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17 December 2016

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kao_hsien_chih

Eric,

You are mistaken. I explicitly said that you SHOULD stratify by parties. The attitudinal bunk was brought up by someone else trying to counter my argument and I recall that you posted that I pointed out what was on your mind. You can search for the old posts yourself if you don't believe me.

What I brought up afterwards was that 1) In 2012, Obama did in fact outperform his predicted votes when stratified by party affiliation; 2) this was repeated in 2016 by Trump. Simply trying to predict the votes by party would have shown Trump losing the votes, few thought hey might be, that delivered him the victory in the Midwestern states: this is exactly the mistake of the sort I'm trying to draw attention to.

The vast majority of the voters vote party. This is exactly why one SHOULD ALWAYS stratify by party. But this misses the subtle twists where a critical minority behaves differently. To say otherwise is to mistake Trump for Romney, which, apparently, some of the self-claimed Trump partisans seem to think. This band of real "Trump voters" are few, but critical--without them, 2016 would have been a near repeat of 2012. I'm completely confused as to why some people allegedly supporting Trump think that he should be treated like any other Republican.

Eric Newhill

Kao,

Not just stratify, but also representation in the sample proportional to the population; or sample strata weighted to reflect the proportions in the population.

I apologize if I have misrepresented what you said. I always enjoy reading your comments, but sometimes I miss the subtleties and nuances in them.

Richard Sale

There is no assumption involves=d.

Richard Sale

Richard Sale

that is news to me, but thank you. I try to write from the heart.

Richard

Richard Sale

At times they do. They caused the working classes to lose faith in progress.

Richard Sale

Richard Sale

I misquoted the Decleartion.

Richard

Richard Sale

That quote was from Trump. It isn't mine.

You are so touchy, Tyler.

Richard

Richard Sale

thank you.

Richard

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