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08 October 2016

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mike allen

Anna -

In regards to your earlier question. You were wondering if I was implying that the Russians were supplying Igla MANPADS to jihadis in Syria.

No, I was not implying anything like that. That would be a shortsighted thing to do, and I do not believe they are stupid, probably a lot smarter than we are based on what is going on now in Syria.

I did say that PERHAPS they had provided them to the PKK in retaliation for the Turkish shootdown of a Russian Sukhoi 24. That was pure speculation on my part based on the recent reported PKK shootdown of a Turkish F-16. I meant no offense. Those Iglas could just as easily have come from Iran who is no friend of Turkey, or elsewhere?

mike allen

Fred -

It won't come from a poly-sci-grad Hillary supporter in October.

It will be McCain or Graham or their NeoCon friends after the election... They don't want to give Hillary and edge now.

VietnamVet

Colonel,

I agree with Richardstevenhack’s comment above. The White House has backed down. There will be no cruise missile attack this year on Syrian Arab Army positions. Donald Trump’s “Kitty-gate” couldn’t have come at a better time to hide the third humiliation of Barrack Obama by Vladimir Putin in Syria. Let’s not be coy. There are some very powerful people who are pissed off and will do all they can to destabilize the Kremlin. Cold War 2.0 will get hotter.

Now that the total scorn of globalists running the West for the people and the rule of law is obvious, combined with the danger of nuclear war, the influx of refugees caused by the West's support of Jihadists and climate change; our world is turning upside down. If mankind survives, it will because the western citizens throw out the ruling globalist clique.

Cee

Fred,

Yes. They aren't changing the colors of our FA 18's to match those of the Russians for no reason.
Plus, read the Pied Piper Clinton plot on Wikileaks to elevate Trump to later knock him down.

Lemur

There's simply not enough Russian assets in Syria to deal with a massed attack. It's possible the F-22 Raptor has the wood on the S-400. By contrast, Russian systems would pose a real threat to the F-35.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVj8T-skY6g

Thus, US ability to gain air superiority against a near peer adversary depends on just 120 odd Raptors. No other NATO country will possess this capability.

mike allen

David Habbakkuk -

I've read Waugh's 'Scoop' and think you are right re "understanding modern politics". Will have to find copies of 'Black Mischief' and 'Decline and Fall'. In the future I would like to hear more about your "mixed feelings" on Waugh if you have the inclination?

And I got lost in the latter part of your comment. By 'Thatcherites' do you mean Theresa May, Lidington and others in the majority that have a deep fear of Germany and Russia. Or is it a 'group within'? {lease forgive my ignorance of your fair country.

PeteM

Assad has shown repeatedly that he is not accepting the 'junior partner' position in relation to Putin in this conflict. In both instances when the US and Russia reached a cease fire agreement he immediately appeared on local media making the insane claim that he was going to reconquer the whole of Syria. This fantasy would only be possible with the full assistance of the Russian military and that is the tail trying to wag the dog. I'm certain that Putin and his advisors are troubled by these outbursts as much as they should be by Assad's continued use of chemicals as weapons after they thought they had removed that temptation from his grasp.

I'm not a supporter of the fact that the Hegemon is creating this new reality but it can't be ignored and I am just commenting on what I see coming and what I try to understand about why its proponents think they can prevail.

The Twisted Genius

Cee,

Those FA-18s in Russian camoflage are part of adversary training at MCAS Beufort. They've done it there for at least the last two years. The AF Aggressor Squadron has done that for decades. Nothing sinister here.

mike allen

Old Microbiologist -

When was that announcement made? The coalition is reporting 13 strikes on ISIL in Syria on 8 October, and I expect they will soon release the 9 October strikes. Some of those may have been by rocket artillery, but not all, certainly not the strikes on Raqqa, Mar'a, and Deir ez-Zor.

http://www.inherentresolve.mil/Portals/1/Documents/Strike%20Releases/2016/10October/20161009%20Strike%20Release%20Final.pdf?ver=2016-10-09-105842-050

Ken Roberts

This statement "[Russia] generally looking as inpredictable as possible..." is a topic I've been wondering about. It seems to me that statements coming from Russian govt sources have been quite clear, both on the surface and in terms of allusions to non-public aspects. That is, exceptionally predictable, after the first Syrian intervention startup one-year ago.

