Sic Semper Tyrannis

HARPER: NO MORE EXCUSES FOR BIBI

For the past eight years, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been able to retain power with a shrinking and ever-more extremist coalition of settlers, religious parties and his own Likud by fending off critics.  Hardline critics in his own fragile coalition have pressed for even more extreme territorial grabs in the West Bank and Jerusalem and have in some cases demanded mass expulsions of Palestinians from inside the Green Line.  And Netanyahu has been able to explain to them that, while his heart is with them, he cannot go to such extremes because of pressure from the Obama Administration in Washington.  Never mind that the Obama Administration never really put any serious pressure on Israel, and poured more money than any previous administration into Israeli security.  Bibi cultivated his personal animus towards Obama and Obama's personal animus towards him into a balancing act that kept him in power, even as a growing number of Israelis, including within the powerful security establishment, became more and more disillusioned with him.

Well now, at least as of January 20, 2017, even that feeble excuse is gone.  With the appointment of David Friedman as the new U.S. Ambassador to Israel, Netanyahu has an ally, not a critic, coming to town.  Donald Trump has contributed to Israeli settlement schools through his charities, and he vows that he will actually implement what every Presidential candidate promises and then drops once in office: to move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem.

This apparent "blessing" could come at a very high price for Netanyahu.  No longer able to blame the United States for his "moderation" of his coalition radicals, Netanyahu now must defend his position upfront.  And the Attorney General of Israel is expected to soon decide whether to follow National Police investigators recommendations and indict Netanyahu on corruption and graft charges.  The last time he was ousted from power, it was on similar corruption charges.

With or without Netanyahu, Israeli is facing an existential decision: to accept a two-state solution and retain a Jewish majority state of Israel, or to go for annexation and repression of a growing Palestinian Arab majority (former President Jimmy Carter called it "apartheid").  Faced with the same dilemma, Netanyahu's rival Ariel Sharon had decided on the core tenet of Zionism: a Jewish majority.  He unilaterally withdrew from the Gaza Strip, and even sent in Israeli Defense Force units to clear out the Gaza settlers who refused to accept relocation.  In a speech in Washington a few years back, a retired IDF General told the audience that Israel has similar plans for removing West Bank settlers from areas to be turned over to the Palestinians.  If Israel were to repeat the Sharon example and unilaterally pull out of significant portions of the West Bank--without negotiations or UN intervention--who would object?

The UN Security Council resolution passed this month should serve as a warning: it is becoming less and less feasible to maintain the status quo of creeping settlement expansion and territorial grabs for much longer.  Netanyahu should not count on a President Donald Trump covering his back at the UN.  It's just not on Trump's list of priorities.  If he could throw Rudy Giuliani and Chris Christie under the bus, he could do the same with Bibi. 

Operation "Borders of Hatay" Turn 3 Ending situation and "Hot Wash"

Game situation on 18 January, 2017.

1.  Following Task Force Suheil's crushing victory over advancing jihadi reinforcements on the M5 axis east of the Takhtanaz airhead,  the task force was loaded on the HETs and other trucks that had followed it and transported back through Aleppo past the Kurdish YPG  held Sheikh Maqsood neighborhood at the north end of the city and up through the Syrian Government  and Kurdish controlled territory to the north on their way to the Minagh military airfield which was in the control of the Efrin Kurds.  This cooperation was made possible by the Assad Government's indication to the Syrian Kurds that some degree of autonomy for them would be granted in a post-war Syria.  This route allowed the Suheil Task force to reach Minagh without  further fighting and casualties.  At Minagh the Suheil Force went into national and area  reserve to refit and rest.  From this position they could move in several directions to influence future outcomes. Soldiers' families have been flown to Minagh for family time.

2.  Some 5th Assault Corps units and the Syrian Marines invested Iblid City to control jihadis trapped within while negotiations are conducted for their surrender.

3. 5th Corps minus those units by-passed Idlib City to the east and relieved  Takfaya and al-Fu'a village while being supported from the Taftanaj airhead with artillery and air support to include SU-25 Frogfoot.   

4. As soon as the 5th Corps relieved the Shia pocket, the Russians launched an assault in echelon of two battalion tactical groups (BTG) from Taftanaz towards Al Dana some 30 km to the north. The high ground along the Bab al-Hawa Highway just south of Al Dana was taken by a battalion from the uncommitted airborne regiment of the 106th inserted by helicopter. All this was preceded by intense reconnaissance-sabotage activities of Spetsnaz teams of the 45th Brigade. The aim of the operation was to screen the flank of the 5th Assault Corps’ final push to the Bab al-Hawa crossing and to prevent any jihadi reinforcement of the crossing from northern Idlib and Aleppo provinces. The lead BTG reached Al Dana in less than 24 hours. The Russian airborne troops let unarmed refugees and jihadist supporters stream towards the border, even assisting them at times. Armed jihadists attempting to move north with the refugees were dealt with quickly and lethally. As soon as this operation was completed, Russia Today began broadcasting high quality footage of dramatic military action of the BMD-4M airborne assault vehicles, 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar systems and Night Hunter attack helicopters interspersed with images of Russian paratroopers aiding civilian refugees. Correspondents reminded their viewers of the words of the incoming American Secretary of Defense, “No better friend, no worse enemy.”   

5.  Syrian 5th Corps proceeded to the north pushing irreconcilable jihadis and their supporters before them like herding cats.  From Idlib the Bab a-l-Hawa crossing into Hattay, Province, Turkey is about 20 miles as the crow flies (ATCF) or 30 mile by the route to Al-Dana.  In response to this oncoming flight of AQ connected jihadis the Turks tried to close their border except for emergency medical attention in Antakya (ancient Antioch)  Syria has announced that it will allow the creation of refugee camps under UN supervision and sealed off by the SAA. 

6. In the period of this turn Iran with the consent of the Iraqi government relieved Deir-al Zor from the east with a large Iranian task force.  The US objected but was ignored. The Iranians then moved NW toward Raqqa and west to link up with the R+6 west of Palmyra.

7.  By 18 January the situation in western Syria has been consolidated by the SAR with minor pockets of resistance being mopped up.

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When you come in from the field in a US Army field exercise, the first thing you do is take your vehicles to the motor pool to wash all the mud or dust from them.  The officers go to the motor pool with the men and usually stand around watching the work and discussing the just finished field problem.  It is thought that it is best to get fresh impressions while memories are still "wet."   Formal reports and analyses are written later.

Points:

1.  The long cherished mantra and childish belief of the Poly/Sci/IR/State Department/NSC (Borgist) establishment that war does not provide an answer is incorrect.  All of American history:  War of Independence, Civil War, Spanish American War, US War Against the Filipino People, WW1, WW2, Vietnam, etc. all demonstrate that war is often decisive in history.  For someone to believe that it is not is simply either a refection of what might be called over-education or a lack of knowledge of actual history.

2.  The 29 December cease fire in Syria does not affect our game play since it does not apply to IS generally and AQ connected jihadis in western Syria.

"Has Obama betrayed Israel?" Henry Siegman

 

"Is it not high time for Israel’s public to wake up to Netanyahu’s deceptions? The countries that voted for this Security Council resolution are not anti-Semitic outliers. They included every major democratic country that belongs to the Security Council. Not one of them voted for the Zionism is Racism resolution, to which Netanyahu so demagogically compared this resolution. Are UK Prime Minister Theresa May or German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose foreign minister warmly welcomed the Security Council’s action, anti-Semites? It was only yesterday that Netanyahu boasted of his friendship with Russia’s Putin and China’s Xi Jinping, who voted for the resolution. Are they now Israel’s enemies?

If there has been a betrayal in this latest chapter of America’s relations with Israel, it is Netanyahu who has betrayed President Obama."  Henry Siegman

------------------

I used to work with Siegman in his peace mongering expeditions across the ME and NA.  I have a lot of respect for him.  He is an ordained rabbi, whatever ordained means in this context.  He was a US Army chaplain in the Korean War.  He volunteered for deployment to Korea with the Eighth Army.  He has relentlessly pursued justice for the Palestinians because as an ardent Zionist he thinks that if there is not justice Israel is doomed in the long run.  I haven't talked to him for a long time but this is vintage Siegman.

IMO there will be neither peace nor justice in the Holy Land.  IMO there is not enough good will between the sides to make a peace in which neither side can claim to have vanquished the other.  I have been saying that that for twenty years or so.  There was a Camelot moment when Ehud Barak was PM and Teddy Kolleck was mayor of Jerusalem when it seemed to be just barely possible that there might be a peace without victors, but the revisionist Zionists like Bibi and Naftali Bennett rallied and that moment passed. 

I was recently tasked by someone I trusted with the crime of "approaching anti-Semitism"  in my 2 November, 2016 post. "Marc Rich, Clinton and Israel."

"A plague o'both their houses."  pl  

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/has-obama-betrayed-israel-the-un-18872

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2016/11/httpnypostcom20160117after-pardoning-criminal-marc-rich-clintons-made-millions-off-friends.html

Last Concert

I prefer "Katyusha." 

https://youtu.be/ae833ktGAdA

http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Katyusha+Song+YouTube&&view=detail&mid=A2A32559D8A0CC58E61EA2A32559D8A0CC58E61E&FORM=VRDGAR

pl

Request

 

Many of us here are old.  Please arrange that when you go someone will tell us so that we can properly  mourn.  pl

Christmas in Damascus this year.

http://www.euronews.com/2016/12/26/aleppo-celebrates-christmas-as-assad-visits-damascus-convent

pl

Operation "Borders of Hatay" Turn 3

Administration.  Remains the Same.

Scenario Turn 3

January 2 to 10 January 12

The Syrian government has now made it clear through broadcasts on SANA that it intends to clear Idlib Province and other west Syria pockets of jihadi control before the US presidential inauguration and then turn its attention to elimination of IS in eastern Syria hopefully with some degree of coordination with the US led coalition.

Large scale leaflet drops began on 1 January on known areas of jihadi control in Idlib Province exhorting jihadis and in fact all those now under arms in the rebellion to surrender under a government offer of amnesty with UN supervision and to return to their homes if not known to be foreign fighters or jihadi group cadres.  The same offer is being made on radio and television 24/7.

