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20 October 2016

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Babak Makkinejad

Why not? Those cheerful people, called Filipinos, why should they die in wars. Switzerland has had 400 years of peace; with sons burying fathers and not the other way around.

Babak Makkinejad

As an old adversary of the Sassanid Empire, I must say to the decline of Rome with the biblical adage: "Let it decline" and thank God for that.

Tidewater

Tidewater to Lemur,

Negotiation about what? There's nothing to negotiate. This is about freedom of the seas. Everybody around the South China Sea has the right to transit and make use of the sea for maritime commerce; to fish in the sea; and to allow military, commercial, cultural alliances east or west among the various nations with littorals on the South China Sea; and to allow port visits from the navies of these alliances. It is common sense!

If you mean negotiations about oil--I think they had better learn to share. Whatever those negotiations may be, putting the military power the Chinese have put out on those rocks tells us that this is the forced move, increment by increment, by discreet, sophisticated totalitarians. China is a mafia state.

If there is conflict between Chinese forces and the United States Navy--and I am beginning to think it is better now than later-- I hope that we are able to place very squarely on these new artificial islands many J-DAMs. These will go deep down, detonate, and turn everything above it into cracks, broken pipes, out-pouring fresh water from smashed desalination plants, leaking fuel supplies, slanting runways tilting like old Richmond sidewalks, sinking sections of coral rubble...and then, if need be, send in the SEABEEs to finish the return to nature.

Yes, what I am saying is right out of the blue, right out of nowhere, completely unexpected comes the something unexpected--we must militarily confront China. Now.

A human cull is going to come, believe it or not. Sooner. Or. Later. Please bear that in mind.

Babak Makkinejad

We have to wait and see the level of their innovation over the next few centuries...

DavidKNZ

If you want to see their level of innovation over the LAST several centuries, read
" The Man Who Loved China: The Fantastic Story of the Eccentric Scientist Who Unlocked the Mysteries of the Middle Kingdom" by
Simon Winchester - bookzz.org

Aka

sir,
I think Duterte has made too many enemies that it might not be that difficult to get rid of him.

And Russia and China may stop a military intervention but Philippines remains (even with flaws) a democracy. Duterte has to face elections. Enough bad press and a strong coalition against him and he would fail.

Cee

Temer may go next.

http://www.bullfax.com/?q=node-ex-legislator-who-led-impeachment-against-brazils-ouste

Alves

Globo? Screw it. I lived under her, saw our economy melt due to her screw ups, had my pension fund smoney stolen by her party mates to finance her party, her election and luxuries for lots of politicians.

12 million unemployed workers, Petrobras and pension funds busted, all due to incompetence and corruption. Need I say more?

The bottom line is that our Supreme Court, with more than 70% of its judges appointed by her or by her predecessor, said multiple times that the impeachment is perfectly legal.

Aka

asx ,
Pakistan's problem seems to be that US gives mostly a free hand to India for Indias policy towards its neighbors. Probably because US needs India as a ally against China (And India plays everyone. See India-Russia relations).

And Indians are openly neo-cons (If i may use the word). She meddles in every aspect of its neighbors governance going far as shaping the their constitutions (see Nepal and Sri Lanka) or soft power regime changes (2015 Sri Lanka, Maldives for some time, Nepal for sometime).

Considering above facts, Pakistan must be worried that US will abandon it over India. Or at least Pakistan must see this happening in the near future.

Alves

Just to add something regarding Greenwald: his life partner was a candidate for the city council of Rio in the elections that just happened, as a member of a socialist party that supported Dilma and ran based in the coup discourse.

Looks like "he" self-financed his own campaign, transfering money worth 3 times his declared assets.

After discovering those little details, it no longer is a surprise that Gleen does his best to smear Brazil, despite having been well received here and past history of worthy causes.

mike allen

President Duterte is an interesting guy. He is one of few presidents of Visayan instead of Tagalog descent, not pure Visayan though, his grandfather immigrated from China. He reportedly bragged to the Philippine media that he once shot a fraternity brother in law school who teased him about his ancestry.

I understand he has not yet given in to China on the sovereignty issue of the Spratly's and the Scarborough Shoals. And he has not yet abrogated mutual accords like the Visiting Forces Agreement and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement that I have heard (so far anyway!). Just last month he was quoted as saying: "I never said get out of the Philippines, for after all, we need them there in the China Sea. We don’t have armaments." Although he has asked US SOF that were helping the Philippine military fight the modern day Moro insurgency to leave Mindanao.

