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22 October 2016

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F5F5F5

It looks to me as though the right hand of the US/Allies is coming ever closer to fighting its own left hand. Just like a child knocking two toy cars against each other.

Peter Reichard

Lost in the focus on Aleppo and Mosul is the fact that the Turkish invasion is a major escalation and complication of this conflict. Of course the Turks want to prevent a link up of the Afrin and Kobane Kurds as part of their standing fear of Kurdish power but the larger issue is that the fall of al-Bab cuts the last supply line to all the rebels south and east of Aleppo including ISIS, thus game over for them. The rapid withdrawal of ISIS makes me suspicious that a deal was cut with them to pave the road to al-Bab for Turkish and allied rebel forces so as to preserve this lifeline. The best solution is for al-Bab to fall to the SAA but alas, their hands are full in Aleppo and elsewhere.

aleksandar

TTG
IMO the next COA is to break Deir ez Zor siège and then go north to Tabqah along Euphrat to cut crossing possibilies and ISIS reinforcements.
That will also let Syrian have back oil fields.

Vic

I do not believe that the IC has a clue concerning what the Turks military objectives are in Syria. It must now be obvious to even Secretary of State Kerry, that the stated reasons for the invasion are not the real reasons.

Will Turkey go on to attack and occupy all Kurdish areas of Syria? Do they intend to establish a safe haven for civilians (and ISIS/JN)? Will they move on Aleppo? Or are they aiming for the big prize, to spear had the rebels to topple Assad?

Also don't forget about Turkish forces in Iraq. They demand to fight in Mosul. At the same time they talk about their historic claims to Mosul. What is up with that?

What are they up to? Kerry and Ash Carter are seemingly being lied to and believing these lies (if not cheer leading the Turks actions). I also believe that the intelligence services of NATO also don't have a clue. NATO has expressed no concern over Turkish actions that could result in a brush up with Russian forces in Syria. Also, no western country objected at the UN to a the blatant invasion of Syria by Turkey, why?

I have more questions than answers.

Vic

Anna

http://www.voltairenet.org/article193819.html
Asking for your comments on the following statements in the Thierry Meyssan' article:
1. "Contrary to what has been reported, the operation of 15 July 2016 was not an attempted coup d’état, but an attempt to eliminate Recep Tayyip Erdoğan alone. The CIA used Turko-US industrial and military connections in order to recruit a small team within the Air Force to execute the President during his holidays.... However, this team was betrayed by Islamist officers..."
2. Saudi Arabia is just as indispensable for the United States as Turkey... the CIA organized ... the succession of King Abdallah in January 2015. On the night of the sovereign’s death, the majority of the inefficient civil servants was relieved of its functions, and the country was reorganised according to a pre-established plan."

Kooshy

Babak
IMO, Turkey and Erdogan, are very disappointed and dismayed with their American partners, and I believe they blame the American for not achieving their FP goals. Erdogan wanted to be treated as player in every important strategic plans the west had for the region. Starting with Iran' reactor fuel negotiations where he was sent to make a deal and when he did, he was publicly refuted by US and HRC. Same goes with his stand on Egypt' Morsi and his support for Akhvans, and on to Libya and Syria. IMO he blames the US for his bad FP decisions he feels he is deceived. He feels he has paid to play but is not allowed to play.

mike allen

Back at the end of August, the US said Turkey's actions after taking Jarabulus were "unacceptable". Key word here being 'after' as we supported Turkey's intial push into Jarabulus to secure their borders. But we did complain when they went further south. I agree with you that Obama, Kerry and NATO should have spoken out more forcefully so that Erdo would get the message. My guess is they were afraid Turkey would kick them out of Incirlik. Or drop out of the NATO alliance?

I wonder whatever happened with the rumors that we were rebuilding an airfield in the Syrian Kurdish Canton of Cizre in order to lessen dependence on Incirlik?

At the time of the initial Turkish incursion into Jarabulus, CENTCOM commander Joseph Votel said that "the US will continue to support the YPG" and then withdrew support from Euphrates Shield when Turkish troops and proxies went further south. This infuriated Erdogan who has had a long running feud with General Votel. But I note that Obama and Carter have not bowed to Turkish pressure to relieve Votel, as he is still firmly in command of CENTCOM.

Will

Iran has also had its problems w/ Azeri Turks and Kurds
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Mahabad
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijan_People%27s_Government

Babak Makkinejad

On your second item - the Wiki states: "Puppet state of the Soviet Union".

That is accurate.

I think when Soviets refused to leave, in 1948, Iranian government took the issue to UNSC - supported by the United States. That contributed to the (misplaced, as future events established) trust in the United States as a benign power - as far as Iranian interests were concerned.

Babak Makkinejad

That was my sense of it too. But then he went and provoked the Bear, and for what?

Gitte Jensen

Agreed. 48 hours ago I predicted that the limit of TUR invasion would be along rough axis AZAZ-EL-BAB-MANBIJ-FURAT(Euphrates). TUR would then declare a "Green Line" for a "safe haven/buffer zone"status and dig in, permanently just like they did in Cyprus some 40 years ago, and like the Israelis in Golan they're still there !!. As other have pointed out, their favorite Islamic terrorist proxies re-badged FSA in the lead, DaIISH mysteriously withrawing in good order and TUR conducting virtual Relief-In-Place sequence with latest M60 T Sabra III tanks (google for specs) plus heavy 155 mm SP artillery all now threatening Halab N Sheikh Maqsood area held by YPG. Now to cut to the chase, who can/will defend the Syrian Kurds against TUR genocide in NW Syria enclave or west of Euphrates ? No-one, the Kurds are finished, they trusted the Americans for support, can anyone really think the Americans would fight TUR on their behalf ? Meanwhile we have the faux battle for Mosul, telegraphed months in advance so that DaIISH can redeploy forces and heavy weapons west in time for the major attack on Deir az-Zour. Sorry guys but the chances of Syria surviving within current borders as a sovreign nation-state look slim, the unholy evil cabal of US-GB-FR-ISR-SA-QTR-TUR are hell bent on finishing the destruction and dismembering of Syria which has been their goal all along. The Syrian people, noble and brave. will resist to the end, but unless Russia can show some backbone and stand up to TUR for once the aggression will continue

LeaNder

but unless Russia can show some backbone and stand

Gitte, are you new here? If so, welcome.

