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26 September 2016

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Peter

But we've also learned that the jihadist forces are losing the war, even with all of that support from the US and Israel. How formidable will they be if that support is gone?

Here is one possible long-term outcome for Israel: The jihadist forces successfully overthrow Assad, and a black flag is raised in Damascus. These groups then start turning their attention toward Israel. Israel being under attack by jihadist forces in Syria would provide the PERFECT excuse for a US no-fly zone and possible ground war to "defend" those poor Israelis. Maybe another opportunity for Israel to grab more land in the Golan Heights and more. I think the zionists see opportunities and an enemy they can confidently handle.

Generalfeldmarschall von Hindenburg

It seems to me Israel suffers the same astronomical hubris the US does. They don't mind arming these kinds of groups and individuals because they think, 'we made them. we can break them when necessary. Maybe. Nobody outside blogs like this that follow political and military affairs in detail are even raising a hue and cry about it. The Borg Hive Media has switched seamlessly from Al Quada to ISIS to now Russia being the Great Satan. The Mighty Wurlitzer plays on. I talk to people (a lot of our local grandees in Portland OR FWIW) all day about this stuff and they mumble about how we need to watch out for Russia. It's surreal. I'm going back and re-reading Kafka and Catch-22 just so I can remember it's not just me suffering from WTF-itis.

Ulenspiegel

"I booked that under: did the German's ever had a different chancellor then Merkel? North Stream, Russia, Schröder, Putin?"

The 2011 part of Nordstream plus the pipelines through Ukraine are more than sufficient to supply Germany with NG from Russia.

Therefore, if Merkel wanted to screw Russia and if she trusted the guys in Kiew she would delay the expansion of Nord Stream, this would leave Russia in the undesirable situation it was before, i.e. could be blackmailed by Ukraine.

The expansion, i.e. adding EXCESS capacity, means that Merkel does not consider the Ukrainian government trustworthy and may simply fear that Germany would be blackmailed too. This new capacity will give of course Russia real leverage against Ukraine in 2018.

LeaNder

traces:

https://books.google.de/books?id=F4GSBQAAQBAJ&pg=PA91&lpg=PA91&dq=coalition+of+the+unwilling+Schroeder+Putin&source=bl&ots=IR3Bv9lSqj&sig=FR0NSyynqvn3EEKrI7P9lnG__Zc&hl=de&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwihkNTI_q_PAhVEiRoKHc-jBBAQ6AEIJjAA#v=onepage&q=coalition%20of%20the%20unwilling%20Schroeder%20Putin&f=false

turcopolier

Peter

Are Hizbullah and Hamas not threats to Israel? Neither of them poses a threat of invasion. pl

LeaNder

Ulenspiegel, strictly the Ukrainian context we witness surfacing more prominently now for me had some type of aura, although a very very hidden one in one of the bigger recent scandals "cum" privatization; former public but then privat & privat partnerships, if I may. ... Ok public went privat and then went back to public, going undercover for one Euro in a buisness account in Wiesbaden for some time.

Babak Makkinejad

"Israel's Arab neighbors will see an alternative to American leadership."

Not going to happen - not to Jordan (rented and paid for), and not to Egypt (rented and paid for).

Gulfies have no alternative to US either.

Peter

Hezbollah and Hamas are definitely threats, and I was mistaken if I suggested otherwise. I was referring primarily to AlQaeda and it's different brands in Syria. Israeli policy seems to suggest that they actually believe a salafist principality in Syria is to their own benefit. Perhaps that is due to their plans for expansion in the Golan region and the many excuses they would have if the head choppers were launching attacks from there. Maybe they see the Syrian state as a roadblock to that goal. For the record, I believe they are sorely mistaken with this policy as well, but THEY think it makes sense.

turcopolier

Babak

Saudi Arabia and the other Arab states can always turn massively to China and Russia. Don't overestimate the level of their dependency on the US. I sense a certain Iranian bias there. pl

Thomas

"Is there not one Good Man left in our government."

No they have been successfully purged starting in 92.

Tom

As nobody mentioned it yet I might add a little about Todenhöfer. He was in the Eighties a member of the parliament for the conservaties, a mighty antisoviet fire eater and hated by all leftists. In contrast to other cold warriors he had real guts and travelled several times to Afghanistan and even took part in the fighting. That is why he is accepted by all kinds of Jihadis and that is why he is the only foreign journalist that I am aware of who is can freely with Al-Nusra. He genuinely understands the mindset of mideastern people and that is why he was so vehemently opposed to US politics after 9/11. I genuinely admire him although I don´t always agree with his policies. By the way he is 76 and he is travelling with his son.
There have lately been attempts at character assassination in the German press and I am pretty sure there is more to come.

