Rebel/US/Turkish failure at Aleppo is absolute.

From the day when the jaws of the Kurdish YPG stronghold at Sheikh Maqsood on the south and the Syrian Army Tiger Forces coming down from the north closed on the Castello Road at the north of the East Aleppo Pocket the lines of circumvalation have been complete and uninterrupted at Aleppo.

Some have have thought that the jihadi/unicorn effort at the SW of Aleppo city had broken the siege, but it did not.  Many do not understand that for a route/road/path to be effective as an interruption of a siege it must be useful as a means of transportation for men/supplies/weapons.  The penetration of the R+6 lines at SW Aleppo City was never anything like that.  The breach was always heavily covered by fire and therefore never useful except for small groups like patrols.  By "fire" I mean tank guns, artillery, recoilless rifles, mortars, machine guns and anything else that can shoot at the gap day and night.  So far as I know, no supplies went into East Aleppo through the breach.  Now, as is shown in the map above, the breach is completely closed and the lines of circumvallation made even stronger.  IMO from a military POV rebel East Aleppo is doomed and the Rebel/US/Turkish attempt to relieve the besieged has utterly failed.   The attempt to lift the siege of east Aleppo was IMO a maximum effort with assets that have largely been lost and which will be hard, if not impossible, to replace any time soon.  the current rebel effort in north Hama Province is a kind of consolation prize for the rebels that will soon be eliminated as a threat. 

John Kerry threatened "new measures" after 1 September while at the same time luring the Russians into accepting a "humanitarian" ceasefire.   This temporary cessation of hostilities was IMO clearly a ruse de guerre which enabled the pro-rebel sponsoring powers to reinforce massively a rebel force designed to permanently break the government's siege of East Aleppo.  It was expected that victory at Aleppo would be provided by Erdogan's enabling actions, but that effort failed and now Obama/Kerry are faced with a need to confront reality in Syria.

IMO Turkey has made a bargain with Russia and Iran in which support for all the rebels (both jihadi and FSA unicorns) who seek the destruction of the Syrian government will largely cease while the Turks are free to destroy Kurdish ambitions east of Aleppo City.  The progress of the Russo-Turkish relationship is easily seen in Erdogan's surly nastiness as displayed toward Amtrak Joe Biden in Ankara and toward Obama in China. 

With regard to IS, the US/Russian agreement will enable a campaign of extermination against them in eastern Syria and northern Iraq.  The Turks will participate in that because Erdogan has come to see them as rivals in Islamism and a threat.

IMO, as a result of these basic changes in circumstances the Obamanites are in search of a face-saving compromise with the Russians over an end to the war in Syria.  IMO this is reflected in the the soothing, friendly sounds from both Russia and the United States over the possibility of a ceasefire.  Obama does not want to leave the mess in Syria as a stain on his legacy.  Since belligerence has failed, he now looks for a prestige restoring alternative.

Can a thinly veiled defeat be disguised as a wonderfully skilled diplomatic success?  Yes.  The public outcome will promise things like; a new constitution, eventual exile for Bashar Assad, UN supervision of interim elections, etc., etc., ad nauseam.

The underlying truth will be that Syria will remain a multi-confessional state with Bashar Assad as president for a long time.  If HC becomes president she will have to face the prospect of a new, and bigger war if she wishes to reverse the situation.

R+6 is going to win.  pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment_(military)

Comments

[Matthew]

Col: In light of this new Turkish/FSA zone separating the two Kurdish cantons, won't the FSA use this zone to attack Aleppo from the East?

[turcopolier]

Matthew

I have been concerned about that for some time. The Russian/Turkish agreement may preclude that. pl

[Matthew]

Col: In a prior post, you mentioned the different philosophies of the US Army and USMC on fortifications/outposts.

Could you recommend some good reading on that subject? Thank you.

[turcopolier]

Matthew
The marines here will have something to say but It has always been clear to me that the army is inclined to fight battles in which materiel plays a larger role. IMO USMC has always seemed averse to digging in enough in defensive situations. I don't have any references to give you. pl

[Peter]

I disagree on a small point about Turkey and their buffer zone. So far the Jarabalus "corridor" along the border with Turkey has served as THE supply line for ISIS. Weapons and supplies flow freely to the south, while oil shipments flow to the north. Why are we supposed to believe that because Turkey is moving their border further south to Bab that all of a sudden this will end? I see it as quite the opposite. By moving their border further south to Bab, Turkey is actually ensuring that ISIS will continue to have a dependable supply line from Turkey (this time it will go through the "moderate" zone they are creating). I understand that Erdogan and Putin may have agreed on Aleppo, but I see no indication that Erdogan has completely abandoned ISIS. I hope I'm wrong

[Don Hank]

My hat is off to you, Col. Thanks very much! Now the only thing that could go wrong with your expectations is Erdogan. He holds a lot of cards.

