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30 December 2016


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Pundita -

Yes, it appears the Syrian regime and the Russkies are leaving Idlib to stew in its own juices. Meanwhile the US led coalition just conducted airstrikes there to take out Abu Omar al-Turkistani, a commander in the Fatah al-Sham Front. He had been supported by Erdogan so this will further drive a wedge between Turkey and the west.




humor me and use just one name. to do otherwise is confusing. So, on the basis of reporting as of 2 January you conclude that the jihadis will be left to enjoy Idlib Province. Well, we will see but IMO opinion if the R+6 do that they will eventually lose the war and the Syrian Government will be destroyed. pl


Colonel -

R+6 may well decide to take advantage of the bedlam now ongoing in Idlib province. Or not? Many Kurdish sources suspect they made a deal with Erdogan to let him evacuate his proxies from there before going in. I take it all in with a grain of salt. No telling which way it will go.


Mike, I don't know how you drew that conclusion from the FARS report I posted; it looks just the opposite to me from that report; i.e., that the militant groups believe the SAA coalition is coming after them in Idlib.

I think that's the importance of the FARS report; it suggests that the Iranian military has good reasons to believe that the bad guys are decamping en masse from Idlib City.

I find that to be stunning news, although it comports with this war game that the Col. and TTG put together, which was why I sent them the report. It's as if they had a crystal ball because if you go back and read Sam Heller's report on Idlib, which if I recall was published near the end of Nov., these terrorists had really settled into Idlib. Now suddenly they're ripping up railroad ties and carrying off the light fixtures.


Pundita -

My conclusions came not from the FARS report that you posted. They came from other reports of regime pushes against rebels in other parts of Syria. Plus from the many Kurdish twitter accounts and websites that are telling of being attacked by Turkish proxies that had come out of E. Aleppo.

If Jihadis are leaving Idlib, IMHO it is due to a deal by Putin & Erdogan.

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