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06 September 2016

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Matthew

Col: In light of this new Turkish/FSA zone separating the two Kurdish cantons, won't the FSA use this zone to attack Aleppo from the East?

turcopolier

Matthew

I have been concerned about that for some time. The Russian/Turkish agreement may preclude that. pl

Matthew

Col: In a prior post, you mentioned the different philosophies of the US Army and USMC on fortifications/outposts.

Could you recommend some good reading on that subject? Thank you.

turcopolier

Matthew
The marines here will have something to say but It has always been clear to me that the army is inclined to fight battles in which materiel plays a larger role. IMO USMC has always seemed averse to digging in enough in defensive situations. I don't have any references to give you. pl

Peter

I disagree on a small point about Turkey and their buffer zone. So far the Jarabalus "corridor" along the border with Turkey has served as THE supply line for ISIS. Weapons and supplies flow freely to the south, while oil shipments flow to the north. Why are we supposed to believe that because Turkey is moving their border further south to Bab that all of a sudden this will end? I see it as quite the opposite. By moving their border further south to Bab, Turkey is actually ensuring that ISIS will continue to have a dependable supply line from Turkey (this time it will go through the "moderate" zone they are creating). I understand that Erdogan and Putin may have agreed on Aleppo, but I see no indication that Erdogan has completely abandoned ISIS. I hope I'm wrong

Don Hank

My hat is off to you, Col. Thanks very much! Now the only thing that could go wrong with your expectations is Erdogan. He holds a lot of cards.

turcopolier

Don Hank

A lot of cards? Yes, but excessive cleverness and trickery could end up with them amounting to a dead man's hand. pl

Babak Makkinejad

A US-Iran strategic settlement as well as US-Russia strategic settlement will pulverize many of those cards.

Willy B

I saw that picture at the time. I can't say for certain that it was taken in Aleppo, but I am certain it was for show because, as someone else points out, here, you can't feed 200,000 people (if there really are that many people in east Aleppo) with a few pickup truck loads of melons and bananas.

Willy B

Perhaps, but that's not way Obama was humiliated in China. He was humiliated in China because he has nothing to offer the rest of the world other than geopolitical confrontation and trade war. With the exception of certain interests in Europe, nobody wants that stuff anymore. What they want is the Silk Road to the future and its the Chinese who are offering that.

Thomas

"... I see no indication that Erdogan has completely abandoned ISIS."

He did the day three Islamic Staters blew themselves up in Ataturk Airport. Any jihadi group wanting Turkish assistance will have to receive the Brotherhood seal of approval and with it follow the instructions of Big Brother Tayyip, which is this war is coming to a close.

Thomas

"Yes, but excessive cleverness and trickery could end up with them amounting to a dead man's hand."

Considering the Sultan's neck was heading down the line to the spinal cranial slicer I would not see him trying anything with players that matter now that he has been given a reprieve. A turn against the Wahhabis so he can solidify the Brotherhood as the legitimate leaders of Sunni Islam would be the one card to play.

It was interesting watching Erdogan doing an interview for CCTV at the G-20 because he was very relaxed and carefree unlike the interview he gave them the previous year when he was somber and intensely focused. A little humility by apologizing to Russia over the SU-24 shootdown gained him so much that in the future he will want to maintain the straight and narrow path because he won't be given another chance if he does deviate.

Castellio

Do you see either of those strategic settlements happening?

turcopolier

JLD

"small fringe populations like SST" If you wish to denigrate this forum you don't belong here. pl

elliot cohen

With respect, the U.S. doesn't really have a dog in this fight and, therefore, how can we said to have sustained a defeat? We do have a commitment to the Kurds and given the history with this embattled people, it will be interesting to see how far we will oppose a fellow NATO member to protect them.
However hideous the Assad regime is, nerve gas, barrel bombs, hospitals targeted, etc. does anyone really think a rebel victory wouldn't be worse..Alawite genocide, revenge slaughter, the end of Christianity in Syria.
The rebellion has failed and the sooner the rebels see that, the less blood will be shed.

Babak Makkinejad

Nope...

turcopolier

elliot cohen

Are you professor Elliot Cohen? The US has been a major actor in the fight in Syria from the beginning and actually from before the rebellion began. Today Senator Bob Corker stated that the US has a major responsibility in Syria because our sitting ambassador in Syria BEFORE the rebellion traveled around the country encouraging the revolt. Do you think that the ambassador did this on his own authority? Corker is the Chairman of the senate Foreign Relations committee. pl

elliot cohen

Robert Ford was a loose cannon who went native. He purposefully embarrassed the administration and no longer is with the State Department. Major allies like Saudi Arabia and Turkey had and have far deeper interests in Syria than that of the US.
See Jeffrey Goldberg's interview in the Atlantic a couple of months ago with the President. He refers to the think tanks concerned with the Middle East as "enemy occupied territory"...all in the pay of the Saudis.
The only strategy the rebels have come up with is to have US intervention...and we'd wind up doing it alone.
I'm not Eliot A. Cohen

jld

Sorry, I just meant that SST readership isn't representative of any "majority" of people (alas...), do you think it is and some members could have something like "electoral success"?

Harry

What does R+6 stand for?

Poul

The Ramouseh neighbourhood is recaptured. West Aleppo has once again an open supply line.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/jihadist-defenses-crumble-syrian-army-seizes-key-aleppo-district/

Poul

The fire barrier was not 100%. No doubt for large vehicles but smaller ones could move in and out of Aleppo. Until the government forces regained some high ground around Qabliyah.

The East Aleppo rebels controlled parts of the Ramouseh neighbourhood prior to the offensive and launched a VBIED to spearhead the capture of Ramouseh. My guess would be that they used the same method to cross the road from the As Sukkar neighbourhood as the government forces do around the 1070 neighbourhood. Throwing up large earth walls to create a safe corridor.

Poul

Addentum:

One can actually see the earth walls on Google map between rebel controlled Ramouseh and Ar Sukkari

https://www.google.dk/maps/place/Aleppo,+Syrien/@36.1653327,37.1328109,316m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x152ff813b98135af:0x967e5e5fc542c32a!8m2!3d36.2021047!4d37.1342603

turcopolier

Poul

Ever heard of indirect fire? pl

turcopolier

Harry

Russia, SAA, Iranian forces, Hizbullah, Palestinian militia and the NDF. pl

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