The Trumpster

 

"Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said he remains convinced Clinton is ahead, somewhere in the range seen among the polling aggregators.

“There has been a closing that’s completely natural,” Sabato said. “Every four years, you have two national party conventions that produce a bounce of varying sizes. Clinton got a substantial bounce this year that lasted for a full month. It’s usually gone around Labor Day, and by then we’ll be where we should be, which is right around four to five points” for Clinton.

In a separate question in the Reuters/Ipsos poll that included alternative-party candidates, Clinton and Trump were tied at 39 percent. Seven percent supported Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, and two percent supported Jill Stein of the Green Party."  Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN1182PT

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Well, pilgrims...   Larry Sabato is the same fellah I watched on the TeeVee as he reported from a Republican Party convention in Richmond that George Allen, the tobacco chewing, spittoon using faux bubba who had just been nominated for governor of Vajinnyah would never be elected.  Never!  Well, fellow pilgrims, he was elected governor and then he was elected to the US Senate and would have been re-elected if he had possessed enough mother wit to abstain from calling a reporter a monkey because he was "a person of color."  Sooo ... I am unimpressed with the Sage of Charlottesville's opinion.

Actually, I think that HC's many faults as a candidate are steadily diminishing her chance of being president and commander in chief, as she correctly states the natures of the job.  I would now give her a 65% chance of winning.

Accordingly, this is a moment in which to consider the pluses and minuses of a notional Donald Trump in the White House:

Pluses.

IMO he is a risk averse entrepreneurial deal maker and closer.   He is loud mouthed but I would judge him to be timid.  I knew many such in my decade long business purgatory.   If you want to see his clones, watch "Shark Tank."  These monstrously wealthy people are all risk averse.  They are not in any way interested in backing concept companies, prototypes, and even functioning businesses unless they have thriving sales and low costs.  Trump is like that and would, IMO, avoid war, the ultimate risk.

He identifies with the United States as a country rather than identifying with a larger utopian world wide "market" under US domination.  This may have to do with his personal history in having emerged from recent immigrant beginnings.  From my POV people with a recent immigrant past tend to be like that.

IMO he would successfully re-negotiate the various trade deals that have cost the US dearly in jobs and manufacturing.

He would also IMO re-negotiate international defense agreements that have in their present form outlived their usefulness.

IMO once you get beneath the public rhetoric Trump's immigration policy would be much like Obama's.

Minuses.

He does not listen well and is really not looking for unsolicited  advice or disturbing information.

He is incurious and knows little of the world outside his narrow experience of deal making and project construction.

He knows little of the nature of government and the US constitutional limits on the power of the presidency.  IMO he would have to make someone like Pence de facto manager of the Executive Branch of the federal government because he could not make the machine run.

He does not seem to understand that in business terms there are no quantifiable profit centers in government, only cost centers.  Taxes and fiat money are not profit centers.  They are part of the costs inflicted by government.

His business experience does not include successful day to day management of a large and continuously functioning organization.  It is hard to imagine him managing General Electric for example.  I doubt that he has the persistence and self discipline to do that.

pl

Comments

[Will]

The Reagan immigration fix plan was dual, border control plus amnesty. they did the amnesty and failed to secure the border. it may be impossible to secure such a long border in all places. Maybe, the best sol'n is a union of Mexico and the USA. It would make for a shorter and more defensible southern border. Mexico may already have built a wall down there around Guatemala. I think the Col. explored a Union in one of his posts.

Trump is picking up on the Reagan failure and saying secure the border first and we'll talk about naturalization later. The fence/wall may simply not work, but it's worth a try. I learned that multiple rows of concertina wire and a minefield are worthless unless they're under observation and subject to fire. We're not East Germany, w're not going to shoot people trying to breach a wall. Don't know what the answer is, if there is any.

Trump likes to win. Yes, he's slow pay- no pay and a con artist. But, if elected, he'll make his mark. He already has on the GOP with the Thiel speech. He humulated the NeoCons by cutting Dubya down to size for not "keeping us safe." After all 9.11 happened on his watch. He's said we should get along with Russia. And he's not inside the loop that (wink) ISIS is there to help with Syrian regime change. He actually thinks it needs to be destroyed. Imagine that! For sure, many generals and admirals have tried to get his ear, but he has chosen to listen to Flynn! And that's important.