Government forces continue offensive action along a number of axes in Idlib Province:

1.  Against Jisr al-Shugur.  The Syrian Marines continue to be the lead element on this axis.  Progress is slow but pressure is continuous.  Earlier reports of the presence of Russian armor following the marines have proven to be inaccurate.  The vehicles involved are a 12 gun battalion of Russian self propelled 152 mm. howitzers who are engaged in firing into the Jisr al-Shugur defenses in support of the marines and NDF militia in this column.

2. Around the western and northwestern perimeters of government held Aleppo forward pressure continues at what might be called a measured  pace.

3.  LTG Suheil's Tiger Forces/Desert Hawks division attacked SW along Axis M5 on 2 January followed by the Republican Guard brigade that had taken Khan Touman on 1 January.  A column of Heavy Equipment Transporters (HET) accompanied the force. 

(Taftanaz AB)

4.  Russian 106th Guards Airborne Division was moved to the Lattakia and Tartous base areas from Tula in Russia in a well coordinated and covert sea and air transfer and was inserted on 3 January into an airhead on and around the former Syrian AF Taftanaz air base five miles east of Al-Fuah' village.  Elements of the 45th Guards Airborne Brigade, which were reconnoitering the area since Christmas, seized strongpoints and marked the DZ. A Russian airborne battalion then parachuted onto the airfield to secure it.  This was followed by helicopter insertions of the rest of that infantry regiment's men as well as sling loads of much of the division's artillery and mortars.  Air landing operations began on the 3,000 foot runway within a few hours bringing in many of the division's armored vehicles.  The division's artillery ranged to the Route 60 and M5 approaches from the north as well as in defense of the two Shia villages five miles west of the airhead.  Revetments for artillery and aircraft are under construction. 106th airborne division minus the regiment at Taftanaz remains in reserve around Tartous. 

5.  Spetsnaz teams are adjusting fires for airborne  artillery as well as the Russian 152. mm. SP artillery supporting the Syrian Marines and NDF west of  Jisr al-Shugur.  

6.  On 3 January 5th Assault Corps makes steady progress across Idlib Province toward Idlib City against resistance that seems much weakened by the need to send reinforcements to the jihadis defending against threats to Jisr al-Shugur, Taftanaz and the oncoming menace of Suheil Hassan's task force. 

7.  Russian and Syrian tactical air continues to strike throughout Idlib Province on 2 and 3 January with a focus on road interdiction.  Russian strategic air (Blinders) flying from Russian and Iranian bases struck repeatedly on 3 January along the M5 highway targeting jihadi reinforcements going north to engage the Tiger Force coming south to meet them.  There were several Russian AF TU-95 Bear heavy bomber attacks on the St. Simeon Mountains west of the M5 crossing of those heights. 

On 4 and 5 January there are repeated assaults against both the Taftanaz airhead and the villages of Takfaya  and Al-Fu'a.  these are repulsed with heavy losses to the lightly armed and somewhat disorganized jihadis.  These assaults appear to have been executed to cover the movement north of a large group of insurgents past the flank threats of the Taftanaz airhead and the Shia villages.

On 6 January Suheil Hassan's task force fought a large and sustained meeting engagement astride the M5 highway NE of the Taftanaz airhead and within supporting range of the airhead's artillery and armed helicopters.  After several hours of grinding the insurgent lines fell apart and they began to flee south on the M5 engaged along the way by ambushes set up by Spetsnaz, Russian airborne infantry and Hizbullah commandos brought into the area by helicopters.  Jihadi casualties were very heavy and many attempted to surrender.

From 7 January onward 5th Assault Corps moved steadily northward toward Idlib City against diminishing resistance that demonstrated a weakness at least partly brought on by the heavy losses experienced in the Aleppo battle and the defeat suffered on 6 January NE of Taftanaz.

As 5th Assault Corps approaches the Jisr-al-Shugur to Idlib City road from the south on 10 January, jihadi forces withdrew from Jisr al-Shugur to avoid being by-passed and cut off.

On 11 January jihadi forces evacuated Idlib City and withdrew to the north through ambushes and interdicting airstrikes.

On 12 January 5th Assault Corps entered Idlib City.

Requirement:  Give your opinion as to what further actions R+6 will take before the game ends on 18 January in game time and what the political situation will be on 18 January.  pl & TTG 

Minuit, Chretiens - Jackie Evancho

This was always sung at Midnight Mass in Sanford, Maine when I was a boy.  The man who sang it had an even more haunting voice.  pl

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_Q7AFys6bA

 

 pl

Operation "Borders of Hatay" - Turn 2

 

Administration.  All remains the same.

Scenario Turn 2.

Christmas Day to 1 January.

R+6 elements have continued to eliminate pockets of jihadi/unicorn resistance in the  Damascus region with many former opposition fighters accepting government pardons and amnesty.  Those not willing to do so have been bussed north into Idlib Province.  Most of the 5th Assault Corps of the SAA moved north into Hama Directorate after 25 December and attacked to eliminate the Rastan Pocket just north of Homs. By 1 January the pocket was largely gone and the 5th Corps had deployed most of its forces northward to the southern border of Idlib Province where they were positioned by New Year's Eve.

Evacuations from east Aleppo had largely ended by New Year's Eve with UN observer parties wandering about searching for mass graves in east Aleppo and getting drunk at New Year's Eve parties in the nightclubs of the western part of the city.

YPG/SDF forces captured the Tabqa dam on the Euphrates River on  the day after Christmas.

Deir al-Zor remained firmly in government hands having been reinforced with air delivered supplies and equipment.

The newly promoted Tiger Force Commander, Fareeq (LTG) Suheil al-Hassan was seen in the streets of Aleppo in the days immediately following Christmas leading many to conclude that the reports of his troops (Tiger Forces and Desert Hawks) having remained in the Damascus area were a ruse de guerre.

The day after Christmas jihadi forces attempted to take the two Shia villages of Kafraya and al-Fu'a just north of Idlib City by storm.  They were repulsed after hours of fighting with losses on both sides.  Russian airborne engineers were airlifted into the villages the next day as well as Hizbullah and IRGC troops to bolster the defenses of the two villages.  The engineers have used farm vehicles and explosives to demolish a number of roadside buildings along the 4700 ft. stretch of  straight road between the villages.  This road is in use as of New Year's Eve as an improvised airstrip for STOL aircraft and helicopters.

SOHR in London has been reporting in late December that Russian Spetznaz and Hizbullah raiding and reconnaissance parties have been engaged in acts of assassination of local jihadi leaders all over Idlib Province and in several cases have left messages pinned to the bodies designed to implicate rival jihadi groups in the area.  Among the places raided was the area between the old Taftanaz air base east of the two Shia villages and the national M5 highway a few miles east of the air base.

Near the Bab al-Hawa border crossing three Turkish border guards were abducted the day after Christmas.  They were found hanging from telephone poles on the Syrian side of the line.  On the chest of the senior man was pinned a note in Turkish, Arabic and Russian that read "Measure for Measure." 

It was reported on SANA on New Year's Eve that it is the opinion of the R+6 allies that the jihadis/the unicorns and their foreign supporters are merely stalling for time with talk of nation wide cease fires and negotiations and that the stalling is just an attempt to gain time to consolidate jihadi power in Idlib Province.  SANA stated that the Syrian Government and its friends would act in accordance with this belief.

New Year's Day.

Coordinated concentric attacks began at Beginning Morning Nautical Twilight  (BMNT) all around the perimeter of Idlib Province:

1.  East from Lattakia in the direction of Jisr al-Shugur.  The Syrian Marines seem to be the lead element, but there are reports of Russian armor with them.

2. North by 5th Assault Corps in the general direction of Idlib City.  Initial priority of supporting fires seems to be tasked to them.

3.  All around the western and NW perimeters of the government positions at Aleppo City, attacks began en echelon from south to north in a series of rolling offensives apparently designed to draw jihadi attention and reserves toward the north.  R+6 forces have had some success in all these attacks.   Khan Touman on the M5 highway fell to the Republican Guard at 1000 AM.   Souhail's mobile reserve remained unlocated and uncommitted by the end of the day.

Russian air activity remained heavy throughout the day.

Requirement.  State your opinion as to the likely development of game action in the period beginning 2 January to 10 January.  pl &TTG

 

HARPER: FBI 9/11 PROBE OF SAUDI ROLE A DECADE LATER

On December 19, the Florida Bulldog, an online news publication, released an October 2012 FBI document, revealing that the Bureau's investigation into Saudi support for the September 11, 2001 terrorists continued for at least a decade after the Joint Congressional Inquiry completed their report and eight years after the 9/11 Commission report partially exonerated the Saudi regime.  Attorneys for the Florida publication filed a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit in Federal Court earlier this year, to obtain records relating to the Bureau's internal 9/11 Review Commission.

That internal review commission, chaired by former Reagan Administration Attorney General Edwin Meese, denied that there were new leads on the 9/11 attack, the worst terrorist assault on U.S. territory in history, and sought to discredit an FBI memo citing a second Sarasota, Florida Saudi businessman with close dealings with the Royal Family, who hosted lead hijacker Mohammed Atta and other 9/11 terrorists, and who fled the United States weeks before the attacks.

As part of the Court-ordered document release, the FBI turned over a heavily redacted copy of an FBI "Updates and Initiatives" report dated October 5, 2012 (which was not scheduled to be declassified until December 31, 2037).  That document showed that the FBI was still actively investigating leads on 9/11 co-conspirators, and that at least two individuals had been identified as collaborators of two of the hijackers who lived in San Diego for more than a year, prior to the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.  At least one of those newly identified individuals was working on behalf of Saudi intelligence agents Osama Basnan and Omar al-Bayoumi, and was assigned to assist hijackers Khalid al-Mihdhar and Nawaf al-Hazmi in their "day-to-day" activities.  Basnan and al-Bayoumi were subjects of the recently declassified 28-page chapter from the original December 2002 Joint Inquiry Report, which was suppressed by Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama until July of this year.  The two Saudi spies were paid at least $50,000 by then-Saudi Ambassador to the United States Prince Bandar bin-Sultan, and one of the pair received regular monthly "salary and expense" payments from a Saudi Ministry of Defense and Aviation contractor.

