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08 October 2016

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Fred

Col.,

It seems "P***ygate" has served as a giant distraction from the failure of American foreign policy that is moving us ever close to a war in the wrong place with the wrong enemy. What is the probability that some poly-sci grad in the administration is thinking provoking the Russians into shooting down a US aircraft would provide the October surprise that HRC needs to win the election?

charly

Day 1 is not important. It is Day 10 that is important. Iraq had no resupply so they would be f*ck however good their AA was. Russians will just bring in some more AA (if necessary on Chinese ships)

jld

"I say what I believe to be true."

That's called opinion.
Not showing you brightest side, but you have no shame, right?

MRW

Mike, But I do not believe they will try to use those S400's against US air. They know their limitations.

Ha. You’ve got that backward. I was at a private investors’ meeting on 57 St in Manhattan in the late 90s (1997?). SecDef William Cohen was speaking. He admitted the US military didn’t have anything to counter Russia’s latest missiles--forgot their names, not willing to do the minimum work to get them right now. Said they could obliterate our aircraft carriers--as in vaporize--and that an admiral would have five seconds to react before he could detect them or he could see them coming. [working from memory here]

IIRC, he said that the Russian scientists offered to share this tech with us when the country broke up if we helped them relocate to the US, and we had sneered at them (just as you’re doing now) thinking they made junk. After 1995, he said, after we destroyed the country with our democratization attempts, the Clinton economists, and the suicides we caused, the Russians clamped down and now refuse to share or sell their armament to anyone who make them available to Americans. And it’s now policy that they will never sell their latest version outside the country. If you recall, last May 9th, Russia put on a display of their latest stuff in Red Square.

MRW

Mike, the difference between you and a Russian is that they went through WWII on their soil. They know war. They know the immense loss of life, the devastating carnage, and the deep pain of having to rebuild everything because everything was lost including a quarter of their population. May 9th is a sacred day to all Russians when millions join arms and walk the streets carrying photos of the family members they lost. Last May there was a photo of Putin in the throngs arm in arm with fellow citizens without a visible security detail carrying his father’s photo in a frame. The day was sombre; it is for all Russians.

An ocean of blood ran over Russia during WWII. It was Russia that defeated Hitler. It was Russia that pushed back the Nazi army from Stalingrad to Berlin. Not us. Our parents (or grandparents) were here doing the Lindy Hop until we went all in on D-Day in 1944.

The last thing that Russia wants is another war. And you’re whistling past the snake pit if you think that Russia will allow anyone or any country to expose them to that threat again. It’s visceral with Russians. And every Russian will back Putin and go down dying before they allow it. Of that you can be 1000% sure.

It is we who have the limitations. The limitation of hubris, of historical knowledge fed by unrealistic Hollywood fairy tales, of intoxication with jingoistic platitudes that describe neither now nor the danger of playing with fire. Or other people’s lives.

Bill Herschel

"I think that the U.S. believe we can master even the best of Russian air defenses based on the defense and foreign policy articles that I've read."

Please link to these articles.

It would be interesting, by the way, to know when the German people became convinced that the war was lost. The propaganda offensive is probably always the last one to stall.

Imagine

Graham & McCain have mastered the hypnotic whine, and are using it to beat up at least JCoS Dunford and Carter. "Everybody knows" we are going to war against the Russians, *just like against Iraq*. How dare Obama stand in the way. When the Senate Foreign Affairs committee comes in and tells him he must to DO something, it takes guts to stand up to the Senate. And that's only the stuff I know about.

ToivoS

Tallinn and Riga are of extreme strategic import to Russia should they house NATO forces. Track the advance of the German Northern front on its way to Leningrad in 1941. I think you mean that Tallinn and Riga are of no economic import to Russia.

Babak Makkinejad

What I was trying to point out that Russian state can induce state fracture in the 3 Baltic states at little or no cost to herself and have NATO states unable to do anything about it.

That they have not done so does not mean that they cannot.

It was a fool's game to make NATO a neighbor of Russia, it remains so today - in my opinion.

Imagine

WH horde 3,000 @ $7K/yr fulltime =>$21M, but I guess $1K@ parttime, so most likely $3M/yr. Call it $10M. An outstanding graphic designer is $120/yr ft, three if exorbitant. Webslinger $80K ft, three if exorbitant. Film editor + Mac, $50K. Ft twitter gal, $50K. Blogger, $50K. Jr. producer/team leader, $120K. $1M/yr easily covers all actual production costs. PR idea marketing guys are tricky, they are like lawyers, they charge whatever they think they can get away with: probably $10K/wk for a team of 1-3 if competitive, 3x that if sole-source, so easily $1.6M/yr for the idea guys w/o breaking a sweat. $30 helmets for 3K, $90K. $30 branded safety vests, another $90K. Roadies are using their own hi-def iPhones for filming, no equipment costs. Trucks have been pirated from actual civil-defense firestations ISIS has killed.