Is it any wonder that the Borg is scared shxtless he may win?

As far as effectiveness, he knows how to use a bully pulpit and shame those opposing him. He is a born master persuader and hypnotist. He wiped out a deep Republican field. He has paced his supporters and is in sympatico with them. That's the first part of Hypnosis. The second part is leading the subject to a greener pasture. And he can do that. He's not going to round up 11 million or 30 million people and deport them. There are too many firearms in this country to do such a thing, even if somebody wanted to do it. Plus, who would do all the work if the illegals went home? But for sure getting rid of the violent offenders is a no brainer.

Yes, Hillary is a good listener. But even after all the advice, she doesn't weigh it properly. She's an inveterate, incorrigible, and unrepentant war monger. She has no empathy. Lives mean nothing to her. She has a history from Serbia, Kosovo, Iraq, Libya, Ukraine, to Syria. She always chooses death and destruction. She has no Hukima or wisdom.

I think he'll get in, in fact, I'm going to put a bet at one of the sports betting sites that do politics. Just wish had done it sooner when he was really down in the polls.

[Tyler]

Sir,

Obama is not "deporting them". He is claiming that voluntary returns and NTAs are "deportations", which they are not. Illegals are going to these processing centers and getting a court date and taken to the bus stop in Phoenix to a "relative" in the country. They are not being deported. There is absolutely next to zero interior enforcement going on with ICE. They are zeroed in on illegal handbags and counterfeit NFL merch.

They built a wall in California across tougher terrain than the Sonoran. We put a man on the moon, we can put a wall across a desert. I can show you the wall they've already built across part of it.

Trump referencing Operation Wetback and Eisenhower tells me he realises that removing the "sea the fish swim in" by shutting off the spigot to sanctuary cities and reversing the Morton Memos will mean he won't have to report 20 million plus (the number is well above 11 million). Most of them will leave on their own.

[turcopolier]

Tyler

If Obama is not deporting them why are the illegals' advocates denouncing him as the "deportation president?" With regard to the barrier system, I have no doubt that we cam build one that a gnat would have a hard time getting through, but is it really a good idea? pl

[turcopolier]

Will

I did but nobody but me liked the idea. pl

[Tyler]

Sir,

The same reason BLM claims the police are racists shooting innocent black babies like Mike Brown: emotional rhetoric used as a lever to try and get more power.

Yes, a wall would,be a significant improvement. One can compare stats between where there is an Israeli style wall in California with the free for all that exists in Arizona and parts of Texas and see that a wall works.

[turcopolier]

james Loughton

The government of the US is not Trump's business. It cannot be run in that way. Trump runs his business on the basis of "whatever makes me money." If you want that you will see Grant's second administration, Teapot Dome, etc. pl

[turcopolier]

Tyler

I have no doubt that an Israeli style wall would work, but I am not an Israeli and do not want to see such a wall here. in re deportations - http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/04/politics/donald-trump-immigration-deportations-rudy-giuliani/index.html pl

[different clue]

Steve,

Possibly not. But I am sure that some of our job losses, perhaps a lot of them, were straight-up job exporting. And for what?

2 tiny little examples: Stanley Thermos bottles used to be made in Tennessee. I have a few-couple of those Tennessee Stanleys. Then they were outsourced to China. They still say "Stanley" but they also say "made in China" nowadays. The couple of new China "Stanleys" that I have looked at are lighter and "junkier" to the feel. Maybe they keep stuff just as war must as long in the field. I have not done the experiments.
Maybe they are just as tolerant to light accidental abuse in the field. Again, I have not done the research. But really now . . . were Americans too dumm to make a Stanley?

Or Etch-A-Sketch. Who here remembers Etch-A-Sketch? I had one as a child. They were made by Ohio Arts somewhere in Ohio. I remember reading that Ohio Arts in Ohio was profitable till the day it was murdered. It just wasn't quite profitable "enough". So somebody bought Ohio Arts and outsourced the Etch-A-Sketch to China. Is the China Etch-A-Sketch as good? Better? Less good? I really don't know. But once again . . . after decades of making Etch-A-Sketches in Ohio, are Americans suddenly too dumm to make an Etch-A-Sketch?

