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20 September 2016

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georgeg

With all due respect, that's pretty funny.....

turcopolier

TTG

IMO Tunde is thinking abt covert action. not clandestine intel ops. His head is full of Three Days of the Condor. pl

MarkCha40189515

Hard to say; the S-400 system is deployed at Latakia, and the Russians would be foolish if they were not using it for air surveillance, getting as much operational time on the system under real wartime conditions as possible. Deir ez-Zor is well within its coverage, about 500 km. Target detection range is 600 km. They might not have gotten the A-10's, which would be low, but they should have gotten the F-16s.

http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/04/20/russia-s400-air-defense-system-superior-weapon-crucial-deterrence.html

Babak Makkinejad

FYI:

http://www.studiesincomparativereligion.com/public/articles/The_Land_of_the_Sun-by_Ren%C3%A9_Gu%C3%A9non.aspx

Babak Makkinejad

Which central government, in which country, and in which historical period, has treated Kurds well?

In other words, when and where have the Kurds been happy?

Let us start with Anabais...

turcopolier

MarkCha40189515

Get a simpler handle. Well, even if they had the theoretical range the decision would be political in the midst of a COH they were attempting with the US. pl

Babak Makkinejad

Well, US & EU did sign a cease-fire deal with Iran called JCPOA; let us see how that works out over the next 5, 10, and 15 years.


The Beaver

Lindsey Graham: Arming Saudis is necessary to save Jews from a second holocaust.

I guess that little trip to KSA with his buddy must have been worth it
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4621145/sen-graham-uses-holocaust-justify-arms-sales-saudi-arabia

Kooshy

Mike to better understand my comment and yours, I recommend to study complete history ( not just recent, last 200 years) of Iranian plateau' history, geography and demography, once that's done think what other/better alternative the Kurds may have.
There is a very small reblious Kurdish, as well as Baluch and Azeri and Persian groups in and outside of Iran against the curent or and past centeral governments but these groups never were hugely thretaning the centeral systems of Iranian governability. When IS started to move south and west in Iraq the first and only regional goverment Kurds asked and immediately received help was Iran. Same is true when Saddam attacked them back in 93 the only refeuge they found and help they recived was in Iran. Clan leaders like Barezani, or Talibani and other regional minorties know deep and well that they can't have a more stratigicly convenient ally other than Iran and Iran knows that as well, and takes that as an advantage to move her security barrier outside of her international borders to her natural cultural borders.

Kooshy

Yes it is true, frankly and personally I was always very worried about that. After the Lebanon war of 06 I was sure soon the Sunni Shia divide will be used, to neutralize the American European and Israelis multiple failures in ME, naturally that came to be used tacticly to divert the Arab awakening sort of, like changed his the conversation. I was not sure if Iranians and Dr.s of Shia Islam will keep a sober head to handle this and avoid a religious conflict. They did, even in religiously divided waring Syria, they were able to continue supporting Assad and avoid making this a sectorial war. IMO it was smart to get the Russians involved that helped to put to switch from religious war which was promoted by Arab Clients to war against extremist terrorists.

Kooshy

Over all I agree with you, that US policies and plans are long term and continues, no matter who is suppose to implement them, but some how I feel you assert that determination and continuity will prevails the failure of plans. That is not historically correct.

mike

Why not even earlier? Perhaps in the time before Cyrus the Great. Or even during his reign, as he was said to have tolerated and upheld the culture, customs and religion of all his conquered lands And many claim he was half Kudish on his mother's side.

Castellio

Yes, it did.

My interpretation is as follows: the deal does block any quick possible break-out nuclear ability by Iran, which is desired by the US, Israel, and SA, and wasn't an Iranian tactical priority anyhow; Netanyahoo didn't really mind the agreement as long as it is simply one part of an on-going effort to diminish Iran's abilities – and I think we will discover quickly enough, if we haven't already, that is the case; Netanyahoo knew he could and would get more money from the US for the deal having been signed, especially if he made a lot of noise; the attention of the US and Israel will now turn, and has turned, to the Iranian ballistic missile program which is a tactical priority for Iran, so expect there to be public connections made between sanctions and ballistic missiles; certain financial aspects of the agreement will simply not be honoured.

The Twisted Genius

pl,

The planning for CIA covert actions, at least the few I knew about, parallels the process for clandestine intel ops. Of course, it cites a finding rather than an intel objective.

Walker

For years one of the most frustrating aspects of US policy in the Middle East has been that the real motives are hard to discern. Why are we so "neurotically focused on removing Assad from power by any means possible"?

A current article in Politico written by Robert F Kennedy Jr puts forth a reason: in 2009 Assad rejected a Qatari proposal for a natural gas pipeline through Syria & Turkey in favor of an Iranian pipeline through Syria & Lebanon. The article states:

In 2009, according to WikiLeaks, soon after Bashar Assad rejected the Qatar pipeline, the CIA began funding opposition groups in Syria.