Is that the case, or am I missing observing some aspect of unpredictability? Is it a good strategy to be so predictable? Not, I imagine, in terms of defining option-space with respect to US diplomacy/actions. But perhaps there is benefit in wider opinion, eg other countries who are likely to desire a predictable partner?

Suppose Russian desire is to reduce chaotic nature of statements and actions from US? What will elicit that?

Peter AU

Regarding S-400 vs F-22 a submission to the Australian government by Lt.Col Anker Sorensen (Rtd) on the purchase of the F-35 is well worth a read. With two systems 70 to 80 km? apart now operationg in Syria, one will always get a side veiw of a stealth aircraft so visability will depend on side veiw radar cross section of the F-22.
Submission 35 (pdf) at this site http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Foreign_Affairs_Defence_and_Trade/Joint_fighter/Submissions
....We also simulated Joint Strike Fighter against Russian fighter aircraft where we flew two against two.
In the forenoon I and the Danish test pilot was flying Joint Strike Fighters against two Russian fighters. In the afternoon we swapped, so we flew Russian fighter aircraft against the Joint Strike Fighter.
In the afternoon the first thing the test pilot and I noticed was that the Russian fighters was not loaded with the best air-to-air missiles as the Russians have in real life. We therefore asked about getting some better.
It was denied us. We two pilots complained but it was not changed.
My test pilot and I decided in our simulated Russian combat aircraft to fly “line abreast”, but with 25 nautical miles distance. Then at least one of us could with radar look into the side of the Joint Strike Fighter
and thus view it at long distance. The one who “saw” the Joint Strike Fighter could then link the radar image to the other. Then missiles could be fired at long distance at the Joint Strike Fighter.
It was also denied us, although we protested this incomprehensible disposition....

F-35

There is a lot of US personnel deployed in warzones around the world, using a lot of aircraft. I am sure Russians have already made it abundantly clear to Obama that US enemies may all of a sudden find themselves in possession of brand-new, Russian made MANPADS...You wouldn't want that, Barak, now, would you?

mike allen

Sorry to disappoint you, I have no Khazarian mafia in my family. Just an old armchair strategerista, or wannabee more likely.

But you are right about agitprop, there is plenty of it going on around here. Most from Assad and his phony baloney "proof" that it was a deliberate US strike on SAA troops. He knows he cannot release that proof as it will be shown to be garbage. You should also check the Southfront maps around Deir az Zor. You will finf they do not show SAA gains and losses on the perimeter.

turcopolier

mike allen

Waugh is good whether David H. likes him or not. You should read "Black Mischief" because it is so amusing but you probably won't believe it because you probably don't have enough experience in the 3rd world. What you should read most is the "Sword of Honor" trilogy about how leftists in London determined the outcome of the resistance struggle in Yugoslavia. pl

mike allen

PeteM -

Be careful Pete. I happen to agree with you. But talking about Assad's use of chemical weapons is thought of as heresy by some commenters here. Be prepared to be flame warred. They will accuse you of being a warmonger, or a dupe, or an Israeli agitator.

mike allen

Thanks Colonel -

I can't find "Black Mischief" online at my local library, but did put a hold on "Sword of Honor". I'll look for "Black Mischief" next time I hit a local bookstore. I'm not fond of Amazon.

Ishmael Zechariah

Mike Allen,
"You should also check the Southfront maps around Deir az Zor. You will finf they do not show SAA gains and losses on the perimeter."
Correct. This is why the "accidental" bombing of the SAA positions, which had been static for more than three months, does not really pass the smell test. Interesting gambit, but it seems to have failed.