I wonder how many other jobs were straight-up exported from America to wherever in 10,000 separate little batches of a few to a few hundred jobs apiece as America's "Mittelstand"-sized companies were systematically dismantled in America and the parts and pieces systematically re-mantled in Free Trade-istan?

[The Twisted Genius]

I don't see any reason to believe a word Trump says about immigration. It's all a line of bullshit used to mobilize a solid base. In essence, he takes the alt-right crowd and the white supremacists as gullible rubes easily manipulated by his over the top rhetoric. He has no history of abstaining from using immigrants, legal or illegal, to pursue his goals of money and notoriety. See how easily he switched from vigorously pursuing the deportation of all illegal immigrants to just pursuing the criminal element. He hides this retreat behind his bombastic rhetoric so as not to disappoint his true believers. Even this rhetorical retreat is only for the purpose of garnering more votes among the mainstream Republicans. I have no doubt he would back off his big, beautiful wall when Mexico fails to dole out the pesos to pay for it.

Having vented my spleen sufficiently, I have to say there is nothing really wrong with Trump's current stated immigration policy. Secure the border. There's probably better way than a 2,000 mile long 30 to 60foot high wall, but there should be little sensible opposition to the general principle of secure borders. Deporting the criminal element. Good. Rigorous backround checks for refugees, we already do that. The one other thing I wish he would emphasize is coming down hard on businesses that employ illegal aliens. Removing the incentive of employment from illegal immigrants, including those who overstay their visas, would bring about a massive wave of self-deportation. There are over a million Canucks and Brits here illegally, having overstayed their visas. They're probably taking jobs that Americans would do. Besides, getting all those damned Québécois off the Adirondack Northway would be a good thing.

[different clue]

One wonders what she listens "for" when she listens great, and how she listens great. Is she listening to get broadly and deeply informed about things and stuff? Or is she calculating who can be which chess piece in the ongoing game, who might become an opponent, who might be trouble, who is a good little doggie and a bad little doggie, who might be a future whistleblower?

To what ends does she apply her skills of great listening?

[Tyler]

Sir,

And I counter with: http://www.breitbart.com/video/2016/09/04/pence-trump-immigration-plan-no-amnesty-no-path-legalization/

We are arguing semantics though. "Mass deportations" is a phrase vulnerable to Holocaust and Ellis Island Schmaltz with the Left framing the issue as Poor Migrant Border Crossers having their doors kicked in by tactical leather wearing deportation agents.

Enforcing the law likely focus tested better.

You would want that wall if you saw some of the human monsters walking across the desert. Raping the very old or very young seems to be a popular past time in Old Mexico, to say nothing of those killed by illegal aliens.

[Eric Newhill]

Sir, I have seen with my own two eyes the border crossings at Lukeville and Sonoita, AZ where, after the official crossing closes for the night, people are coming over, one after another, all night long, through holes in the fence that are maybe 100 yards at most from the official crossing. Some individuals came over with backpacks and returned without them later in the night. This was 25 years ago, maybe things have changed. If not, surely we can do better than that.

Vast tracks of the Sonoran Desert, which I know very well having worked for the BLM out of the Tucson station, don't need a wall because they are not crossable by ordinary humans. I have found the skeletons in the desert (some with 50lbs packs of cannabis or other narco contraband). Lawrence of Arabia would find them challenging. Trump has alluded to this. Rather, strategically located sections of wall would do the trick.

[steve g]

To misquote Ross Perot, "that giant sucking
sound " you hear is the helium escaping from
the blimp Hilldenberg as it circles the air field
at Lakehurst New Jersey. The ignition is and
will be self inflicted.

[Fred]

Edward,

I'm sure the House and Senate will kneel in submission to Hilary.

[Fred]

Col.,

Helping Mexico tackle the drug cartels certainly can't hurt in reducing immigration to the US.

[scott s.]

I could see a Trump presidency coming out sort of like John Tyler AKA "His Accidency". Tyler was a nominal Whig (WINO?) and pretty much governed against his party in the Congress. The Whigs were subsequently frozen out of the White House until another nominal Whig, Taylor was elected (and he also flirted with "third way" politics). Though in Taylor's case of course he was replaced by party man VP Filmore (maybe a precedent for Pence?) Unfortunately for Filmore he kind of vacillated on running in his own name which in part resulted in Webster holding onto significant delegates in the 52 convention and eventually neither got the nomination, rather the third nominal Whig candidate Scott.