Although the names of many of the newly identified contacts with the San Diego terrorists were blacked out of the document, two names were released, because both have criminal ties.  Osama "Sam" Mustafa owned a gas station near San Diego, where hijacker al-Hazmi worked in 2000.  Mustafa was already a subject of FBI terrorism investigations prior to that time frame, and in 2012, Mustafa was arrested in Tampa, Florida on charges he was part of a $17 million tax fraud scheme.  Convicted a year later, Mustafa skipped out on a bond and remains a fugitive to this day.  He was sentenced ultimately to 20 years in prison.

The other individual, Mohdar Abdullah, was identified in the FBI document as one of two people assigned by al-Bayoumi on February 4, 2000 to assist the two San Diego-based hijackers in their daily lives.  Abdullah, the FBI report explained, "played a key role in facilitating the daily lives aned assisting future Flight 77 hijackers." Abdullah was arrested by the FBI on September 19, 2011 and deported on immigration fraud charges.  While in detention awaiting deportation, according to the FBI document, "he bragged to two fellow inmates that he assisted the hijackers.  The FBI and SDNY have debriefed these individuals."

The heavily redacted FBI four-page memo, which is one of an estimated 1,100 documents to be released to the Florida Bulldog under the FOIA suit, referenced investigations still underway in Copenhagen, Denmark; London, England; and New York City.

Members of Congress are continuing to work with former U.S. Senator and Florida Governor Bob Graham on pursuing full release of all of the still-classified materials relating to 9/11.  Graham told the Bulldog that "This [document] has never been disclosed before and it's to the contrary of everything the FBI has produced so far that has indicated that 9/11 is history.  It's interesting that it took them 11 years to get there, and a FOIA to get this information to the public."

While the newly released document shows that the FBI continued to develop new leads on the network of support for the hijackers more than a decade after the attacks, and it reinforced leads first contained in the long-suppressed 28 pages, detailing possible Saudi regime backing for the terrorists, it more importantly suggests that U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies will be under renewed pressure to make full disclosure--no matter how it impacts on the already strained U.S.-Saudi relationship.

http://www.floridabulldog.org/2016/12/new-documents-show-u-s-investigated-support-network-911-hijackers-in-2012/

 

 

Christmas in Aleppo - Attention Joe Scarborough

 

A video is worth a thousand words.

Well, pilgrims, this is the Aziziya neighborhood in West Aleppo. It is a very multi-confessional district.  I particularly like the brass band in Santa suits.  They appear to be playing the Syrian National Anthem.  Note the two comely teen aged girl scouts standing near the band.  The display of flags is interesting;  Syria, Russia, Hizbullah.  One of our German correspondents on SST informed us the other day that there are now some Christian members of Hizbullah, the Lebanese Shia militia.  This would make sense because after the 2006 war against Israel Hizbullah assigned priority of its own reconstruction money to Christians in south Lebanon.  The tree has a Lebanese cedar emblem on it so I suppose it came from there.  The MSM portrays Aleppo as a smoking ruin.  What do you say about this, Joe?  pl  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYiJF5OCgFQ https://

pl

The Winter Solstice

Tomorrow my world will begin its long, slow climb into the light of summer.  pl

 

Terrorist attacks in Ankara and Berlin - TTG

I recommend RT.com and RT America if you get MHz Networks digital broadcast for coverage of the attack in Ankara. The Berlin attack at the Christkindlmarkt in the glow of the Kaiser-Wilhelm-Gedächtniskirche will be well covered in the Western press. That attack seems a repeat of the attack in Nice in July. I will comment on the Ankara attack mostly with RT live updates.

——————————————

“This is a tragic day in the history of Russian diplomacy. Today, Russian Ambassador to Turkey Andrey Karlov died after being shot at during a public event in Ankara,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on Monday evening. The assault on the Russian ambassador is an “act of terrorism,” she added. “We are in touch with Turkish officials, who assured us that there will be a thorough and comprehensive investigation [into the case],” Zakharova said.” (RT)

——————————————

Putin has already addressed the nation in a televised statement. In addition to praising Ambassador Karlov and expressing his sorrow for his murder, he made the following comments.

——————————————

"This murder is clearly a provocation aimed at undermining the improvement and normalization of Russian-Turkish relations, as well as undermining the peace process in Syria promoted by Russia, Turkey, Iran and other countries interested in settling the conflict in Syria,"

“We need to know who organized the killing, who gave orders to the assassin.” 

“Our only response is stepping up the fight against terrorism.  The killers will feel it.”

——————————————

"An AP photographer Burhan Ozbilici was covering a photo exhibition when a gunman opened fire, assassinating Russia's ambassador to Turkey. He recounts the chaos that unfolded as he captured the scene. "Don't forget Aleppo. Don't forget Syria!" the gunman shouted in Turkish, referring to the Syrian city where Russian bombardments have helped drive rebels from areas they had occupied for years during the war. He also shouted "Allahu akbar" but I couldn't understand the rest of what he said in Arabic." (Richmond Times Dispatch)

——————————————

An RT update added this about what the assassin said. “Following the shooting of Karlov, the assailant shouted: “Don't forget Aleppo! Don't forget Syria!” “Only death can take me away from here. Whoever has a role in this cruelty, they will pay for it one by one. They will,” the man went on to say.” (RT live update)

——————————————

Turkish authorities said the assassin was a former Turkish police officer who was let go after the failed coup.

——————————————

“A senior Turkish security official said there are “very strong signs” that the gunman was linked to the network of exiled US-based Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen, Reuters reported. He also added that the current investigation is trying to establish links.” (RT live update)

“US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen strongly condemned the attack and has absolutely no links to the gunman, Alp Aslandogan, Gulen’s advisor on media issues, told Reuters. "Mr. Gulen categorically condemns this heinous act,” he stressed.” (RT live update)

——————————————

So we have an assassin yelling in Turkish and Arabic with threats of retribution for Aleppo while giving the one finger jihadi salute. I think that senior Turkish security official is trying to throw the Russian wolfhound off the scent. I also think the trail will lead to the FSA/Nusra jihadis currently enjoying the benevolence of the West and the Turks. As Putin said, “The killers will feel it.” I can hear my old friend, master sergeant Al Rivers in that booming rebel voice of his, “The shit’s on, good buddy!”

TTG

Operation "Borders of Hatay" - an SST war game.

Overview for  "hudud hatay,"   "Borders of Hatay"

SST will now conduct another in the series of war games that have marked our progress toward enlightenment over the years.  The goal in such games is to create conditions in which critical and creative thinking can occur with regard to possible or probable futures.  The game will be played in three or four turns (TBD).  The game will be played in Game Time, not real world time.  The Game Time dates and times will be clearly stated and should not be confused with real world times or dates.  At the beginning of each turn the control group (pl & TTG) will post a scenario situation for the following turn.  The game time Christmas Day situation for the first turn is posted below.   Based on that Situation and following Situations, comments are invited that provide the commenters' opinion as to how that Situation would develop over the period of Game Time stated for the turn.  The Control Group will judge the worthiness of comments and make decisions as to whether or not they are contributory and should be posted.  After a sufficient period of real world time has passed, a new turn scenario will be posted that to some degree reflects the quality of the comments that have been made. 

A few cautions for commenters:

1.  Do not fight the scenario of the game.  The game creates a universe deliberately isolated in time and space from reality.  It does that to focus deliberations on a fairly narrow set of possibilities.  If you do fight the scenario your comment will not be posted.

2.  Do not make comments that reflect real world time rather than game time.

3.  Do not make frivolous or obscene comments.  If you do, your comments will not be posted  and you may be banned from SST.

4.  This IS NOT a forecast.  It is a probability driven study of one particular scenario.  There could easily be others.

"Borders of Hatay" situation as of Christmas Day, 2016. 

The Syrian Government stated on Christmas Day that 2017 will be sennat al-nasr, the Year of Victory.   By Christmas Day R+6 has re-taken Palmyra with the US led air coalition having operated against IS north of the Palmyra road and R+6 air south of the road as well as in the CAS mode in the immediate area of Palmyra.  By Christmas the Tiger Force armor that led the counter-offensive is in the process of being withdrawn from Palmyra for re-fit and rest in the Damascus area.  MG Suhail, the Tiger Force commander was interviewed on Christmas Eve in Damascus by SANA and said his men deserved some rest.  By Christmas Day the evacuation of east Aleppo is largely complete, a total of around 30,000 having left for jihadiland, and another 100,000 former east Aleppo residents living in government shelters.  Relief supplies are beginning to arrive in large quantities. The besieged Shia villages of Kafraya and al-Fu'a  a few kilometers north of Idlib City were finally able to send their sick and wounded to Aleppo under the terms  of the Aleppo truce. Russia has begun air drops of supplies into these villages.   UN observers are in place at Aleppo but the French government, MSM  and Brits are still whining about massacres, etc.   Turkey continues to provide logistical support to the Nusra connected jihadis through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing into Idlib Province, Syria.  The Al-Bab confrontation among the Turks, FSA, the SAA and YPG remains stalemated as does the sadly inept effort of the Iraqi Security forces to re-capture Mosul.  The SDF/YPG are still well north of Raqqa and Tabqa, but still capturing villages.  Israel continues its more or less open support of IS on the Golan Front.  R+6 air continues to strike all over Idlib Province, around Deir al-Zor and in the Palmyra area.  There have been a number of assassinations and explosions throughout Idlib province. Speculation abounds as to whether this is the result of continued infighting triggered by the influx of Aleppo rebels in the area or suspected payback strikes by Russian Spetsnaz for the assassination of Ambassador Karlov.

First Turn Requirement.

 State your opinion as to what has happened by 2 January, 2017 (Game Time).  pl & TTG

A Tribute to Trump Supporters by Richard Sale

Whatever their class or station in life, everyday people  have a right to live normal life that has its moments of satisfaction and pleasure and peace. So many people live lives of quiet desperation, and over time,  if the conditions of their life continues make them suffer, they will feel alarmed, oppressed and cheerless.

Trump supporters are very aware of these things: the vast wealth that has infiltrated politics, the closing of the doors that were to help them rise in life,  the flood of consumer goods, that they are being ignored by the TV news.  All this funds indignation and anger that social evils that make them miserable are allowed to continue without efforts to alleviate or change them for the better. They believe it is entirely unjust that they have to suffer from needless misery all their lives.

