Trump Ascends to the Cherry Blossom Throne - Tyler

We are two days post election and already seeing people predicting what a potential Trump Administration will look like. Estimates are all over the place, with the people who confidently predicted Trump could never beat Hillary confidently predicting how his administration will be run. Obviously, they have learned nothing. If we are to understand what a Trump Administration will look like, we must consider and accept a few facts to develop a reasonable analysis.

First, Trump is unprecedented in what he has done, and the way he did it. Running a guerilla campaign, the man put to bed the two most prominent political dynasties in the US (the Bushes and the Clintons), in his first national campaign. A reminder: this is a group that contains: 3 former presidents, two governors, a senator, a secretary of state, and the director of the CIA. This is not a feat that should be underplayed or disregarded. I say this because there is a tendency to regard Trump as an “amateur”, and this is reminiscent of the “he is not really trying!” rhetoric we heard during certain parts of the campaign. Keep in mind this accomplishment when trying to figure out how he will go forward or making ridiculous claims.

We must also consider who did not support Trump, and who did. The “NeverTrump” faction was mostly neocons who were upset about his Jacksonian style engagement, and wanted a hot war with Russia over Syria, Pussy Riot, and transsexual bathrooms. The appearance of those who espouse certain neocon platitudes (Bolton, Flynn), should be noted, but it should also be taken into consideration that Trump is a deviously fast learner. The man saw the pitfalls and tar babies that the Bush II and Obama Administrations entered, won the Presidency partially on saying he’d avoid foreign entanglements, and I imagine he knows very well who these people are and what they want. In the case of Bolton, the man’s boisterous nature over certain foreign policy entanglements is offset by the fact he seems very “America First” when it comes to foreign policy. However, the hardcore neocons such as Krauthammer and Wolfowitz will not be allowed within missile distance of a Trump Administration. I wouldn’t freak out about Trump bringing in certain personages, as he seems to adopt the maxim about “friends close, enemies closer”.

The two largest ideological brakes on any neocon influence will be Senator Jeff Sessions and Stephen Miller. These two men are very much opposed to the “invade the world, invite the world” of neocons like McCain and the others, and seem to play some very vital, important role in his administration beyond what their public personage suggests. I would not be surprised to find out that they wield as much influence with the man as Ivanka, and their usage in his administration is likely going to be spectacular in some way. Remember, Sessions has been the Godfather of Immigration Enforcement hawkishness, and is a leading senior senator to boot. The man will get what he wants and can make it happen finally.

More on this. Finally, let us consider Trump personally. While much is made of his oversized, boisterous personality, when we consider the private man we see a different side that is thoughtful, analytical, and not prone to hasty decisions. To borrow a reference from popular culture, he is Tywin Lannister in a way, where he states that if his enemies bend the knee, it is his responsibility to help them to their feet. Look at his treatment of Ted Cruz for instance. While their relationship is tense, Trump hasn’t held Cruz at length, but instead brought him into the campaign. The same goes for Christie, Carson, and others. Each of these men is going to have a role in the new Trump Administration. I would not be surprised if Cruz gets a SCOTUS nod, depending on factors such as how hard will Cruz work for Trump in the Senate.

So, what policies will Trump bring in his first six months? Right now, it seems health care reform and tax reform are on the table, as well as infrastructure. All things we can get behind. I cannot speculate exactly on what is planned, but I will make three broad points on these issues. Health care reform will not be the usual Republican giveaway to big business, but will have a decidedly populist bent while not being socialized for everyone. People don’t want Grandma not getting her check-up, but they also don’t like seeing people get hand-outs. Look for large tax cuts to the middle class as well as corporate tax reform, and infrastructure reform will include funding the wall. Trump will get this by slicing off the Populist Wing of the Democratic Party (Warren & Sanders) and giving them trophies to wave around as showing that they are “with the people”. These overtures have already been made, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he offered one or two them positions in his Administration.

Foreign policy wise, Trump will begin rapprochements with Russia and other “nationalist/populist” governments across the world, such as those Eastern European countries that refused to heed the diktats of the EU. Trump married an Eastern European after all, and one of his ex-wives is Eastern European. Obviously, the man has a fondness for the region. Look for closer ties with these countries beyond “catspaw against Russia”.