I don't think it's about Russia showing some backbone. Maybe about the other side trying to do something that seems almost illusinary? Besides, if you don't mind it feels a bit of a standard. No idea, how to put it. Maybe this way: If you "feel" that "your own larger camp/authorities/alliances" (in this case) are totally fucked up, it makes sense to look for some type of outside savior.

permanently just like they did in Cyprus some 40 years ago, and like the Israelis in Golan they're still there !!.

I vaguely thought about that, wondering about land gains by war in the larger region. Not least since it seems to be often both on the back of the mind of commenters and maybe vaguely too on mine, just as allegedly on the side of e.g. ISIS. Only a very, very limited grasp on the mental universe in the region... What's the larger history of central paradigms on the side of "our" camp versus the "other" side?

Admittedly at the moment it reminds me that have no solid background in the relevant history. Only glimpses. But: I have this edition of Lawrence of Arabia on my Kindle, and maybe finally should read it. And not worry too much about if it is or is or isn't an abbreviated version. There were several war related statements by a favorite prof in his lectures on Modernism, that related to a battle. I think it was Gallipoli:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallipoli_Campaign

Which only remains on my mind, since it didn't make sense at the time.

LeaNder

just as allegedly on the side of e.g. ISIS

OK, maybe I should have dropped the "allegedly", but I never seriously looked into the multi-language propaganda of ISIS or any other parties involved, beyond the documents spread supposedly originating with Bin Laden ... for the very simple reason, I do not read or understand Arabic*. And I am a Thomas, I am hesitant about matters, if I cannot "touch the wound".

* maybe that helps me to not get caught up in a larger rumor mill?

Babak Makkinejad

In Cyprus, there is a Turkic population which supports the occupation by Turkey. No such equivalent population exists in Syria or in Iraq. Furthermore, even the anti-Iran/anti-Shia Arab governments oppose any changes to the borders of Iraq as well as Syria. Turkish occupying forces, in my opinion, will be harassed for as long as they stay there; they would be forced to withdraw - just like the Israelis were forced to withdraw after 18 years from Lebanon.

mike allen

Kurdish media reporting:

ISTANBUL — Russia and Turkey have agreed to share intelligence on Syria. Russia will send intelligence it has on Syria to aid Turkey in conducting its operation Euphrates Shield. This was agreed upon during Putin’s latest visit to Turkey earlier this October.

The Russian delegation which also included the Chief of General Staff of Russia Valery Gerasimov, spoke on this subject with his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar.

The first deputy chairman of the Defense and Security Committee of the Federation Council Franz Klintsevich, told the Russian news outlet Izvestiya, that Turkey has joined the pool of intelligence sharing created by Russia, Syria, Iraq and Iran.

“We pass intercepted radio data, electronic and optical imagery intelligence that may be of interest to the Turkish side. In turn, they also share information. The Turks have a very effective special service and very good agents in Syria,” he said.

Not sure where they got this. I could not find it elsewhere, in English anyway. Perhaps a translation of Turkish or Russian news media??

Thomas

"And I am a Thomas, I am hesitant about matters, if I cannot "touch the wound"."

This trait comes from quick adaptability of hard lessons learned in life through dealing with fools, f-ck-ups and liars.

Consider it an essential survival skill.

Kooshy

Mike I read this on AMN al masdar this morning apparently they got that from Russian news sites

Kooshy

Sorry here is the link
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-turkey-exchange-military-intelligence-syria/

Annem

Actually, a large number of the Kurds living in Rojava are indeed from Turkey and that is why the Assad government years ago took their Syrian citizenship away during a conflict. There were about 100,000+ that were suddenly stateless. At the start of this civil war, the regime offered to give back their citizenship in exchange for loyalty, etc. These people came to Syria after the Sheikh Said Rebellion in southeastern Turkey in the 1920s against the centralizing efforts of the new Turkish republic.

Ritchiepage2001

The Putin brokered deal sounds unlikely, and not just because King Bashar doesn't share, or play well with others.

While the SDF is mainly Kudish, there is a significant contingent of Syriacs, Arabs and others, who are not interested in seeing Assad in any position, outside of a box.

Larry M.

Larry M. said in reply to charly

most of the four million Syrians who have left Syria during the war are staying in three neighbouring countries: Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. Going there costs only a fraction of the trip to Germany or Sweden. My point is that all of those four million are now outside Syria, regardless of whether they are in Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon or in Europe.

Haralambos,
I was just talking about Syrian refugees (asylum seekers), in neighbouring countries or in Europe, not about the hundreds of thousands of Afghans, Africans and others who try to get into European Union countries.

charly

But my expectation is that a very high percentage of the TLJ refugees will be returned.

Larry M.

Charly,

I share your expectation that most Syrian refugees now in neighbouring countries will return after the war. As for those in Europe, only time will tell whether they will become a means of EU pressure on Damascus or vice versa.

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