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05 November 2016

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Swamp Yankee

If memory is correct, this reminds me of the exchange in October, 1962, when Kennedy (John) asked, I believe it was Gen. Curtis LeMay, what the Soviets would do in response to a US bombing raid on their facilities in Cuba that he (Lemay) was advocating. "Nothing," replied LeMay. "Nothing," responds LeMay. "Nothing? General, I can assure you that they're not going to do nothing," Kennedy replies. I believe this account comes from RFK's "13 Days", so take that for what it's worth (n.b. I'm not a big Kennedy fan in general, just think they're right here; like Harvard, the closer you live to them, the less you think of them). The point is, relying on the Russians simply not responding seems ludicrous and divorced from reality to me, both then and now.

William Fitzgerald

I see three possibilities. Petraeus is either mad as a hatter, thick as a post, or auditioning for a role in the new administration's presumably neo-con oriented foreign policy crew. The last seems likely.

WPFIII

Ghostship

Apparently the jihadists are now prepared to let anyone under 14 or over 55 leave East Aleppo for $300. I'm sure that with a decent negotiator that $300 fee could be extended to people of all ages. Perhaps someone could start a crowd-funding scheme to pay the jihadists to let everyone who wants to leave do so. If there really are only 40,000 people left in East Aleppo and about 9,000 of those are jihadists, then the total sum that would need to be raised would be less that $10 millon. Perhaps the Clinton Foundation might care to contribute as they could easily afford to pick up the entire bill.

Bill H

Petraeus Told us exactly who he is when he wrote an op-ed in 2004 in the New York Times essentially advocating the reelection of George W. Bush.

Old Microbiologist

I have been keeping my eye on him and the other political cronies of the neocon Borgist elements. Soon after he was "punished" for giving away classified documents he was posted to Kosovo. https://inserbia.info/today/2015/02/former-cia-chief-controls-most-of-the-media-in-serbia-report/

That is a strange place to end up but it shows the longer game plans the US has for regions which show any kind of support to Russia at all. Here in Hungary we have been subjected to visits from Nuland and McCain ad nauseum. The US is trying very hard to push forward the creation of yet another version of Kosovo with the desire to create the Republic of Srpska out of Bosnian territory. Of note, ISIS and Al Qaddafi both have active training camps in Bosnia, with US and Saudi support.

Peter Reichard

The rehabilitation of Petraeus began with a high priced sinecure provided to him by Henry Kravis of KKR. Kravis, his wife Marie-Josee of the Hudson Institute and the General all attended the uber elite Bilderberg Conference in 2013. Since no more than about sixty Americans are allowed entry each year the fact that Petraeus was reinvited after his apparent fall from grace means that he is really still a major player behind the scenes. Now an adviser to Hillary let us hope he is not brought back into a position of power in her administration.

Anna

Next step in the "humanitarian" mission in Syria: https://www.rt.com/news/365533-syria-raqqa-rebels-us/
"Syrian rebels start campaign to retake ISIS ‘capital’ Raqqa with US air cover"

"Several hundred US Special Forces operatives were sent into Syria earlier this year to “advise and assist” the SDF. The United States considers the YPG the most effective force against IS, but Turkey has repeatedly said it will not accept a role for the Kurds in the liberation of Raqqa. Ankara, a key US ally in the region, regards the Syrian Kurds as terrorists allied with Kurdish insurgents inside Turkey. “Our hope is that the Turkish state will not interfere in the internal affairs of Syria,” an unidentified SDF official declared at Sunday’s press conference."

norlurking

He is another example of American exceptionalism.......truly disgusting person...

Dr. George W. Oprisko

"The Russians always stop"

What if they don't???????????????

Ghostship

He might be although I haven't seen any real evidence so far, such as putting his underpants on his head, sticking a pencil up either nostril and saying "wibble, wibble, wibble". On the over hand, from the evidence in that single articles, it's fairly save to say that he really is a classic moron.
Where does he think all these aircraft are going to fly from? NATO airbases in south eastern Europe? Has either Russia or Syria attacked NATO? No. Is there an UNSC resolution allowing the creation of an NFZ in Syria? No. Will there ever be? No. Do Cyprus, Greece, Turkey or Italy want to get into a real war with Russia just to advance the United States's geopolitical ambitions? No. So, I expect and hope that the European NATO members will sit this one out as neutrals. Oh, and good luck trying to run the whole shabang out of RAF Akrotiri if the UK will allow it.
That leaves naval air power so perhaps the USN will use their carrier battle groups. Fortunately for the world most seem to be unfit for service, so that leaves at most two CBGs that could be deployed. How effective would they be at the end of such a long logistics tail (because the European NATO partners are neutrals). Actually, how long would they last?
So far, Putin's most effective weapons have probably been a fax machine and a packet of A4 paper, oh, and the Hague Convention of 1907, or whatever the modern equivalent is.
http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/hague13.asp
Just who wants to be a belligerent in World War III when the United States is the aggressor?

LeaNder

The US is trying very hard to push forward the creation of yet another version of Kosovo with the desire to create the Republic of Srpska out of Bosnian territory.