Speaking of Russia, look for an axis to form between the two countries with respect not only for spheres of influence, but cultural considerations as well. There will be less of the attempt to impose secular hedonism on the world, but instead a respect for how each nation tends to its affairs. Ironically, it will be an actual diversity instead of the faux diversity espoused by the globalist adherents of secular hedonism. In the short term, look for the conflict in Syria to wrapped up neatly (as these things go), by the end of the year.

On the domestic front, you are already seeing the resurrection of the paid Soros mobs that exist to sow chaos and attempt to cause an overreaction by the authorities. Think of these as domestic “color revolutions” and funded Maidan Squares. Again, the Left doubles down on a failed policy. It refuses to realize that Trump ran on a law and order platform, and he knows what he owes the people who put him in power. You will see a series of short, sharp responses from an unchained law enforcement able to do its job. There will be the usual MSM propaganda showing the one bleeding baby and woman while claiming that you had a (white) police officer giving them the business with both hands on his nightstick. Rioters will inevitably be classified as “peaceful protesters” even as the vehicles are on fire around them. The MSM will further lose cachet. Some of you wonder why Trump wants to expand libel laws against the media – here is why. It is the nature of the Left, which is in permanent revolution, to overplay its hand. We are seeing it again.

On immigration, Trump does not need to pass broad sweeping laws. He only needs to enforce the ones on the books, something the Obama Administration has not been doing. Look for cries of outrage when Trump replaces many US Attorneys (like when Bush II did the same), and remember this wasn’t an issue when Obama did the same thing. Cutting off aid to sanctuary cities, enforcing immigration law, and making the process of living in the US so onerous for those here illegally will go a long way to reducing our illegal alien population.

Remember when I mentioned Senator Sessions? I would not be surprised if he has stacks of papers on what can already be done. Again, look for more staged incidents of “brutality” in order to attempt to shape a narrative. You are about to be surprised by the amount of would be doctors and rocket scientists claiming to exist in the illegal alien population. Furthermore, Trump does not need to pass a law to build a wall. He simply needs it in the budget. I imagine he will have no problem getting that and pointing towards anyone who attempts to obstruct it as putting the needs of foreign citizens before US citizens. This is powerful rhetoric.

I’ll close by saying let us remember that “everyone” said Trump couldn’t win. Trump did win. Do not make the mistake of assuming Trump won’t do what he says he’s done so you can sleep easier, forming opinions on a mirage you create in the space of your mind. Instead, my friends on the Left, worry that he will not only do what he said he would, but he’ll go above and beyond, and the people will love him for it.

Comments

[Babak Makkinejad]

Well, is an anti-Muslim bigot the President of the United States?

You do not need to convince me, I wonder what the Gulfies think.

[GulfCoastPirate]

Fred wrote:

'You mean our votes should be weighted by the dollars we pay in taxes? My vote won't be equal to Warren Buffet's because he's got more money?'

Nice try at diversion but that isn't even close to what I said. What I said was we aren't represented equally. If I live in a state with 25 million people and you live in a state with 2 million people then the Senate makes your vote count more than mine even though we both pay taxes into the system - no matter how much that may be. As it turns out a lot of little states who have 2 senators just like California or Texas get those 2 votes translated into additional electoral votes which also warps the representation of individuals in the electoral college.

Then we have all these little states which are over represented in the legislature voting themselves federal government benefits so that the amount of taxes they pay into the system is far less than the amount of dollars they take out of the system. Twice now in 16 years the Republicans have managed to get the presidency with fewer total votes. Before that it hadn't happened since the 19th century. While the system may have seemed to make sense at the time it no longer works for the larger states.

[GulfCoastPirate]

Sam,

I'm talking about aggregate totals for each state. Not where that tax income originates in each state. I'm not trying to separate out what the 'citified' and the 'deplorables' pay in each state. I'm only commenting on the aggregates and any subsidies to business would be counted in those aggregates.

I agree with you on the tax code and tax percentages but that is a different discussion. Do you expect Trump to do anything in that area?

[GulfCoastPirate]

turcopolier wrote:

'1. Both parties gerrymander whenever they can. You live in Texas where Democrats rarely get to do anything important politically so it may seem to you that the GOP are the gerrymanderers everywhere but they are not. Everyone does it to reflect actual communities of sentiment.'