Many people don’t have time to reflect on the meaning of their lives. Their lives consist of strenuous exertions, back breaking efforts, and for many the rewards for those efforts is piddling. They are fated to work like oxen and their pain only ends when they die. No respite, no encouragement, no praise or honors are theirs.  For the majority life offers noting but the  slavery of work.   

President-elect Trump said he loved uneducated people. His aim was to reach people through their feelings. I may disagree with many of the stances of such people, but uneducated people are still people. They are proud, they fearlessly confront suffering, they provide for their families and children, but without rewards and new incentives, providing for others becomes a thankless task.

People who lack education, who aren’t cultured, who have no knowledge of history are still human beings, and they still have rights. The goal of any political system is to provide the means for people to pursue happiness in any way they can under the law. We all have a right to be happy and contented and proud, They work to expand the benefits and pleasures earned by their efforts. We used  to respect “the “common good” as an ideal, but the common good isn't common any more. The common good these days belongs to the elites. If you don’t belong to an elite, you feel betrayed and left behind. No enjoys second place.

Tedious, poorly paid work  which offers no prospects, strangles ambition. Human beings must have certain prospects before them or they wither under ceaseless drudgery. A hopeless life is a dismal one.  To try to improve your lot, when the social and political conditions denies us any feeing of real worth, is the worst fate imaginable.

When people are trapped in that kind of life they will choose to change it.  They hope for escape, and the hope of change helps them to endure  their lot. That is what Trump supporters feel. Patrick Henry wrote, “we have it in our power to create the world new.”   President-elect Trump campaigned on this idea. He told his supporters that he would build a better, more just order of human society. He said that certain evils had no right to exist, and that he would combat them.

No human being should die feeling that his or her was basically a disappointment.

In 1925, a British clergyman noted these things as enemies of the common people:

Wealth without work.

Pleasure without conscience

Knowledge without character.

Commerce without morality.

Science without humanity.

Worship without sacrifice.

Politics without principle.

 

Perhaps the battle against such things can begin anew.

Syria/Iraq Roundup - 17 December 2016

Iraq

The Golden Division of the ISF has reportedly lost 50% of its troops in the Mosul battle thus far.  Field Marshal Ashton Carter was out there recently to buck up the "fellows."  It must have been an interesting set of discussions.  IMO the Iraqis lack the will to take Mosul and the Kurds see it as yet another Sunni Arab city full of people who, like those who are leaving east Aleppo in Syria, are really jihadi supporters.  The IS are well dug in at Mosul and it will be necessary to destroy much of the city to re-capture it.  I wonder what Mikey Flynn will say about that.

Syria

It is cold and wet and nasty out in the field in Syria.  That slows everything down.  When your clothes are freezing stiff you don't think about much but getting warm. 

The dastardly propagandists of the Western media continue to suggest that parts of east Aleppo are still in the hands of the takfiri rats, but that is untrue.  The government controls the whole city.  The jihadis are just waiting for the bus.  Part of the agreement for surrender was that the long besieged Shia villages of Kafraya and Fu'a, a few miles north of Idlib City, would be allowed to evacuate their wounded and sick to government lines.  The takfiri rats stopped that evacuation and in retaliation Shia militias in Aleppo halted the outflow of jihadis and their dependents.   That will be sorted out.  I am curious to know how many people actually were in the jihadi enclave at the end. 

I am saddened to learn that the UK government has sent a military mission consisting of 20 officers with ranks up to brigadier to re-establish the military capabilities of escaped and defeated "moderate" FSA unicorns.  These unicorns are refugees from the debacle at Aleppo.   Well, pilgrims, where are the Brits going to do this training, etc.?  Perhaps the unicorn jihadis will be trucked around through Hatay to the area under Turkish Army control between Al-Bab and the Turkish border.  There are some SAS types guarding the trainers and in that area they would be fairly secure.  OTOH, if they try to do their job inside Idlib Province the UK government should prepare to receive some body bags with full ceremony.  pl  

Update on Rojava - TTG

"Turkey’s policy aimed at preventing Syrian Kurds from gaining a swath of territory along the Turkish-Syrian border has totally trumped its desire to see the end of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Developments show that Turkey at this point is even enabling Assad’s drive to regain control of Syria. The Turkish drive to capture the Islamic State (IS) stronghold of al-Bab, only 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the Turkish border, also aims at curbing Kurdish aspirations. Gaining control of this town has become a matter of prestige for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been arguing for weeks that it is on the verge of being taken.

The problem for Turkey, however, is that it is not just Kurds attached to the People's Protection Units (YPG) — which Ankara views as a terrorist group linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) — who are racing to take al-Bab.

The Syrian regime also wants the town to consolidate its imminent victory in Aleppo. Al-Bab is a gateway to Aleppo, which also leaves Moscow concerned that it could provide a supply line for anti-regime fighters.

Reports have appeared in the Turkish media claiming that the Syrian army and the YPG are collaborating to enter the town before the Turkish-supported Free Syrian Army (FSA). But following assurances by Prime Minister Binali Yildirim regarding Turkey's intention in Syria, given during his visit to Moscow last week, there are indications that Ankara has obtained a conditional green light from Russia to move on al-Bab."

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/12/turkey-drive-against-syrian-kurds-enabling-assad.html#ixzz4Svfn2aYN

————————————

It does appear that Russia is copacetic with Turkish forces and their FSA allies taking al-Bab… at least for now. The Russians and the SAA clearly have other fish to fry. At least the Turks are occupying the attention of a sizable number of IS jihadis. The Turks have moved three hundred or so “commandos” to al-Bab along with a number of their Leopard 2 tanks. Within the last 48 hours, Turkish authorities report four F-16s have hit 28 IS targets in the area with another 157 targets hit by artillery. 

The IS is not just rolling over in this fight. The Hurriyet Daily News said IS has fortified the city with nearly a thousand ditches including two meter wide anti-tank ditches supported by minefields and anti-tank weapons. Three Leopard 2s have been reported to be destroyed by IS TOW-2s and Konkurs missiles as of yesterday. The Turkish/FSA offensive is stalled on the outskirts of al-Bab. The U.S. is providing no air or ground support to this Turkish offensive.

The Turks will probably take al-Bab before too long, but what’s next? Erdogan has answered that question himself. Anadalou Agency quoted Erdogan as saying, "At this moment, we are focused on al-Bab, we have surrounded al-Bab on the west, and we will go from here to Manbij.” Well that should get interesting.

————————————

 AIN ISSA, Syrian Kurdistan (Kurdistan24) - The US-backed Syrian Kurdish-Arab alliance announced on Wednesday they liberated dozens of villages and approached a strategic town held by the Islamic State (IS) group west of the city of Raqqa. Kurdistan24 correspondent embedded with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reported that about twenty villages were liberated from IS in the western countryside of Raqqa.

On the third day of the second phase of the offensive launched last month to liberate the Syrian de facto capital of IS, the SDF advanced about 15 km/9 miles towards the IS-held area of Tabqa, some 60 km (40 miles), to the west of Raqqa.

Several SDF fighters on the frontlines told Kurdistan24 that most of IS insurgents were leaving their positioning without any resistance. "[IS] insurgents don't fight, they just flee in front of our forces," said Hoger, a Syrian Kurdish SDF fighter. Additionally, the fighters said they were fighting IS and helping civilians return to their villages immediately. "After we liberate a village, we clean it and remove the mines, and then we help people return to their homes safely," said Hasan, a Syrian Arab SDF fighter.    

SDF officers who talked to Kurdistan24 on conditions of anonymity said the target of SDF and their allies is controlling the Thawra Dam, near the town of Thawra, some 150 km (90 miles) southeast of Aleppo. By controlling the Tabqa dam, the SDF can control the western areas of Raqqa, and then separate those areas from the city, so that IS will be besieged from three sides.

http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/f0808e04-4e24-4b65-8daa-7e6cd41b367b/Raqqa-battle--Kurdish-led-forces-approach-Tabqa--liberate-villages

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Not long ago, the YPG was threatening to pull out of the Wrath of Euphrates offensive to take Raqqa to aid their brethren in the Manbij Military Council against the Turkish/FSA invasion. Now they are participating in phase two of the operation to take Raqqa. Perhaps the original threat and the YPG columns moving West were maskirovka to move forces into position to strike from the Tishreen Dam towards Tabqa. Looks like the plan worked. U.S. Special Forces and special operations forces are participating in this fight. I’ve also seen videos of Ospreys brings arms and ammunition to the SDF/YPG forces in Ayn Issa. Now we’ll see if IS reinforces this front in any meaningful way. 

Both these moves against IS will serve to take pressure off other fronts including Palmyra. Seems the R+6 and the U.S. are okay with all this at the moment. I seriously doubt it will stay that way once Turkey moves agains Manbij in a meaningful way. At some point, this will look like Tolkien's battle of five armies.

TTG

Hollande - "A Day Late and a Dollar Short," as usual.

"French President Francois Hollande on Wednesday joined calls for international observers to oversee the evacuation of civilians trapped under fire in the Syrian city of Aleppo.

At a meeting with his defence cabinet, Hollande said those trapped by the fighting should “be evacuated in a dignified and safe manner, under the supervision of international observers and in the presence of humanitarian organisations,” the presidency said in a statement.

Hollande also demanded that the population of eastern Aleppo receive “unconditional aid and protection” and said only a negotiated political transition could lead to “a lasting victory over terrorism” in Syria."  AFP & AMN

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/%ef%bb%bffrance-calls-international-monitoring-aleppo-evacuation/

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What is this "stiff" polling at now?  4%?  6%?" 

On MJ today Mika bleated "but where are they going, all these poor families?"  Ayman Mohy ad-Din told her that they were going to Idlib.   "Where is that" she stammered.  Ayman replied that this is a city and province still held by the jihadis.  She stared blankly at him.  It appears that she is as stupid and uninformed as Hollande.

The Borgist press carefully avoids describing the civilians voluntarily leaving East Aleppo by Green Bus (Assad Transport, Inc.) as the dependent families of jihadis as well as civilian jihadi cadres themselves.  Get on the bus!

BTW I think Francois Fillon looks like a good man to be president of France, but then, I guess I am interfering in the French electoral process. 

**********

"The Syrian army has driven militant groups out of the Aleppo areas that remined under their control, First Deputy Head of the Main Operations Department at the Russian General Staff Lieutenant General Viktor Poznikhir announced on December 15.