I miss the Subic Bay of the old days. Once saw a shadetree mechanic there brazing a cracked water pump on the street next to his car. Did a better job than I or my machinist uncle could ever have done. Witnessed a sidewalk balut-eating contest (100 year old eggs) between a Navy Chief and a papasan bar owner. Fell in love with a teenage Senorita there, but I was only a teenage Pfc myself. Music everywhere and the locals loved the sound of singing, everybody sang. It was like the traditional music culture of Appalachia or Mississippi Delta or perhaps the old Welsh tradition. And my most favorite T-shirt that I ever owned I bought from a street-vending silk-screener there and had him label it "Olongapo U Alum".

Alves

In the next 6 months or so the electoral tribunal might say that he and Dilma were illegaly elected, so it can happen, and, to be honest, it should happen.

Another impeachment is unlikelly because Temer is good at politics (Dilma lost the support of roughly 70% of our congress) and criminal investigations of the president will have to wait until he is out of office

Lemur

Sorry Babak i didn't catch the thread of either of your replies

Bill H

Awesome.

whack

US response to this will be the usual attempts of colour coded revolutions, assassination and increased support to it´s Al Qaeda mercenaries, Abu Sayyaf most notably. US will probably even ship in isis at a later stage.

Lemur

Let's deconstruct this Paul Revere call in the night a little

1. Who is the 'we' that will confront China, and why will they do it? Are you referring to the oligarchs, the Jews, the ideologues of the 'liberal global order' and their depraved, decadent, parasitic politicians? I am not them. These people actively want to replace the historic nations that formed the West. What's the point for us in fighting China if we're slated for minority status? We're just bleeding now so those lucky imports from the global south enjoy a superior geopolitical position, and our corrupt elites get to stay elite elites.

2. I suppose calling the yellow peril 'sophisticated totalitarians' is fighting words to rally the 'liberal global order' for its death match against the evil commies. Well, China is an authoritarian state, not a totalitarian one, for the record. Secondly democracy is a cultural quirk of the West; I don't see why China's political system is relevant. Are they corrupt? probably. So are we. The 'liberal global order' is just a justification for a managerial elite to turn their populations into a atomized, de-cultured mass of strip mall surfs who in their state of engineered degeneracy can buy lots of useless sh*t without anyone interfering (also known as 'human rights'). Indeed, our form of totalitarianism is light years ahead of current Chinese practices.

3. China as a Great Power or potential super power will establish hegemony over its sphere of influence. All that area used to be tributaries to China. That's the reality of power differentials. And unlike the US, Chinese hegemony will most likely be strictly political, unlike the cultural poz the US insists exports. We're not going to go to war because China secures its near abroad like any Great Power must do. There's nothing we can do about it with a nuclear power like China, which will soon outmatch us conventionally in the region with a couple of decades.

4. The South China Sea is not nearly such an essential waterway as the lugenpress make it out to be: http://www.unz.com/plee/good-news-world-you-can-stop-worrying-about-the-south-china-sea/

5. All those Asian countries have overlapping, dubious claims. Bilateral negotiation is the best way to resolve that. Not war. Just watch. The Philippines will get a great deal from China in exchange for bilateral negotiations. Soon all those other 'allies' will jump on the bandwagon, leaving the US no excuse to poke its nose in as 'security provider'. But instead warhawks like yourself would much rather start a major war over legal technicalities in China's back yard that do not effect the interests of the everyday citizen in the West.

Amir

You stand corrected: Brazil's current regime themselves have acquired her personally from "fraud" though they maintained that she was was involved in mismanagement and misallocation of the budget (which is also done by previous governments but those profited PERSONALLY from their shenanigans). Your request for banishment of your former president, who was illegally impeached by a congress full of crooks, speaks volumes.

Amir

They will do a Belgian (political equivalent of going Dutch): half the family collaborates with the German invader & the second half will join the Allied Resistance, while they basically spare each other internally and sell to both externally.

Amir

You mean how much China invested in Libya prior Ghadafi's lynching and how much Libya is profiting from the liberation by Sarcopoleon and Obomba?

Amir

It will happen much faster than you think. As an example, just watch the largest airplane being built in China in a couple of years, not a century. Antonov and with that European Aerospace knowledge, is moving from Kiev's to Peking's hand.
Innovation is mostly persistent infinitesimal improvement anyway. The Big Leap is mostly a posthoc analysis.

b

There is some interesting history behind Dutere's relation to the U.S.

Not only the hundred years old U.S. brutal fight against "Muslim insurgents" in Mindanao, but a U.S. agent accidentally blowing himself up in a hotel room onyl to be scurried away by U:S. special services and various explosion "attacks" by "Islamist insurgents" in the city where Duterte was mayor just while he was trying to make peace with the Moros.

