Bottom who eventually want to use this area and the YPG/SDF as a new anti-Assad base and force. I hope those people are soon purged out of government service.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Kooshy,
The MAIN reason TSK moved in to Syria was to stop the Kurdish Corridor. Forget neo-ottoman dreams, or deposing Assad. The Army resisted these pressures for half a decade. tayyip has a big mouth with no brain behind it and Putin shuts him up summarily when his rhetoric becomes silly. Most of the population is being kept in the dark about these issues:the Turkish media is as bad as the US MSM when it comes to spinning things.
However, things are changing. We are now seeing a string of suicide attacks in Turkey against security forces by PKK bombers. Some folks must be getting very desperate. The end of the Syrian Gambit is nigh.

Ishmael Zechariah

[mike allen]

Babak Makkinejad - "Qandil was captured by Iranians..."

Yes, a PDKI base near Qandil was overrun there. And now the PKK are given refuge there and they are working with the IRGC against Kurdish nationalists in Iran.

[jld]

Thank you very much!
Not something that could be easily guessed beside such "informed comments" on SST.

[Babak Makkinejad]

This is a fundamental problem of any monist doctrine; how to account for and operate in a world which is, to all appearances, is fragmented and partial.

I wonder if delegated autonomous power could have emerged and lasted in Western Diocletian states without the Legacy of Rome. Certainly the Orthodox and Byzantium went the other way.

[Babak Makkinejad]

You won't get any arguments from me; agitating Kurds here, agitating Kurds there and then there is just the fact that such agitation leaves a bunch of corpses and keeps Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran further and further away from the task of the day - which is the development of their political, scientific, technical, legal, commercial aspects of their countries.

[kooshy]

IZ,
I think I said the same thing, yes IMO the Turkish military was agreed (allowed) to move in to block/ interrupt connection of the two Syrian Kurdish regions on both side of the Euphrates river, which if allowed could eventually conect Sanandaj to Mediterranean Sea. IMO that's not what Kurds dreamed or even wanted ( a bridge too far) but that's what the westerners are telling them you could have. They can't. Turks became sure of the American double game a bit too late.
An earlier related part of this plan, which I have read from Iranian analysts, is that once they (the west) become sure that they can not get a Libyan style UNSC resolution on Syria, the plan B was stated. Plan B was to claim R2P, with money for arms and fighters from KSA and Qatar and EU promises for Turkey' participation, they unleashed ISIL to occupy Jazerah region so they can start a coalition of willing bombers to faciliate bombing under the cover of R2P to protect against ISIS and Assad, justifying illegal invasion of Syria by western proxy and non proxy forces. That plan was got F*ed once the bad old puttin catches on and stepped in.

[kooshy]

Yes sir, I agree , here is what I have been told by some Kurds I know, on how they remember US and US' support for Kurds. First they remember that US did not allow , a UN resolution or even a condemnation of Saddam' chemical attack on Halabja (BTW Halabja means little Halab/Aleppo), which we know US and western media tried at first to blame it on Iran, which like Iran helping PKK don't make sense. Secondly they remember, when after the 1st US Iraq war, after saddam was defeated, US allowed Saddam to have and use its attack helicopters on Kurds and Shia arab villages, Kurds in millions mostly escaped to Iran we all remember that, some stayed and became Iranian citizens and now live in Naghadeh.

[AEL]

When I watch Al Assad on TV, I always get the slight impression that he would rather be running an eye clinic in London than running a country in the middle east.

[mike allen]

Kooshy & Babak -

Kurds do have many cultural and linguistic ties to Iranians. That is not surprising since they have lived so close together for millenia. But those cultural and linguistic ties do not make them Iranian. They do descend from an Iranic people, but so do Pashtuns, Tajiks, Baluchis, and Ossetians who also have ancient ties. But that does not make Kurds or those others Iranian. Some even say that most Europeans stem from pre-Iranic or Aryan backgrounds.

Kurds are recognized internationally as a separate ethnic group despite Tehran's desire to make Iran homogenous.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Yes, it is sad, watching all those Pashtuns wallowing in that miserable life, having been deprived of being part of Iran when their ancestors help destroy the Safavid state.

They missed both on the cultural developments of the last 150 years as well as the oil wealth that befall what they had despised and left behind.

But, per US Army War College study, Afghanistan will fracture - along the Seljuk Boundary Line - by 2019 and the Pashtuns will have their own country to be miserable in.

Afghan-istan - Land of Lamentation.

Tehran is trying to make Iran homogeneous?

Oh yes, where are all those Shia missionaries among the Baluchis, with suitcases full of money, trying to convert them those hard Deobandis into Shia?

And I suppose all those books published in Kurdish, Azeri Turkish, Armenian, Arabic are imported from abroad into Iran.

The country that does its best to suppress diversity is the Azerbaijan Republic - ask the Taleshis there.

[kooshy]

Mike, if it walks like a duck if it talks like a duck it's duck.