“The militants have been driven out of all the quarters that remained under their control as a result of the Syrian troops’ offensive. During the operation, over 900 terrorists have been killed, dozens pieces of heavy weapons and other military equipment have been destroyed,” the general said.

Poznikhir added that “105 city quarters with a total area of 78.5 square kilometers” have been liberated by government forces since the start of the offensive in November, 2016.

Over 3,000 militants have withdrawn from Aleppo under the agreement with the Syrian government. Over a half of the militant have been pardoned by the government.

“A total of 3,033 militants have left Aleppo voluntarily, 1,524 of them have been amnestied and released, while the rest are checked,” Poznikhir said.

Separately, over 1,000 militants have been evacuated from Aleppo via a humanitarian corridor opened from Salah al-Din to the settlement of Al-Rashidin-4." 

https://southfront.org/govt-forces-control-100-of-aleppo-city-russian-general-staff/

----------------

 Well, well, well.  You heard that this would happen first here and at MoA.  It seems that  "b" and SSTers can read a map and comprehend what happens when forces meet on a battlefield or in a campaign area.

The Palmyra area needs some reinforcement.  The IS "reivers" ("Serenity" reference) should not be allowed to get west of Tiyas.  The Palmyra salient was basically untenable with the troops available.

Idlib and the Bab al-Hawa crossing should have priority of resources in the next phase.  pl  

 

" ... in response to a reproach." English Outsider

I lifted this from an EO comment.  That is why it has no paragraph breaks.  pl

"Colonel – this is an email I sent in response to a reproach that in opposing Western policy in Syria I was supporting a mass murderer, as proved by Assad’s actions in recovering East Aleppo. It’s too long for insertion in your comments section but it occurs to me that if your committee of experts were able to put together an overview of the Syrian war with particular reference to East Aleppo it might give many of us something to fall back on when responding to such reproaches. “The Syrians had to get East Aleppo back or they’d have had little chance of successfully resisting Daesh in the longer term. But what occurred in East Aleppo might also be viewed as a hostage release operation. The Jihadis were fighting from a populated area. It was therefore difficult to defeat them without civilian casualties. For this reason the Russians kept on agreeing to cease fires or "pauses" in the fighting in order to get the civilians out. In the meantime the Jihadis were able to fire indiscriminately into Western Aleppo causing a number of civilian casualties. The pauses the Russians insisted on didn’t work that well because (1) the pauses were used by the Jihadis to regroup and where possible to re-supply, so to some extent the pauses just prolonged the agony. It’s possibly true therefore that more were killed as a result of some of these pauses than were saved. (2) The Jihadis shot at the civilians as they were attempting to leave. In spite of these drawbacks the Russians kept plugging away with the humanitarian pauses and ultimately it did work. By the end they were getting a lot of civilians out and also getting a lot of the Jihadis to lay down their arms. How many moderate rebels did the same we won’t know. The term “moderate rebel” or “rebel” might indeed have some meaning in the Syrian context but it’s a term so often used by the politicians as a euphemism for Al-Qaeda or similar groups that that meaning is never clear. Bear in mind also that many of those Jihadis couldn't really be called true Jihadis anyway. Aleppo was an industrial area before the war. When Daesh took over East Aleppo machinery and equipment was dismantled and taken to Turkey. In addition the sanctions had damaged the Syrian economy. Those two factors meant that many people lost their jobs. When Daesh came in they had a great amount of money behind them so the jobless who’d stayed often enlisted with Daesh in order to feed their families. One aim of the Syrian government was to get these people off the Daesh payroll and back into Syrian society. That seems to have worked, although you can't be sure some won't be shot in a quiet corner later. Some of the Aleppo population who joined Daesh were, however, true believers. Fanatics, just as the invaders were.

 

The friends of "the moderates" are not through yet

1.  Having lost the Battle for Aleppo, the Assad must Go crew have now moved on to projecting memes involving false analogies to The Shoah and NAZI Germany as the aftermath of Jihadi defeat in the city.  Wild and unsubstantiated rumor is being spread by the UN, SOHR (MI-6) and Western media to the effect that Syrian troops are butchering civilians including THE CHILDREN in the streets in a re-enactment of every sack of a city the propagandists can dimly remember.  In fact the Syrians and Russians are evacuating civilians from the recently liberated combat areas, caring for them in makeshift shelters and preparing them for return to their homes.  Does the SAA have a list of hard core jihadis who they are looking for and aiming to eliminate?  SAA intelligence has had agents inside East Aleppo where they made appropriate lists.  These lists would include some fervent civilian collaborators with the jihadi cause.  This is war. Dead men don't bite.

2.  It seems that the former Nusra front and its allies are moving men up to the Aleppo area from Hama in anticipation of a next phase operation into Idlib province probably oriented on Idlib City and Jisr al-Shugur. 

3.  ISW is pushing the propaganda theme that the capture of Palmyra by an "army" of Technicals and suicide bombers is a major setback for the R+6.   It is not.  IMO the  attack was made on an opportunistic basis by IS seeking to take advantage of R+6 focus on the Aleppo battle. 

4.  Palmyra can wait.  The ruins and the propaganda leverage that IS capture of them provide are not worth diverting scarce ground assets from the center of gravity of the fight.  That center of gravity is in Idlib Province and the Turkish border crossing at Bab al-Hawa.  pl

The Russian Concept of Reflexive Control - TTG

In 1996 I heard the siren song of the developing field of Information Warfare (IW). The concept intrigued me, but I found it was little more than a conglomeration of well established aspects of warfare. IW was visualized as an image of a Greek temple with five columns. The “five pillars” of IW at that time were OPSEC, PSYOPS, military deception, electronic warfare and physical destruction. See. Nothing new. In retrospect, these early attempts were rather crude and simplistic.

Shortly after that, I had the pleasure and good fortune of meeting Tim Thomas.  He was a Russian FAO and an analyst at the Foreign Military Studies Office at Fort Leavenworth. He was an expert in Soviet/Russian military doctrine and in the Russian equivalent of IW, commonly referred to as information confrontation or information-based warfare. We shared an interest in all things Russian and, between us, had a fair amount of experience dealing with Russians. I told him of my experiences with Russian trained cyberneticists and he introduced me to the concept of reflexive control. This theory has been a subject of study in the Soviet Union for over fifty years. It became the guiding principle in the development of the Soviet Union’s/Russia’s growing capability in information confrontation.

Tim Thomas describes reflexive control in his July 1996 article “Russian Views on Information-based Warfare.” He’s written a lot on this subject since then. 

——————————————

"Information manipulation/perception management"

"Disinformation is a Russian technique that manipulates information and misinforms people or groups. Some disinformation procedures are obvious, some unconvincing, and some work through delayed perceptions, rumors, repetition, or arguments. Specific persons or particular social groups can serve as disinformation targets. The purpose of a disinformation campaign is to influence the consciousness and mind of man. In Russia today, where there is an unstable public-political and socio-economic situation, the entire population could serve as the target of influence for an enemy campaign."

"The authorities in Moscow recognize this and are trying to gain control over a most dangerous situation in their view. Clearly, the management of information is essential to their maintenance of stability. Historically, the Soviet Union was very good at developing theories of information management. Their propaganda machine stood at the apex of this effort. One of their most interesting Cold-war methods for managing information and getting people (or an opponent) to do what an action's initiator wanted was described by the theory of reflexive control. Reflexive control is a "branch of the theory of control related to influencing the decisions of others. In a military context, it can be viewed as a means for providing one military commander with the ability to indirectly maintain control over his opponent commander's decision process." Reflexive control involves creating a pattern or providing partial information that causes an enemy to react in a predetermined fashion without the enemy realizing that he is being manipulated. Its aim is to force an enemy commander to make a decision that, through the manipulation of information, was predetermined by the opposing side.“

——————————————

Our doctrine of IW, now information operations, has come a long way from those early days of the five pillared temple. Perception management, now a core concept of our doctrine, is a first cousin of reflexive control. And we are equally good at it. 

I share all this with you, my fellow correspondents, so that you may read two articles from “War on the Rocks” with open, yet critical minds. “WHODUNNIT? RUSSIA AND COERCION THROUGH CYBERSPACE” by Robert Morgus and “TROLLING FOR TRUMP: HOW RUSSIA IS TRYING TO DESTROY OUR DEMOCRACY” by Andrew Weisburd, Clint Watts and J.M. Berger describe this year’s series of hacks, leaks and false news as a deliberate Russian information operation targeting the U.S. If you have the time and/or inclination, I suggest you drill down through all the embedded links in the articles. There’s a lot of good stuff there.

As many of you know, I am convinced that all this was the result of a well planned and executed information operation undertaken by the Russian government. I’ve spent a decade working in and around this type of thing and can recognize an elegant information operation when I see one. And elegant it was. No drone assassinations. No extrajudicial kidnappings and imprisonments. No arming of terrorists. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, you magnificent bastard, I salute you.

What I don’t know is the true objective of this operation. Was it to defeat Clinton and elect Trump? Was it to destroy confidence and increase doubt in our political system and/or media? Perhaps it was it something else altogether. One’s answers to these questions seems totally dependent on one’s political inclinations. Since there are so many other factors that brought about our present situation, I doubt we’ll ever know the true motives behind this information operation. Nor will we know its true effectiveness or ineffectiveness. But one thing I can assure all of you, it's happening, baby.

TTG

"Zero Days"

 "Zero Days covers the phenomenon surrounding the Stuxnet computer virus and the development of the malware software known as "Olympic Games.""  wiki on the film

------------

I watched this yesterday and I urge you all to watch it.  The level of detail concerning the roles of NSA, Cyber Command, the CIA and Israeli Mossad Section 8200 is surprising.  Something that is not well understood by the public are the various roles of these groups in the covert operations world.  In this case the US military originated the idea of a cyber strike when under pressure from Israel and the Bush White House to find an alternative to air attacks on Iran.  Robert Gates when SECDEF decided that because Iran was not included in the AUMF, DoD had no legal authority to conduct an offensive cyber attack on Iran.  For that reason Gates felt that CIA with its legal authority to wage peace time war in covert actions should be the command element in attacks of the Iranian nuclear program.  As a result CIA people would stand behind the operators at NSA/Cyber Command to order each specific attack.