Phone bills @$1K/yr x 3K, $3M/yr for WH phones, could trace that way. 30 centurions @ +$10K/yr => $300K; 300 lieutenants @ +$5K/yr => $1.5M. WH will donate/steal their own gas & food, otherwise more millions.

I come up with $11M to $29M actual expenses/year, depending. The operation would want a 3-yr holdback buffer in case funding's unexpectedly cut. This still leaves room for a palace.

Imagine

Graham and McCain will fight to the last Syrian to make Russia come to heel, and the thought that Russia might bomb the American homeland is inconceivable. Obama doesn't want a war with Russia, but has to meet them in the middle, so currently offers MANPADs (which will end up shooting down French & Israeli planes); the Senators will keep pressing and pressing, still want their no-fly zone, and if not Obama, Hillary will give it to them. Americans were stupid enough to pull Iraq and Libya; I believe the Borg is stupid enough to do Syria/Russia.

mike allen

MRW -

I am well aware of the Russian sacrifice and bloodshed in their 'Velíkaya Otéchestvennaya Voyná'. God help us that it may never happen again to them or to any country.

BTW, I do agree with you about Hollywood fairy tales.

But you need to read real history, not Hollywood's version and not Stalin's. We were not doing the Lindy Hop. We were providing the Soviets with tens of thousands of tanks, aircraft, artillery, hundreds of thousands of trucks, wheat, locomotives and other war materials. Soviet pilots picked up American fighter aircraft from factories we established in Iran and flew them direct to Stalingrad to help defeat Hitler's Sixth Army there.

Also consider what happened before Hitler broke the Nazi-Soviet Pact in June 41. While the Brits and French were fighting the Nazis, Stalin sent them millions of tons of grain, soybeans, phosphates, petroleum, manganese, copper, nickel, chrome, platinum, lumber, cotton, and other critical raw materials. This completely negated the British Royal Navy's blockade. This pact went on for two years before crazy Adolph broke it.

Also please consider that from December 41 we were also not doing the Lindy Hop. We were fighting in the Pacific against Imperial Japan. Which by the way the Soviets even though they were our allies, and receiving our war materials, refused to help us with. The kept the faith with the Japanese Emperor never breaking from their neutrality pact with Japan (after their brief border conflicts in Mongolia in 39) up until 1945 when Japan was already defeated.

That said I have no animus against the Russian people. May they live in peace and prosperity as I hope we will. My father shed a lot of blood when he was horrifically wounded at the Rapido River in Italy. He spent more that a two years in Army hospitals. He hated the thought of another world war. So do I.

apol

South Front reasons that Russian personel were killed in the 'mistaken' attack on Syrian troops in Derez Azor.
Thus the harsh tone adopted by Mowcow since.
" Konashenkov pointed to the airstrikes against Syrian government forces in Der ez-Zor as one of the primary motivating factors in importing the potent weapon systems."
Putin's a street fighter with a tough nation behind him.
And Rash Carter and his Kazarian relatives and his nerdy demeanor?
Would they inspire you to follow him into a fight?

Qoppa

@mike allen

"Static front", - at this very hill. That is what the military maps show. Of course I don´t know how reliable they are.

"More deadly" - another US airstrike with 4 planes leaving 60+ real IS fighters dead? Not that I know of. Certainly not many.

"Sudden love for Assad?" - well, that was sarcastic. Had they wanted to strike IS at Deir al-Zor town, they would have helped the SAA. This is what the US has avoided doing even when it would have been possible. Remember Palmyra?


Yeah, the US army, of course. The political motive for busting the deal with Russia was pretty explicit.
On Tuesday at the Pentagon, officials would not even agree that if a cessation of violence in Syria held for seven days — the initial part of the deal — the Defense Department would put in place its part of the agreement on the eighth day: an extraordinary collaboration between the United States and Russia that calls for the American military to share information with Moscow on Islamic State targets in Syria.

“I’m not saying yes or no,” Lt. Gen. Jeffrey L. Harrigian, commander of the United States Air Forces Central Command, told reporters on a video conference call. “It would be premature to say that we’re going to jump right into it.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/14/world/middleeast/syria-john-kerry.html

What is this if not the DoD announcing ... resistence? rebellion? insubordination?