[turcopolier]

Don Hank

A lot of cards? Yes, but excessive cleverness and trickery could end up with them amounting to a dead man's hand. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

A US-Iran strategic settlement as well as US-Russia strategic settlement will pulverize many of those cards.

[Willy B]

I saw that picture at the time. I can't say for certain that it was taken in Aleppo, but I am certain it was for show because, as someone else points out, here, you can't feed 200,000 people (if there really are that many people in east Aleppo) with a few pickup truck loads of melons and bananas.

[Willy B]

Perhaps, but that's not way Obama was humiliated in China. He was humiliated in China because he has nothing to offer the rest of the world other than geopolitical confrontation and trade war. With the exception of certain interests in Europe, nobody wants that stuff anymore. What they want is the Silk Road to the future and its the Chinese who are offering that.

[Thomas]

"... I see no indication that Erdogan has completely abandoned ISIS."

He did the day three Islamic Staters blew themselves up in Ataturk Airport. Any jihadi group wanting Turkish assistance will have to receive the Brotherhood seal of approval and with it follow the instructions of Big Brother Tayyip, which is this war is coming to a close.

[Thomas]

"Yes, but excessive cleverness and trickery could end up with them amounting to a dead man's hand."

Considering the Sultan's neck was heading down the line to the spinal cranial slicer I would not see him trying anything with players that matter now that he has been given a reprieve. A turn against the Wahhabis so he can solidify the Brotherhood as the legitimate leaders of Sunni Islam would be the one card to play.

It was interesting watching Erdogan doing an interview for CCTV at the G-20 because he was very relaxed and carefree unlike the interview he gave them the previous year when he was somber and intensely focused. A little humility by apologizing to Russia over the SU-24 shootdown gained him so much that in the future he will want to maintain the straight and narrow path because he won't be given another chance if he does deviate.

[Castellio]

Do you see either of those strategic settlements happening?

[turcopolier]

JLD

"small fringe populations like SST" If you wish to denigrate this forum you don't belong here. pl

[elliot cohen]

With respect, the U.S. doesn't really have a dog in this fight and, therefore, how can we said to have sustained a defeat? We do have a commitment to the Kurds and given the history with this embattled people, it will be interesting to see how far we will oppose a fellow NATO member to protect them.
However hideous the Assad regime is, nerve gas, barrel bombs, hospitals targeted, etc. does anyone really think a rebel victory wouldn't be worse..Alawite genocide, revenge slaughter, the end of Christianity in Syria.
The rebellion has failed and the sooner the rebels see that, the less blood will be shed.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Nope...

[turcopolier]

elliot cohen

Are you professor Elliot Cohen? The US has been a major actor in the fight in Syria from the beginning and actually from before the rebellion began. Today Senator Bob Corker stated that the US has a major responsibility in Syria because our sitting ambassador in Syria BEFORE the rebellion traveled around the country encouraging the revolt. Do you think that the ambassador did this on his own authority? Corker is the Chairman of the senate Foreign Relations committee. pl

[elliot cohen]

Robert Ford was a loose cannon who went native. He purposefully embarrassed the administration and no longer is with the State Department. Major allies like Saudi Arabia and Turkey had and have far deeper interests in Syria than that of the US.
See Jeffrey Goldberg's interview in the Atlantic a couple of months ago with the President. He refers to the think tanks concerned with the Middle East as "enemy occupied territory"...all in the pay of the Saudis.
The only strategy the rebels have come up with is to have US intervention...and we'd wind up doing it alone.
I'm not Eliot A. Cohen

[jld]

Sorry, I just meant that SST readership isn't representative of any "majority" of people (alas...), do you think it is and some members could have something like "electoral success"?

[Harry]

What does R+6 stand for?

[Poul]

The Ramouseh neighbourhood is recaptured. West Aleppo has once again an open supply line.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/jihadist-defenses-crumble-syrian-army-seizes-key-aleppo-district/

[Poul]

The fire barrier was not 100%. No doubt for large vehicles but smaller ones could move in and out of Aleppo. Until the government forces regained some high ground around Qabliyah.

The East Aleppo rebels controlled parts of the Ramouseh neighbourhood prior to the offensive and launched a VBIED to spearhead the capture of Ramouseh. My guess would be that they used the same method to cross the road from the As Sukkar neighbourhood as the government forces do around the 1070 neighbourhood. Throwing up large earth walls to create a safe corridor.

[Poul]

Addentum:

One can actually see the earth walls on Google map between rebel controlled Ramouseh and Ar Sukkari

https://www.google.dk/maps/place/Aleppo,+Syrien/@36.1653327,37.1328109,316m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x152ff813b98135af:0x967e5e5fc542c32a!8m2!3d36.2021047!4d37.1342603

[turcopolier]

Poul

Ever heard of indirect fire? pl

[turcopolier]

Harry

Russia, SAA, Iranian forces, Hizbullah, Palestinian militia and the NDF. pl