In short: He didn't appreciate that.

Recommended:
Meiring, murder, subversion, and treason: Duterte’s beef with US
http://www.atimes.com/article/meiring-murder-subversion-and-treason-dutertes-beef-with-us/

Also:
Mindanao, Duterte, and the Real History of the Philippines
http://chinamatters.blogspot.de/2016/05/mindanao-duterte-and-real-history-of.html

The guy currently has favorability rates in his population that compare with Putin - 80%+-. It will be difficult to "color revolution" him. Some other method will have to be tried ...

Pundita

TTG, thanks for discussing this. Here's how I call the situation. From the Philippine Star, November 27, 2015:

http://www.philstar.com/metro/2015/11/27/1526311/chinese-gangs-behind-philippine-illegal-drug-trade

"Nine Chinese drug cartels operating in Metro Manila are behind the illegal drug operations in the country, an official said yesterday. Interior and Local Government Secretary Mel Sarmiento said some Chinese syndicates have businesses as “legal fronts” while others have connections with influential persons. [...] what is worse is that these syndicates have penetrated even the smallest municipalities in the country, he added. [...]"

The US has been aware of this situation at least as early as 2012. See:

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/41837/chinese-syndicates-behind-drug-trade-in-philippines-says-us

There are other cartels doing business in the country, which is a major transnational hub for the illegal drug trade, but it's Chinese cartels that are the biggest problem. They are a double problem if you read through the first report, in that officials clearly believe the Chinese cartels have gained influence at the highest levels of Filipino business and government. .

I don't think there's any question that the Chinese cartels in the Philippines are controlled by China's military/civilian gov. And so I think it's reasonable to assume that aside from a cut of the profits, Beijing has used the cartels to destabilize a US ally. (I'd further assume that Beijing redoubled its efforts in this regard after the Obama admin announced an 'Asia Pivot.')

Looked at from that vantage point, Duterte's dislike for the Yankees had little to do with his 'China Pivot.' When I put myself in his shoes I would have done the same thing he did:

He's been emptying the ocean with a sieve in the attempt to stop the drug trade from destroying the country. But this has meant killing thousands of little guys with no end in sight, which is increasingly falling back on him -- and his government.

So at all costs, he must try to persuade China's government to yank the Chinese cartels from the Philippines. If the price was denouncing the Americans, sacrificing an island, and going hat in hand to China, it was a Sophie's Choice but one he had to make.

turcopolier

b

Congratulations on the numbers. In re US/Filipino relations I know that you cannot resist a chance to be critical of us. IMO the US decision, taken in an imperialist period of history worldwide, to retain control of the Philippines after the Spanish left was a bad decision. My father loved the Filipinos (evidently in many ways) but he always said that permanent retention of the Islands was out of the question because there were too many people in the islands who did not want it and would fight over it. As for the Moros the conflict between Christian and Muslims in Mindanao is far older than the US presence in the islands. pl

LeaNder

great comment, kao.

*****
Babak, I looked into your NYT suggestion. Interesting story. One of the stories that could draw me into a longer thought enterprise indeed. ... I am still somewhat undecided. Mainly since this would need a way too long study starting with a solid bibliography. But OK, my focus/angle would be art/archeology/conservation, let me give you a glimpse:

Ohalo II - Early Sea of Galilee Project (since 1989)

Initiator and director of inter-disciplinary research at the 19 ky site of Ohalo II, with research colleagues from the fields of Anthropology, Archaeology, Botany, Genetics, Geology, Micromorphology, Palaeontology, Palynology and Zoology. The research partners are from the Haifa University, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Tel Aviv University, Bar-Ilan University, Israel Antiquities Authority, Department of Isotopes at The Weitzman Institute, The Geological Survey of Israel, Western Michigan University and the Canadian Museum of Nature.
Ohalo on the internet:http://ohalo.haifa.ac.il
News on the National Geographic web site: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/01/0102galilee.html

The Twisted Genius

mike allen,

Yes, Olongapo was quite the place. During the lead up to our deployment, we were constantly reminded about the need for secrecy. We weren't even allowed to mention the name of the exercise. Imagine our surprise when we were greeted by a huge banner hung across the main street of Olangapo reading,
WELCOME COMPANY C 1/35TH INFANTRY
OPERATION TEMPO CAPER
All we could do was laugh. We would often trade our c-rations for plates of chicken adobo in the small villages within the training areas. I had three Filipinos in my platoon so we didn't really need our attached PC (Philippine Constabulary).

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