Yes, I'm aware it's been done in the past but never to the degree the Republicans have carried it out nationwide since the tea party elections of 2010. The courts have stepped in multiple times in Texas.

'The "stupid" soldiers (my people) disproportionally come from among the "others." This tendency to populate the armed services with the "others" has been growing since the end of the draft. Those people, the fighters and former fighters voted GOP in very large numbers.'

Frankly, given Hillary's tendencies in the Middle East with the neocons and the Zionists I don't blame them. I guess I'm thinking more along the lines of what happens to them when they leave the military.

I agree with your statement on technology and 'outlook on life'. For those on the coasts trade hasn't only brought about expanded economic opportunities it's also brought about the opportunity to meet people from elsewhere and be influenced by their outlooks on life. There is a reason Galveston/Houston has a different outlook than College Station or Lubbock. I'll give you an example. Tuesday Houston went bluer than it did in 2012, 2008 and so on. I read an article recently that Houston has the most diversified group of restaurants of any city in the country - more than NYC or SF. That's because we accept people from anywhere and they continue to come. Mostly to work in oil/gas, space, medical and so on. The restaurants needed to feed them follow. My point is there is no way someone who lives in Houston is going to have the same outlook as someone who lives in West Texas or even Dallas. It's just a completely different way of life and the divide is getting greater.

I still don't know what we do about those not on the coasts. No matter what Trump told them during the campaign I still don't see how they get their factories back and without their factories I don't see where they get much work.

[turcopolier]

GCP

Yes, the people who John Ford called "men in dirty shirt blue" have had a bellyful. I suspect that you will find Trump tp be a big surprise. pl

[rjj]

I still don't know what we do about those not on the coasts. No matter what Trump told them

interesting wording. cosmopolitans often have an overly parsimonious idea of diversity.

Next big thing in indigenous cuisine be hot roast beef sandwich food trucks.

[Jack]

GCP

"I still don't know what we do about those not on the coasts. No matter what Trump told them during the campaign I still don't see how they get their factories back and without their factories I don't see where they get much work."

There are no magic wands. And it's going to take a while to reverse 30 years of dismantling our industrial base and shipping it overseas. But...IMO, a good first step would be start reverse the financialization of our economy and to vigorously enforce Robinson-Patman.

[Babak Makkinejad]

I think you will be surprised at the low standard of living that many middle class people are experiencing in Brooklyn, in Bay Area, in Boston, and such.

I heard that 700,000 government workers in New York city are on food stamps.

The coastal area may have benefited from a macro-economic perspective but when you look at the micro-level, it is an all together different story; in my opinion.

The chief division, it seems to me, is between the culturally cosmopolitan and the not so. Many of the cosmopolitans are indeed now on their way to lower middle class (or already there) in spite of their expensive college educations - or may be because of it.

The cosmopolitans suffer from a number of phobias; among them fear of absence of concrete and asphalt, or weapons, and of opposing view point.

[Babak Makkinejad]

You stated: "Attraction is't a choice but a biological attraction..."

That is not a factual statement.

There are counter examples of married women with children, of married men with children - many cases of AC-DC.

Hetero female -> Lesbian -> Nympho -> Married

Hetero Male -> Gay -> Hetero Male

Those who are bisexual, in my opinion, are those that suffer the most - not being able to maintain a stable psyche.

[kao_hsien_chih]

No. Not at all surprising. The alleged "far" left, or more accurately, the populist left, has been talking to the Deplorables and indeed include a significant number of "Deplorables" themselves. Good for them and the country that they are getting the spotlight. Trump election could be the best thing that has happened to the Democrats since FDR.

[kao_hsien_chih]

Babak is right. Votes for Trump went up dramatically compared to Romney in such places like Brooklyn or Staten Island. Trump might not have turned Connecticut or New Jersey red, but he was far more competitive with the blue collar folk in "bicoastal" regions than Romney ever did. Where he did lose votes are places like Dallas, among the wealthy Republican suburbanites. The "bicoastal" places are not nearly as "bicoastal" as people who are upscale think they are. To paraphrase Tonto from Lone Ranger, one might almost hear "Who do you mean us, liberal man?" I'm not trying to mock anyone--just that the divides are not nearly as clean cut as one thinks.

