The Russian Concept of Reflexive Control - TTG

In 1996 I heard the siren song of the developing field of Information Warfare (IW). The concept intrigued me, but I found it was little more than a conglomeration of well established aspects of warfare. IW was visualized as an image of a Greek temple with five columns. The “five pillars” of IW at that time were OPSEC, PSYOPS, military deception, electronic warfare and physical destruction. See. Nothing new. In retrospect, these early attempts were rather crude and simplistic.

Shortly after that, I had the pleasure and good fortune of meeting Tim Thomas.  He was a Russian FAO and an analyst at the Foreign Military Studies Office at Fort Leavenworth. He was an expert in Soviet/Russian military doctrine and in the Russian equivalent of IW, commonly referred to as information confrontation or information-based warfare. We shared an interest in all things Russian and, between us, had a fair amount of experience dealing with Russians. I told him of my experiences with Russian trained cyberneticists and he introduced me to the concept of reflexive control. This theory has been a subject of study in the Soviet Union for over fifty years. It became the guiding principle in the development of the Soviet Union’s/Russia’s growing capability in information confrontation.

Tim Thomas describes reflexive control in his July 1996 article “Russian Views on Information-based Warfare.” He’s written a lot on this subject since then. 

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"Information manipulation/perception management"

"Disinformation is a Russian technique that manipulates information and misinforms people or groups. Some disinformation procedures are obvious, some unconvincing, and some work through delayed perceptions, rumors, repetition, or arguments. Specific persons or particular social groups can serve as disinformation targets. The purpose of a disinformation campaign is to influence the consciousness and mind of man. In Russia today, where there is an unstable public-political and socio-economic situation, the entire population could serve as the target of influence for an enemy campaign."

"The authorities in Moscow recognize this and are trying to gain control over a most dangerous situation in their view. Clearly, the management of information is essential to their maintenance of stability. Historically, the Soviet Union was very good at developing theories of information management. Their propaganda machine stood at the apex of this effort. One of their most interesting Cold-war methods for managing information and getting people (or an opponent) to do what an action's initiator wanted was described by the theory of reflexive control. Reflexive control is a "branch of the theory of control related to influencing the decisions of others. In a military context, it can be viewed as a means for providing one military commander with the ability to indirectly maintain control over his opponent commander's decision process." Reflexive control involves creating a pattern or providing partial information that causes an enemy to react in a predetermined fashion without the enemy realizing that he is being manipulated. Its aim is to force an enemy commander to make a decision that, through the manipulation of information, was predetermined by the opposing side.“

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Our doctrine of IW, now information operations, has come a long way from those early days of the five pillared temple. Perception management, now a core concept of our doctrine, is a first cousin of reflexive control. And we are equally good at it. 

I share all this with you, my fellow correspondents, so that you may read two articles from “War on the Rocks” with open, yet critical minds. “WHODUNNIT? RUSSIA AND COERCION THROUGH CYBERSPACE” by Robert Morgus and “TROLLING FOR TRUMP: HOW RUSSIA IS TRYING TO DESTROY OUR DEMOCRACY” by Andrew Weisburd, Clint Watts and J.M. Berger describe this year’s series of hacks, leaks and false news as a deliberate Russian information operation targeting the U.S. If you have the time and/or inclination, I suggest you drill down through all the embedded links in the articles. There’s a lot of good stuff there.

As many of you know, I am convinced that all this was the result of a well planned and executed information operation undertaken by the Russian government. I’ve spent a decade working in and around this type of thing and can recognize an elegant information operation when I see one. And elegant it was. No drone assassinations. No extrajudicial kidnappings and imprisonments. No arming of terrorists. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, you magnificent bastard, I salute you.

What I don’t know is the true objective of this operation. Was it to defeat Clinton and elect Trump? Was it to destroy confidence and increase doubt in our political system and/or media? Perhaps it was it something else altogether. One’s answers to these questions seems totally dependent on one’s political inclinations. Since there are so many other factors that brought about our present situation, I doubt we’ll ever know the true motives behind this information operation. Nor will we know its true effectiveness or ineffectiveness. But one thing I can assure all of you, it's happening, baby.

TTG

Comments

[Ishmael Zechariah]

EA,
re: "A great public service directed ONLY at powerful political officials on one side of the aisle"
From this side of the ocean and the Med. we thought that the Wikileaks balanced the huge information operation against Trump conducted with great virtuosity by your side. And you had much better megaphones: AFAIK there was not one MSM US newspaper or news feed-that we could access here-which did not purvey a big load of absolute crap about the Donald daily. You all have some nerve asking for "parity".