BTW you must know that the SAA does not have real SIGINT capability against US. Claiming that President Assad "cannot release that proof as it will be shown to be garbage" is too clever by half, and worthy of a well-trained Borg Hasbarist.

Anyway, enjoy the coming fight. In all probability my country, Turkey, and my city, Adana, will take some of the first hits-Incirlik is only 18 km away. A pity if that comes to pass. Our old bridge over Seyhan was built by Romans under Hadrian and has lasted close to two millennia. It deserves better than being sacrificed for Borgist pipe dreams.
Ishmael Zechariah

Chris Chuba

"Plus they [the S400] are way outranged by modern standoff weapons like JASSM. Even JSOW or older HARM missiles with a shorter range could get to them. - Mike Allen"

U.S. Intent
Mike Allen, those of us pondering the possibility of a U.S. attack on Syria that will involve Russia aren't just engaging in fanciful thoughts. You are aware of these statements recently published statements in the press, I hope.

"The CIA and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, represented in the Deputies Committee meeting by Vice Chairman Gen. Paul Selva, expressed support for such “kinetic” options, the official said. That marked an increase of support for striking Assad compared with the last time such options were considered.
...
The options under consideration, which remain classified, include bombing Syrian air force runways using cruise missiles and other long-range weapons fired from coalition planes and ships, an administration official who is part of the discussions told me."

They even use the same term 'standoff weapons' that you mention.

S400 vs JASSM
You are making an interesting point and if we did want to test the waters, a stealthy air launched cruise missile would be a better option than using old Tomahawk missiles as I stated earlier. You are obviously more knowledgable than I am, but I bet the Russian air defenses can eat the HARM missiles for breakfast. The Russians have watched us use HARM missiles to destroy air defense systems for decades and I can't believe they would neglect this in their development. I watched a demo of their Pantsir s2 intercept short range missiles and it was very impressive. The S400 defense system would be layered with such systems.

Reality vs Belief
If we believe that we can take out Russian air defenses in Syria we will be tempted to do so. The actual reality of the situation is less important.

Jay

How many American body bags?

Fred

Mike,

Given that I lugged a replica of one of those things around Michigan during the campaign he managed to quite skillfully lose I gave myself artistic license. If you are referring to JEB well he managed to sink his own campaign but without much skill, other than wasting tens of millions in donations.

mike allen

Colonel -

Although now after looking it up I see that years ago I did read one book of Waugh's trilogy. The one on action in Crete, "Officers and Gentlemen". I've reserved the other two.

Fred

Mike,

It certainly won't be a supporter, it will be long time staff members who are just as neocon in foreign policy as she or the two senators you name. I disagree on the timing.

mike allen

Peter AU -

I have no doubt about what you say. Those who conduct testing of military systems do like them to be choreographed and not spontaneous. That is a mistake in my opinion.

But it does not change my mind on the susceptibilities of SAM's in general and the S400 in particular. They are not all-powerful.

J

Don't forget the Russian asymmetrical warfare response that Putin has warned NATO and D.C. about. OSD Carter seems to have no clue regarding what an asymmetrical warfare response is.

Why o why do we have so many lunatics (OSD Carter, Hillary, NATO Sec, etc..) today running the Western asylum?

PeteM

I see these attacks initially as decapitation strikes to separate the forces in the field from C&C so there may be little need to actually strike the field units just take out their command and support. The Russians embedded with these troops will then have no purpose and can leave. Once Syrian air resources are destroyed the field forces are not going to be able to do much except possibly defend themselves.

I don't have a background in this business but it seems that two or three waves of a hundred or so cruise missiles properly targeted should reduce most all of Assad's offensive and defensive capabilities, government control and support systems to rubble. What happens after that will probably be negotiated even if the Russians try to counter some of this attack.

What is surprising to me is that Obama seems to be moving quickly to lead this new reality now that negotiations have failed. I thought he would only prepare the way for HRC to lead this new direct intervention policy.

Apologies to pl I seem to have inadvertently double posted my last comment.

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