Which brings up Filmore's 56 run. He seems to have had little interest in the slavery question, or at least was more interested in running a national campaign built around old-Whig values. So he attempted to use nativism (anti-immigration?) as a unifying national issue via an "American" Party designed to co-opt the Know Nothing movement.

[turcopolier]

Eric Newhill

"If not, surely we can do better than that." Did I say we should not do better? Bave you been to places like Bethlehem in the West Bank where a forty foot masonry barrier runs through the center of the town. It is there because the Israelis consider themselves to be at war with the Palestinian people. are we at war with the Mexican people? pl

[turcopolier]

Tyler

Lay off the bullshit about monsters walking across the desert. I listened to what Giuliani said today and Pence hasn't gotten the word yet. pl

[different clue]

Edward Amame,

I don't know much about Mitch McConnell's career or approach to politics.
I gather he is thought of as a creditable political strategist ( as against a mere strategerist) and a creditable political tactician ( as against a mere tacktickerician).

With that in mind, I found his recent announcement ( as described on the Naked Capitalism blog) that TTP would NOT be considered or taken up unTIL the NEXT Congress was fully seated and under way. I wonder if this is a political chess gambit on his part to see who else responds in a tag-team way and makes a supportive move. Naked Capitalism noted with pleasure that Senator Sanders immediately voiced strong support for Majority Leader McConnell's decision to keep TTP OFF the Floor until the NEXT Congress. We already know that Davos Man Hillary and Davos Man Kaine support TTP and if she ( and/or then he) becomes President, She and/or then he will finesse their way to pretending that certain little tweaks have been performed on TTP such that it is now fit to sign as soon as Congress passes it. Whereas Trump might very well be as opposed to TTP as he now claims he is.

One wonders if McConnell is signaling to us Bitter Berners and other Free Trade Treason opponents that a President Trump means " bye bye TPP".
One wonders if McConnell is sending signals meant to invite us to vote for Trump in order to keep TPP Clinton and TPP Kaine out of the White House.

[Phil Cattar]

James,Your statement brought to my mind two things I had read or heard years ago.Andrew Carnegie once said that he he lost all of his resources ,capital,etc,but kept his people, he would get all that he had lost back in a few years...................James Reston wrote a column in the "Washington Post" as Jimmy Carter was leaving office and said the main reason Carter failed was that He could not bring himself to delegate.Reston wrote that Carter had to wash and dry every dish himself.................Ive always suspected that Trump was an excellent delegator.However that is in the world he knows.Im not so sure about in this new world he is trying to enter.............His children certainly seem to be sharp.

[Green Zone Café]

I don't think Johnson and Weld would bomb Iran or beef with Russia like Hillary will.

Trump? He has good instincts but could get coopted by the neocons like Bolton.

[Fred]

dc,

We should as Lady Rothschild what she was listening for in the Hamptons this weekend. She sure wasn't listening to the folks in Louisiana or the unemployed. I suspect the crowd was doing a their own version of "You're so vain" - because they think the campaign is all about them....

[Fred]

steve g,

The high pitched whining from the NE is from all that escaping helium. "How dare a Republican talk about black unemployment, how dare he talk about the black family!" The very flammable hydrogen induced explosions are the five dead cops in Dallas and a number of their now deceased compatriots in other cities. The race based agit-prop that is BLM shows no sign of deflating.

[Tyler]

Sir,

Why? They're not just some poor guy looking for a job picking berries. I worked on a guy who was wanted for murder in California by hacking two people to death with a machete.

It's not just that, but it keeps the cartels from doing things like dumping a mom and kids in the middle of nowhere so we pull resources to go rescue them so they can run dope or guns or whatever across.

A wall would prevent a lot of this human misery I've gotta deal with.

[Fred]

DC,

I believe a more appropriate example would be Apple's iphone. The components are made by subcontractor Foxconn in China with what was essentially slave labor. That allowed St. Steve Jobs to become a billionaire. You should look up his wife and her charitable activities. Advocating livable wages for makers of Apple products doesn't seem to be one of them.