FkDahl

To what degree do you think Golan plays into this? A decade or so ago there was actual discussion in Israel to return Golan as part of a peace deal, but that was before oil and gas riches under it became widely known, to me at least. I can see Israel negotiating with with an Assad type figure but never with a bunch of jihadists. For those who want to take the return of Golan off the table, Assad has to go and the jihadists reign.
I suspect the political leadership in Israel believe they can manage the jihadists, which lacking industry and without a strong state sponsor will be relatively weak in terms of supply or moderns weapons and with limited ability to pose more than a nuisance.

Valissa

Thanks for the link on Clinton emails and what they showed about reasons for US involvement in Libya and Syria. Unlike so many articles on her email scandal that ramble on and on, this was a relatively short piece with a limited focus on essentials. Much appreciated!

Chris Chuba

I don't know if this is the right thread for this but it was a very interesting Southfront article on the attrition being suffered by the Jihadi's around Aleppo.
https://southfront.org/open-fracture-in-syria-war/

It is worth savoring but since it is a long article I cannot paraphrase it, I can only give a 'teaser'. There is much more content then the snippets that I'll post here.
1. It describes the declining revenue of ISIS and their current relationship with the populations under their control and the state of their current manpower.
2. It describes the sorry state of Al Nusra and their assorted allies including their current level of support from outside sponsors and recent losses.

teaser...
Financial support of Syrian militants from Bahrain has stopped. Pro-Saudi groups suffered heavy losses in the recent battle in Aleppo. Experts estimate that up to half of their composition (between 7,000 and 8,000 fighters) was lost; they were either killed, wounded, captured or deserted. ‘Jabhat Fatah al-Sham’ lost control over a large group of Jordanians. Most foreigners in its ranks are Tunisians (3,000 fighters). But that was before the main battle for Aleppo, which formed the backbone of the coming Tunisians.

mike allen

Who is Abu el-Ezz is a key question here. Has anyone ever heard of him before this interview? He looks more like the pillsbury doughboy than a jihadi, even with the grenade clipped to his chest. Most al-Nusra guys do not hide their faces. And didn't al Nusra change their organization name to 'Jabhat Fath Al Sham' back in July?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jabhat_Fateh_al-Sham

Todenhofer says Abu el-Ezz is the commander of al Nusra? I thought the leader of al Nusra was Ahmed Hussein al-Shar’a AKA al-Golani (sometimes spelled Jolani or Julani or Joulani) originally from the Golan heights. Have I missed his assassination by smart bomb? He was reportedly still alive just ten days or so ago when he accused the Americans of placing themselves alongside Russia, Iran, and the Syrian regime of Assad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H--8_m3ATxQ

Ezz does not appear to be a common Arabic name as far as my limited knowledge goes. There are some Egyptians named Ezz that I have read of. Any Arabic experts here?

steve

Among other things, the fact that Israel (and the US) spurned Assad's normalization overtures of 7 or 8 years ago imo proves your point of Israel's unwillingness to engage in reality.

Babak Makkinejad

Ezz al Din, perhaps?

A diminutive/contraction.

Babak Makkinejad

They have been dependent on US for more than 80 years; it is difficult for me to envision they ditching US and shopping themselves to China or Russia.

US and her contractual allies - France, UK, Australia, New Zealand are providing round-the-clock security for the Gulfies in and around the Persian Gulf.

It is inconceivable for me that China or Russia could or would be a replacement for all those Western men, airplanes and naval vessels.

Lastly, as you likely know, Arabs favor voluptuous - preferably blonde - women; that would be yet another strike against China.

mike allen

Thanks Babak -

I have seen "Izz al Din", which is said to mean "Glory of the Faith". So does Abu al-Ezz translate to Father of Glory?