Fascinating.  pl 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Days

Aleppo - 12 December 2016

 

OK.  This is a map reading test.  Look at how small the remaining jihadi enclave in East Aleppo now is.  Look at how far the pocket is from the international airport.  When the present offensive started a few week ago the front line was at the end of the runways.  This battle is going very well for the R+6.  pl 

https://southfront.org/syrian-army-in-control-of-95-of-aleppo-city-728-militants-surrender-to-govt-forces-in-last-24-hours/

A Christmas Carol? By Walrus.

I dreamt last night a wonderful dream. I was watching television and Hilary Clinton appeared and announced that she would not accept the office of President should , in her words, “the Electoral College be so misguided as to depart from settled precedent” and not elect Donald Trump. She then broke down in tears and apologized to the American people for the damage her campaign had caused to so many people and promised to devote the rest of her life to reforming the Democratic Party and the Clinton Foundation.

I was then transported to the Whitehouse where a jubilant President Trump, with the beaming leaders of both houses of Congress looking on, signed a campaign finance reform bill into law overturning the Citizens United decision and banning corporations from contributing to any political contest without the permission of the simple majority of their shareholders.

I then found myself in an elementary school listening to a English lesson, the teachers were teaching the children by rote learning I was transported to a high school examination hall and read a science paper, there were no multiple choice questions. I saw the teachers car park, it was full of new luxury cars – rewards for the teachers whose students scored the highest in simple written tests of basic English and mathematical literacy.

I went into a bar and the TV was showing “Cops” but the subjects of the police attention weren’t the usual black and white trailer trash, caught with a few drugs, laid out in their misery for our scorn, no, the subjects were white collar criminals, bankers, lawyers, Judges and similar officials – caught red handed taking bribes.

I rode on a new maglev train to a shopping mall. I looked for Christmas presents. There was no Chinese schlock for sale, the shelves were full of quality American made toys. The car park was full of American cars and someone told met hat they were now the most fuel efficient in the world and that export markets couldn’t get enough of them. I drove past a refinery. Over the gate was a slogan “Pollution is waste! It eats profits!” I noticed a warehouse and houses – their roofs covered in solar panels. I passed another factory, outside was a sign; workers wanted! Come on in!

I found myself at the Boeing plant at Everett where I hadn’t been for Thirty years. I watched a team fitting an engine to a B787; “most of us were academics” one told me ; “I was a social studies Professor, but this work pays better and is more satisfying than listening to whiners all day”.

I saw myself in Washington watching a beaming President Trump welcoming Vladimir Putin to the Whitehouse

Then I woke up.

Aleppo and Palmyra - 11 December 2016 - Keep calm and move on.

  

Aleppo - "The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) continued their large-scale offensive in eastern Aleppo today after taking a brief hiatus in order to negotiate a possible exit for the jihadist rebels.

With no agreement put in place, the Syrian Arab Army launched a powerful assault inside the final districts under jihadist control; this would result in a series of intense firefights that would last for much of the day.

Led by the elite Tiger Forces, the Syrian Arab Army managed to capture most the Al-Sahleen and Bab Al-Maqam Neighborhoods after overpowering the jihadist rebels of Fatah Halab and Jaysh Al-Fateh on Sunday afternoon.

According to a military source in Aleppo, the Tiger Forces and Desert Hawks Brigade are on the verge of seizing the remaining areas under jihadist rebel control, including the Bustan Al-Qasir and Sukkari districts.

In the coming days, the Syrian Armed Forces will likely attempt to negotiate a deal with the jihadist rebels in order to surrender the east Aleppo pocket in exchange for safe passage to the Anadan Plains or Idlib."  AMN

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-closes-east-aleppo-amid-jihadist-collapse/

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IMO the Aleppo operation is going extremely well in spite of fits and starts caused by Russian desires to see a jihadi surrender that will do no more damage to the city than can be avoided and the fewest numbers of civilian losses that can be managed.  pl

*******

Palmyra - "Earlier this week, a massive offensive was launched by the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group in the Palmyra countryside, the Al-Masdar news portal reported. Terrorists targeted several sites, located around the city, trying to return the territories, which they lost earlier.

On Saturday, another big offensive was launched by the terrorist group near eastern gates of Palmyra. IS terrorists committed a successful suicide attack on Syrian troops and captured the strategic Grain Silos. After that, terrorists launched an assault on Jabal Tar. It was the first time in the last several months, when the IS has had a presence in this mountain chain.

As a result of these actions, the terrorist group is quickly approaching to Palmyra, as its members surround the city from all defensive flanks.

According to a military source in Tartous, the High Command of the Syrian Army is currently considering redeployment of its elite Tiger Forces to the Palmyra front in order to help to drive out the terrorist group from the area. However, there still has not been any official confirmation of this information."  SF

https://southfront.org/breaking-critical-moment-near-palmyra-events-analysis/

--------------

IMO there is a lot less to the IS attack on Aleppo than immediately meets the eye.  1.  The IS has maintained substantial forces in the eastern Homs Province since the government re-capture of the Palmyra area.  2.  Government garrisoning at Palmyra has been what we "Clausewitzian Grunts" call an Economy of Force operation.  IOW the inadequate manning of the R+6 on the ground country-wide dictated too small a force of too low quality at Palmyra.  This reminds of the inadequacy of the US Army's force in front of the Ardennes in late 1944.  3. The fantastical theories of "underground roads, US weather intelligence, etc., are IMO just bullshit.

The jihadi scum now hold Palmyra City.  OK .  IMO what R+6 should do is get on with the job at Aleppo, and then move enough force to Palmyra to process more jihadis into fertilizer.  My earlier idea to use the new 5th Assault Corps in this effort no longer seems good.  These are volunteers.  They should not be too bloodied too early.  pl  

"The CIA’s Absence of Conviction" - Craig Murray

"The Kremlin has rejected the hacking accusations, while the WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has previously said the DNC leaks were not linked to Russia. A second senior official cited by the Washington Post conceded that intelligence agencies did not have specific proof that the Kremlin was “directing” the hackers, who were said to be one step removed from the Russian government.

Craig Murray, the former UK ambassador to Uzbekistan, who is a close associate of Assange, called the CIA claims “bullshit”, adding: “They are absolutely making it up.”

“I know who leaked them,” Murray said. “I’ve met the person who leaked them, and they are certainly not Russian and it’s an insider. It’s a leak, not a hack; the two are different things.

“If what the CIA are saying is true, and the CIA’s statement refers to people who are known to be linked to the Russian state, they would have arrested someone if it was someone inside the United States.

“America has not been shy about arresting whistleblowers and it’s not been shy about extraditing hackers. They plainly have no knowledge whatsoever.”   Craig Murray

-----------

David Habakkuk brought this article by Craig Murray to our attention.

A couple of things stand out in it for me:

1.  Murray says he knows the supposedly American leaker and implies that this person was motivated by disillusion with the Democrats and the Clintons.

2.  Murray says the CIA is spreading the idea that the FBI is conspiring to conceal Russian interference in the 2016 elections.

Well, pilgrims, the notion that the FBI is in league with the Russians is so funny as to reduce me to ROTFL.  And furthermore, the belief that the IC agencies are apolitical purveyors of truth arrived from God's lips to their ears is also ridiculous.  These agencies are headed by political appointees like John Brennan or by rapaciously ambitious civil servants who live by their wits in the jungle worlds of Washington, London, Paris, Berlin, etc.

In fact the struggle within these agencies by competent and conscientious analysts to speak truth to power is endless.  This struggle is often against the bosses themselves.  Having been an often dissident boss within this system I assure you that the very highest bosses are often quite willing to lie in order to curry favor with the politicians.  In a case in which the CIA's top boss, Brennan, will be departing with Obama ...  Well ...  pl 

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2016/12/cias-absence-conviction/

"The Stop Arming Terrorists Act"

 “Under U.S. law it is illegal for any American to provide money or assistance to al-Qaeda, ISIS or other terrorist groups. If you or I gave money, weapons or support to al-Qaeda or ISIS, we would be thrown in jail. Yet the U.S. government has been violating this law for years, quietly supporting allies and partners of al-Qaeda, ISIL, Jabhat Fateh al Sham and other terrorist groups with money, weapons, and intelligence support, in their fight to overthrow the Syrian government.[i]

“The CIA has also been funneling weapons and money through Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and others who provide direct and indirect support to groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda. This support has allowed al-Qaeda and their fellow terrorist organizations to establish strongholds throughout Syria, including in Aleppo.  

“A recent New York Times article confirmed that ‘rebel groups’ supported by the U.S. ‘have entered into battlefield alliances with the affiliate of al-Qaeda in Syria, formerly known as al Nusra.’ This alliance has rendered the phrase ‘moderate rebels’ meaningless. Reports confirm that ‘every armed anti-Assad organization unit in those provinces [of Idlib and Aleppo] is engaged in a military structure controlled by [al-Qaeda’s] Nusra militants.’

“A recent Wall Street Journal article reported that many rebel groups are ‘doubling down on their alliance’ with al Nusra. Some rebel groups are renewing their alliance, while others, like Nour al-Din al-Zinki, a former CIA-backed group and one of the largest factions in Aleppo are joining for the first time. “The Syria Conquest Front—formerly known as the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front—is deeply intermingled with armed opposition groups of all stripes across Syria’s battlefields.” 

“The CIA has long been supporting a group called Fursan al Haqq, providing them with salaries, weapons and support, including surface to air missiles.  This group is cooperating with and fighting alongside an al-Qaeda affiliated group trying to overthrow the Syrian government. The Levant Front is another so-called moderate umbrella group of Syrian opposition fighters. Over the past year, the United States has been working with Turkey to give this group intelligence support and other forms of military assistance. This group has joined forces with al-Qaeda’s offshoot group in Syria."  Excerpt from the bill

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/46001.htm

-----------

Tulsi Gabbard - Bless her.  For the record SST supports this bill in the House of Representatives.  Those who disagree with me on this should feel free to express their opinions here.  Will the bill pass the House?  That is unlikely considering the bipartisan strength of the Borgist war party in the Congress.  pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulsi_Gabbard 

What to make of this...

Yesterday, President Obama ordered up a report on Russian hacking and the 2016 election. Lo, this morning's (12/10) New York Times.