It seems to us that he has better information OPSEC than the democrats-and he is not, at this point, a warmonger. Clinton's cackle about Qaddafi being sodomized with a knife, and Albraight's quote about the death of 1/2 mil kids will not be forgotten around here anytime soon.

The blood of those kids is on whose hands EA? Putin's?

Ishmael Zechariah

[Edward Amame]

Col Lang

The coup would be constitutional. And I believe it would then throw the election to the House of Reps. Which would then elect Trump.

[David Habakkuk]

jonst,

I completely agree with you. The notion of the Soviets as master ‘information operations’ people seems to me a complete fantasy.

As a student in 1968-71, I knew a fair number of ‘silly lefties’. I used to say then that they would end up as ‘silly righties’, and with of a lot of them it turned out to be true. But only the smallest minority had any respect for anything the Soviets said. (The contemptuous phrase for remaining Soviet sympathisers on the left was ‘tankies’ – a reference to 1956 and 1968.)

What subsequently emerged was that at the same time a large number of Soviet students had similar reactions – and also, paradoxical as it may seem, that it was precisely among some key figures in the KGB that this was very clearly realised.

In his 2005 study ‘The Soviet Century’, the late great Moshe Lewin discusses a memorandum circulated in November 1968 – the month after I started at university – by Yuri Andropov to the Politburo, on attitudes among students in Odessa, produced by one of them working for the KGB. To ‘top-and-tail’ Lewin’s analysis:

‘Its main message was the total, absysmal failure of the whole party structure and its politico-ideological arsenal among the student body …. Students’ preference for anything Western was hardly surprising given their lack of respect for those they heard criticizing the West.’

What I find utterly bizarre about the kind of writings TTG discusses is that, behind the professions of shock, there appears to be a belief that Soviet-style techniques of ‘information management’ are effective and should be emulated.

One predictable result is that Western élites are completely incapable of realising that they have been triumphantly successful at doing what Suslov and his like utterly failed to do.

You want to liquidate pro-Western sentiment among any politically significant group of Russians? No problem – get rid of the amateurs, hand it over to the professionals. Between them, Larry Summers, Zbigniew Brzezinski and Victoria Nuland can teach Stalin a thing or to about how to liquidate a pro-American ‘fifth column.’

The masterstroke, of course, was to ally with the ‘Azov Battalion’, whose emblem contained clear allusions to not one, but two, key SS images: the ‘Wolfsangel’ and the ‘Black Sun’.

Of course, at this point you definitively lose old British Cold War liberals like me.

For us, the castle at Wewelsburg, which Himmler conceived of as the centre of the new world, to be created following the extermination of the Jewish ‘Weltfeind’, and the liquidation of between 30 and 45 million Slavs, to make possible the creation of an autarkic ‘Third Reich’, is the ‘heart of darkness’.

The ‘Black Sun’ symbol is set into the floor of the ‘Obergruppenführersaal’ at Wewelsburg.

And here there is also an ultimate stupidity. Among other things an old British Cold War liberal like me could talk about at lengths are the complex ambivalences very many people outside the United States have about the influence of American culture on their societies.

But, for God’s sake, there was so much that was immensely attractive about that culture, in the post-war years. In Western Europe, after decades of conflict and murder, its arrival was associated both with an outpouring of wealth unprecedented in human history, and with a restoration of civility that few in 1945 would have had any confidence in anticipating.

Different people, of course, are influenced in different and unpredictable ways – which put questions to do with ‘race’ and ‘ethnicity’ in an odd light. I never could stand John Wayne, but think Robert Mitchum a great tragic actor – and my wife taught me to venerate Jimmy Cagney.

Again, I think that Bob Dylan and Mick Jagger travestied the greatness of American country blues singers – for me, as for others, Blind Willie McTell, Jimmy and Mama Yancey, and Jim Jackson were a revelation. But then, the coming together of black and Jewish influences in the great American musicals is also a fundamental part of modern British culture.

One particular song which means a great deal to many people of my and my wife’s generation is ‘The Party’s Over’, sung by a very great comedienne, Judy Holliday, who died tragically not long after singing it, with music by Jule Steyne. I could go through the list of the original – Jewish – names, of everyone involved in this great song, but that would take too much space.