Further info? Have not paid much attention on the Balkan region lately.

The larger problems seem to be unemployment, poverty and privatization resulting in the usual asset stripping instead of investment: see 2014 protests.

But the KKK activities surely are interesting. ...

***********

it shows the longer game plans the US has for regions which show any kind of support to Russia at all.

Does it?

The "Europe Magazine" on our public channels just had one feature about how 'Russian propaganda' influence public opinion in the Czech Republic. Only got a glimpse, while getting a coffee on Czech opinion polls. Russian Propaganda: Older media theme over here in Germany. ... complex ;)

Seems it was based on research done by the Prague Security Studies Institute, but they may be looking at the larger Central and Eastern European (CEE) context:
http://pssi.cz/
http://www.pssi.cz/russia-s-influence-activities-in-cee

LeaNder

Sorry, KKR ...

ex-PFC Chuck

I just ran across a provocative piece by F. William Engdahl at New Eastern Outlook that purports to connect hidden dots between the HRC scandals and policies, recent events. etc. in the Middle East and North Africa. The tl/dr is an assertion that Huma Abedin is a Muslim Brotherhood mole. I don't know much more about Engdahl than what's in his Wikepedia entry. The NEO is put out by the St. Petersburg-based Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Any thoughts on the credibility of Engdahl on this?

http://journal-neo.org/2016/11/04/the-real-huma-gate-crime-is-the-muslim-brotherhood/

Harry

He is a Narses -look up Belisarius. He dumpsters his loyalty and had been rewarded for that. Competency is by the by.

It's one of the symptoms of declining empires .

mike allen

Or perhaps go 50/50 with the Trump Foundation?

Babak Makkinejad

US policymakers ejected Iranians out of Bosnia - yet again adjudicating among the sects of an alien religion.

Babak Makkinejad

One could ponder the situation in which Russia would not retaliate in Syria. But that only brings forward the final reckoning as the Russian Federation will be forced into a corner, sooner rather than later, that retaliation will become the only course of action.

As I stated before, they can retaliate in their Near-Abroad - especially where significant Russian people reside. They could emasculate the 3 Baltic republics in a shorter time than NATO states could react.

Babak Makkinejad

I think that scenario would leave US occupying parts of Southern Iran for decades - sort of like Israel in Lebanon; all the while waging a guerrilla war against Iranians.

morongobill

This is really starting to shape up to a brawl. You have the bully who has feasted for years on a string of tomato cans and this time he may be picking on the wrong dude. You've all seen it, I'm sure. The big mouth who's used to intimidating or beating up defenseless or weaker opponents running into a quiet man who just wants to be left alone. He tries to talk his way out of the fight, but at some point he figures out that this guy is going to try to beat the living Hell out of me, and it is on. Out of nowhere, a devastating string of blows(at a time of his choosing)and the bully is down, and scared to get up.

Hopefully, everyone here knows that Putin is a judo expert and a former streetfighter. He believes in getting in the first punch, actually many, to win the fight.

Sorry for introducing such a lowbrow analogy into the foreign policy discussion.

David Habakkuk

Peter Reichard,

‘let us hope he is not brought back into a position of power in her administration.’

We may certainly hope that. But it would, I think, be unwise to be unduly optimistic on the point, and also there seems every reason to fear that even if Petraeus does not get to exercise significant influence, many of those who do will have views not so far from his.

Back in March 2014 – to quote the ‘Washington Post’ report from the time – Hillary Clinton ‘compared Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine to actions taken by Nazi leader Adolf Hitler outside Germany in the run-up to World War II.’

If indeed Petraeus suggested that Putin always stops the moment he runs up against an immovable object – and I have not yet had time to watch the video – he is expressing the same delusional mindset.

The assumption is that the fact that the Russians would never tolerate Sevastopol becoming a NATO naval base indicates that they are itching to send the tanks rolling towards Kiev, Riga etc.

As it happens, it patently was an ‘existential’ matter for the Russians to prevent the whole of Ukraine becoming part of NATO. Likewise, it is an ‘existential’ matter for them to ‘contain’, and insofar as is possible ‘roll back’, the explosive spread of jihadism for which people like David Petraeus and Hillary Clinton – as also Tony Blair and David Cameron – have a not entirely trivial share of responsibility.

It is out of this fundamental inability to understand what is driving Putin’s policy which is shared by Hillary and most of those likely to advise her that the danger of really serious miscalculation on the American side comes.