"WASHINGTON — American intelligence agencies have concluded with “high confidence” that Russia acted covertly in the latter stages of the presidential campaign to harm Hillary Clinton’s chances and promote Donald J. Trump, according to senior administration officials.

They based that conclusion, in part, on another finding — which they say was also reached with high confidence — that the Russians hacked the Republican National Committee’s computer systems in addition to their attacks on Democratic organizations, but did not release whatever information they gleaned from the Republican networks."

Who? What? Why? Any thoughts?      Margaret Steinfels

93% of Aleppo ...

 

"The Syrian army has gained control of 93% of Aleppo’s territory, with 52 neighborhoods in the eastern part of the city liberated, Head of the Main Operations Department at Russia’s General Staff, Lieutenant-General Sergei Rudskoi, said on Friday.

“The government forces and militia units continue the operation to liberate Aleppo’s eastern districts from terrorists,” he said. “After a successful offensive, 52 neighborhoods in east Aleppo have been recaptured from militants. In the past four days alone, the area held by gunmen has decreased by one-third. The Syrian army now controls 93% of the city’s territory,” he said.

These results have been achieved by the Syrian army’s ground forces. Russian and Syrian aircraft have not been used in the Aleppo area since October 18, Rudskoi stressed.

“Dozens of tonnes of humanitarian aid are delivered to liberated districts daily, the social infrastructure is being restored, and people get medical assistance,” he added.

More than 1,000 militants have voluntarily left Syria’s Aleppo and most of them have been amnestied, Rudskoy said.
“In total, 1,096 militants have left Aleppo voluntarily, 953 of them have been amnestied,” Rudskoy said.
“The Syrian government is fully meeting commitments on returning participants of illegal armed groups to peaceful life,” he added."  SF

-------------

OK.  Jihadi Aleppo is "done."  The Syrians are not (for good or ill) butchering their enemies including those civilians who supported the jihadis.

Now the Palmyra attacks must be dealt with.  If I were in charge I would send the new 5th Army Corps to deal with this. 

The main campaign should move on to Idlib Province with emphasis on killing jihadis in place and closing the Bab al Hawa crossing into Turkey. 

All Hamdu lillah!

pl

https://southfront.org/rusian-general-staff-syrian-army-control-93-aleppos-territory/

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-december-9-2016-isis-advancing-on-palmyra-amid-ceasefire-in-aleppo/

Obama orders IC and FBI review of supposed Russian hacking ...

"President Obama has ordered a “full review” of Russian hacking during the November election, as pressure from Congress has grown for greater public understanding of exactly what Moscow did to interfere in the electoral process.

“We may have crossed into a new threshold, and it is incumbent upon us to take stock of that, to review, to conduct some after-action, to understand what has happened and to impart some lessons learned,” Obama’s counterterrorism and homeland-security adviser, Lisa Monaco, told reporters at a breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor.

Obama wants the report before he leaves office on Jan. 20, Monaco said.

On Oct. 7, the intelligence community officially accused Moscow of seeking to interfere in the election through the hacking of “political organizations.” Though the statement never specified which party, it was clear officials were referring to cyber-intrusions into the computers of the Democratic National Committee and other Democratic Party groups. Hacked emails that were damaging to the party and its presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton, soon after appeared on websites such as WikiLeaks."  Washpost

-------------

I think this is a good idea. 

" ... exactly what Moscow did to interfere in the electoral process."  Or did not do...   I have not seen any evidence so far just a lot of "experts say," "the intelligence community suggests,"  etc.

The IC agencies (CIA, DIA, NSA) and the FBI have been working on the question of attempted Russan covert intervention in our elections.  This should be a matter of writing reports that are to be released to the public on the subject.

The reports should be limited to Russian attempted interference in our election.  Both we and the Russians routinely and legally intercept and de-crypt each other's communications.  That activity should not be the subject of these reports.

Following production of the reports there should be congressional hearings under oath at which the agency heads should be asked the following question, "does the evidence available to your agency conclusively establish that the Russian government either directly or through sponsorship actively try to interfere in our 2016 elections?"

Get on with it.  pl  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-orders-review-of-russian-hacking-during-presidential-campaign/2016/12/09/31d6b300-be2a-11e6-94ac-3d324840106c_story.html?utm_term=.efaa36a51d88

"... Migrants Kick German Girl Down Stairs in Berlin Subway"

 

New Year's Eve should be interesting in Europe this year.  pl 

 

https://southfront.org/shock-video-migrants-kick-german-girl-down-stairs-in-berlin-subway/

Concentric Attack - 8 December 2016 - Part Deux

"Few moments ago, the Syrian army, Hezbollah and Liwa al-Quds liberated the key Aleppo district of Sheikh Saeed.

The army and its allies are also advancing against Jaish al-Fatah and Fatah Haleb militants in the districts of Bustan al-Qaser and al-Ameria.

Government forces renewed military operations in the city of Aleppo today noon after yesterday’s success in the areas southeast of the Aleppo Citadel."  SF

--------- 

This pretty much completes the circle for the "concentric attack."  The SF article also discusses Nusra requests to be evacuated via the Castillo Road.  I would prefer to see them made into used creatures that had once been human.

There also seems to be  a problem in getting NATO people attached to Nusra/AQ out of the city.  pl

https://southfront.org/govt-forces-liberate-key-district-in-aleppo-city-al-nusra-al-qaeda-requests-safe-passage/

The Concentric Attack - 8 december 2016

 

"The Syrian army’s Tiger Forces, Liwa al-Quds, the National Defense Forces, Hezbollah and other pro-government formations have been continuing advance against al-Qaeda linked militants (Jaish al-Fatah/Fatah Haleb) in the Syrian city of Aleppo.

Government forces are developing the offensive in the areas of Zebdiyah and Bostan al Qasr.

There are also reports that Liwa al-Quds and Hezbollah have made significant gains in Sheikh Saeed. But they have to be confirmed.

All “ceasefire proposals” sent by militants yesterday were reportedly rejected."  South Front

------------

If you look at today's map you will see that this is the "concentric attack" that I forecast for the developing offensive once the citadel area had been reached and cleared.  The jihadi controlled pocket is shrinking by the hour.  The rebel position is quite hopeless and many of them have either fled or are trying to disappear into the civilian population of the pocket. 

I am informed that the US and Turkish side in negotiations with the Russians and Syria over the details of some jihadi surrenders in Aleppo have now hardened their position and are effectively arguing for surrenders on "terms," i.e., evacuation to Idlib without disarming and without any screening of people surrendering.  The import of these "terms" would be an ability to create a propaganda message that the rebels were not really defeated, and that they agreed to evacuation to save "the people" from further suffering.  The Russians and the  Syrian government have declined to grant such terms.

If this difficulty persists, there is every reason to think that in the words of the Russian MoD, the pocketed jihadis will be "eliminated." 

IMO the Center of Gravity of the non-IS rebellion is now in Idlib Province with its open passageway to Turkey at Bab al-Hawa.   IMO a major diversion of available R+6 forces to al-Bab or Deir al-Zor would be an "unforced error." 

IMO Russia will press Turkey not to advance further into Syria and Erdogan's need for Russian sponsorship in a re-alignment of economic blocs will make that pressure effective.  pl 

https://southfront.org/syrian-army-allies-advance-deeper-into-militant-held-area-in-aleppo-city/

The jihadis are surrendering in East Aleppo.

 

"On December 6, government forces took control of the neighborhoods of Sheikh Lutfi and Marjeh. On December 7, the Syrian army and its allies liberated the Old Aleppo and entered the areas north and east of the Aleppo Citadel.

Member groups Jaish al-Fatah and Fatah Halab militant coalitions announced that they are ready to withdraw from the city under a deal with the government.

A large group of militants already surrendered to government forces. "  SF

-------------

The MSM is trying to ignore the impending end of the jihadi occupied enclave in East Aleppo, but this battle is really over.  The surrendered jihadis will be Green Bus transported out into Idlib Province and released as per the various surrender agreements with the multiplicity of groups.  The negotiations that have reached this outcome were conducted in Aleppo itself and in Turkey under Erdogan's sponsorship. 

After a re-fit period the R+6 campaign to liberate Idlib Province will begin.  pl  

https://southfront.org/syrian-troops-are-close-to-the-biggest-victory-in-the-war/

https://southfront.org/old-aleppo-in-hands-of-syrian-army-group-of-fatah-halab-militants-surrender-to-govt-forces/

"Drain the Swamp" - TTG

Pentagon buries evidence of $125 billion in bureaucratic waste

By Craig Whitlock and Bob Woodward

“The Pentagon has buried an internal study that exposed $125 billion in administrative waste in its business operations amid fears Congress would use the findings as an excuse to slash the defense budget, according to interviews and confidential memos obtained by The Washington Post.”

“Pentagon leaders had requested the study to help make their enormous back-office bureaucracy more efficient and reinvest any savings in combat power. But after the project documented far more wasteful spending than expected, senior defense officials moved swiftly to kill it by discrediting and suppressing the results.”

“The report, issued in January 2015, identified “a clear path” for the Defense Department to save $125 billion over five years. The plan would not have required layoffs of civil servants or reductions in military personnel. Instead, it would have streamlined the bureaucracy through attrition and early retirements, curtailed high-priced contractors and made better use of information technology.”

——————————

After the embarrassing debacle of the Washington Post article based on the PropOrNot project, the paper puts out this solid piece of investigative journalism. The article details how the Pentagon insiders have been doing their damnedest to bury a study that details what the DOD spends on “overhead” costs and lays out a plan to reduce those costs. The 77 slide PowerPoint presentation of the study is included with the article. (Death by PowerPoint)

According to the article the Pentagon spends “almost one-quarter of the defense budget on back office business operations” and “has almost as many people working desk jobs as it does active-duty troops.”

Now this seems like a job perfectly tailored for a business guy famous for saying “you’re fired” and another guy who’s nicknamed mad dog. I also recall the Marine Corps customarily turns back a small portion of its annual budget each year as a statement of fiscal responsibility. These two can go for it with my blessing. Just be sure to change the dining facilities back to mess halls and bring the company mess teams back. Damn I miss those mess teams. I could sure go for a plate of SOS with hash browns and scrambled eggs with that slight green tint right about now. 