What I do not understand is how it was that, when throughout the world there were so many people who admired, liked, and loved, what the American experiment had produced, your rulers and élites decided that the lesson of the Soviet retreat and collapse was that, in essence, Stalin was right all along.

[The Twisted Genius]

Eric Newhill,

I get your point about the damage this does as it's transformed into a meme. Even if a Congressional investigation proves beyond a doubt that it never happened, there will always be a substantial segment of the population that will continue to believe it did happen and that it was the sole reason for Trump winning the election. Look at how the meme of Obama being a Muslim from Kenya is still believed by a sizable segment of the population. Both memes may be absurd, but there will always be a cloud of doubt and considerable angst in this country because of them.

I also think the calls to deny that this ever happened contributes to the meme's growth. It just smacks of "the lady doth protest too much." The DNC servers and Podesta email accounts were hacked and information from those sources made their way to Wikileaks and DCLeaks. To deny that is absurd. That alone is enough to keep the conspiracy mills going for years. I like your attitude towards this whole thing. So What? We all do it. No one died. No one even lied. I, too, seriously doubt this turned the election for Trump. Even Michael Moore explained why Trump was going to win well before the election took place. An immediate and thorough Congressional investigation would expose all this and do much to take the wind out of this meme.

[Jack]

Valissa

You're spot on. The political and media establishment are freaking out and being rather silly. Piers Morgan said it well.

"Cast your minds back to a few weeks before the US election, when it never crossed the Hillary camp's elitist, arrogant minds that Trump, the ignorant Neanderthal, could beat her, the woman dubbed 'the most qualified candidate in history' by President Obama. Then Trump sensationally triumphed,..."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4028856/PIERS-MORGAN-Hillary-hypocritical-Democrats-aren-t-defending-American-democracy-foreign-meddling-clear-present-danger-it.html

[The Twisted Genius]

steve g,

I don't consider the Saker part of this or any other IO. Nor are Breitbart News, Zero Hedge or any similar info source part of IO. They have viewpoints which they push, but so does everybody else.

[turcopolier]

EA

If enough electors defected from the will of the voters in their states it would be constitutional but would not be accepted by the Deplorables. pl

[Dr. Puck]

I agree with TTG about Trump. FSorce, I also would have the capability to take in the entirety of Trump's biography and make my own assessment.

Your last argument is a textbook red herring, distracting from the main issues, has Trump conned anybody, has Trump habitually lied.

[turcopolier]

EA

OK. Tell us where McConnell, Pence and Ryan get their "marching orders." pl

[b]

Your argument is Russia COULD have done it and therefore HAS done it. Nonsense.

As for motives: Clinton is about the most hated woman in the U.S. with sky high negative rates. Internationally she is hated by several dozens of actors in dozens of countries.

To then claim that Russia did it because it has an old grudge does not make sense. Besides no one so far claimed that it was a state actor who did it.

DNI only said a state actor may have influenced it. But that is itself a pure guess and conjecture.

Remember all those DDOS (Distributed Denial of Services) attacks in recent times? Estonia had a DDOS attack years ago and that was blamed on Russia and an excuse to build up a NATO cyberwhatever.

But turns out that most, if not all DDOS are rented as hacking services from script kiddies - read about from the expert here: https://krebsonsecurity.com/2016/12/operation-tarpit-targets-customers-of-online-attack-for-hire-services/

The hacks were not sophisticated at all. Only well known tools were used. Someone wanted to know what the DNC was doing and hacked their emails.

Maybe a Sanders supporter? They would have had THE motive.

Giving the stuff to Wikileaks for publication was the 1st choice for anyone who wanted the stolen data published.

Paneta was just a juicy, easy target.

[alba etie]

Lemur
Could you all on the alt right be so kind as to apply the same critical lens to the nexus between the Secretary State to be Tillerson and Exxon Mobil's billions of dollars pending deals with the Russian Oligarchs regarding the Oil extraction in Novva Russ's Artic ? Or hey maybe we could just "Cushy Bear "release El Duce Donald's tax return via their 'useful idiot " Assange ...that would be a start .

[Dr. Puck]

It seems obvious--maybe, only to me--that Trump has more support in the EC than he does in the voting age population.

[alba etie]

Lemur
PS
I meant Cozy Bear (apparently after i did the Google ) - and just to be sure I voted for Bernie Sanders.

