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07 October 2016

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different clue

Peter L,

Well . . . I remember opining on one of these threads about a year ago . . . ( and with enough brute-force iron-butt research I could find it) . . . that Trump would end up "letting down millions and breaking millions of hearts".

And I guess that is what he will do . . . in the end.

F5F5F5

I don't understand all the talk about Bibi or Erdogan turning to Russia.
IMHO, chutzpah just doesn't pay with the Russians, and Putin always issues a warning before he hits.

Also, all this war agitation makes me think that one faceless faction of the Borg is desperately trying to remain relevant, whilst another is eagerly waiting for the musical chairs song to begin.

Imagine

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/07/russia-says-it-may-reopen-soviet-era-military-bases-in-cuba-and/
Russia is looking to re-open base in Vietnam and esp. in Cuba. US, in case anyone isn't aware, is basing missiles in Romania and Poland that can quickly be refitted with nukes and hit Moscow in seconds in a "Reverse Cuban Missile Crisis". I predict Russia is going to respond tit-for-tat like the old days, and base nuke cruise missiles in Cuba that can hit Washington in seconds. Tit for tat, guys.

Here's the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty (1987 INF) that America is violating:
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/INFtreaty

Again, AFAIK, America actually started the first Cuban Missile Crisis by basing Jupiter missiles in Italy and Turkey.

The neocon Zionists are Wiley Coyote. Suuuperrrr genius. Playing Russian Roulette with the whole country. Watch any RoadRunner movie to see how this all turns out.

Outrage Beyond

I have the same question about Russia shooting down Israeli aircraft.

There are any number of articles in which the Syrians claim to have shot down two Israeli aircraft (type not specified).

Likewise, there are articles claiming the Russians have "fired" at Israeli aircraft.

Other articles claim shoot-downs of Israeli drones.

In a similar vein, there is the claim of killing Israeli (and other) officers in the "command room" via cruise missiles.

The common thread is that all these aircraft shoot-downs have been denied by Israel, and there has been total radio silence regarding any further news on the "command room" and its supposedly erstwhile commanders.

To cite the main text above, how do you know that?

Ghostship

"WP shows numbers of 250,000 - 300,000."
Is that a reference to The Washington Post? If so, you should get used to the idea that many privately-owned American newspapers are just as propagandist as state-owned RT and Sputnik News.

kooshy

Is all because of learning we are the invincible and exceptional, I also hope we don't have to find out in a hard way.

Serge

Serious reports of as many as 1,000 Ahrar Al Sham fighters defecting to "Jund Al Aqsa" amidst the widespread infighting going on over past 48 hrs. No commentator I've read appears quite what to make of this group, given its relative obscurity up until the past few months when it suddenly rose to the forefront amongst the rebels. IMO they are and have been an IS front, full penetrated by IS, similar to how IS took over regions bordering the Golan in 2015 by causing mass defections from other groups including Nusra. The fighting really does appear to be serious, the collapse of Ahrar al sham-SAA lines near hama due to presumed calling back of troops to core areas by the latter being reminiscent of the IS-rebel infighting in '13-14

b

@onikok

- wikipedia is a worse source than the UN.

The UN (Egeland & Co)and other once said "nearly 100,000" people were besieged in Darayya. That number slowly went down to 8,000 civilians. When the "rebels gave up there about 1,000 of those and some 1,500 civilians coming out - the immediate families of the fighters. That was all that was there.

Aleppo will be similar. No current video from east-Aleppo shows a crowd of more than two dozen (mostly jihadis in civil cloth) in "demonstrations". The streets are empty.

As for war mongering - Clapper and Obama accused Russia of being "behind" the hack on the DNC based on "sensitivity and scope" of the hack. But sensitivity and scope are more a factor of patience, luck and the size of the hacked database. You try ten-twenty targets and find one open to the usual tools and there you go. Could have been dozens of other probably more worthwhile.