TTG

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/pentagon-buries-evidence-of-125-billion-in-bureaucratic-waste/2016/12/05/e0668c76-9af6-11e6-a0ed-ab0774c1eaa5_story.html?utm_term=.efc37c24a83e

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/documents/investigations/defense-business-board-study-from-jan-2015-identifying-125-billion-in-waste/2236/?ref

The emergence of a competent syrian Army

This combat footage of Syrian armor and infantry fighting as a team in East Aleppo is impressive.  I know what this is supposed to look like and this is the real deal.

The two groups are closely  coordinated as one team and move forward using each other's capabilities as reinforcing combat power.

What has happened in the cauldron of the civil war is that a new force has appeared in the Levant.  A new Syrian Arab Army now exists thanks to Russian training, equipment and advice.  At the same time the old truism, "whatever does not kill you makes you stronger" applies.

The after action effects of combat stress toward the end of the film is in many ways the most impressive thing.  I have seen brave men weep and tremble in exactly the same way coming out of a hard fight.  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/video-syrian-army-elite-troops-punch-east-aleppo/

"Pass Me By" - TTG

I've got me ten fine toes to wiggle in the sand.

Lots of idle fingers snap to my command.

A lively pair of heels that kick to beat the band.

Contemplatin' nature can be fascinatin'.

Add to these a nose that I can thumb,

And a mouth by gum have I,

To tell the whole darn world if you don't happen to like it deal me out,

Thank you kindly Pass Me By

       From "Pass Me By," the opening song from "Father Goose"

—————————————

“Everywhere we go today across Eurasia, from the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea to Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and on to China, there is a process underway for the first time since the original Silk Road era of more than two thousand years ago, of building up an entire new economic space, the Eurasian Heartland. Were the Turkish government to join the OBOR [One Belt, One Road] project wholeheartedly, the potentials for a Eurasian transformation would become enormous. It remains to be seen what a USA with a Trump presidency will do or not do to try to destroy this beautiful Eurasian build up. If he is as wise as his sound bites make him sound, he will recognize that this kind of development is the only true future for his United States other than bankruptcy, economic depression and wars of destruction. If not, more and more much of the rest of the world seems determined to go it without the “Sole Superpower.” “

—————————————

This is the last paragraph of an essay by F. William Engdahl entitled “The Iran-Russia-China Strategic Triangle” in the “New Eastern Outlook” electronic journal. In the author’s bio, he doesn’t say what the F. means. I bet a lot of Neocons say it stands for a synonym for copulating. Old F. William lays how these three countries are steadily moving towards an integrated Eurasian market, not an EU-like single market, but something beneficial to the economies of all sovereign members. The entire essay is worth a read.

Beyond the “One Belt, One Road” that China envisions for the Eurasian land mass, China is pushing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as an alternative to the withering and near dead Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal.

On the military side, there is the growing relationship between Russia and Iran. Both countries are joined by the R+6 fight against the IS and their assorted jihadi allies. Both countries face the persistent threat of the Wanhabi inspired jihadists. In addition to the S-300PMU-2 air defense systems, Russia is negotiating with Iran to build T-90S tanks and SU-30SM fighters in Iran. Such a deal would draw these two countries very close together indeed.

How will the new Trump administration react to all this? Perhaps he will negotiate bilateral trade agreements so the U.S. will not be shut out of a future RCEP free trade bloc. That might not be a bad approach. The sooner we realize we are not the center of the universe or the indispensable nation, the better. As far as I’m concerned, we would be better off with the attitude expressed in “Pass Me By” from the Cary Grant movie “Father Goose” than than any further pursuit of the Neocon dream. Even Cary Grant rose to the occasion when required.

But I am most concerned about what Trump will do about an Iran that is increasingly integrated into the Eurasian and Asian spheres. Trump and the Republicans are death on the JCPOA deal with Iran. Trump probably because he believes he can do better. The Republicans because the JCPOA is part of the Obama legacy. Flynn, Mattis and many others consider Iran to be the font of all evil in the world and seek to vanquish this dire threat to all things good and American. How does all this square with Trump’s desire to seek rapprochement with Russia? Will he let the events in the far corners of the world pass him by? Tis a puzzlement.

TTG

The Iran-Russia-China Strategic Triangle

APEC Leaders May Be Looking to China After Donald Trump's Win

Beijing's New Silk Road to Europe

US Congress losing mind over Russian Arms Sales to Iran

Will Iran Buy Russian Fighter Jets?

Father Goose

4 december 2016 in Aleppo

"On December 3, Syrian government forces broke the militant defense line in the northern part of eastern Aleppo pocket and secured significant areas west of the Aleppo International Airport. The Syrian army set a full control over Tareeq al-Bab and al-Myassar Jazmati neighborhoods and seized a number of points in Sheikh Lutfi. Government attacks in Seikh Saeed that the army and its allies had lost to militants few days ago. However, this operation didn’t result in gains.

On December 4, the army and its allies continued advances against Jaish al-Fatah militants in the northern and southern parts of eastern Aleppo pocket. At the same time, reports appeared that Syrian engineers are working to restore the Ramouseh-Sheikh Saeed road in order to ease troop movement and supply delivers for the advancing government forces in the area.

The Syrian military sees constant pressure on militant forces on multiple fronts in Aleppo city as an important task because this allows pro-government forces to exploit Jaish al-Fatah’s lack of manpower.

The army keeps two options to split the remaining Aleppo pocket into separate parts as it has been done previously:

• To advance from al-Myassar Jazmati to the Aleppo Citadel
• To advance from Sheikh Lufti to the Aleppo Citadel

Local sources report that the recent developments destroyed Jaish al-Fatah’s fighting spirit and motivated Syrian troops for offensive operations. Nonetheless, nobody in the Syrian and Russian command staff expect an easy win in the coming days."  AMN

----------------

Well, pilgrims,  the Rooshans and Suriyeen are saying the right things, but I think the Aleppo battle will end in the next couple of weeks.

From the map it would seem that R+6 agrees with SST tactical analysis.

The jihadis refuse to leave Aleppo?  Well, shucks!  Good.  A lot more of the rats will die there.  pl

 

The WaPo thought Mattis was a retired BG

 

The Washington Post has now corrected its error but the newpaper's lead editorial today was originally published with a headline that described General James Mattis as a "retired brigadier general."  This error was repeated in the text. 

Pictures of Mattis in uniform have been everywhere in the media for weeks.  Count'em folks!  One...  Two ...  Three ... Four!  Four stars means a full general.  A brigadier general wears one star, one star.

The editorial board of WaPo doesn't know the difference between a brigadier general and a full general?  The WaPo doesn't have proof readers and fact checkers?

IMO the WaPo is invincibly  and arrogantly ignorant of anything to do with the military.  pl  

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-pros-and-cons-of-a-generals-general/2016/12/03/f8d6e72c-b8b7-11e6-b994-f45a208f7a73_story.html?utm_term=.e50743c91013

The next main axis of attack?

Ain't technology grand?

Here we have a Google Earth image taken from space of the present field of battle in Aleppo.

In the upper left corner you see the citadel of Aleppo, a medieval structure standing on its hill above the old city.  It is within government lines.

In the lower right corner you see one end of the runways at Aleppo International Airport.  The airport is also within government lines. 

The space between is about 1.5 miles at most.

There is a wide highway that connects the two map objects.

The space between these objects is jihadi held, as is a patch of remaining jihadi territory both north and south of the broad airport road.  There is constant pressure now on this remaining jihadi enclave from various directions as THE PEOPLE flee toward and into government shelters

IMO the final blow to jihadi hopes and dreams will likely be in a drive astride the airport highway and using the open ground south of the road with the objective of reaching the citadel and cutting the jihadi zone in half yet again.  pl

"Nothing is so good for morale ... "

"CENTCOM chief, Gen. Joseph Votel warns against throwing Syria's "moderate" rebels under the bus, Stars and Stripes reports. "I can think of a number of groups…who we have been working with, who have been very, very good partners to us and done our bidding with our support, with our coalition support. So I think we should look to do that, and I hope we will find a way to continue to do that," he told a conference in Washington on Wednesday."  Todays D Brief

 

***************

 "U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Joseph Votel on Wednesday urged the incoming Trump administration to reverse course and continue an Obama administration program to train and equip Syrian moderate rebel forces as the campaign to retake Raqqa gathers force.

That would amount to a major about-face for the president-elect. During the election campaign, Mr. Trump sharply criticized the program and the handling of the Syrian conflict, saying U.S. officials “have no idea who these people are.”

The four-star general, speaking at an event sponsored by the Foreign Policy Initiative in Washington, said the United States and its allies were reaping the benefits of a military training program in Syria." 

The program is an integral part of President Obama’s overall strategy to eliminate the Islamic State, also known as ISIS and ISIL, from Syria and the rest of the Middle East.  Washtimes 

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/nov/30/gen-joseph-votel-seeks-syrian-rebel-training-under/

----------------

"Nothing is so good for the morale of the troops as occasionally to see a dead general." 
   - Field Marshal Lord Slim 

Slim was a truly great fighting soldier.  He understood that the Grunts want to know that their commanders share the risks.  A dead general makes that point. 

General Votel is clearly a creature of the Obama Administration's confused policies in the Greater Middle East.

It would be one thing if Votel is speaking here of the YPG/SDF forces that US SOF has been training, equipping and advising in Kurdish Syria.  IMO that should continue.

If, on the other hand Votel is talking about the Syrian and non Syrian medievalist scum fighting to destroy secular, multi confessional government in Syria, then he is deluded and should be removed pour encourager les autres. (Byng)  Our "moderate" allies in East Aleppo as well as all over Syria have routinely murdered prisoners of war, beheaded children who said things they disliked, destroyed and violated ancient places of worship, refused to allow civilian evacuations in Aleppo.  IMO they are not deserving of treatment as prisoners of war under international or, for that matter, US law.  The Syrian government should dispose of them as they see fit.

The Admiral Byng principle of using dismissal or worse as a means of encouraging better performance should be applied to the politically minded military losers who now inhabit so many positions in the US armed forces.  Trump was right in his campaign statements concerning general officers of the GWOT.  Let the axe fall wherever needed.  Flynn will have an opinion as to who should be retired.   Let us hope that the pseudo institution of the general officers mutual protection club does not apply.  pl