Trump was right to channel the spirit of Lincoln's second inaugural. To bind up the wounds of the nation, to care for those who have become dispossessed in our obsession with Progress, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves, indeed (my rewording of Lincoln, not Trump's).

[kao_hsien_chih]

To be honest, I imagine that from the perspective of the white people (sorry, I have to go there), people like me, whose ancestors come from abroad, might be the "interesting" people with different outlooks on life, but to me, the most interesting people I met were in Decatur, Ames, Raleigh, Fayetteville (AR), Richmond, Natchitoches, Tyler (TX), Gettysburg, Baton Rouge, and Minden (LA)--more South than not, but that's because of my travel patterns, I guess. I never did quite understand the sense among the city folk that the country folk are monolithic and uninteresting, and, well, I did spend some time ranting about feeling like I'm being put in a box by usually well-meaning (but not always) but off-putting and presumptuous (white) city folk.

[gowithit]

Not to "rain on the parade", though, Trump appears to be already backsliding on his MANY REPEATED pronouncements: Now not supporting Israeli capitol move to Jerusalem, as he promised; Keeping the Iran Nuke deal in place, just "police it better" (was gonna rip it up!"); Not gonna "drain DC swamp" of lobbyists as he promised (see NY Times below).
What's next, the Mex Wall to fall before even put up? Tax cuts for middle class gone, while making big corp tax cuts?

[turcopolier]

gowuthit

Sounds good to me. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

I think European-American is a better substitute for "white people"; after all, "Han" means "White People" as well.

[kao_hsien_chih]

CSU and CDU never competed against each other except in the very first set of elections under the Federal Republic. Since 1990s, the Gruenen and the SPD have been developing a similar relationship, at least at the federal level, and a less obv one between CSU/CDU and the FDP--except for the implosion of the latter. My understanding is that die Linke does not really count since they are not coalitionable with anyone. So the two stable blocks--SPD and CSU/CDU, plus their formerly two potential coalition partners, the Gruenen and the FDP (if the latter still existed) make for 2+2. Recent upheavals in German electoral politics has been throwing me through a loop, though.

[rjj]

go wit hit -

more important than backsliding about which we can not know for sure at this time: rumor has it he bought this for $900K from one of his supporters and is having it fitted to wear at the inauguration ceremony.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/28/cf/67/28cf67e960c630068ce60423f02da1b3.jpg

[GulfCoastPirate]

turcopolier wrote:

' I suspect that you will find Trump tp be a big surprise. '

I hope so.

[GulfCoastPirate]

kao_hsien_chih wrote:

' I never did quite understand the sense among the city folk that the country folk are monolithic and uninteresting,'

I never said any such thing. You've been to Baton Rouge and Minden? I love Louisiana. There is no better food in the world (although I still make better gumbo - :) We go to Lake Charles and New Orleans frequently. We go to small towns all over Texas for festivals, etc. My point is every time you go to these places you can see they are going down and they have no idea how they are going to come back. Will Trump have the answer after lying to them? Of course not.

[GulfCoastPirate]

Babak Makkinejad wrote:

'I think you will be surprised at the low standard of living that many middle class people are experiencing in Brooklyn, in Bay Area, in Boston, and such.'

No, I wouldn't but what is your point? The coastal areas are still in better shape than the areas in the central sections of the country.

[GulfCoastPirate]

rjj wrote:

'interesting wording. cosmopolitans often have an overly parsimonious idea of diversity.'

Good grief. We = everyone in US. It's a blog where people discuss their opinions. DO you want to nitpick over every word and how I may write something or do you have a specific point you would like to make.

[Fred]

Babak,

Are any or all of the Gulf State leaders anti-Western bigots?

[Fred]

GCP,

"...additional electoral votes which also warps the representation of individuals in the electoral college."

You got that wrong. The Senate count makes them all equal. How many congressional seats do CA, TX, or NY have as a result of legal and illegal immigrants residing in there? That also makes the EC votes higher for those states since the census count applied to congressional and electoral college representation doesn't rest on citizens alone. Seems a whole lot of Americans are getting separate but equal proportional representation.

[Fred]

gowithit,

And on 60 minutes tonight no mention of "lock her up". He didn't even bit on the bait about FBI director Comey. Of course he is going to wait until he's in office since he has no executive power until January.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Only on the aggregate...

And Austin is more livable than anywhere within 70 miles of Central Park.