This is what Pat Lang was referring to above, "the thought that SECDEF may be evading the CinC's control. pl"

Imagine

The sleepwalking mind can only follow chains of events that are 2 or 3 long.

Most of the country, except for the military planners, has been hypnotized by this time. It's going to come down to Pres. Obama.

BraveNewWorld

The US has only 2 supposedly stealth aircraft the F-35 which doesn't really exist and the F-22 that the US would never risk being shot down in Syria. If a F-22 was shot down the F-35 program would be dead instantly. Not to mention there are to few of them and they are way to expensive. Finally if a F-22 crash landed in Syria it would be loaded on a truck headed for Moscow or Beijing before you could say "oh sh..!"

If the US was to attack it would be missiles period and they really don't have any where they could fire them from other than the Mediterranean or long range bombers from over the Mediterranean and they would have a hard time getting ashore with all the Russian ships and then land based defences. The follow on would be that there would be no AWACS or tankers any where near the Syrian border.

You think the US has issues with losing face because Obama didn't attack the Syrian government. Wait to see to see the fallout if they attack and hit nothing.

mike allen

MRW -

You mistake me. I am not sneering at them. I have said before I hope they are never used and we never have to go against them. I am not a champion of war.

I was simply stating capabilities. There is too much "chiken-little-the-sky-is-falling" talk about the S-400. Probably started by defense contractors looking to make a buck on it.

I understand that stealth technology is not invisible to low-frequency search and acquisition radars. They can certainly see and track most of our stealth aircraft, perhaps even the F-22. But they are forced by physics to use much higher frequencies for fire control radars. Except at extremely close range, they cannot lock on to well designed low observable aircraft.

They do have the capability of using surprise to down several planes. But after their first shots that game would be over. The S400 is overrated, great against ballistic missiles, bombers, AWACS, reconnaissance and tanker aircraft. But at extended range can they match the speed and turning capability of modern fighters? My opinion is no. Plus they are way outranged by modern standoff weapons like JASSM. Even JSOW or older HARM missiles with a shorter range could get to them.

Again, I pray we never have to find out.

mike allen

jld -

Sorry if my opinion offends you. It is just as valid as your opinion.

Ishmael Zechariah

Mike Allen,
You state: "static front"? No way. Daesh (IS) has been trading ground with the SAA there for quite awhile. Yes, Assad's forces hold the airfield and a portion of the city, nothing much else. Daesh rules all else around there."
Your conjectures are based on faulty information. In this theater the SAA has been holding this particular area--and nothing else, for quite a while They were just able to their own and are waiting for reinforcements. To claim that there were significant shifts in the demarcation lines before the US attack, particularly in the Tharda Mountain area, is incorrect. Please check the SouthFront maps for the past several months.

BTW, when I read your posts I think of a "Borg Hasbara Operative" engaged in agitprop. Perhaps you are not, but you certainly sound like one to me.
Ishmael Zechariah

J

Russian MoD pondering re-launch of military bases in Cuba and Vietnam – Deputy Defense Minister

https://www.rt.com/news/361886-russia-bases-cuba-vietnam/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

Tidewater

Tidewater says,

"...in which Thatcher's gamble paid off, partly because of the snobberies of Argentinian fighter pilots."

That's an interesting comment. Could you please elaborate on it a bit? You mean they didn't like hours and hours of patient, long-range reconnaisance out over the Atlantic in a learjet or C-130 looking for the sealines the British were using to approach the Falklands? Not sexy enough?

Or did it have something to do with the Pucaras? Which reminds me of something I have not seen much written about. Wasn't the attack the Pucaras made, in order to set up the end run of the Exocet-armed Mirages --perhaps the attack that sank the Atlantic Conveyor (the name has been resurrected, I believe), -- one of the most stunning sacrifices made by an air force in modern history? Do you have some inside scoop on that? Or have I got it wrong?

Old Microbiologist

MRW, thanks, I couldn't have said it any better.

mike allen

Chris Chuba - from 12:50 today: "Now who would favor such a lunatic decision?"

Not me for sure. And I don't believe anyone in National Security Council is considering that either.

There are some of McCain/Graham neocons who might favot that idea and there may well be some Pentagon lower level hotshots that float ideas like that. Hopefully someone slapped them down.

Old Microbiologist

In Russian news you can find a bit more details. What they said is that Russians are embedded with all Syrian Army forces thus any attack would by extension be against Russian military and would be shot down. Of note all offensive US flights over Syria have been halted since that announcement.

aleksandar

Hum, "our stealth aircraft " Are they stealth enough ? I bet no.
It is said that the russians have already 16 ships between syria and the US fleet. A huge detection capabality.

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