Then we come to attribution which is nearly impossible unless you control the whole internet. Any trace you find mind have been left with the purpose of deceiving. There is no way to be sure unless one gets a plausible, hard confession from the culprit.

jld

re the movies, "Threads" which is the British "day after" has been scrubbed from Youtube where there was several full copies a few years ago but is still on Vimeo https://vimeo.com/18781528 and Dailymotion (though in a shortened version there).

jld

Does this mean that cataclysm is better than mutiny?

jld

What's "WP" ?

trinlae

Yes, the "you broke it, you own it" regime change foreign policy model isn't turning out to be the big money-maker once envisioned.

trinlae

6 ft under, along with Richard Feynman himself, but it almost sounds poignantly quaint compared to the complex culling Fukushima promises.

Old Microbiologist

Being particularly cynical, I have been convinced Trump is a "false" candidate and is part of an elaborate Machiavellian plan for HRC to basically run unopposed. I fully expect at least one and perhaps more, October surprises. HIs behavior at the debate and failure to pounce on the low hanging fruit bears that out. My (albeit cynical) bet is Trump withdraws the last week before the election. He has nothing to lose by doing that. He is another egomaniacal miscreant and lives by his own rules (something he shares with Washington plutocrats). Alternatively, we start a hot war with Russia (same thing happens if Trump withdraws). Increased rhetoric about election and hacking and basically a throw in either way. The upshot is HRC was chosen back in 2008 to step back and let BHO be President so as to not let the US economic catastrophe devolve into a race war. The only thing I can see against this concept is most people in Washington just aren't very smart, are particularly nasty, and incapable of any positive ethics. To pull this off requires a lot of smart yet nasty people playing nice together. We have no precedent for that.

I cannot believe these idiots actually think Russia will back down. I guess no one in ashington has read history. Being married to a Russian gives me a very close look into the Russian character (plus extended family and a vast array of Russian friends) and I can say they never ever back down nor do they apologize. They also never make empty threats and in fact only act as planned. They will negotiate to the end but will have things in motion for the Plan B and they always expect the worst. I think Murphy must have been a Russian because they operate with that in mind for everything. Every Russian I have met is disgusted with the American attitude of aggression and exceptionalism having never fought a war on home soil. Those memories are still fresh in Russian minds. Of course it goes far beyond that but basically we are toast if we think we can beat them.

LeaNder

dc, read Trump's foreign policy speech carefully, and then reflect on how much you emphasize (hope for change?) some things while ignoring others.

I am disappointed by the Obama administration's campaign memes versus the unfolding reality, but I surely don't believe that Obama created ISIS, while I am at least somewhat willing to consider that he was partly driven by events.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/28/us/politics/transcript-trump-foreign-policy.html?_r=0

Our nuclear weapons arsenal, our ultimate deterrent, has been allowed to atrophy and is desperately in need of modernization and renewal. And it has to happen immediately.

It's already happening, isn't it?

**********
What I would like to understand a lot better then I do is the larger genesis, ideally including gray area activities, plus drives in the US and Europe that led up to the confrontation in the Ukraine.

Other programs in the ME? Their history?

LeaNder

record almost never touches US soil.

I may not understand.

But I am not sure if it never impacts or touches US soil. Maybe not as warfare on US ground, but surely, ok vaguely, in other shapes and forms.

LeaNder

OIFVet, I didn't find any proof on the other side either. But, does Israel belong to the 60+ US led coalition? Could they confirm it, if they aren't involved officially?

There are no doubt a certain amount of rumors about Israeli involvement in what I would define as gray areas. Definitively humanitarian support for rebels and suggested military support for rebels on the other side of the Golan Heights too.

David Habakkuk

OIFVet, BraveNewWorld, OutrageBeyond,

The Russians are trying to finesse imperatives which are inherently in tension, and very acutely so.

They know quite well that they are dealing with people who think that, if confronted, Russia will back down.

Precisely the ‘insane’ mentality which makes so many in Washington believe that, however, means that they are particularly ill-equipped for the – commonly extraordinarily difficult – task of containing an escalatory dynamic once unleashed.

So it could make good sense for the Russians to take the kind of – unexpected – action that sends a signal that they are not going to back down, while not making it explicit that they are doing anything of the kind.

