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08 November 2016

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optimax

Putin's going to pull it off. Will the Borg find the missing ballots?

Serge

Tyler is owed a large sum from a certain someone, I believe. Just in time for christmas

rjj

omg. 2:34 am

kao_hsien_chih

Well, Trump has won, I think.

There will be recriminations against pollsters and analysts, and many deservedly so, but was it the "data" and "polling" that was wrong or was it the interpretation? The first polling analysis that I had run, based on the polling data available in late September, projected Trump to win by about 1%, but with small majorities throughout the Midwest. I thought this projection was too weird, as did the folks that I was analyzing the data for, so I went back to the drawing board, identified what was, technically, a mistake, and redid the analyses that, depending on assumptions, showed 2-8% HRC lead in PV, but still showing reasonable chance that Trump would win EV by winning by small margins across many competitive states.

In the end, I gave Trump about 30% chance of winning via EV, and I still think it's a reasonable assessment: we still don't know if Trump actually won--there may be recounts in several states, for all we know, and it may be weeks until we know whether Trump won, officially at least. Each of these narrow wins could have gone either way and it is not a sure thing that most of them will have gone to Trump (my original map misclassified Nevada and Colorado as prospective Trump states, by narrow margins. My later projection flipped several Midwestern states, again by narrow margins.) Still, I think it is pretty likely at this stage, that Trump will be the winner, and if he is, he deserves, no, he is entitled to both our congratulations and goodwill befitting his role as the president-elect, and later, as the president.

PS. CNN is reporting that HRC has just conceded. Well, let us wish President-Elect Trump all the goodwill that he deserves. It is the only decent thing to do as Americans.

kooshy

Congratulation America and the rest of the world

aleksandar

So far
Trump : 276
Clinton : 218

Harry

Every time I lose faith in the common sense of ordinary American people I find that they correct my lack of faith. The DNC should have listened to their voters.

Aka

I'm beginning wonder whether msm also "improved" the HRC winning chances during those months worth predictions and surveys.

ToivoS

Well I was surprised. My congratulations to you Mr Tyler for seeing what was coming. I thought you were a deluded partisan but you were right.

HawkOfMay

Turns out you were correct Tyler.

I was thinking about replying yesterday saying that I 'think' Hillary will win but I would not place any bets on the question.

Charles Michael

When you will read this Trump victory it will be already old news; but as the show is over and a new one also fascinating is about to start, I want to express my sympathy to all here who opposed the Clintons gang.
With a speciak mension to the exhuberant Tyler, and many thanks for the ligth brougth by SSC.

Incredible USA, amazing success against all odds of a very amateur, I wish you all the best.
And may a reformed US politic pave the way again for this decrepit, spinless Europe.

PS: this morning on Al Masdar News, they reported the deaths in Mossul of already 16 US soldiers, French one have been already reported in Irak and Libyia.

johnf

Craig Murray, the ex-British Ambassador sacked for revealing Britain's role the use of torture, and whose blog played a small but useful part in Trump's victory on social media:


"Mainstream Media: Don’t Mention Wikileaks

I have been six hours watching “experts” across mainstream channels analyse why their earlier statements were totally wrong. There has been not one single mention of #WikiLeaks – or of social media at all. The clapped out old journalistic hacks are in denial that their mechanisms of control are now irrelevant, and they as greasy cogs in those mechanisms are viewed with contempt. The contrast between the mainstream media political narrative and what people were saying on social media was absolutely stark. People got their information from #WikiLeaks.

The Democrats chose the most Establishment candidate possible. Probably the only Democrat candidate who could have lost to Donald Trump was Hillary Clinton. Oh alright then, Weiner could have lost too, but that was about it. All those journalists who WikiLeaks showed contrived with Clinton and the DNC to cheat Sanders, may directly have caused President Trump. All those who contributed hundreds of millions to the Clintons and their “charity” Foundation to buy influence, look at this moment like they wasted their money."

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2016/11/mainstream-media-dont-mention-wikileaks/

John Minnerath

The great mass of deplorable unwashed have spoken.
The "Establishment" that felt it had a permanent mandate for running this country are going to have a real hard time dealing with this overwhelming defeat.