[georgeg]

Let me direct you to a mainstream site: Huffington Post. "Reading voraciously, including viewpoints we don't agree with" is more than the average reader can digest. The amount of disinformation and Russophobic drivel passed on is enough to close shop and move away from civilization.....

[alba etie]

Ishmael Zechariah ,
The neocons are a clear & present danger to us all - one of the pair of bloody hands being vetted apparently to be Secretary of State Tillerson's number two is John ( let's bomb Iran ) Bolton .

[steve g]

Thank you.

[Edward Amame]

Col Lang

http://douthat.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/10/29/the-g-o-p-s-economic-policy-problem/?_r=0

http://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/house-gop-a-better-way-tax-cuts-would-overwhelmingly-benefit-top-1-percent

[turcopolier]

EA

Yes. That is right and then the top 1% would spend or invest the money thus benefiting the entire economy. pl

[Dr. Puck]

Good question. The conventional answer has always been the special interests that feed the campaign coffers have significant ability to "order." I note the marching has always been impressive, irrespective of where the orders are coming from. Also, there are the examples provided by the last time the GOP could legislate, four and half years during Bush II.

Before the election I thought draining the swamp meant dialing back the influence of special interests. But, now, there's your question!

[Eric Newhill]

TTG,
I see what you are saying - and why - more clearly now.

I think following a blend of both your and my recommended course of action is to walk the razor's edge, but the right thing to do; for the reasons both of us note.

Strike a balance between a message that the election wasn't decided by Russians and that all major countries (including the US) exert some level of influence on other govt's domestic affairs - and the need to thoroughly investigate (employing people with skills/knowledge such as yours) to understand Russian capabilities and methods.

Now, what do you think the probability of that delicate course of action actually being followed by US politicians and the media really is?

[different clue]

Farooq,

Every point you discovered the cyber Vlads to be hitting is also being hit by various members of and spokesfolk for the alt.right. So there is a fault line for the cyber Vlads to slip in between of right there.

[Walrus]

TTG, thank you for your excellent Tour De Force on information operations. I drilled down into the details of Fireye and APT28 and they appear convincing to me. Yes, Russia has a hacking capability and as Snowden has explained, so do we. However there is a piece missing - evidence that the Russians actually made off with any goods and then made use of the stolen property.

It appears that there is sound evidence of Russian hacking attempts in areas they judge critical to their interests - the attacks leave "fingerprints" in the form of malware.

That Russia would target the DNC? Sure! I can believe that and many other organisations as well, The World Bank, Boeing, The State Department, etc., why not? I'm sure we do likewise. I dumpster dived on my competitors years ago and you would be amazed at the strategic documents they put out in their trash, does that make me a criminal?

So we have Russian fingerprints on the door at the DNC and Chateau Podesta, I'm sure there are NSA ones at Vlads Dacha.

Don't you think it is perhaps crude and dangerous by Russian standards, assuming they did get the goods from the DNC, to blow their whole operation to elect Trump? We seem to be indeed in a hall of mirrors.

[different clue]

Dr. Puck,

I haven't kept any patient track of Mr. Trump for lo these many years. But I am aware of some lies. Trump's signing on to the Birtherism Campaign ( which I first read about at Larry Johnson's No Quarter blog) was adopting and advancing a lie-campaign for years.

Trump lied about thousands of Muslims celebrating the 9/11 attacks in New Jersey.

I feel, with High Confidence, that Trump has lied numerous other times about numerous other things.

And yet I voted for Trump anyway. Why would I do such a thing, knowing all this? Because a President Clinton would have posed a deadlier danger to my survival. So I feel my ability to complain about all the Trump Outrages and Upper Class Aggression to come will be limited, because I knew the vote was dangerous when I cast it.

[Nancy K]

I didn't vote for Trump, and don't like him but I completely believe he will be our President. I think many of you on the right are just getting paranoid and love all the conspiracy theories. The electorates are going to vote the way their states want them to. I also believe that Russia was involved in hacks and wanted Trump to win, but it would be very difficult if not impossible to prove that Trump requested this assistance or had anything to do with it. If that is ever proven in time than most likely he would be impeached and Pence would become president, God forbid.

[turcopolier]

Dr. Puck
That may be true about the popular vote but it remains irrelevant. This is still a constitutional federal republic and neither you, nor EA not any of the rest of you have any ability to alter that. pl