A cruise missile strike on an operations room near Aleppo, killing Israeli, US, Turkish, Saudi, Qatari and British officers, which was leaked out through less than fully authoritative media outlets, might fit the bill.

So also might the shooting down of two Israeli planes, which would be attributed to the Syrians, but with it being quite evident to those to whom the message was sent who was actually responsible.

In both cases, the possible escalatory effect, although real, is muted, because – for different reasons in the two cases – people in Israel and the West cannot afford to be candid about what has happened.

With Israel, there could be ‘carrots’, as well as ‘sticks’. There is an obvious difference of interest between Iran and Russia, in relation to Hizbullah.

The organisation’s missile capabilities are a key to Tehran’s ‘deterrent’, while Moscow, while needing its ground troops in Syria, has good reason to want to keep relations between it and Israel on a reasonably even keel.

This is not to say that the reports we are dealing with are reliable – only that the measures it has been suggested have been taken would appear to make rather good sense, from a Russian point of view.

Harry

Yeah, but my kids are very young.

I need to move somewhere remote.

Sans racines

Seems like a good time for Americans to start writing to their senators...

Nuff Sed

It seems to me that this is indeed a world war, and that furthermore, neither side can afford to lose. Therefore, my prediction is that Uncle $cam will not allow the Axis of Resistance to wrap things up by mid-January, after which they will escalate, using nuclear weapons if necessary. Reason being, if they lose Syria, they will lose Iraq next, and Yemen, and then the position of Turkey, Yehudi Arabia and Yahudistan become precarious at best.

Chris Chuba

I 100% agree that this is why we are so quick to accept the meme that Russia is our eternal enemy.

There is also a perception that we can easily defeat Russia in a conventional war anywhere that is not inside of Russia itself. This belief is also established from the Cold War because of the meme, 'Russian equipment is junk'. I read articles linked through 'real clear politics' people who are billed as security experts talk as if we can quickly establish air supremacy in Syria. If they urge caution at all it is only because of the aftermath and repercussions, not because they doubt our ability to easily accomplish it. I have my doubts that Tomahawk missiles traveling at 550mph are an unstoppable weapon against the S3/400's but what do I know.

The Col mentioned the lack of a draft making it easier to support war. That makes sense to me. A history of easy victories with other people doing the fighting is bound to create complacency. I'd also throw in a press corp that is now an extension of the State Dept instead of being govt skeptics is still trusted when reporting on national security; we are all faux patriots now.

OIFVet

I can see how shooting down an Israeli warplane can be given plausible deniability by attributing it to Syria, but I also think that if such event took place it would have been too much of a propaganda coup to not have pictures of the wreckage plastered all over the media.

In the case of the supposed cruise missile strike against the ops center, I simply can't see it as being remotely likely. First, the Russians could not use Syrians as cover because the latter don't have cruise missiles. Second, targeting US personnel is high risk, low reward endeavour. Third, how do the US and other Western powers hide the supposed casualties?

I think that it is counterproductive to attribute such actions to Russia without real proof. It makes them look omnipotent, which they aren't. R+6 have the upper hand and are about to hand the Borg a good thrashing. That is satisfying to me, without the added rumours about direct strikes against Israeli and Western assets. Indeed, I find it best that such direct confrontations are avoided by both sides, in the name of humanity.

Former 11B

I was in the 3rd AD in Erlangan. Our forward deployed positions were in the Fulda gap. I remember our First Sergeants little pep talk when I went there for the first time.
"People, this is where you will die. There will Hundreds of commies coming over those hills for every one of you and your deaths will be the excuse to nuke the whole mess. The Army does require you to kill at least 10 of the enemy before you die."
Good times.

doug

Well, at least we have a choice which is rare enough. We get to pick between an unvarnished globalist with militaristic R2P tendencies and egotistical, piggish man that believes he can sell ice to Inuits and make a profit.

Interesting look at the democracy:
https://www.amazon.com/Against-Democracy-Jason-Brennan/dp/0691162603/ref=sr_1_5?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1475943252&sr=1-5&keywords=democracy

I'm highly skeptical of his proposed solutions though.

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