Cee

Tyler,

I'm not. I was one of those pitchfork voters but for different reasons than yours.
We came. She's gone. Cackle!
I wonder if she'll have to live in a toxic trailer like the ones the CF gave to poor Haitians after keeping $ raised for them.

JJackson

David and All
Firstly thanks again for another considered, informative piece which is a pleasure to read.

I think this bit nicely sums up the problem.
"If you simply do not know what you need to know to make the decisions you have to make, however ‘rational’ and ‘smart’ you are, you will make a mess of things."
Inside the DC bubble the groupthink is so pervasive it has its own 'reality' which is somewhat removed from any approximation of an objective reality. As a consequence those swimming in this soup have little chance of making sage decisions given their foundations are based on false premises.
Given Trump's win it will be interesting to see what kind of bubble Trump will swim in and where he will draw his advice from. I doubt the normal Think-Tank, K street, Foggy bottom pool will really be a very good fit what I don't understand is who outside of this have the needed contacts and experience to run his Government given the Executive branch's limitations to effect change in an otherwise hostile political environment. I suspect the result is the best option for the rest of the planet but am not sure America is going to have an easy ride internally.

David Habakkuk

mistah charly, Ph.D.

You are of course, absolutely right – ‘she’ was a slip for ‘he’. I was just heading up for an early night when I wrote, in the expectation that the really interesting time would probably from the early morning (our time) onwards.

It must have been just after you posted that we woke. It was just in time for the Ohio result. I felt a profound sense of relief beginning to creep over me. And now, however uncertain the future, I feel as though a dark cloud has lifted.

The ending of a piece which Philip Giraldi posted yesterday, entitled ‘Oh, What a Lovely War!’, said what I think better that I could myself:

‘Part of the problem with Trump is that he has some very bad ideas mixed in with a few good ones and no one knows what he would actually do if he were president. Unfortunately, it is all too clear what Hillary would do.’

(See http://www.unz.com/article/oh-what-a-lovely-war/ .)

Harry

That's the last neuroscientist I listen to.

Nancy K

Tyler you were right and never wavered in your conviction. As you know I didn't vote for him but I do accept the nation has spoken and he is our president. President Trump that will take some getting use to.

irf520

We all dodged a bullet there. And judging by the margins of victory (around 1% in a few states) the bullet took some skin off the tip of my nose as it whistled past.

Babak Makkinejad

You did that last year, if memory serves.

 jld

Is this an echo of the famous Churchill quote:
"... after they tried everything else."

robt willmann

On the issue of a "special counsel" or "special prosecutor", the Attorney General can appoint an attorney from inside or outside of the Justice Department to handle a specific matter. The Independent Counsel law, which expired in 1999, authorized a panel of three federal judges to appoint an independent counsel, and they selected the person rather than the Attorney General, which removed the selection completely from the Justice Department, although the Attorney General requested the three-judge panel to act. However, now the Attorney General is the one who appoints the special counsel.

Ironically, it was James Comey -- when he was Deputy Attorney General (Number 2) in the Justice Department -- who appointed Patrick Fitzgerald, who was the U.S. Attorney in Chicago, to handle the matter of the disclosure of Valerie Plame's name as a CIA covert operator. Attorney General John Ashcroft had recused himself. Fitzgerald tried the case and got a conviction of Irving Lewis "Scooter" Libby, Jr., who was VP Dick Cheney's chief of staff.

Title 28, United States Code, section 515--

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/515

"(a) The Attorney General or any other officer of the Department of Justice, or any attorney specially appointed by the Attorney General under law, may, when specifically directed by the Attorney General, conduct any kind of legal proceeding, civil or criminal, including grand jury proceedings and proceedings before committing magistrate judges, which United States attorneys are authorized by law to conduct, whether or not he is a resident of the district in which the proceeding is brought."

Title 28, United States Code, section 543--

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/543

"(a) The Attorney General may appoint attorneys to assist United States attorneys when the public interest so requires, including the appointment of qualified tribal prosecutors and other qualified attorneys to assist in prosecuting Federal offenses committed in Indian country."

Here is a discussion from 2013 of the issue of special counsels, variously named, by the Congressional Research Service (8 pages)--

http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/211402.pdf

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