And this is a central reason why many people who find all kinds of aspects of Donald Trump deeply unappealing think that, in relation to this election, it is a case of ‘better the devil you don’t know.’

robt willmann

ex-PFC Chuck,

I do not know about Engdahl and what his sources of information are. But the volume of e-mails said to be on the laptop -- 650,000 -- is of course intriguing. I still have the opinion I expressed earlier that both Weiner and Huma Abedin were using the laptop. They separated on 29 August, just two months ago--

http://www.npr.org/2016/08/29/491814613/huma-abedin-to-separate-from-anthony-weiner-after-new-sexting-allegations

A few days ago, on 3 November, the State Department released some e-mails, and one, from August 2010 between Hillary Clinton and Abedin, has the astonishing information that Huma was going to send a secure cell phone to Hillary from Washington DC by Federal Express (!) and then Hillary asks whether one of Weiner's "trusted aides" could deliver it--

https://foia.state.gov/searchapp/DOCUMENTS/Nov03_2016/F-2016-07895_1-21/DOC_0C06131860/C06131860.pdf

http://nypost.com/2016/11/04/emails-show-how-much-clinton-trusted-anthony-weiner/

According to the Washington Post in a March 2016 article, the total number of e-mails on Hillary's private e-mail server was 62,320 and that the address she used while secretary of state was hdr22@clintonemail.com. She had delivered to the State Department in December 2014 paper printouts of around 30,000 e-mails, and she deleted around 32,000 so-called personal e-mails.

650,000 minus 62,320 equals 587,680, which means that there are allegedly over a half million more e-mails on the Weiner/Abedin laptop than were on Hillary's private server, if the laptop contained all of them that were on the server. But what the evidence is, if any, that there was a total of 62,320 e-mails on her server, and not more, is unknown. I have wondered what the proof is that the total on her server was around 62,000; I have yet to read what it is.

In my opinion, it is possible that both Abedin and Weiner were informants for persons outside the U.S. government, including foreigners, but a lot of things possibly could have gone on in that game.

gowithit

Naw, Trump has more pictures of himself to buy with that foundation $.

Old Microbiologist

al Qaeda, my Ipad has a mind of its own sometimes.

The prssure is being applied to any former Soviet allied countries that dare to voice disagreement to US policies. The Balkans are ripe for continued unrest as nothing was really settled, merely pacified. But, I think that they are very tired of fighting. However, it wouldn't take much to re-ignite things. I frequent Bosnia, Slovenia, and Croatia a lot as they are close and things are not all that forgiven there yet despite 25 years later. The recent immigration problems have escalated the separation of East Europe from West Europe. There are also extant problems remaining from poor decisions made after perestroika and later some very bad deals made as part of the enticement to join the EU. We see lots of produce, appliances,, cars, etc. made in Western Europe but nothing from here ends up there in return (other than things made here but attributed to Germany). What this does is makes this region simmer awaiting ignition. However, try as hard as they can they cannot get these stubborn Eastern Europeans to cooperate.

Kosovo is an identical problem as Crimea yet because it was done by the US it is deemed okay. The missile bases in Tomania and radar installations in Spain and Poland are a nuisane at best but are a continued irritant to Russia. Serbia has been relatively loyal to Russia and Kosovo was a big FU to them over this. Syrpska is yet another irritant as is bringing Montenegro into NATO. The real problems will occur in the central Asian areas with Armenia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgystan, Turkmenistan, Azaerbaijan who will receive whatever remains of ISIs and Al Qaeda after the Syrian game ends. Of course Iran will once again reappear as an existential threat as well and pressure will be appoied on all fronts. Perhaps if Trump wins this all can be cancelled but a lot of it is well on the way to fruition.

David Habakkuk

Babak Makkinejad,

At no point has there been any indication whatsoever that the Russians have been contemplating military intervention in the Baltics. And it would not be in their interest to do so.

Currently, figures like General Petraeus are doing their level best to persuade much middle-of-the-road opinion here that their lords and masters are not focused on real threats – jihadists and mass migration – but are desperate to conjure up unreal spectres of attacks from Russia, and are willing to run risks of all-out war with that country for no good reason at all.

It is not in the Russian interest to do anything that vindicates the ‘Cold War retro’ approach of so many in Western élites, at precisely the point when it is coming under serious political challenge.

Dr. George W. Oprisko

That is what I think will happen............

I am a Russian..... my grand father emigrated in 1908.

True story..... an example of how Russians think.......

In 7th grade, following my mis-spelling of "experience" in a spelling contest, a fellow student Robert Wadsworth (a WASP) took it upon him self to make my life miserable. His taunts, and provocations continued until one afternoon during my senior year in H.S. Previous attempts by father and friends to teach me to fight had no effect.
Finally, I had enough. On the way home he challenged me, and I stood my ground. I started hitting him as taught. I kept hitting him. Each and every time he got up and came at me, I hit him until he went down. The police came, and told me to leave. I said "I'm not leaving, I'm not going anywhere. The only one leaving is him". Then I started to convert his face into hamburger with my fists.

Finally, he ran away.

He never bothered me again.

This is what I believe will be the fate of the US. They will go too far.... and it will be a fight to the finish.....

A fight quite unlike anything the DOD has prepared for.......
I'm thinking spetznaz attacks on the GRID, Gas pipelines, Oil pipelines, key bridges and tunnels, for starters......
Then mass cruise missile attacks using micro nukes 1-5 Kt based upon cold fusion technologies against airbases, naval bases, army bases, bridges, tunnels, locks, dams
While Anti-sub HK groups destroy the SSBNs using nuke torpedoes.

FYI, I was Navy during 68-70

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