Administration. Remains the Same.
Scenario Turn 3
January 2 to 10 January 12
The Syrian government has now made it clear through broadcasts on SANA that it intends to clear Idlib Province and other west Syria pockets of jihadi control before the US presidential inauguration and then turn its attention to elimination of IS in eastern Syria hopefully with some degree of coordination with the US led coalition.
Large scale leaflet drops began on 1 January on known areas of jihadi control in Idlib Province exhorting jihadis and in fact all those now under arms in the rebellion to surrender under a government offer of amnesty with UN supervision and to return to their homes if not known to be foreign fighters or jihadi group cadres. The same offer is being made on radio and television 24/7.
Government forces continue offensive action along a number of axes in Idlib Province:
1. Against Jisr al-Shugur. The Syrian Marines continue to be the lead element on this axis. Progress is slow but pressure is continuous. Earlier reports of the presence of Russian armor following the marines have proven to be inaccurate. The vehicles involved are a 12 gun battalion of Russian self propelled 152 mm. howitzers who are engaged in firing into the Jisr al-Shugur defenses in support of the marines and NDF militia in this column.
2. Around the western and northwestern perimeters of government held Aleppo forward pressure continues at what might be called a measured pace.
3. LTG Suheil's Tiger Forces/Desert Hawks division attacked SW along Axis M5 on 2 January followed by the Republican Guard brigade that had taken Khan Touman on 1 January. A column of Heavy Equipment Transporters (HET) accompanied the force.
(Taftanaz AB)
4. Russian 106th Guards Airborne Division was moved to the Lattakia and Tartous base areas from Tula in Russia in a well coordinated and covert sea and air transfer and was inserted on 3 January into an airhead on and around the former Syrian AF Taftanaz air base five miles east of Al-Fuah' village. Elements of the 45th Guards Airborne Brigade, which were reconnoitering the area since Christmas, seized strongpoints and marked the DZ. A Russian airborne battalion then parachuted onto the airfield to secure it. This was followed by helicopter insertions of the rest of that infantry regiment's men as well as sling loads of much of the division's artillery and mortars. Air landing operations began on the 3,000 foot runway within a few hours bringing in many of the division's armored vehicles. The division's artillery ranged to the Route 60 and M5 approaches from the north as well as in defense of the two Shia villages five miles west of the airhead. Revetments for artillery and aircraft are under construction. 106th airborne division minus the regiment at Taftanaz remains in reserve around Tartous.
5. Spetsnaz teams are adjusting fires for airborne artillery as well as the Russian 152. mm. SP artillery supporting the Syrian Marines and NDF west of Jisr al-Shugur.
6. On 3 January 5th Assault Corps makes steady progress across Idlib Province toward Idlib City against resistance that seems much weakened by the need to send reinforcements to the jihadis defending against threats to Jisr al-Shugur, Taftanaz and the oncoming menace of Suheil Hassan's task force.
7. Russian and Syrian tactical air continues to strike throughout Idlib Province on 2 and 3 January with a focus on road interdiction. Russian strategic air (Blinders) flying from Russian and Iranian bases struck repeatedly on 3 January along the M5 highway targeting jihadi reinforcements going north to engage the Tiger Force coming south to meet them. There were several Russian AF TU-95 Bear heavy bomber attacks on the St. Simeon Mountains west of the M5 crossing of those heights.
On 4 and 5 January there are repeated assaults against both the Taftanaz airhead and the villages of Takfaya and Al-Fu'a. these are repulsed with heavy losses to the lightly armed and somewhat disorganized jihadis. These assaults appear to have been executed to cover the movement north of a large group of insurgents past the flank threats of the Taftanaz airhead and the Shia villages.
On 6 January Suheil Hassan's task force fought a large and sustained meeting engagement astride the M5 highway NE of the Taftanaz airhead and within supporting range of the airhead's artillery and armed helicopters. After several hours of grinding the insurgent lines fell apart and they began to flee south on the M5 engaged along the way by ambushes set up by Spetsnaz, Russian airborne infantry and Hizbullah commandos brought into the area by helicopters. Jihadi casualties were very heavy and many attempted to surrender.