Anna

If only... The Dutch Board (along with Ukraine et al) came to conclusion that Russia is to blame for the downing the MH17. Meanwhile, the US adamantly refuses to provide the pertinent satellite images; therefore the Dutch National Detective Force has used the images and revelations of Eliot Higgins (an expert in selling the ladies underwear: http://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/06/medias-beloved-expert-higgins-wrong-again-and-again-and-again.html).
Higgins, for his consistent anti-Russian attitude, has become a darling of Atlantic Council that elevated Higgins to a status of "Senior Fellow, Digital Forensic Research Lab, Future Europe Initiative." Messieurs Frederick Kempe, President and CEO of Atlantic Council, and Damon M. Wilson, Executive Vice President of AC, are perfectly OK with becoming a laughing stock thanks to their servile (pro-presstituting) stance.
Mr. Wilbert Paulissen, the head of the Dutch National Detective Force has presented his verdict by using the data coming from "the internet and Ukraine’s secret services." https://www.ft.com/content/79e08d7e-8572-11e6-a29c-6e7d9515ad15
The utilized "internet data" was most likely a Mr. Higgins' production that was debunked by professional investigators: https://consortiumnews.com/2015/05/26/more-video-fakery-on-mh-17/
Wikispooks comment:
"Higgins had stumbled into a potentially profitable (in terms of media exposure and possibly pledged funding) publishing venture. ... His output has been nothing if not consistent, viz: Consistent with what one would expect from promoters of the Anglo-US-NATO Official Narratives of geo-politics and the War on Terror, but done in a slipshod and blatantly partisan fashion that those who quote him (the Commercially-controlled media) are wary of claiming their own; which is to say in a way which is quotable but can not be made attributable to those who ultimately control the narrative - ie the Spooks.
The Syrian observatory of Human rights serves an analgous purpose."
Mr. Wilbert Paulissen should have been aware of the quality of Higgins' data.

turcopolier

mike allen

It probably means - someone who is the father of someone named Izz al-din. That is a typical naming construction in Arabic. pl

Anna

Israel can count on the unquestionable support from the US plutocracy in case the victorious "moderate" fighters came to dominate Syria. The "moderates" and other anti-Assad opposition forces (gravitating to Al Qaeda) make a motley bunch that is no match to the US military might. And yet, the generous supply of the jihadis opposition with advanced weaponry delivered to the Middle East by the "coalition of the willing" (US, EU, Israel, Turkey, Golfies) is going to create a tremendous problem in the region when the skilled and well-armed fighters decide to turn on the infidel "suppliers." The ziocon and Israeli supremacists are not able to think forward about the details of their predatory activities in the Middle East.
In light of the refugee-migrant crisis in EU, we should expect a vigorous opposition to EU involvement in other "humanitarian" interventions. The ugly Sarkozy was certainly very pro-active when attacking the previously prosperous Libya. Today Libya is in ruin; it suffered a massive deaths of civilian population, and it became a nest of the fanatical jihadis. For now, Sarkozy counts on the pliable presstituting media that should have raised already a question of his personal responsibility for the trashed cities of France. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1xMpGznUuA

Anna

"...they [Israelis] are obsessive about Iran and Hezbollah. That is, their thinking is not entirely rational when it comes to anything involving those particular groups."
Agree. This is the root of the enormous problem that the wold is facing today: We are drawn into a clash of civilizations, which originates to large degree in the visceral tribal hatred. The "chosen" - with their irrational aggressiveness towards Iran and their childish desire for mythical Eretz Israel (territorially expansive) - could push the whole western world into the abyss.

mike allen

Thanks Colonel

turcopolier

mike allen
Ah! A chance to show off. A name like this is a kind of patronymic nickname. In Arabic grammar it is called an idafa (noun-noun construct in English approximation). In an idafa the first term "abu" (father) is "possessed" grammatically by the second "'izz al-din" (fervent of faith) so the whole thing means "father of a fervently faithful one." Another example of an idafa would be bab(door)al-beit (house) meaning(door of the house). Jus to make it interesting "bab beit"without the specifying article "al" (the) would mean "door of a house". fun, eh! BTW the same man would also have a non-patronymic name like Hassan ibn (son - of since this is also an idafa) Ibrahim signifying that his name is Hassan and his father was named Ibrahim. In classical days to this latter name would have been addended a descriptor naming the place of origin of the family, something interesting about the family, etc. So. Hassan ibn Ibrahim al- (the again) Maghrabi (the Moroccan) Similarly "Sa'iid "eid milad" means Happy birthday! Whilst "Sa'iid eid al-milad" means Happy onTHE birthday I.e. Happy Christmas. Want to do some more Arabic grammar? It is fascinating." pl

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