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12 September 2016

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Barish

In the context of the agreement as written vs. its implementation? Seems that Russia has a far better grip on/mutual understanding with its allies as regards implementing it than US does on its unicorns. The aforementioned unicorn rejection of it and siding with Nusra/AQ done by the unicorns around the 15th anniversary of 9/11 speaks volumes as to how little leverage the US has here, and it rightly should be scandalized far and wide - of course, the MSM prefers somehow not doing so.

It's interesting to note that, belatedly, KSA officially endorsed the ceasefire, worded as follows:

http://www.mofa.gov.sa/sites/mofaen/ServicesAndInformation/news/MinistryNews/Pages/ArticleID2016913222956932.aspx

"Official Source: Saudi Arabia Is Following with Interest the Implementation of Temporary Cease-Fire in Syria
Last updated: 9/13/2016 10:31 PM

An official source at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is following with interest the implementation of the temporary cease-fire in Syria.

The official source expressed the Kingdom's welcoming of this truce, which will contribute to relieving the humanitarian suffering of brethren Syrian people.

The official source added that the Kingdom stresses the importance of abiding by this truce by Bashar Al-Asad's regime and his allies, and that this truce would as well lead to the resumption of the political process in Syria on the basis of Geneva I declaration and Security Council resolution 2254, which would lead to the peaceful transition of power."

Whether this agreement was just a play-act by Kerry to win time and fill headlines with US-goodwill whose failure can then be blamed on RU/Damascus/Iran by MSM as per usual remains to be seen. Or, as you put it in the earlier assessment on the unicorn failure at Aleppo, it may be a "face-saving compromise" where Obama's administration at long last has the good grace to bow out and let RU and allies clean up the contra-mess that is the unicorns, if nothing else. We'll have to wait until Monday to see what happens further.

alba etie

Barish
Wonder what we would be looking at if Bushcheney had occupied Riyahd instead of Baghdad ?

Barish

Perhaps the Two Holy Mosques would then have ended up in Jordanian hands - Hashemites being direct descendants of the Prophet and having had claim on those prior to Saudi conquest and all that -, with the rest of KSA-territory being split up among various principalities and other neighbouring states.

Probably would still have been a mess made worse for the ineptitude of that administration. Then again, given the Saudi's display of military "might"(/incompetence) vs. its southern neighbour just now, we might see if not a breakup a few changes to their borders yet.

Ghostship

This doesn't look good:
Militant Groups Redeploy Units to Aleppo’s Northwest amid Ceasefire in Syria
Terrorist groups have begun re-deploying their units to Kafr Hamra village Northwest of Aleppo city amid nationwide ceasefire in Syria, a source in the city said on Thursday.
"Terrorists are assembling a lot of fighters in Kafr Hamra. According to our data, they are forming assault groups," said the source, Ria Novosti reported.
According to the source, additional units were redeployed from Idlib province to Aleppo city.
"We do not know yet where the terrorists plan to strike, but it is very likely that they will try to block Castillo road, which is the city's Northern supply route," the source added.

I doubt the rebels are going to block the Castillo Road, I think it's far more likely that they're looking to retake the Castillo Road after the SAA have withdrawn their heavy weapons. I hope the Russian marines are ready for them.
Map showing Kafr Hamra and Castillo Road:
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.245831&lon=37.111816&z=13&m=b
WARNiNG - the link is to the article on an Iranian website
http://en.alalam.ir/news/1862002

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