I don't know if this is the real reason for our attack on Assad, but it's much more plausible to me than "We want them to be free".

As an added benefit, the article reviews the long history of violent American interference in Syria's internal affairs. And we wonder why they hate us.

The Twisted Genius

All,

Some wondered why I would post Paul Monk's comment questioning my characterization of the government as vile and Nazi. I had faith that members of SST would rise to the occasion to point out his ignorance. You didn't disappoint. Drive on.

Babak Makkinejad

That is the question, isn't it: "Who are the Kurds?"

We are speaking of a population that speaks at least 3 mutually un-intelligible languages, have Shia, Sunni, and Yazidi religious orientations, have never been unified in any kingdom during historical times, and elements of their specific culture are indistinguishable from many others on the Iranian plateau.

Note that Armenians were divided into 2 language groups but had had multiple kingdoms during historical times.

BradRHoff

If any of CIA's Doug Laux's claims are true, we were doomed from the beginning in Syria. He claims he spearheaded regime change strategizing for Syria, but knew little about the country.

Here's my article on Laux:

The CIA’s top spy in Syria knew nothing about Syria
http://www.thecanary.co/2016/08/01/cias-top-spy-syria-knew-nothing-syria-video/

Castellio

Kooshy, can you explain what you mean by "some how I feel you assert that determination and continuity will prevails the failure of plans." I am simply not understanding...

turcopolier

TTG

A presidential finding for a covert operation makes the responsibility for the ROE and instructions that of the president alone. pl

kooshy

Castellio, sorry for that, I simply couldn't understand if you mean American policies in ME so far have failed or not . If not, when and where one would know if there goals have been achieved, even if the goal is an indefinite state of chaos, confusion, when and what are the benefits for them. if America is achieving what her planers goals were, then why there global power and rich is on declining trajectory. One can argue since they are losing their hegemony/control they rather break everything before they leave, I don't that's a sound winig policy.

kooshy

Castellio, I came to understand with high confidence that Iranian Nuclear Program was increased, expedited
to make american come to negotiate with Iran sort of opening a dialogue with a strong hand.
IMO Iran never intended to build or field a nuclear weapon, and will not. Iran, do and wanted and now has the Know How, and the industrial base to be a nuclear state. I agree with Babak JCPOA is just a ceasefire, a restrain from direct and not proxy hostilities for what ever the life of it may be. Overall Iranian planners believe by the end of JCPOA US mostly have left the ME and Iran has become stronger in her region based on demography, geography, natural resources and specialty size. They simply believe time is with them, that is Us can't tolerate for ever the ever increasing expenses to overcome Iran's natural advantages in that region.

Chris Chuba

Yeah, I read older specs on the S400, Deir Ezzor is at the outer reach of the S400 but looks to be in range. I don't know if it can cover all altitudes at that range or if it is positioned in Latakia correctly to observe it based on topography considerations, it might be.

I think the key element in the attack was the relative remoteness of the location and the element of surprise. The U.S. aircraft didn't really have to hide because they told the Russians that they would be in Deir Ezzor governorate and being able to cover 10 miles per minute would allow them to go from a non-suspicious location to the kill zone rather quickly.

I am certain that the Russians will be doing their own investigation and compare their results to whatever we release. For example, if they did have RADAR coverage, were our F-16s flying at the expected altitude or were they flying suspiciously low to the point of being missed. Again, that detail might not matter but I think that they will be looking at all of the details they can find.

I just hope the truth comes out, whatever it is.

Babak Makkinejad

The Unity of Ummah was part of the ethos of those revolutionary Muslims who opposed the Shah.

They were also largely ignorant of history, or, perhaps in denial of its relevance to contemporary world.

I suppose if one is a revolutionary, one is not so much interested in the Past but in overcoming it and replacing it with something revolutionary and new.

Castellio

Ah! Thanks for the clarification.

If the goal of the American political class is better housing, food, education and quality of life for its citizens now and in the future, then its policies in the Middle East are entirely counter-productive; they are, in fact, a dismal and expensive failure that have precluded and extensively warped national life and social development.

But if the goals are privatization of oil and gas assets in the Middle East with transaction costs benefiting the private financial/banking system; and protecting an expanding Israeli religious state; and maintaining chaos, incoherence, and military weakness among those it considers its civilizational enemies, then the policies can be thought of as "having succeeded", with the future yet to be determined.

So I, personally, think policy in the Middle East an obvious failure, not only for the great pain and dislocation caused people in the Middle East, but for the loss of options for the American people as well, whose futures are being warped and stolen by imperial policies and cultural prejudice.

However, that does not mean I am blind to the fact that certain elites view their policies as successful, and will persevere with them.

Perhaps that helps?

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