From 7 January onward 5th Assault Corps moved steadily northward toward Idlib City against diminishing resistance that demonstrated a weakness at least partly brought on by the heavy losses experienced in the Aleppo battle and the defeat suffered on 6 January NE of Taftanaz.
As 5th Assault Corps approaches the Jisr-al-Shugur to Idlib City road from the south on 10 January, jihadi forces withdrew from Jisr al-Shugur to avoid being by-passed and cut off.
On 11 January jihadi forces evacuated Idlib City and withdrew to the north through ambushes and interdicting airstrikes.
On 12 January 5th Assault Corps entered Idlib City.
Requirement: Give your opinion as to what further actions R+6 will take before the game ends on 18 January in game time and what the political situation will be on 18 January. pl & TTG
Yep, Gnadenschuss.
Genade is gnaden in Dutch
Expect Turkey to come with real proof about the US supporting ISIS (around 2013 they likely did, lateri think/hope not)
Posted by: charly | 29 December 2016 at 02:12 PM
Babak Makkinejad,
Well . . . if the legitimate SAR government ends up winning . . . or at least viably surviving in a powerful way . . . that would be one large difference from the Spanish Civil War right there.
The Francoist victory ENcouraged the Fascist and Nazi forces of that time. A jihadoterrorist defeat in Syria would DIScourage the WesterBorg, the Global Axis of Jihad and the Cannibal Liver Eating Jihadis of today.
Posted by: different clue | 29 December 2016 at 02:33 PM
BM,
This is izzie propoganda being peddled as "fact". It will find few takers. (mainly) Iranian rocket artillery, transported across Syria and deployed by Nasrallah & Co. is the main issue concerning izzies. It is reported to be a comprehensive arsenal. They have no way of neutralizing it w/out unacceptable pain. Thus, they would like to deploy US forces- an unlikely scenario, especially w/ Trump being the president-elect.
All; Russians do not permit Turkish air to operate in Syria. Exceptions are granted on a case by case basis. If that changes,and I do not expect it to change in the next few months- it will be a sign of interesting developments. FYI, TSK is not interested in bleeding for tayyip's glory. Their current mission is dealing with Borg proxies across a broad spectrum and prevent the partitioning of Turkey along the Clean Break/PNAC lines.
Ishmael Zechariah
Posted by: Ishmael Zechariah | 29 December 2016 at 02:49 PM
The author, doubtlessly the cream of Spanish intellectuals - is a Catalan, affiliated with another radical party there.
I agree that he is an uninformed fool; did someone pay him to write this article?
Or is he just the usual Extreme Liberal Fantasist?
Hard to say.
He is careful not to say that he is against Shia Islam or Islam in general - but he is; like so many other people in Spain who know nothing about the World of Islam since the Reconquest.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 29 December 2016 at 03:22 PM
I haven't peeked at the Turn 3 ending Sit.
On 13JAN Tiger Forces/Desert Hawks Task Force disengages, loads tracked vehicles on transporters and moves back to Aleppo.
The Syrian Marine Force Task Group will on 13JAN attack along route 56 to secure the border crossing at Haram.
5th Assault Corps will attack on 13 JAN from the vicinity of Idlib along route 60 to secure road junctions at Sarmada and Tal Abarama, supported by artillery and helicopter gunships based at Taftanz.
On 15JAN 106th Guards Airborne Division minus elements at Taftanz will be airlifted to Aleppo Airport.
On 16JAN Tiger Forces Task Group attacks toward Al Bab and occupies the town on 18JAN.
On 18JAN Idlib Governate is declared liberated. Rebel remnants are surrendering or attempting to flee to Turkey. Al Bab is in SAA control and preparations are under way to attack through Manbij ot the Euphrates. Intensive negotiations with Turkey and Kurdish factions start with the aim of re-establishing SAG sovereignty in the area. The new American administration will, on 20JAN, be required to deal with these facts on the ground.
Posted by: William Fitzgerald | 30 December 2016 at 09:43 AM